行业研究报告哪里找-PDF版-三个皮匠报告 (2023)

Socialinsider ：2023年社交媒体行业基准研究报告（英文版）（24页）.pdf

Social Media IndustryBenchmarks Study2023 EditionTimeframe:Jan 2022-December 2022Sample:Socialinsider data worldwideBelow youll discover a couple of social mediaengagement benchmarks and trends that will help youbetter understand the social media landscape in 2023TikToks average engagement rate-calculated by followers-is4.25%,while the engagement rate by views is 5.10%.Instagram records an average engagement rate of 0.60%,thatscontinuously decreasing.Reels represent the best-performing content type onInstagram,generating double the engagement of the otherpost formats.Overall,Facebooks engagement rate is located at an averageof 0.15%.Key engagement takeawaysSocial media engagement benchmarks4.25%Even if TikTok is the mostengaging social media platform,from year to year,it registerssignificant drops in engagement.Average TikTok engagement rate(by followers)Timeframe:Jan 2022December 2022Sample:Socialinsider data worldwide TikTokInstagramFacebookTwitter4.25%0.60%0.15%0.05%Social media engagement rates evolution28spite being the most engagingsocial platform,TikToksengagement is slowly decreasingyear over year.YoY engagement rate decreaseon TikTokTimeframe:Jan 2022December 2022Sample:Socialinsider data worldwide TikTokInstagramFacebookTwitterMost engaging industries on TikTok7.69%This is the most engagingindustry on TikTok at themoment.The FMCG-Beverages TikTokaverage engagement rateTimeframe:Jan 2022December 2022Sample:Socialinsider data worldwide 7.69%6.92%5.93%5.78%5.23%4.76%4.55%4.01%3.74%3.48%3.22%2.51%Most engaging industries on Instagram0.96%This is the most engagingindustry on Instagram at themoment.The FMCG-Food industrysaverage Instagram engagementrateTimeframe:Jan 2022December 2022Sample:Socialinsider data worldwide 0.96%0.94%0.92%0.91%0.89%0.78%0.78%0.70%0.49%0.44%0.42%0.36%Instagram content engagement0.93%Reels make for the mostengaging content type onInstagram.Instagram Reels averageengagement rateTimeframe:Jan 2022December 2022Sample:Socialinsider data worldwide 0.93%0.47%0.47%0.43%Most engaging industries on Facebook0.46%This is the most engagingindustry on Facebook at themoment.The FMCG-Beverages industrysaverage Facebook engagementrateTimeframe:Jan 2022December 2022Sample:Socialinsider data worldwide Facebook content engagement0.18%Status posts represent the best-performing content type onFacebook,alongside videos.Average engagement rate forstatus posts on FacebookTimeframe:Jan 2022December 2022Sample:Socialinsider data worldwide 0.18%0.11%0.15%0.17%0.09%Most engaging industries on Twitter0.10%This is the most engagingindustry on Twitter at themoment.The Arts&Crafts industryaverage Twitter engagementrateTimeframe:Jan 2022December 2022Sample:Socialinsider data worldwide Airlines5.78%Instagram engagement rate:0.94cebook engagement rate:0.23%Twitter engagement rate:0.01%Average engagement rate onTikTokTimeframe:Jan 2022December 2022Sample:Socialinsider data worldwide TikTokInstagramFacebookTwitterArts&Crafts3.22%Instagram engagement rate:0.92cebook engagement rate:0.20%Twitter engagement rate:0.10%Average engagement rate onTikTokTimeframe:Jan 2022December 2022Sample:Socialinsider data worldwide TikTokInstagramFacebookTwitterAutomotive4.55%Instagram engagement rate:0.78cebook engagement rate:0.26%Twitter engagement rate:0.06%Average engagement rate onTikTokTimeframe:Jan 2022December 2022Sample:Socialinsider data worldwide TikTokInstagramFacebookTwitterBeauty3.48%Instagram engagement rate:0.44cebook engagement rate:0.14%Twitter engagement rate:0.05%Average engagement rate onTikTokTimeframe:Jan 2022December 2022Sample:Socialinsider data worldwide TikTokInstagramFacebookTwitterFMCG-Beverages3.48%Instagram engagement rate:0.89cebook engagement rate:0.42%Twitter engagement rate:0.08%Average engagement rate onTikTokTimeframe:Jan 2022December 2022Sample:Socialinsider data worldwide TikTokInstagramFacebookTwitterFashion2.51%Instagram engagement rate:0.36cebook engagement rate:0.05%Twitter engagement rate:0.07%Average engagement rate onTikTokTimeframe:Jan 2022December 2022Sample:Socialinsider data worldwide TikTokInstagramFacebookTwitterFMCG-Food6.92%Instagram engagement rate:0.96cebook engagement rate:0.38%Twitter engagement rate:0.08%Average engagement rate onTikTokTimeframe:Jan 2022December 2022Sample:Socialinsider data worldwide TikTokInstagramFacebookTwitterHome&Living 4.76%Instagram engagement rate:0.49cebook engagement rate:0.16%Twitter engagement rate:0.08%Average engagement rate onTikTokTimeframe:Jan 2022December 2022Sample:Socialinsider data worldwide TikTokInstagramFacebookTwitterJewelry4.01%Instagram engagement rate:0.42cebook engagement rate:0.09%Twitter engagement rate:0.09%Average engagement rate onTikTokTimeframe:Jan 2022December 2022Sample:Socialinsider data worldwide TikTokInstagramFacebookTwitterMagazines&Journals5.93%Instagram engagement rate:0.70cebook engagement rate:0.07%Twitter engagement rate:0.02%Average engagement rate onTikTokTimeframe:Jan 2022December 2022Sample:Socialinsider data worldwide TikTokInstagramFacebookTwitterMedia Industry3.74%Instagram engagement rate:0.78cebook engagement rate:0.11%Twitter engagement rate:0.03%Average engagement rate onTikTokTimeframe:Jan 2022December 2022Sample:Socialinsider data worldwide TikTokInstagramFacebookTwitterTravel5.23%Instagram engagement rate:0.91cebook engagement rate:0.19%Twitter engagement rate:0.04%Average engagement rate onTikTokTimeframe:Jan 2022December 2022Sample:Socialinsider data worldwide TikTokInstagramFacebookTwitterMethodologyFacebook engagement rate per post(by followers)Facebook engagement rate per post is calculatedas the sum of reactions,comments and shares onthe post divided by the total number of fans thatpage has.The result is then multiplied by 100.Instagram engagement rate per post(by followers)Instagram engagement rate per post is calculated asthe sum of likes and comments on the post dividedby the total number of followers that profile has.The result is then multiplied by 100.Twitter engagement rate per post(by followers)Twitter engagement rate per post is calculated asthe sum of likes and Retweets received on the Tweetdivided by the total number of followers that profilehas.The result is then multiplied by 100.TikTok engagement rate per post(byfollowers)TikTok engagement rate is calculated as the sum oflikes,comments,and shares on the post divided bythe total number of followers that the profile has.The result is then multiplied by 100.Improve your socialmedia strategy withSocialinsider All in one place for competitor researchand social media analytics Ready to download social media reports Review the performance of certain socialpostsBook a demo

17人已浏览 2023-03-29 24页 5星级

德勤：未来价值转移-赋能普惠和可持续金融服务（2023）（英文版）（11页）.pdf

The future of value transfer Empowering inclusive and sustainable financial services The future of value transfer|Empowering inclusive and sustainable financial services 2Judging by recent developments and basic human nature,the profit motive rather than policy is likely to get us further towards the goal of universal financial inclusion.As technology makes providing financial services to underserved segments potentially less risky and more cost-effective,businesses will naturally seek to extend their reach to untapped segments.Financial inclusion promotes sustainability in two ways.First,it helps advance the accepted social goals of broadening financial access,helping to alleviate poverty and bolstering overall economic growth in other words,it supports sustainable development.1 Second,for incumbent or new providers of financial services,it paves the way for sustained growth by offering an alternative to competing in the saturated red ocean of premium segments,where profit margins continue to succumb to competitive pressure.2But beyond the impetus provided by purpose and profit,the evolving nature of future value webs where businesses derive value from empowering consumers will make the spread of inclusion self-perpetuating.The future of value transfer|Empowering inclusive and sustainable financial services 3Technology is the start of the solutionThe ongoing shift of economic activity to digital ecosystems,along with the continued spread of technology,will inexorably bring access to formal financial services to the 1.7 billion adults worldwide who still live without them.3 The reasons for this exclusion are well understood and documented.They include cost,physical distance from a service provider,lack of necessary identity documentation and credit histories,and a shortfall in financial literacy,not to mention the fact that many people,especially in less developed countries,have not developed trust in banks,or indeed any financial institution.4 Apart from this last point,the advances we see in technology are providing efficient solutions to the majority of these challenges.There has been much said about how mobile and cloud-based financial services are expanding financial inclusion on an“epic”scale.5 AI and data analytics have already been deployed to assess the creditworthiness,needs and preferences of customers and businesses based on their behaviour on various platforms,enabling financial services to be provided to those who previously could not be feasibly served.6 Moreover,digital identity such as Indias Aadhar system,which covers 1.2 billion citizens is one clear solution to the documentation challenge;although more than a billion people globally still need to be provided a formal and universally accepted proof of identity.7 Value webs are inclusion enginesFuture value webs will augment technologys ability to boost inclusion with their expanded concept of digital identity,which is not merely a means of validation,but also encapsulates the value of data generated by activity.That,combined with the possibility for digitally enabled fractional ownership,will pave the way to support more inclusive wealth accumulation albeit on a phased basis,as we patiently wait for legal and regulatory regimes to accommodate the inevitable.Businesses will need to adapt their operating and business models to support,and profit from,this new paradigm.As detailed in previous articles in this series covering the Future of Value Transfer,many existing products,solutions and operating models may become irrelevant as the approach to selling moves from the push of technology-enabled hyper-personalisation to the pull of customer empowerment.A world where customers feel not only that they are in control,but also have the power to create and share in the value from their own choices.Digitized value webs will create ubiquitous,frictionless platforms to trade goods,services and other value between people and businesses without the need for physical cash,encouraging trade,enhancing incomes and expanding growth.The future of value transfer|Empowering inclusive and sustainable financial services 4Inclusion will extend from everyone to everything In a world where we expect there will be representations of almost any good or service in the form of digital identities and digital presence,the way is clear for a bewildering array of new financial services and value transfer opportunities.At present,traditional growth in the financial services industry happens through a bespoke set of offerings largely delivered on a point-to-point and individual segment basis.We expect this will change,however,with the increasing spread of value webs that are based on many-to-many relationships,and where financial services are supplied on a modular basis by a diverse assortment of providers.Take the emergence of the so-called“Super Apps,”where e-commerce,food delivery,mobility,ridesharing,goods delivery and logistics are combined with retail and merchant financial services.It will be increasingly difficult to offer single components of a value web unless those services and components are fundamentally differentiated combining price,experience and access to capital.Sustainability and exponential growth of Profit alongside PurposeAs the stage is set to potentially accomplish near universal financial inclusion,we believe that with thoughtful design,growth in participation should become self-perpetuating.Increasing levels of knowledge,familiarity and trust among the newly financially included will spread through social media platforms which form a valuable component of value webs to those who remain on the fringes.As more people and businesses are provided with an ever-expanding array of offerings,greater profits among providers should lead to more pervasive efforts to tap into any remaining underserved segments,as well as to carve out new niches.This will lead to a virtuous circle of empowerment that increases inclusion while simultaneously expanding the scope of what we define as inclusion.Importantly it makes possible a new breed of sustainable business models focused on the new market dynamic of profitable and equitable financial services inclusion.The technology-enabled democratisation of wealth is simultaneously creating a critical mass of underserved and growing high net worth and middle-class wealth segments that will not rest satisfied with the status quo of traditional services.Instead,these segments will increasingly push to accelerate and benefit from the shift to empowerment.Education and protection remain important parts of the mission to foster trust,inclusion and sustainability.Regulators,policy makers and service providers/vendors must work with consumers to ensure that they are aware they will be consuming financial services,even though these may often not be explicitly A promising scenario then emerges as empowerment becomes a two-way street,where businesses incumbents and new players alike can tap into dormant or new market segments/opportunities,leading to a collateral impact on greater wealth generation,reshaping profit dynamics and broadening the purpose dimension.The future of value transfer|Empowering inclusive and sustainable financial services 5labelled as such and offer them necessary and often essential protections.Any system that incorporates incentives for empowerment must also incorporate all of the elements required to support customer protection.Another important element is gauging financial capacity,which can already be achieved in different ways to overcome the absence of documented or proven history.Given the growing tendency to collect income and pay bills online,utility companies,telecoms providers,and social media platforms with wallets are all playing a part in creating inclusive and sustainable financial services ecosystems.However,the current thinking is constrained by point-to-point solutions struggling to co-exist with ecosystem-wide solutions driven by the mistaken need to control the customer rather than the more intuitive answer to empower the customer.The role of purpose-led regulationIt is becoming evident that a completely decentralized system,where trust is embodied in the core of the system,may be theoretically and technically feasible but practically unachievable.Practically speaking,there will continue to be a real need for regulators,but like business models,regulation will have to evolve.Inclusive financial services are likely to be increasingly provided by players other than traditionally regulated financial institutions.As technology,accessibility and inclusion evolve,it may become increasingly difficult for users of financial services to know who is provided what service and to differentiate between who is regulated and who is not.One solution that could serve well is to accelerate the convergence of the“entity based”model of regulation and accountability with a more consistent and stronger“activity based”and“purpose-led”model.Transparency and interoperability will be key to ensure that regulation is capable of under-pinning the growth of inclusive and sustainable financial services.Take the example of regulating lending services by incentivizing them to simultaneously and appropriately draw on a digital profile for pricing and risk management but also add,to the digital profile for behavior and value creation.Holding all providers of regulated lending services to an interoperable and transparent positioning,regardless of the entity providing those services,could represent a more pervasive and potentially consistent basis for protection and purpose-led policies.In a digitized world underpinning the future of value transfer,customers,incumbents and new players will all need regulation that empowers and protects.Protection means different things to each.Given that the utopia of regulatory harmonisation is unlikely to be achieved,nor give rise to a single trusted source of regulations,what is needed is interoperable and transparent regulations that allow for digital application,reinforcement and supervision.They will also be designed to support compliance across service ecosystems.In this world,the role of regulators Put simply,for a trust system to work,there must be consequences for when it is breached whether by accident or by design.The future of value transfer|Empowering inclusive and sustainable financial services 6and policymakers would move towards creating an environment that drives protection through empowerment i.e.establishing regulatory incentives,to push for greater empowerment of the good actors and to prevent empowerment of the bad ones.Calling for a shift in mindsetWe believe the shift to the future of value transfer will create conditions that are ideally suited to address many of the challenges that are currently hampering global efforts to promote inclusive and sustainable financial services.The evolution witnessed to date,in the financial services industry has been through using developments in technology and points-to-points solutions to take markets as they emerge.Much of the future for financial services will hinge on the expanded concept of digital identity that embodies the value created by digital presence and activity.This in turn,helps overcome the trust challenge laying the groundwork for incumbents and new entrants alike,to compete,innovate and empower customers making markets from technology and establishing sustainable business models in the process.The incumbents including BigTechs as well as established financial institutions benefit from several advantages over new players,including substantial financial resources and a well-earned and fought-for hold on customer trust.The financial institutions among them will no doubt seek to leverage and mobilize their capabilities in protecting customer data and verifying identities to maintain a central position in increasingly empowered customer relationships.8 Last,but not least,while the ecosystems that create value webs perpetuate growth for good actors,it will also allow for bad actors,and if the newly included are taken advantage of,momentum could falter.Therefore,we believe that in order for future value webs to sustainably drive growth,the provision of governance,protection and oversight will remain indispensable and,in all likelihood,cyber zero trust should be the default.9 The inevitable shift to value webs creates never seen before opportunities for advancing the nature of financial inclusion,which,combined with the evolution of business models and regulation alike,should provide the basis for increasingly sustainable financial services where profit and purpose converge provided by many for the benefit of many.In the next article of this series,we will take a closer look at why platforms providing interoperability will be key to supporting future value webs.Learn more about what we believe the future of value transfer will be at The future of value transfer|Deloitte China The future of value transfer will require a mindset shift to using technology to make markets from the opportunities that the transition to value webs creates.The future of value transfer|Empowering inclusive and sustainable financial services 7Endnotes1.Leora Klapper,“The Link Between Financial Inclusion&Sustainable Development”,World Bank Development Research Group,2017:https:/www.un.org/esa/ffd/ffdforum/wp-content/uploads/sites/3/2017/05/RT-B-Klapper.pdf2.Paul Sin,“Inclusion through distribution:How blockchain supports financial inclusion”,Deloitte,18th December,2020:https:/ World Bank:UFA2020 Overview:Universal Financial Access by 2020 https:/www.worldbank.org/en/topic/financialinclusion/brief/achieving-universal-financial-access-by-2020 4.Ibid.5.Max Chuard,“Cloud and SaaS technology can drive inclusive banking.Here are 3 reasons how:,World Economic Forum,10th December,2020:https:/www.weforum.org/agenda/2020/12/cloud-and-saas-technology-can-drive-inclusive-banking6.Vira Widiyasari,Herman Widjaja,“This new approach to credit scoring is accelerating financial inclusion in emerging economies”,World Economic Forum,20th January,2021:https:/www.weforum.org/agenda/2021/01/this-new-approach-to-credit-scoring-is-accelerating-financial-inclusion7.Mohit Joshi,“Digital identity can help advance inclusive financial services”,World Economic Forum,30th April 2021:https:/www.weforum.org/agenda/2021/04/digital-id-is-the-catalyst-of-our-digital-future8.“Realizing the digital promise:Transformation in an ecosystem of regulators,BigTech,FinTech and more”,The Institute of International Finance and Deloitte,2020:https:/ Rockall,Matt Holt,Fadi Mutlak,Serdar Cabuk,Karthi Pillay,Richard Price,Luis Abreu and Marius von Spreti,“Zero Trust:A revolutionary approach to Cyber or just another buzz word?”,Deloitte,2021:https:/ The future of value transfer|Empowering inclusive and sustainable financial services 8ContactsRob Galaski Vice Chair,Financial Services Leader Deloitte Canada rgalaskideloitte.caDuleesha Kulasooriya Executive Director,Deloitte Centre for the Edge Singapore Radha Manogaran Director,Deloitte Centre for the Edge Singapore Mohit Mehrotra Partner,Monitor Deloitte Singapore Soumak Chatterjee Partner,Deloitte Consulting Canada schatterjeedeloitte.caMichael Tang Global Digital Transformation Leader for Financial Services Canada mtangdeloitte.caJanice Tan Strategy&Solutions Manager,Asia Pacific Academy Singapore Todd Roberts Partner,Deloitte Consulting Canada toddrobertsdeloitte.caSiddharth Rao Strategy Leader,Asia Pacific Academy Singapore Frances Yu Global Customer Strategy&Applied Design Leader Deloitte Consulting United States ContributorsAcknowledgementsThis paper has been produced following the successful conclusion of an intensive seven-week human centered design development program facilitated by an incredible team from the Deloitte Asia Pacific Academy.We would like to thank all forty participants drawn from all generations,cultures and businesses across the Deloitte Asia Pacific Member Firms for their continuing contribution to developing the Future of Value Transfer series.The future of value transfer|Empowering inclusive and sustainable financial services 9China contactsLiu Shaolun Partner,FSI Solutions Services LeaderDeloitte Consulting China 86 10 8512 Wang Zhuo Senior Manager,FSI Solutions ServicesDeloitte Consulting China 86 10 8534 Office locationsHefeiRoom 1506,Tower A China Resource BuildingNo.111 Qian Shan RoadShu Shan DistrictHefei 230022,PRCTel: 86 551 6585 5927Fax: 86 551 6585 5687Hong Kong35/F One Pacific Place88 QueenswayHong KongTel: 852 2852 1600Fax: 852 2541 1911JinanUnits 2802-2804,28/FChina Overseas Plaza OfficeNo.6636,2nd Ring South RoadShizhong DistrictJinan 250000,PRCTel: 86 531 8973 5800Fax: 86 531 8973 5811Macau 19/F The Macau Square Apartment H-L43-53A Av.do Infante 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4人已浏览 2023-03-29 11页 5星级

Dealroom：2023年柏林初创企业就业报告（英文版）（25页）.pdf

March 2023Berlin Startup Employment2023 Berlin Startup Employment2023Page/2 “After the all-time high Venture Capital year of 2021,expectations for 2022 were not too encouraging across the globe.But even in times of climate crisis,war,inflation and energy scarcity,the Berlin startup ecosystem proved robust.Despite ongoing adjustments and consolidations in the markets worldwide,VC numbers in 2022 were still the second highest ever for Berlins ecosystem.A look at the current startup-map.berlin,which we as State of Berlin provide by partnering up with Dealroom.co,already confirms considerable VC rounds in Berlin in 2023.On the other hand,news on job cuts around the world especially in large tech companies are making the rounds.But as we learn in this brief report,especially young companies keep the Berlin pace:smaller companies are the biggest job creators and a key factor for overall growing employment numbers in Berlin.A considerable amount of these jobs was created by companies and startups from abroad.What we also see in this report is that fintech and health as well as social and impact startups play a major role in the Berlin ecosystem,helping to make the ecosystem grow even in years of consolidation.While the report also confirms that most startups were founded by men,Berlin is taking considerable steps towards encouraging and supporting female entrepreneurship and founders in order to boost the potential of the citys ecosystem.An additional quantitative report to show the overall picture on diversity and impact in startups will appear this spring.More than 73.000 employees work in the Berlin startup ecosystem.The Senate of Berlin continues to support this development with its brand new Startup Agenda and in close cooperation with the IBB Berlins Business Development Bank,Berlin Partner for Economy and Technology,the Startup-map.berlin,and further organizations and initiatives.ForewordStephan SchwarzSenator for Economics,Energy and Public EnterprisesPage/3 Table of contents.State of Startup jobs in BerlinThe determinants of job creation in BerlinIndustry deep dives:eCommerce,Impact,Fintech,HealthMethodologyThe determinants of job creation in BerlinIndustry deep dives:eCommerce,Impact,Fintech,HealthMethodologyCarla NapoleoInnovation Analyst at Dealroom.coLouisGeoffroy-TerrynEcosystem Research Lead at Dealroom.coFINALAuthors:With the support of:Norbert HerrmannStartup Affairs at Berlin Senate Department for Economics,Energy&Public EnterprisesXXXOther publications on Berlin ecosystem.Louis Geoffroy-TerrynEcosystem Research Lead at Dealroom.coNorbert HerrmannStartup Affairs at Berlin Senate Department for Economics,Energy&Public EnterprisesWith the support of:Startup jobs in Berlin 2020Berlin ecosystem 2019Projekt Zukunft:Berlin:Startup report(2022)Read previous editions:This is the fourth edition in the Berlin Startup Employment report series.Page/4 What you need to know.3 in every 5 jobs created in Berlins startup ecosystem are created by smaller companies.The majority of local jobs are created by companies with less than 500 employees.As of December 2022,2.3K startups and scaleups employed 62%of all employees in the ecosystem.Berlin-based startups continue to be job growth engines.39%of new startup roles in the last year were created by the youngest cohort of companies(founded since 2017).Layoffs have impacted mostly late-stage companies,while seed and early-stage are holding up far better.Not all companies have been impacted equally by tech layoffs.So far,smaller companies,the biggest job creators,seem to fare better than late-stage companies.Berlin impact startups generate 9%of total number of local jobs.Impact startups currently generate 9%of the total number of startups jobs,up 18%since January 2022.Berlins startup sector is growing59K BerlinPLACEHOLDER TO BE ADDED KEY TAKEAWAYS2.4K startupsJob-creating homegrown startups on the Berlin-startups Database.73K Jobs in BerlinThe Berlin startup ecosystem currently supports 73K local jobs. 5.7K new jobs since Jan 2022Jobs created by Berlin-based startups over past year(Jan.2023-Jan.2023)76KJobs abroadJobs created by Berlin-based startups outside of Germany.FINALSource:Dealroom.co. 5.7K new jobs since Jan 2022Jobs created by Berlin-based startups over past year(Jan.2023-Jan.2023)2.4K startupsJob-creating homegrown startups on the Berlin-startups Database.76KJobs abroadJobs created by Berlin-based startups outside of Germany.Key Figures. 5.7K new jobs since Jan 2022Jobs created by Berlin-based startups over past year(Jan.2023-Jan.2023)2.4K startupsJob-creating homegrown startups on the Berlin-startups Database.76KJobs abroadJobs created by Berlin-based startups outside of Germany.3 in every 5 jobs created in Berlins startup ecosystem are created by smaller companies.The majority of local jobs are created by companies with less than 500 employees.As of December 2022,2.3K startups and scaleups employed 62%of all employees in the ecosystem.3 von 5 Arbeitspltzen,die in Berlins Startup-kosystem geschaffen werden,entstehen in kleineren Unternehmen.Die Mehrheit der lokalen Arbeitspltze wird von Unternehmen mit weniger als 500 Mitarbeitern geschaffen.Im Dezember 2022 beschftigten 2,3K Startups und Scaleups 62%aller Beschftigten im kosystem.Layoffs have impacted mostly late-stage companies,while seed and early-stage are holding up far better.Not all companies have been impacted equally by tech layoffs.So far,smaller companies,the biggest job creators,seem to fare better than late-stage companies.Entlassungen haben vor allem Late-stage Unternehmen,whrend sich die Seed und Early-stage unternehmen weitaus besser halten.Nicht alle Unternehmen sind gleichermaen von den Entlassungen im Technologiesektor betroffen.Bislang scheinen kleinere Unternehmen,die die meisten Arbeitspltze schaffen,besser dazustehen als Unternehmen in der Sptphase.Berlin-based startups continue to be job growth engines.39%of new startup roles in the last year were created by the youngest cohort of companies(founded since 2017).Berliner Startups sind weiterhin Motoren des Beschftigungswachstums.39r neuen Startup-Stellen im letzten Jahr wurden von der jngsten Kohorte von Unternehmen(gegrndet seit 2017)geschaffen.Berlin impact startups generate 9%of total number of local jobs.Impact startups currently generate 9%of the total number of startups jobs,up 18%since January 2022.Berliner Impact-Startups generieren 9r gesamten lokalen Arbeitspltze.Impact-Startups generieren derzeit 9r gesamten Arbeitspltze in Startups,ein Anstieg um 18%seit Januar 2022.73K Jobs in Berlincreated by local startups 5.7K new jobs since Jan 20222.4K Job-creating startupson startup-map.berlin76K Jobs abroadcreated by Berlin startupsKey figuresVisit Berlins startup database to explore the Berlin tech ecosystem in greater depth.The first open digital database covering startups,scaleups and funding in Berlin.The platform catalogues the collective regional tech ecosystem,covering areas such as newly founded and scaling companies,funding,investors,accelerators,and job opportunities.Powered byInitiated byFINALVisit the platformPage/6 Companies in this reportUseful terms to navigate this report.A company designed to grow fast.Generally,such companies are VC-investable businesses.read moreRapidly scaling company(and tech enabled)that has reached a$1 billion valuation.read moreTotal number of employees at homegrown Berlinbased startups.Jobs based in the companys own headquarters locations,e.g.jobs at Zalando in Berlin.All jobs created by Berlin-based startups globally,including jobs in headquarters and in the rest of Germany,e.g.N26s global workforce.StartupUnicornsStartup jobsLocal jobsGlobal jobsGrownupsMore than 500 people globally,founded in Berlin after 1990.Scaleups50-500 people globally,founded in Berlin after 1990.StartupsCompanies designed to grow fast.VC-backed business model.Less than 50 people,founded in Berlin after 1990.Useful terms to navigate this reportA company designed to grow fast.Generally,such companies are VC-investable businesses.Rapidly scaling company(and tech enabled)that has reached a$1 billion valuation.Fast-growing companies founded after 1990,valued between$250M-$1B,which raised at least one funding round since 2017(see Berlins future unicorns).Startups with current main center of business in Berlin.Jobs based in the companys own headquarters locations,e.g.jobs at Zalando in Berlin.All jobs created by Berlin-based startups globally,including jobs in headquarters and in the rest of Germany,e.g.N26s global workforce.StartupUnicornHomegrown startupGlobal jobsLocal jobsFor more detailed information on the methodology and underlying data can be found in the dedicated section at the end of this report,and on knowledge.dealroom.co.Future unicornNote:unless otherwise mentioned,“jobs”refer to local jobs throughout this report.More detailed information on the methodology and underlying data can be found in the dedicated section at the end of this report,and on knowledge.dealroom.co.FINALSource:Dealroom.co.For full methodology about the dataset read pages 22-24.Page/7 Page/7 10-50M50 M25020015022companies21companiesSource:Dealroom.co.*Includes startups with current main center of business(HQ)in Berlin.In 2022,Berlin startups raised 4.9B,a 55crease compared to 2021,but was still over 50%higher than 2020 numbers.Despite Berlin startups having only raised 45%in VC funding in 2022 of the total raised in 2021,not all funding stages were impacted equally.While late stage investment(40M )decreased 70%in the last twelve months,early stage investment(40M)has increased by 10%during the same period.Megarounds(100M)were particularly impacted,with just 8 megarounds,down from a peak of 24 in 2021.20212020201120122013201420152016201720182019201010B5BVC Funding of Berlin startups*view online 4.9B10.9B3.1B15B2022 01M(pre-seed)14M(seed)415M(Series A)1540M(Series B)40100M(Series C)100-250M 250M FINALPage/8 10-50M50 M25020015022companies21companiesAlternative sources of investment contribute two fifths of Berlins total investment raised since 2017.Source:Dealroom.co.*Other investor type includes all other investor types other than venture capital and corporate,such as Accelerators,Private Equity and others.*Angel investor type includes Angel and Angel funds.VC funding by investor type 5-year Average view onlineCorporate22%Angel*9%Others*8%Explore the list22%9%Angels*Others*60%Venture Capital9%CorporateExplore the VC fundings with Angel participation in 2022 FINALPage/9 VC-backed or not:very different growth trajectories1MFunding(seed )Year 1Year 10Year 514 people after 10 years(avg.)21 people after 10 years(avg.)4MFunding(Series A )84 people after 10 years(avg.)Theres a positive correlation between startups and venture capital.On average,startups receiving seed funding scale twice as fast as those that didnt.Series A startups grow four times faster.VC-backed startups scale their headcount faster,as companies invest in people.No Known Investment1560120 240480Average team size(local employees)by VC-funding stage,20220-1M1-4M4-15M15-40M40M 100 110 250 190 170 1.6K startups67%of companies in this report are not VC-backed.30Source:Dealroom.co.Dataset:2.4K companies with known employment data.Period:December 2022.FINALPage/10 Source:Dealroom.co.Dataset:73K local jobs created by 2.4K Berlin-based companies and 17K jobs created by 170 foreign companies.Period:December 2022.3 out of every 5 jobs created in Berlins ecosystem are created by smaller companies.In Berlin,unicorns-companies valued above$1B account for 31%of all jobs created in Berlins ecosystem.Just the five biggest employers(Zalando,Delivery Hero,HelloFresh,N26 Group,AUTO1 Group),all of which are unicorns,account for nearly 20%of all startup jobs in Berlin.Although Berlins biggest success cases account for a sizeable share of all jobs,the vast majority of jobs are created by smaller companies those with fewer than 500 employees.The 2.4K startups and scaleups employ 45K people,as they account for 62%of all jobs in the ecosystem.Looking at the bigger picture roughly 3 in every 5 jobs created in Berlins ecosystem are created by smaller companies(startups and scaleups).Startups(1.9K companies)Scaleups(412 companies)Grownups(16 companies)17K jobs(24%)28K jobs(38%)5K jobs(7%)23K jobs(31%)Unicorns*(31 companies)Startups1.9K companies8 avg.years old9 avg.employeesNumber of Berlin-based jobs by company type.Scaleups412 companies15 avg.years old68 avg.employeesGrownups16 companies12 avg.years old317 avg.employeesUnicorns40 companies9 avg.years old728 avg.employeesUnicorns-companies valued above$1B-only provide less than 10%of all startups jobs in the Nordics.Although the regions biggest success stories,like Spotify or Wolt,each create many jobs in their home countries.In other Nordic countries and beyond,most jobs are created by a long-tail of Nordic startups(2-50 employees)and scaleups(51-500 employees).Considering the broader picture,1 in every 2 jobs created by Nordic startups are created by 1.5K scaleups.FINAL25k50k75k100k170 Foreign startups90K 2.6K companies17K 28K 5K 23K 17K Page/11 Younger companies account for over a quarter of all local jobs.The 1.1K companies founded since 2017 employ 19K of Berlins startup workforce(or 27%).Some of the biggest employers in this cohort,include Plan A,Tier and CoachHub.The younger cohort of companies create the most new jobs.Companies founded after 2017 generated 39%of all new jobs created in the ecosystem since January 2022.This is also the biggest cohort by number of startups,accounting for 46%of all job creating startups in Berlin.Job creation in the older generation of startups slowed down.The 170 companies founded between 1990-2005 were the only cohort where there was a job lost since the beginning of the year.In Berlin the younger generation of startups is taking over,owing to the companies life cycle and signs of a growing ecosystem.In Berlin,the youngest cohorts of companies are creating jobs at a faster rate.10K 20K 30K 40K 3.4K jobs Period Jan 2022 to Dec 2022-0.3K jobs Total jobs 2.2K jobs 0.3K jobs In our previous reports,older homegrown companies founded before 2005 were the biggest employers,having had most time to grow.But now a younger generation of startups is taking over.Companies founded after 2010 grew their ranks the fastest at 12%year-on-year since January 2020,creating 79%of all new local jobs at homegrown companies.The youngest cohort of startups(founded after 2016)provided a boost to job creation in Amsterdam:just 686 companies added 2.1K jobs since January 2020.Older startups employ more people:the average team size at companies aged 10 years is 30 employees.This compares to 19 employees at companies aged 5-10 years and nine employees at companies founded since 2016.What is more,older startups still create jobs 10 years on:each company founded more than 10 years ago created an average of 3.6 jobs since 2018.Companies launched since 2016 created just 0.2 more jobs on average.But there are far fewer older companies than younger startups:owing to companies life cycles and a sign of a growing startup ecosystem in Victoria,just 283 active startups are 11 years old or more(as well as another 5 Unicorns founded before 2000).This compares to 629 companies founded in the past four years,which already created over 6,400 jobs.The newer the startup,the more new jobs.Startups founded since 2016 generated 39%of all jobs created since 2018,or 2,300 new jobs,while startups aged 5-10 years contributed another 35%(2,100)new jobs.Older startups(10 years old),created the remaining 26%(1,500)new jobs.The overall Dutch economy grew by 4.8%last year,its strongest registered growth since 1998*.Following a similar trend observed in previous reports,startups are an above average growing industry with an annual growth of 7.6%.Companies founded before 2005 remain the biggest employers in the dutch startup and scaleup ecosystem,currently employing nearly 51K people across the country.However,this cohort of companies now records the slowest growth,at 6.4%year-over-year on average.The youngest cohort of companies is now contributing to 17K jobs.1990-20052006-20112012-20162017-nowFINALFINALSource:Dealroom.co.Dataset:2.4K Berlin-based companies with known employment data. 2% 2% 13% 17%-5%Page/12 Source:Dealroom.co.*A unicorn is defined as a rapidly scaling company(and tech enabled)that has reached a$1 billion valuation,on the basis of a funding round(unrealised),acquisition or IPO(realised).Although the majority of the ecosystem value resides in more mature companies,over half of all jobs are created by smaller,medium-sized companies.Combined valuation of 31 Berlin-based Unicorns*Jobs created by Berlin-based unicornsCombined enterprise value of all other startups and scaleupsJobs at the next 50 biggest scaleupsAll other startups and scaleupsCombined valuation of the next 50 largest companies23K Jobs31K Jobs178K Jobs53%SolarisZalandoDelivery HeroHelloFreshN26 GroupAUTO1 GroupGetYourGuideInfarmIdealoBabbelMBitionMcMaklerAbletonZenJobHome24HeyJobsHighsnobietyQuenticThermondoGardenPeaqBetterguardsAutomation HeroHiveBrainEffectPlan APets DeliCobotHigh Mobility Brea87B62B9AB29#k jobs31k jobs178k jobs52%All other startups and scaleupsJobs at the next 50 biggest scaleupsJobs created by Berlin-based unicornsFINALPage/13 In Berlin,layoffs have impacted mostly late-stage companies so far while smaller companies are holding up far better in comparison.Foreign Tech with secondaryoffices in BerlinBerlin-based scaleups and grownupsRecent layoffs announced by startups&tech companies with a presence in BerlinSelected startups actively hiring BerlinExplore all Berlin-based startups and scaleups actively hiring in Berlin Source:Dealroom.co.*Dealroom analysis based on compile publicly reporting on layoffs by Berlin-based scaleups and grownups,and foreign tech present in Berlin as of February 2023.Amid the downturn,layoffs have impacted tech companies globally.Household names of the Berlin tech ecosystem have announced major strategic shifts,including hiring freezes and restructuring plans over the past year.This has had a visible effect on job creation and to a lesser extent,on the overall number of jobs in the ecosystem*.But not all companies have been impacted equally.So far,smaller companies,the biggest job creators,seem to fare better than late-stage companies,leaving net job creation largely in the green.FINAL Explore all foreign startups hiringin Berlin Berlin-based layoffs announcement food/delivery:HelloFresh(jan 2023)https:/ Hero(Nov 2022):https:/ 2022)300 peoplehttps:/ scaleups&Grownups layoffs announcedForto(Jan 2023):https:/ Infarm(Jan 2022):https:/ 2023):https:/ NOW(Dec 2022):https:/ 2023):https:/ 2023):https:/ at BigTech(with presence in Berlin):SAP(Jan 2023):https:/ Spotify:https:/ Googlehttps:/blog.google/inside-google/message-ceo/january-update/Metahttps:/ Amazonhttps:/www.lemonde.fr/en/economy/article/2023/01/05/amazon-to-lay-off-more-than-18-000-workers-citing-economic-uncertainties_6010350_19.html#:text=Amazons job-slashing plan is,largest in the companys history.-Peoples engagement report:https:/ Foreign startups are increasingly looking to Berlin for growth:the likes of Too Good To Go and Doctolib help creating 17K jobs in the city.FoodEnterprise SoftwareMediaFintechMarketingEnergyTelecom6K2.7K2.5K1.8K1.8K1.3K1.1KSecurity3.9KTop 10 industries by number of jobs created by foreign startupsTransportation1KHosting0.7K 450 100 150 60 100 60 Foreign unicorns with a secondary office in BerlinGrownups&Tech behemoths with a presence in Berlin Foreign scaleups with a secondary office in Berlin15 15 45 70 60 Source:Dealroom.co.*Analysis focuses on 170 startups that arent HQed in Berlin/Brandenburg but have a presence in the region,founded after 1990.Period:February 2023.600 300 FINAL 90 300 German companies with HQ outside of Berlin17K local jobs created by foreign startupsPage/15 Source:Dealroom.co.Dataset:785 startups with founder data and VC-backed.Gender data is self-reported on Dealroom or public social media pages.25.7B104K jobs4 jobs created per M raised5 jobs created per M raised4.3B19.2k jobsJobs created per M raised by founder gender composition All-male founding teams Min 1 female founderHowever,the landscape is changing for the younger cohort of companies.Median team size by founder gender composition All-male founding teams All-female founding teams Mixed founding teams80%All male founders15%Mixed teams5%All female founders71Mixed teams83Average team size(globally)at Berlin startups with all-male founding teams.18All female founders41MAll male founders34MMixed teams28MAll female foundersAverage investment per founder gender composition All-male founding teams All-female founding teams Mixed founding teams25 %590-20052006-20112012-20162017-now%of VC-backed startups with at least one female founder by cohortFINALIn Berlin,4 in every 5 VC-backed startups have an all-male founding team.%of VC-backed startups by founder gender compositionHowever,the landscape is changing for the younger cohort of companies.Male onlyMixed15%Min.1 female founder25 %590-20052006-20112012-20162017-now%of VC-backed startups with at least one female founder by cohort1 female(co-)founder19%However,the landscape is changing for younger cohort of companies.Page/16 IndustryAverage team sizeTravel46Ecommerce37Fintech31Food24Transportation23Hosting23Robotics22Jobs Recruitment21Telecom20Sports20Marketing19Health19Education19eCommerce is the largest employer,followed by Fintech and Food.Kids0,2KDating Replace image-Upload from computer.You can find images here https:/ them in Original size for best quality.Page/22 8K businesses with a presence in Berlin,including startups,conventional SMEs and other innovative businesses.Companies in this report.4.5K verified Berlin-based startups.2.4K verified Berlin-based startups with employment data.EnablersBerlin innovation ecosystem.INVESTORSGOVERNMENTSWORKSPACESCORPORATESSERVICE PROVIDERSACCELERATORSScope of this report.*Additional criterion:Active startups:excludes stealth&closed(failed)startups.Job-creating startups:nascent startups(employment value=1)and startups without known employee value are excluded.Verified means manually verified to qualify as a startup.Note:Due to the continuous cleaning process of the Startup Berlin platform,this report features a cleaner dataset,with more reliable data.Source:Dealroom.co.FINALPage/23 In this report,the term“tech ecosystem”refers to all startups,scaleups and grownups headquartered in Berlin/Brandenburg Metropolitan Region.Only companies founded in or after 1990 are included in this report.This report may refer simply to startups as a container for startups,scaleups and grownups.Startups,scaleups,grownups and tech.A startup is a company designed to grow fast.Generally,such companies are VC-investable businesses.Read more about our methodology here.When startups are successful,they develop into scaleups(50 people),grownups(500 people)and result in big companies,like Zalando or HelloFresh.Some become very big(e.g.$1B valuation).Read more about our unicorn methodology here.Methodology&definitions.Startup jobs?The words“jobs”and“employees”are used interchangeably.Number of jobs represent the total number of employees at homegrown startups.It is assumed that Berlin-based employees work at the companys headquarters.In this report the term“Berlin-based”is used to describe companies based in Berlin/Brandenburg region(see page 23).The number of jobs is sourced from publicly available data,pany statements and professional social media.This report counts all jobs at startups,not just tech jobs(i.e.mechanics,receptionists,helpdesk,).However,gig workers(e.g.riders,babysitters,.)are generally not counted.Jobs at companies not covered in the report are not counted.FINALSource:Dealroom.co.Startups,scaleups,grownups and tech.A startup is a company designed to grow fast.Generally,such companies are VC-investable businesses.Read more about our methodology here.When startups are successful,they develop into scaleups(50 people),grownups(500 people)and result in big companies,like Zalando or HelloFresh.Some become very big(e.g.$1B valuation).Read more about our unicorn methodology here.In this report,the term“tech ecosystem”refers to all startups,scaleups and grownups headquartered in Berlin/Brandenburg Metropolitan Region.Only companies founded in or after 1990 are included in this report.This report may refer simply to startups as a container for startups,scaleups and grownups.Startup jobs?The words“jobs”and“employees”are used interchangeably.Number of jobs represent the total number of employees at homegrown startups.It is assumed that Berlin-based employees work at the companys headquarters.In this report the term“Berlin-based”is used to describe companies based in Berlin/Brandenburg region(see page 24).The number of jobs is sourced from publicly available data,pany statements and professional social media.This report counts all jobs at startups,not just tech jobs(i.e.mechanics,receptionists,helpdesk,).However,gig workers(e.g.riders,babysitters,.)are generally not counted.Jobs at companies not covered in the report are not counted.What is a Startup?Page/24 Venture Capital,InvestorsInvestment numbers refer to rounds such as Seed,Series A,B,C,late stage,and growth equity rounds.VC investment figures exclude debt or other non-equity funding,lending capital,grants and ICOs.Investment rounds are sourced from public disclosures including press releases,news,filings and verified,user-submitted information.Sectors&IndustriesIndustry classification follows Dealrooms proprietary taxonomy,which was built specifically for startups.A given startup may belong to up to two industries.Methodology&definitions.The data on which this report builds is available on startup-map.berlin.For more info please visit dealroom.co or contact supportdealroom.co.ValuationThe combined valuation of the tech ecosystem is based on their market cap or latest transaction value.Transaction value is realized from exit or implied unrealised valuation from the latest VC round,which is either announced or estimated by Dealroom based on benchmarks.Underlying DataDealrooms proprietary database and software aggregate data from multiple sources:harvesting public information,user-submitted data verified by Dealroom,data engineering.All data is verified and curated with an extensive manual process.Venture Capital,InvestorsInvestment numbers refer to rounds such as Seed,Series A,B,C,late stage,and growth equity rounds.VC investment figures exclude debt or other non-equity funding,lending capital,grants and ICOs.Investment rounds are sourced from public disclosures including press releases,news,filings and verified,user-submitted information.Sectors&IndustriesIndustry classification follows Dealrooms proprietary taxonomy,which was built specifically for startups.A given startup may belong to up to two industries.Berlin/Brandenburg regionThis report compiles analysis on the Berlin/Brandenburg metropolitan region,which consists of the entire territories of the state of Berlin and the surrounding state of Brandenburg.The Berlin/Brandenburg region counts three levels of centralities:the metropolis of Berlin,the four upper level regional centres of Potsdam,Cottbus,Brandenburg an der Havel and Frankfurt(Oder),as well as 42 secondary centres allocated to 50 towns.The analysis in this report consists of 2.3K companies based in Berlin and 100 companies based in Brandenburg.In terms job distribution,Berlin-based companies account for 71K local jobs,while the 100 Brandenburg startups account for 2K local jobs.Glossary&DefinitionsFINALSource:Dealroom.co.ValuationThe combined valuation of the tech ecosystem is based on their market cap or latest transaction value.Transaction value is realized from exit or implied unrealised valuation from the latest VC round,which is either announced or estimated by Dealroom based on benchmarks.Underlying DataDealrooms proprietary database and software aggregate data from multiple sources:harvesting public information,user-submitted data verified by Dealroom,data engineering.All data is verified and curated with an extensive manual process.Berlin/Brandenburg regionThis report compiles analysis on the Berlin/Brandenburg metropolitan region,which consists of the entire territories of the state of Berlin and the surrounding state of Brandenburg.The Berlin/Brandenburg region counts three levels of centralities:the metropolis of Berlin,the four upper level regional centres of Potsdam,Cottbus,Brandenburg an der Havel and Frankfurt(Oder),as well as 42 secondary centres allocated to 50 towns.The analysis in this report consists of 2.3K companies based in Berlin and 100 companies based in Brandenburg.In terms job distribution,Berlin-based companies account for 71K local jobs,while the 100 Brandenburg startups account for 2K local jobs.Glossary&Definitions

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理特咨询：2023五项关键技术报告-科技公司董事会成员和CEO应密切关注（第4版）（英文版）（28页）.pdf

TIME TO RENE W YOUR PILOT S LICENSE?Five technologies board members and CEOs must keep on their radar screens2023CONTENTEXECUTIVE SUMMARY 31.TECHNOLOGY:THE ENABLER OF BUSINESS ACTIVITY 42.DISRUPTIVE,EXPONENTIAL&CONVERGENT TECHNOLOGIES 53.FIVE KEY TECHNOLOGIES TO GET ON YOUR RADAR 64.TURNING TECHNOLOGY INTO BUSINESS IMPACT 20CONCLUSION 24LEAD AUTHORSPETTER KILEFORSManaging Partner,Strategy&O OSCAR BYLUNDBusiness Analyst,Travel&T MICHAEL KOLKManaging Partner,Global Head of Technology&Innovation Management JONAS ANDRENPrincipal,Strategy&O FRANCESCO MARSELLAManaging Partner,Global Head of Strategy&O COAUTHORS&CONTRIBUTORSSMALL MODULAR REACTORSMichael Kruse,Managing Partner,Global Head of Energy&Utilities;Lars Thurmann-Moe,PartnerARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCEMichael Eiden,Partner,Global Head of AIBLOCKCHAIN TECHNOLOGYFabian Doemer,Managing PartnerQUANTUM COMPUTINGAlbert Meige,Director of Blue Shift;Lucas Koennecke,ManagerCELL&GENE THERAPYUlrica Sehlstedt,Managing Partner,Global Head of Healthcare&Life SciencesSTRATEGY&ORGANIZATIONAlan Martinovich,Partner;Axel Johanson,AnalystTECHNOLOGY&INNOVATION MANAGEMENTYusuke Harada,Managing Partner;Ben Thuriaux,Partner;Habib Hussein,Principal;Philip Webster,Principal2Just as the pilot must refresh and renew capabilities continuously to be fit for flight,so must the business leader.A decade of challenging business conditions marked by geopolitical and macroeconomic headwinds has led to the promise of disruptive and exponential technologies.A clear helicopter view,more than ever before,is critical in separating the winners from the less successful.Board members and CEOs need a better understanding of disruptive and exponential technologies and their impact on business.In this Report,we present five key technologies and explain why they are essential to be on the radar for every board member and CEO,and how they should use them to their advantage.E XECUTIVE SUMMARYARTHUR D.LITTLE3Meaningful businesses operate and thrive in a fundamental ecosystem consisting of five factors:1 humans,machines,capital,energy,and rules.Technology has always played a crucial role in shaping this ecosystem to improve performance and to overcome challenges,and this remains true today(see Figure 1):1.Humans recently have been challenged by the COVID-19 pandemic,disrupting societies and economies on a global scale.However,the rapid development and release of vaccines based on new mRNA technology,as well as processes to bring them to commercial use,thwarted an even more catastrophic scenario.2.Machines(computers)are pushing up against physical limits on the number of transistors that can fit on a chip,thereby struggling to deliver on Moores law(roughly a doubling every two years)and associated performance increase.Major advancements in artificial intelligence(AI)and quantum computing,however,open up a potential step change in productivity.1 From a concept created by Arthur D.Little Managing Partner Petter Kilefors and Principal Jonas Andrn.2 Ritchie,Hannah,et al.“Energy.”Our World in Data,2022.3.Capital and markets play a key role in allocating resources between sectors and over time.Adequately priced and efficiently distributed and deployed,capital acts as a powerful lubricant in the ecosystem,and we have relied on this to support the last decade of growth.However,the current situation,characterized by a lack of capital and underinvestments,threatens a discontinuity in our ecosystem performance.4.Energy cheap,abundant,and clean is a must-have for sustainable ecosystem growth.Today,this is not the case,as 80%of global prime energy still comes from climate-degrading fossil fuels.2 Energy prices are soaring and intermittent renewable sources do not generate enough when needed.Advanced nuclear power,however,can provide the stable,safe,low-carbon energy source that the world desperately needs.5.Rules and regulations are prerequisites for well-functioning markets.Current geopolitical trends characterized by a breakdown of trust between countries and trade blocs is hampering free trade,leading to a break up and regionalization of yesterdays global supply chains.Blockchain technology,with features such as cryptographic trust and transparency,can contribute to making supply chains more efficient,resilient,and secure.All in all,we believe that the 2020s will be very different from the 2010s,requiring businesses to assess and adapt their playbooks.Technology can help us address,mitigate,and overcome challenges,but only if they are understood and harnessed by key decision makers in business.Figure 1.Conceptual ecosystem1.TECHNOLOGY:THE ENABLER OF BUSINESS AC TIVIT YSource:Arthur D.LittleSource:Arthur D.LittleFigure 1.Conceptual ecosystemHumansMachinesCapitalRulesTechnologyEnergyTechnologyTechnologyTechnology4REPORT:TIME TO RENEW YOUR PILOTS LICENSE?ARTHUR D.LITTLENever before have there been so many innovation platforms in concurrent development,reinforcing each other and creating new and previously unthinkable use cases.These platforms span a number of disruptive,sometimes exponential,and often convergent technologies.These technologies are significantly altering the way that consumers,industries,and businesses operate.At the same time,the pace at which they are evolving in terms of performance is in many cases increasing on an exponential scale,with a significant impact on business and society as a whole.Convergence across technologies will amplify their potential.For example,the convergence of robotics,battery technologies,and AI is likely to fundamentally alter the cost structure of transportation.And the convergence of next-generation DNA sequencing,AI,and gene therapy will enable personalized medicine and thus has the potential to create a new golden age for healthcare.A third example is the convergence of application programming interfaces(APIs),social platforms,and blockchain technology,with the potential to integrate business and consumer marketplaces in ways that were not previously possible.These transformative technologies are approaching important tipping points as performance increases and costs decrease,leading to increased demand across industry sectors.In fact,Arthur D.Little(ADL)analysis shows that market capitalization for the above-mentioned technologies combined has already cleared the US trillion-dollar mark and is forecasted to grow 15x by 2030.3 Weill,Peter,Stephanie L.Woerner,and Aman M.Shah.“Does Your C-Suite Have Enough Digital Smarts?”MIT Sloan Management Review,Spring 2021.4 Weill,Peter,et al.“It Pays to Have a Digitally Savvy Board.”MIT Sloan Management Review,Spring 2019.THE CORPORATE COMPETENCE DEFICITSadly,it seems that many top management teams and boards of directors dont have the capabilities and track records required to harness and leverage disruptive technologies.According to a Massachusetts Institute of Technology(MIT)study3 of about 2,000 companies published in March 2021,only 7%were led by technologically competent teams;that is,a team where over half of the members are tech savvy,with a firm understanding of how emerging tech will shape their companys success.Unsurprisingly,those companies outperformed the rest by 48%in terms of revenue growth and market valuation.We believe this is because they can identify the benefits of new technologies and make investments in developing their capabilities and then outcompeting with new products,services,and business plans.Company boards arent that different either;an earlier MIT study of around 3,000 companies with over US$1 billion in annual revenues showed that 76%of boards werent tech savvy be it in terms of directors backgrounds,the number with tech experience,or the manner in which boards interacted with executives on technology-related issues.4 Interestingly,companies with three or more tech savvy directors on their boards reported 17%higher profit margins and 38%higher revenue growth than those with two or fewer directors.We at ADL believe that bridging the corporate competence deficit with regards to disruptive technologies should arguably be one of the most pressing issues for every board and CEO across all industry sectors.2.DISRUP TIVE,E XP ONENTIAL&CONVERGENT TECHNOLOGIES5In helping our clients across all industries create value by linking people,strategy,and technology,we have the knowledge and experience from working with all the innovation platforms and disruptive technologies mentioned in Chapter 2.In this Report,we have selected five technologies that will play pivotal roles in shaping the future of business and society:1.Small modular reactors 2.Artificial intelligence3.Blockchain technology4.Quantum computing5.Cell and gene therapyAlthough we acknowledge the difference between AI as a“general-purpose”technology and cell and gene therapy as more“industry-specific,”we firmly believe that all five have an impact ranging far beyond any individual industry sector,and as such are of great importance to most,if not all,business leaders.5 Schneider,Mycle,and Antony Froggatt.World Nuclear Industry Status Report 2021.September 2021.For each of the five technologies,our objective is to provide answers to the following questions:-What is it?-Why is it important?-What are the use cases?-What are the success stories?In aggregate,according to industry analyses,the market size of these five technologies is expected to grow exponentially(20 x)from$100 billion in 2021 to$2.2 trillion in 2030,corresponding to 40GR(see Figure 2).By 2029,it will surpass todays size of the global passenger cars market!SMALL MODULAR REACTORSFollowing the first discovery of nuclear fission in 1938,it took until 1951 for electricity first to be generated from nuclear power.Following fast growth between the 1970s and late 1980s,however,nuclear energy has failed to live up to its promise.Despite being a low-carbon energy source,accidents such as Chernobyl and Fukushima have hindered the positive public perception of nuclear energy.In addition,regulatory uncertainty,long development times,and high investment cost with frequent cost overruns of new build projects have made countries and utility companies hesitant to further initiatives in nuclear fission.Consequently,the amount of the worlds electricity production from nuclear sources fell from 17.5%in 1996 to 10.1%in 2020.53.FIVE KE Y TECHNOLOGIES TO GE T ON YOUR R ADARFigure 2.Aggregate market growth of the five technologiesSource:Arthur D.Little,industry analyst forecastsSource:Arthur D.Little,industry analyst forecastsFigure 2.Aggregate market growth of the five technologies1062,2002021203020 x 40%US$bnCAGR6REPORT:TIME TO RENEW YOUR PILOTS LICENSE?ARTHUR D.LITTLENow,governments have committed to ambitious climate-change targets that have been giving the technology a second glance.In January 2022,the European Union added nuclear power to a list of projects eligible for green finance.Russias invasion of Ukraine and Europes dependency on Russian oil and gas have sent fossil fuel prices soaring and put energy security at the top of Europes political agenda.Nuclear energy is experiencing a resurgence as more countries worldwide either extend the life span of existing reactors and/or build new ones.For example,Japan shut down its fleet of 50 remaining reactors following the Fukushima accident in 2011.By now,however,Japan has already reopened 17 reactors,while 16 remain in suspended operation.Japan continues to build two new ones,albeit with slow progress.In the US,three nuclear power plants received a positive signal to extend their lifetimes to 80 years,subject to a full environment review.Germany finally seems to be backing away from its entrenched,and in hindsight misguided“Energiewende,”and a public discussion about prolonging the life span of the countrys remaining operational nuclear capacity has started.Countries like China,India,and the UK continue with their plans to revitalize and grow their nuclear fleets.Nuclear newcomers like the United Arab Emirates and the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia,as well as European countries like Hungary and the Czech Republic,are also proceeding with their nuclear energy plans.To bring the global share of nuclear energy to a level where it moves the needle as a low carbon,reliable alternative given the current state of the technology nevertheless requires far too great an investment over a too long time frame.The nuclear industry may have the answer:A new generation of small modular reactors(SMRs)that are designed to be cheaper,quicker,and less financially risky to build.In contrast to current nuclear reactors that require large safety zones,SMRs can be placed where they are most needed.Energy production is not the main issue;instead,the bottleneck emerges when trying to both transport and store the energy efficiently.Being able to strategically place these SMRs where the need is offers a solution to a problem that traditional nuclear plants have been unable to solve.Additionally,series production,standardization,and less complicated systems result in a significant reduction of costs and timespans.6 Dalton,David.“Generation IV/Economic Modeling Compares Costs of SMR to Conventional PWR.”NUCNET,15 October 2020.Comparing a 114-NW SMR to an 1,114-MW conventional reactor,6 we estimate the levelized cost of electricity(LCOE),capturing both capital and operating costs,would be below$50/MWh compared to$92/MWh for the reference plant(55%lower),and time to build would be three years instead of seven(60ster).“Nuclear energy,in terms of an overall safety record,is better than other energy.”Bill GatesThese characteristics position SMRs to play a key role in the transition to reliable,plentiful,and clean energy,helping countries address the sustainable development goals(SDGs).According to ADL market analysis and experiences with several nuclear players on SMRs,projected time to commercial breakthrough for SMRs is less than 10 years with an expected market size of$20 billion in 2030-2040(see Figure 3).The exponential growth of SMRs will likely accelerate in 2030-2040,when more technologies have been tested and approved and production capacity has been ramped up.To meet the learning curve effects and economies of scale needed for SMRs to provide competitive LCOE or levelized cost of heat(LCOH)will require the emergence of a small number(five to six)of dominant global SMR designs.To allow for“mass manufacturing,”these designs will have to follow an internationally harmonized licensing process and allow only minimal customization by operators individual requirements.What are SMRs?Small modular reactors are advanced nuclear reactors that have a power capacity of up to 300 MW per unit,about a third of the capacity of traditional reactors.SMRs are serially produced in a factory with a high degree of standardization and common regulations.Another key advantage is that they are designed for passive safety systems and are not dependent on external electricity and water supply.Source:IAEA,US Energy Impact Center7As a function of their smaller electrical output,SMRs can be installed into an existing grid or remotely off grid,providing low-carbon power for industry and the population.They can more readily slot into brownfield sites in place of decommissioned coal-fired plants,the units of which are seldom very large.Also,SMRs can be designed to produce heat for industrial processes as well as district heating(or cooling)purposes.This makes SMRs more flexible than other renewable energy sources that would require either heat boilers or other energy conversion means like hydrogen to produce heat and steam.As such,they meet requirements to support net-zero ambitions for high-carbon emitters.While nuclear reactors provide a steady source of energy that can regulate the output according to electricity demand,renewable energy alternatives such as wind and solar are intermittent,relying on weather conditions to deliver anticipated power needs.Pairing renewable energy technologies with SMRs in hybrid energy systems holds a great potential to increase the overall effectiveness from renewable sources by also increasing application diversity of energy.To summarize,we believe that in the near future SMRs will empower companies,cities,and even entire nations by offering a scalable,reliable,and low-carbon way to secure current and future energy needs.Figure 3.Small modular reactors market&technology dashboard Note:(1)In a conservative scenario,the timing lies between 2030 and 2040;(2)compared with conventional nuclear technology Source:Arthur D.Little,industry analyst forecastsNote:1)In a conservative scenario,the timing lies between 2030 and 2040;(2)Compared with conventional nuclear technologySource:Arthur D.Little,industry analyst forecastsFigure 3.Small modular reactors market&technology dashboardGrowth multiple 20212030CAGR 20212030Market size20301US$20 bn 20%6xTime to market5-10 yearsTime to build*Cost reduction(LCOE)2-55%-60%Market development metricsTechnology development metricsWhat are the SMR use cases?More than 70 commercial SMR designs are being developed around the world to target different applications,such as:-Electricity&heating-Hybrid energy systems-Steam and hydrogen for industrial applications-Other energy-intense applications (e.g.,water desalination)Source:Arthur D.Little,IAEASuccess story powered by SMRNuScale,a publicly traded US SMR company,made history in 2020 as the first-ever company to receive SMR design approval from the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission(NRC).Foundational to the Carbon Free Power Project,NuScale has been contracted to build a multi-module VOYGR-6(462 MW)SMR plant in Idaho,USA,with the first module generating electricity in 2029.A long list of utility companies across the US have signed memorandums of understanding(MOUs)to explore the applicability of NuScales SMR technologies.Following COP26,corresponding agreements have been signed with utilities in Romania,Bulgaria,Poland,the Czech Republic,Ukraine,and the UK.Source:NuScale138REPORT:TIME TO RENEW YOUR PILOTS LICENSE?ARTHUR D.LITTLEARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE Few of us have missed the aha moment presented by ChatGPT,a chatbot recently introduced to the public domain by Open AI,an AI research and deployment company with the mission to ensure that artificial general intelligence benefits all of humanity.ChatGPT is trained to follow an instruction in a prompt and provide a detailed response.It has proved that AI models are now so powerful that many of them pass the so-called Turing test,where the user cannot distinguish whether the counterpart is a human or a machine.As an example,this is the answer from ChatGPT to the prompt,“Explain ChatGPT in simple terms”:7“ChatGPT is a type of computer program known as a language model.It is trained to understand and generate text in a way that mimics human language.It can be used to answer questions,write stories,or even generate code.It uses a type of machine learning called deep learning,which involves training a large neural network on a dataset of text.This allows it to understand and generate text in a way that is similar to how a human would.”Problems previously thought to be intractable can now be solved by software and other computational systems that learn and evolve by integrating new data.AI will transform business as we know it and further accelerate computational technologys integration into all economic sectors.Businesses today are facing challenges and encountering new levels of complexity above and beyond any historical precedence,while remaining stuck with many repetitive tasks and lots of unused data.8 These are great targets for AI to drive efficiency and enhanced decision support.However,performance of AI models is dependent on data quality to learn and deliver.Therefore,companies need not only build the right AI models,but also make sure that they possess and structure data correctly to successfully train the models.7“ChatGPT:Optimizing Language Models for Dialogue.”OpenAI,30 November 2022.8 For more on the topic of AI,see Eiden,Michael(ed.).“Navigating the Prospects and Perils of AI.”Cutter Business Technology Journal (renamed Amplify),Vol.34,No.5,2021.9“IBM Global AI Adoption Index 2022.”IBM Corporation,May 2022.The benefits of AI are obvious:higher efficiency,higher productivity,and better decision-making.These are not new facts:35%of companies globally are already using some form of AI in their business.9Deep learning was partly enabled by big data and graphic processing units(GPUs),making it possible to access huge amounts of data and processing power for training AI solutions.Deep learning can ingest unstructured data in its raw form(e.g.,text,images),and can automatically determine the set of features that distinguishes different categories of data from one another.Classical,or“non-deep,”machine learning is more dependent on human intervention,especially when it comes to the task of creating features.Research by ARK Invest suggests that by 2030,AI will have increased the output of knowledge workers by 140%.“Were at the beginning of a golden age of AI.Recent advancements have already led to inventions that previously lived in the realm of science fiction and weve only scratched the surface of whats possible.”Jeff BezosWhat is AI?In its simplest form,AI is the field of technology that combines computer science and large data sets to enable problem solving.AI consists of two subfields,machine learning(ML)and deep learning(DL).By providing the AI systems with large data sets and manually“training”the system through iterative processing algorithms,the system can identify patterns from the data sets and from that learn how to perform certain tasks.Source:Arthur D.Little,IBM9Developing at an exponential pace,AI training costs are declining at more than twice the rate of Moores law(see Figure 4).ARK Invest shares its perspective on AIs stunning performance development:“Given 240 trillion synapses,the cost to train a neural network equivalent in size to the human brain in 2021 would have been$2.5 billion and is likely to drop 60%at an annual rate to$600,000 by 2030.”10 AI is potentially the most disruptive and exponential candidate among the five technologies in this Report,and it is already seeing valuable use across industries.10“ARK Big Ideas Summit.“ARK Invest,2022.11 For more on knowledge graphs,see:Eiden,Michael(ed.).“Connecting the Dots with Knowledge Graphs.”Amplify,Vol.35,No.7,2022.Knowledge graphs are an emerging technology within AI.11 They can represent complex relationships between heterogeneous data sets in transparent and scalable way and enable a wide range of AI use cases.ADLs Digital Problem Solving(DPS)team has successfully used knowledge graphs in very diverse projects such as in the detection of early-onset disease patterns for rare disease patients,the investigation of passenger flows at one of the worlds largest airports,and for the analysis of regulatory compliance in the pharmaceutical industry,among others.Natural language processing(NLP)applications have reached superhuman performance in some tasks and are enabling more intuitive interactions between humans and machines,especially in combination with knowledge graphs.To summarize,as we watch how AI is stretching the borders of what is possible and taking the human-machine collaboration to an entirely new state,we must ask ourselves:Have I truly understood the business-critical AI use cases that apply to my industry and my organization?Figure 4.AI market&technology dashboard Source:Arthur D.Little,industry analyst forecastsSource:Arthur D.Little,industry analyst forecastsFigure 4.AI market&technology dashboardGrowth multiple 20212030CAGR 20212030Market size2030 US$1,800bn 40)xTime to market0yearsMoores lawAnnual decrease in cost to train a neural network-60%2xMarket growthTechnology developmentWhat are the use cases of AI?There are numerous,real-world applications of AI systems today,for example:-Speech recognition uses NLP to translate human speech into a written format.-Customer service chatbots and virtual agents replacing human agents along the customer journey.-Computer vision enables computers to derive valuable information from digital images,videos,and other visual inputs.-Recommendation engines AI algorithms discover data trends used to develop more effective cross-selling strategies.-Fraud detection banks and financial institutions use ML to spot suspicious transactions.Source:Arthur D.Little,IBMSuccess story powered by AINearly 9 million tons of plastic enter our oceans each year,impacting more than 600 marine species.The Ocean Cleanup project has developed a passive clean-up system backed by AI that uses ML to identify,locate,and remove tons of plastic from the worlds waterways.The objective is to scale the system and to reduce ocean plastic by 90%by 2040.Source:Arthur D.Little,Microsoft131 0REPORT:TIME TO RENEW YOUR PILOTS LICENSE?ARTHUR D.LITTLEBLOCKCHAIN TECHNOLOGYCryptocurrencies are the most commonly cited examples of blockchains potential,but unfortunately they have also called the technology into question,as the(expected)crash of cryptocurrencies and stock markets followed the exaggerated hype.We advise corporate decision makers to avoid drawing negative conclusions about the relevance of blockchain technology for companies.The real magic of blockchain resides in the powerful management of decentralized digital transactions in complex ecosystems.From increased security and visibility to tracking complex variables related to sustainability and ethical sourcing,blockchain is set to facilitate organizations across industries to lower their costs and improve their performance.Blockchains are perfect to document digital transactions reliably and comprehensibly for the participants,without the need for an intermediary to ensure trust.Decentralized processes in the global ecosystem such as in supply chain management,for example are perfect for this.Todays supply chain networks consist of multiple players that are connected and need to collaborate efficiently.There are numerous value-adding processes,handovers,and transactions involved before the products reach their final destination.Still,there are many unresolved issues regarding traceability,transparency,and accountability between involved parties since much of their work relies on trust and compliance.Supply chains are becoming more complex with the introduction of new logistics concepts enabled by integration of robotics and Internet of Things(IoT),such as autonomous delivery vehicles and product-monitoring devices.This has generated more data throughout the supply chain and raised concerns regarding transparency and security.Given support from adequate business processes,blockchain can add great value to supply chains,including improved traceability,security,automation,and speed.“Anything that can conceive of as a supply chain,blockchain can vastly improve its efficiency it doesnt matter if its sic people,numbers,data,money.”Ginni Rometty,former IBM CEOA public blockchain,also known as an open or permissionless blockchain,is one where anybody can join the network freely and establish a node.Because of their open nature,these blockchains must be secured with cryptography and a consensus system like proof of work(PoW),which is the variant used to secure the Bitcoin network.A private or permissioned blockchain,on the other hand,requires each node to be approved before joining.Because nodes are considered to be trusted,the layers of security do not need to be as robust.Blockchain provides immediate,shared,and completely transparent information stored on an immutable ledger that can be accessed only by permissioned network members.Among other things,a blockchain network can track orders,payments,accounts,and production.And because members share a single view of the truth,you can see all details of a transaction end to end.The blockchain trilemma states that it is virtually impossible for a system to simultaneously achieve equally high levels of decentralization,security,and scalability.Realistically,blockchain networks can only have two out of three factors.Highly decentralized public blockchain networks(e.g.,Bitcoin)have very high security but low scalability.More centralized private blockchain networks(e.g.,among supply chain partners)have high scalability and security but at the expense of low decentralization.What is a blockchain?In simple terms,a blockchain is a shared database or ledger.It is stored on many computers in a peer-to-peer network.Each node always has a complete copy of the blockchain.All nodes together have the task of verifying and documenting transactions:security and real-time transparency are“built in.”Source:Arthur D.Little1 1Scalability for public blockchains can drastically improve up to 1000 x if one is willing to accept a less decentralized and secure network(see Figure 5).There are many scaling solutions available,such as“sharding,”which splits the blockchain network into multiple smaller groups of nodes or parallel processing,or“payment channels,”temporary channels on which some transactions are transferred to reduce the load on the main chain and to improve throughput.The former will be implemented on the Ethereum Layer 1 blockchain,while the latter is implemented through the“Lightning network”as a Layer 2 scaling solution on the Bitcoin blockchain.The market size for blockchain applications in the non-financial industry is forecasted to reach$300 billion in 2030,growing exponentially with a 110 x increase from 2020.The technology is already being put to use across industries but is still in an early growth phase.Since the properties of blockchain lends itself for applications in most if not all sectors,the potential impact on business and society combined is huge.Although initial industrial usage of blockchains has had a slower than expected take-up rate,the results of the survey we conducted with Blockchain in Transport Alliance indicate that industry still views blockchain as potentially disruptive.Over 70%of respondents believe blockchain could increase process efficiency,and nearly 60%said it had the potential to disrupt business models.One specific sector with a large potential benefit from the use of blockchain technology is transportation.ADL worked with a large mobility provider to create immutable visibility of goods movement for all logistics partners involved in the supply chain(see Figure 6).Once changes of ownership are recorded through barcode scanning at the different trans-shipment points,data is securely stored in the blockchain and payments are automatically triggered.Self-executing smart contracts reduce processing of manual paperwork and help to prevent time delays,reduce human errors,and decrease the amount of additional work resulting from inefficient handling of data.Figure 5.Blockchain market&technology dashboardNote:(1)Industrial blockchain applications onlySource:Arthur D.Little,industry analyst forecastsNote:(1)Industrial blockchain applications onlySource:Arthur D.Little,industry analyst forecastsFigure 5.Blockchain market&technology dashboardGrowth multiple 20212030CAGR 20212030Market size12030 US$300 bn 60% 110 xTime to market0 yearsMarket growthLatency/block time(seconds)Throughput(Transactions per second TPS) 1,000 x-1,000 xTechnology developmentFigure 6.Blockchain technologySource:Arthur D.LittleSource:Arthur D.LittleFigure 6.Blockchain technologyTO:Blockchain value-addFROM:Supply chain challengesTransparency&trustProcess efficiencyLimited track-and-trace capabilitiesPermanent visibility through real-time auditsTraceabilityMistrust involved in data sharingEstablishment of“single version of truth”SecurityInefficient handling of dataSelf-executing processes by smart contractsAutomatizationRegulatory compliance requires fraud checksImmutable data reduces need for intermediariesSpeed1 2REPORT:TIME TO RENEW YOUR PILOTS LICENSE?ARTHUR D.LITTLEThere are numerous examples of large industrial companies that have implemented blockchain technology in their operations.Renault,for instance,recently implemented blockchain to manage its entire supply chain documentation.The reason behind the decision to do so was that blockchain brings improved traceability,transparency,and accountability.The sharing of goods data is accurate and happens immediately between participants,meaning less time is spent on inefficient tasks such as documentation,trading files,emailing,or calling each other,and more time is spent on higher value-add activities.Inconsistencies in data that took hours in the past to resolve are now eliminated.As a result,Renault now has an increased transparency between partners and an increased reactivity vis-vis customers.Another example is Maersks TradeLens platform,which applies blockchain technology to global supply chains via its trade document module,enabling secure cross-business information exchange.This helps to prevent delays that result from inaccurate documentation or slow information exchange.In addition,experience has demonstrated that warranty-handling(e.g.,automating insurance payouts)and demand-planning processes between manufacturers and suppliers can be significantly streamlined by drawing on secure information exchange and self-executing contracts.To summarize,we are confident that blockchains will play a key part in enabling crucial characteristics in supply chains across the globe in the areas of security,traceability,automation,and speed thus securing trust at a time of geopolitical fragmentation.What are the use cases of blockchain technology?Outside of supply chains and logistics,there are many other use case examples across industries:-Automotive maintenance logs,on-demand services.-Consumer&retail certification of origin,loyalty management.-Energy&utilities energy trading,securitization of assets.-Healthcare health records,staff credential verification,IoT security for remote monitoring.-Telecom fraud management,seamless authentication.-Public services passport and visa administration,real estate registry.Source:Arthur D.LittleSuccess story powered by blockchainA successful example of blockchain-enabled process enhancement is Switzerland-based container specialist SkyCell.The company developed a tailor-made transport solution for biopharmaceuticals offering certainty where trust reaches its limits.Biopharmaceuticals are medical drugs based on proteins and are therefore exceptionally temperature sensitive.To ensure quality,no temperature deviations are acceptable when shipped.SkyCell offers insulated containers equipped with temperature sensors that record the inside temperature during delivery.When such a containers barcode is scanned at a trans-shipment point,in addition to standard shipping information,temperature data is securely stored in the blockchain.This provides clients with evidence of a maintained cold chain and integrity of the product.Source:Arthur D.Little,SkyCell131 3QUANTUM COMPUTING Quantum computing is among the most hyped technology topics at the moment and is on every tech giants agenda.IBM,Google,Microsoft,and others are aggressively investing in quantum computing.Such computers process data at massive speed with great power savings,which ultimately redefines what is possible in the AI and ML fields.The last few years have seen an acceleration of activity in quantum computing,with venture capital increasing 50%to over$1 billion from 2020 to 2021 and estimates of total global investment now reaching$25 billion.12At present,the technology is not yet ready for practical use.There are still massive technical challenges to overcome,and it will still be a few years before the hardware will be available for businesses.However,as soon as the technology is available,there will be a massive disruption of the IT world,and with it the application world as well.We advise businesses to prepare for this point in time now to avoid being left behind if and when a breakthrough occurs.The process by which qubits can be harnessed to perform calculations is nothing like that of a conventional computer,and the technical challenges to build a usable quantum computing device are immense.Without some in-depth knowledge in quantum physics and mathematics,it is quite impossible to really grasp how it works.But its not necessary to know how a modern computer works,either.What is crucial is to know how best to use the technology.12 Meige,Albert,Rick Eagar,and Lucas Knnecke.“Quantum Computing.”Arthur D.Little Viewpoint,2022.“Our machine performed the target computation in 200 seconds,and from measurements in our experiment we determined that it would take the worlds fastest supercomputer 10,000 years to produce a similar output.”John Martinis CSO,Quantum HW,GoogleA common misconception about quantum computing is that it will ultimately replace conventional computing because of its much greater processing power.This is not the case.In fact,quantum computing will only ever be superior to conventional computing for solving certain types of complex problems.These are problems involving systems with multiple elements,variables,and interactions,in which the solution complexity quickly scales up exponentially beyond the reach of conventional computing:so-called intractable problems.Quantum computers are suitable for intractable problems because they have a theoretical ability to perform exponentially increasing numbers of calculations simultaneously:a quantum processor with N qubits can theoretically perform 2N simultaneous calculations,so each additional qubit doubles processing power.Conventional computing,even if Moores law were to continue forever,could never achieve this.What is quantum computing?Quantum computing relies on the principles of quantum mechanics,which differs from classical computations,where data is encoded as either 0 or 1.In quantum computing,computations are made with qubits,which,due to quantum physics properties,can be both 0 and 1 simultaneously.The benefits are that many calculations can be performed simultaneously.What a computer today does in thousands of years,a quantum computer does in minutes.Source:Arthur D.Little,Analytics VidhyaWhat are the use cases of quantum computing?-Simulation complex physical and molecular simulations,which could enable digital development of new materials,chemical compounds,and drugs without the need for lab experimentation.-Optimization optimization of complex systems,such as logistics planning,distribution operations,energy grid systems,financial systems,telecoms networks,and many others.-Machine learning AI and ML applications require very high processing power,stretching the limits of conventional computing.-Cryptography a quantum algorithm has already been developed to conduct rapid integer factoring,which poses a disruptive threat to conventional cryptographic protection approaches.Source:Arthur D.Little1 4REPORT:TIME TO RENEW YOUR PILOTS LICENSE?ARTHUR D.LITTLEAlthough commercial breakthrough of quantum computing remains many years away,a lot of groundwork is being done(see Figure 7).Behind Big Tech there are now more than 450 quantum computing start-ups worldwide.The roadmap for completion of new prototypes promised by the ecosystem is extensive,with at least 20 new devices to be announced by the key players between now and 2030.A conservative assumption would be that the key milestone of achieving a fault-tolerant large-scale quantum computer might occur in the period 2030-2040.One promising avenue in the shorter term is hybrid quantum computing,in which quantum computing is used as an accelerator for a conventional high-performance computer to run specially designed hybrid algorithms.But quantum computing also comes with a challenge:mature quantum computers will be able to break the most widely used security protocols in the world.For example,until very recently,methods of encryption based on prime factorization were considered unbreakable and were used to safeguard everything from email to banking to credit cards.Quantum algorithms can break these systems.Given the accelerated advancements of quantum computing,everything secured with prime factorization could become insecure in the years to come.Developing and migrating to“quantum safe”encryption methods will therefore be of significant importance.From an economic point of view,growth projections for the quantum computing market up to 2030 vary from less than$5 billion to more than$60 billion,depending on the source(see Figure 8).What does all this mean for businesses?Even if the hardware is not yet widely available,it is nevertheless advisable to start dealing with the topic now:Figure 7.Quantum computing application timescalesNIST:US National Institute of Standards and Technology;PQC:Post-Quantum CryptographySource:Arthur D.LittleGenomic sequencingElectronic structure simulationLarge molecular simulationLarge-scale drug discoverySupply chain optimizationLarge-scale fraud detectionSmall molecular simulationRisk mngt.&assessmentBattery chemistry&catalysisSmall-scale protein foldingMaterial design simulationPrice predictionsAutonomous vehicle navigationSmall-scale molecular dockingSmall-scale drug discoveryInvestment portfolio optimizationVehicle routingNIST standards of PQCLogistics planningSmall-scale fraud detectionWeather predictionNIST:US National Institute of Standards and Technology;PQC:Post-Quantum CryptographySource:Arthur D.LittleFigure 7.Quantum computing application timescalesSooner(2024 )Later(2029 )OptimizationSimulationMachine learning(ML)CryptographyFigure 8.Quantum computing market&technology dashboardNote:(1)Only for very specific and aligned problem solving Source:Arthur D.Little,industry analyst forecastsNote:1)Only for very specific and aligned problem solvingSource:Arthur D.Little,industry analyst forecastsFigure 8.Quantum computing market&technology dashboardGrowth multiple 20212030CAGR 20212030Market size2030 US$30 bn 30% 15xTime to market10-20yearsMarket growthYearly performance increase(#qubits)Performance factor vs.conventional computer1 250mx 2xTechnology development1 51.Quantum computers will suddenly be available in a few years.There will then be a real run on the services and the available experts.Therefore,we recommend that you start building up the competence in your company now.Otherwise you will be left behind later.2.Conventional software no longer runs on quantum computers because the architecture is completely different.But software prepared for quantum computers also runs on conventional hardware.Therefore,it should already be switched to future-oriented software in certain segments.3.Quantum computingoptimized algorithms are already available today and can accelerate certain processes on conventional hardware.This software can then be run immediately on the new hardware later and allows an immediate significant acceleration.Forward-thinking organizations see quantum as an opportunity to leap ahead of the competition.Of large enterprises surveyed,40%are already experimenting with quantum computing.1313 D-Wave Systems,451 Research,accessed December 2022.CELL&GENE THERAPYImagine a world where your health situation was not determined by chance and luck at birth.For example,a world where it wasnt possible to be born with,or to develop later in life,faulty genes that cause diseases such as cancer,heart disease,hemophilia,or blindness.In the future,people may have greater control over their own fates.It may be possible,in fact,to level the playing field.The convergence of next-generation DNA sequencing,AI,and gene editing has the potential to transform healthcare.These advances could accelerate the pace of scientific discovery,personalizing medicine to cure disease instead of masking symptoms.Cell therapy and gene therapy are overlapping fields of biomedical research and treatment.Both therapies aim to treat,prevent,or potentially cure diseases,and both approaches have the potential to alleviate the underlying causes of genetic and acquired diseases,though they work differently.Genes and cells are intimately related.Within the cells of our bodies,there are thousands of genes that provide the information to produce specific proteins that the cells consist of.Cells are the basic building blocks of all living things;the human body is composed of trillions.Success story powered by quantum computingMaking the switch from coal to natural gas will improve air quality and reduce carbon intensity.But the issue isnt just one of production its also a problem of transportation.In 2021,more than 500 LNG(liquefied natural gas)ships were used to transport critical fuel supplies across the oceans.Finding optimal routes for a fleet of such ships can be a mind-bendingly complex optimization problem.Even with a simplified problem involving just dozens of ships,the number of possible combinations of different decisions can reach 21,000,000.Thats greater than the total number of atoms in the universe.Quantum computers take a new approach to addressing this sort of complexity.Industry leaders like Exxon are getting involved now to explore how blending classical and quantum computing techniques might solve big,complex,pressing global challenges.Source:Arthur D.Little,IBM13What is cell and gene therapy?Cell therapy aims to treat diseases by restoring or altering certain sets of cells or by using cells to carry a therapy through the body.With cell therapy,cells are cultivated or modified outside the body before being injected into the patient.The cells may originate from the patient(autologous cells)or a donor(allogeneic cells).Gene therapy aims to treat diseases by replacing,inactivating,or introducing genes into cells,either inside the body(in vivo)or outside of the body(ex vivo).Some therapies are considered both cell and gene therapies.These therapies work by altering genes in specific types of cells and inserting them into the body.Source:Arthur D.Little,American Society of Gene&Cell Therapy,US Food&Agriculture Administration(FDA)1 6REPORT:TIME TO RENEW YOUR PILOTS LICENSE?ARTHUR D.LITTLEThe genes provide the information that creates this blueprint,enabling and giving different cells their different purposes.Groups of many cells make up the tissues and organs of the body,including muscles,bones,and blood.Sometimes certain genes,or parts of them,are defective or completely missing from birth.This is typically referred to as a genetically inherited mutation.In addition,healthy genes can mutate(i.e.,change)over the course of our lives.These acquired mutations can be caused by environmental exposures.The good news is that most of these genetic mutations do not cause disease in fact,it is because of beneficial mutations that humans evolved into what we are today.However,it is inevitable that some mutations(either inherited or spontaneous)can cause,for example,developmental disorders,neurological diseases,and cancer.“Imagine a world where no life is limited by genetic disease and the ambition of gene therapy to treat or possibly prevent disease is realized for the millions of people living with an inherited condition.”Jeff Marrazzo Founder,Spark TherapeuticsThe scientific field for gene therapy products is fast-paced and rapidly evolving and is now finally ushering in a new approach to the treatment of cancer and other serious and rare diseases.The first gene therapy targeting cancer was approved by the US Food and Drug Administration(FDA)in 2017.Fast-forward five years and the number of cell and gene therapy treatments approved by the FDA has jumped to 27.The wide array of therapies includes one for spinal muscular atrophy and others for cartilage defects of the knee,retinal dystrophy,several types of cancer,and thermal burns.The cell therapy field is moving fast as well.One of the most widely known successful cell-based gene therapies,CAR-T(chimeric antigen receptor T-cell),involves the use of genetically reengineered versions of a patients own T-cells to find cancer cells and defeat them.As of 2022,there are six CAR-T therapies licensed for use by the FDA,almost all for cancer indications.CAR-T has pushed the boundaries of medicine,and the success observed in patient treatment has created interest in the use of CAR-T to treat other types of tumors,including solid ones,as well as other genetic diseases.14 Global CAR T Cell Therapy Market Opportunity&Clinical Pipeline Insight 2028.Kuick Research,May 2022.This is evidenced by the large number of completed and ongoing clinical trials reported by the National Institutes of Health(NIH)involving the use of CAR-T(700),with the large majority of these targeting a range of cancers and a smaller share targeting chronic,infectious,and autoimmune diseases.The global CAR-T cell therapy market opportunity alone is expected to surpass$15 billion by 2028.14 An important aspect of realizing this potential will be scaling up using allogeneic(cells from a donor)or“off-the-shelf”CAR-T,which has moved into early-phase clinical testing with the hope that it will offer many advantages over autologous(cells from the patient)regimens.The key advantages are:shorter manufacturing time,lower cost,and a more potent therapy using healthy donor cells.Even with the massive disruption of the healthcare sector caused by COVID-19,the pace of activity in cell and gene therapies has not slowed(see Figure 9);if anything,it has accelerated in the past year.In 2020,total financing in regenerative medicine doubled to almost$20 billion from just under$10 billion the year before,according to the Alliance for Regenerative Medicine.What are the use cases of cell and gene therapy?Cell therapy products include cellular immunotherapies,cancer vaccines,stem cells,and more.Human gene therapy seeks to modify the expression of a gene or to alter the biological properties of living cells for therapeutic use.Indications targeted by the 20 FDA-approved cell and gene therapy treatments today include:-Cancer multiple myeloma,B-cell lymphoma,mantle cell lymphoma,prostate cancer.-Rare diseases spinal muscular atrophy,cartilage defects of the knee,retinal dystrophy,thermal burns,nasolabial fold wrinkles,congenital athymia,-thalassemia.Source:Arthur D.Little,American Society of Gene&Cell Therapy,Center for Biologics Evaluation and Research(CBER),FDA1 7Cell and gene therapies are examples of“curative treatments;”time-limited treatments that remove the symptoms of a disease through permanent correction of the underlying condition.In contrast,a treatment in which a patient remains healthy only with the continuous taking of a pill,injection,or infusion only masks the actual condition,temporarily hiding symptoms or stopping disease progression for the moment.This is not curative.Essentially,patients who previously had to rely on ongoing medication can now be cured through specific,time-limited courses of treatment,transforming their lives.Once a patient who suffers from a particular condition has been successfully treated,the need for additional medical care is significantly reduced,and thus the product lifecycle(medical treatment)will drastically shorten putting a high premium on speed and creativity in clinical and regulatory approaches and on replenishment of the pipeline.With curative treatments,payers expenditure drastically shifts from ongoing,long-term,and relatively low-cost drugs to large,front-loaded therapy costs.As a consequence,the revenue profile for therapy providers will shift accordingly,implying a need to change the pricing strategy in order to recoup investments over a far shorter time span.To summarize,this new technology will disrupt the entire healthcare ecosystem and lead to a number of consequences for patients,policy makers,payers,providers,and pharma companies alike.The wider relevance of cell and gene therapy for business leaders across industry sectors is more apparent than it may seem.Without it,and specifically without the mRNA vaccines for COVID-19 that it enabled,more severe disruption of both the demand and supply side of the economy arguably would have impacted businesses,irrespective of industry and geography,considerably more than it did and still does.Furthermore,advances in biomedical therapy will contribute to more curative treatments,better medical outcomes,and improved vaccines.These will accrue as value for business and society at large.Figure 9.Cell&gene therapy market&technology dashboard Source:Arthur D.Little,industry analyst forecastsSource:Arthur D.Little,industry analyst forecastsFigure 9.Cell&gene therapy market&technology dashboardGrowth multiple 20212030CAGR 20212030Market size2030 US$60 bn 30 xTime to market0 yearsMarket growthExpected#of approved cell and gene therapies(in 2024 vs.average per year 20172021)Cost reduction to sequence a humane genome in past 10 years-20 x 25xTechnology developmentSuccess story powered by gene therapy CAR-T therapy involves the use of genetically reengineered versions of a patients own T-cells to find cancer cells and defeat them.As of 2022,there are six CAR-T therapies licensed for use by the FDA.CAR-T has pushed the boundaries of medicine,and the success observed in patient treatment has created interest in the use of CAR-T to treat other types of tumors,including solid ones,as well as other genetic diseases.This is evidenced by the large number of clinical trials involving the use of CAR-T(1000),with the large majority of these targeting a range of cancers and a smaller share targeting chronic,infectious,and autoimmune diseases.Source:Arthur D.Little,ClinicalTrials.gov131 8REPORT:TIME TO RENEW YOUR PILOTS LICENSE?ARTHUR D.LITTLE1 94.TURNING TECHNOLOGY INTO BUSINESS IMPAC TIn todays complex and uncertain world,only organizations that understand and harness technology to become more agile,innovative,productive,and sustainable will succeed.Transforming through technology requires new skills,capabilities,and leadership,combined with the ability to understand and apply technology where it delivers its greatest benefit.ONLY ORGANIZATIONS THAT UNDERSTAND AND HARNESS TECHNOLOGY TO BECOME MORE AGILE,INNOVATIVE,PRODUCTIVE,AND SUSTAINABLE WILL SUCCEEDBusiness leaders should therefore begin by analyzing the short-,medium-,and long-term technology trends that are most relevant within their organization to drive future success.Leading companies understand that this requires a continuous and systematic approach to yield tangible results over time(see Figure 10).TECHNOLOGY TRENDS RADARTo facilitate monitoring and assessment of technologies in fields relevant to the company or organization in question,ADL successfully deploys a“technology trends radar”(see Figure 11).In essence,it brings strategic and tactical clarity on how and when to leverage technologies depending on maturity level and expected value creation.Within each field,technologies are classified and prioritized accordingly from“adopt”through“trial”and“assess”to“hold.”Depending on purpose and need,the scope of the technologies included on the radar varies:-Multi-industry broad outlook covering multiple focus industries to discover technology trends across industry borders.-Industry-tailored focusing on the evolving technology trends impacting one industry.-Single-field focusing on a single technology field(e.g.,AI and its use cases).Figure 10.High-level approach to leverage technology trends Source:Arthur D.LittleSource:Arthur D.LittleFigure 10.High-level approach to leverage technology trendsContinuous&systematiciteration&action2 0REPORT:TIME TO RENEW YOUR PILOTS LICENSE?ARTHUR D.LITTLEThe radar can be used to track trends over time,conduct deep dives in specific fields or trends,as well as assessing/benchmarking your companys presence.Similar approaches can be used at a national level through technology foresight15 to identify areas of technology that can form the basis of a national innovation strategy.15 Khoury,Raymond,et al.“Technology Foresight:Anticipating Future Impact.”Arthur D.Little Viewpoint,2022.Assessing and classifying the technologies into adopt,trial,assess,and hold,in each technology field,enables business leaders to:-Understand the inflection points of each technology field and their implication for business and society(e.g.creating new business models that transcend industries,solving social problems).Figure 11.Technology trends radarSource:Arthur D.LittleFigure 12.Technology trends radar exampleSource:The Trend Tech Radar 2021 Munich Re and ERGO,in partnership with Arthur D.Little Source:The Trend Tech Radar 2021 Munich Re and ERGO,in partnership with Arthur D.Little Figure 12.Technology trends radarHaptic technologies0Personalized medicine Enhanced realityDeepfake defense Population healthVirtual assistants Biometric recognition Behavioral analyticsRobotic healthDigital identity Human enhancement Robotic revolutionData fabricFoodtechDigital twinSmart textilesAutonomous things Precision farming Open dataOpen APISmart spacesIndustrial loTReal-time paymentDigital health services Artificial general intelligence Al coding Al chipsAl-enabled drug discovery&development Synthetic dataReinforcement learning Explainable ML GPT-3Smart cybersecurity Knowledge graphs AutoMLMachine-drivendecisions Conversational user interfaces Natural languageprocessingComputer vision 6GVaccine disruptionQuantum computingHydrogen economy Micronuclear power plantsVolumetric display In-space economyNeuromorphic hardware Programmable materials Brain-computer interface Low code/no codeAdvanced batteries Microsatellites Cloud edgeDistributed ledger 3D printing 5GAl diagnostics&therapeuticsSource:Arthur D.LittleFigure 11.ADL Technology trends radarTrend evolutionAdoptAdoptbroadlyTrialInitiative in affected unitsAssessEvaluationneededHoldWatch listHoldAssessTrialAdopt2 1-Identify non-technological key issues for each field(e.g.,changing consumer behavior).-Devise a plan for how to access people and organizations that have a deep understanding and ownership of the key technologies in each field(e.g.,internally,externally).-Design the most appropriate methods to acquire key technologies(e.g.,make,buy,partner).The insurance groups Munich Re and ERGO released the Tech Trend Radar 2021 supported by ADL(see Figure 12),including future technology trends,use cases,and their corresponding(technology-aligned and enabled)insurance solutions offerings.Developing a technology trends radar will help organizations identify new growth opportunities and“no-regrets moves,”16 preventing organizations from making fundamental mistakes,such as jumping on technology bandwagons where they are unlikely to derive value.Indeed,through its rigorous analysis,a technology trends radar can highlight not only where to focus but also where not to invest,and identify which areas can be addressed through technology adoption rather than technology leadership.Ultimately,the technology radar is a tool to help make decisions on where to place the next business“bets.”However,although it is a powerful framework,the technology trends radar as described in this Report needs to be understood in the right context.The technology deep dives behind the technology radar dots should look beyond the science maturity,pace of innovation,IP landscape,and key players to give the radar meaning and value.16“No-regret moves”are defined as strategic decisions that have positive payoffs in any future scenarios.These may be building capability or capacity;investing in technology platforms that are key enablers;or technologies,features,or services that will give the organization the“right to play”in future markets.See:Courtney,Hugh,et al,“Strategy Under Uncertainty.”Harvard Business Review,NovemberDecember 1997.Working with marketing and commercial teams to provide the external business context and understanding the organizations internal capabilities and their existing relationships and partnerships in the innovation ecosystem will help the company determine the strategic route that creates the best value.This may mean exploring new business models,developing new capabilities,or finding new companies to partner with to combine attributes needed to develop radically new solutions.Indeed,the findings from a technology trends radar may necessitate a reevaluation of our understanding of the competitive landscape and how to win.In an era of technology acceleration and convergence,developing partnerships with“frenemies”to combine core technologies,capabilities,and reach to fully exploit new technologies or new markets faster is becoming increasingly common.Thus,successful deployment ultimately hinges on the individual organizations strategy,capabilities,resources,processes,and organization.Upstream,a technology and innovation strategy needs to be developed and aligned with the business strategy.Downstream,capabilities,resources,processes,and organizational models need to be sharpened to leverage the results from the technology trends radar and ensure the commensurate value creation.2 2REPORT:TIME TO RENEW YOUR PILOTS LICENSE?ARTHUR D.LITTLE2 3In the current challenging business environment,where the promise of growth through development and adoption of disruptive and exponential technologies is affected by geopolitical and macroeconomic trends,a clear and concise“helicopter view”is critical to inform strategic corporate decision-making.A technology radar becomes an indispensable piloting instrument to navigate technological complexity and geopolitical and macroeconomic trends.To stay ahead of technology trends that will shape the future success of the company,business leaders need not only activate their radar,but also build capabilities to correctly interpret incoming echoes and successfully use the information for navigation.A CLEAR AND CONCISE“HELICOPTER VIEW”IS CRITICAL TO INFORM STRATEGIC CORPORATE DECISION-MAKING17 Davies,Colin,et al.“Your Most Valuable Asset:Insight into Resource&Competence Management.”Arthur D.Little Viewpoint,June 2015.From knowledge and experience across multiple industries,ADL has identified three critical success factors:1.Build and maintain critical competencies-Boards and CEOs should commit to invest in technology competence building the foundation for identifying which technologies to invest in and which to not invest in.-Early planning in developing a technology competence roadmap can save a lot of regrets later.Too many companies only carry out succession planning to maintain current competencies,but do not build capabilities for the future to guide recruitment,acquisition,and training.Most importantly,new capability champions can then be identified to lead the creation and exploitation of these new capabilities.17-To ensure strategical and tactical relevance,technology competencies must be renewed on a recurring basis.CONCLUSION24REPORT:TIME TO RENEW YOUR PILOTS LICENSE?ARTHUR D.LITTLE2.Track strategic initiatives and keep learning -A high-performing board and CEO should not only be able to deploy the radar,but also understand the flight dynamics and where the engines are taking the plane to regularly adjust the flight plan.-Stop relying on someone elses radar to guide you through the standard approach.Build your own on-board radar to create a different perspective.Some companies that perform best in dynamic environments where technology is changing rapidly focus not on product success(a lagging indicator)but on“What have we learned?”and“How does that help us improve?”Without dedicated experimentation to get data and insights that none of your competitors have,you have only the commonly available view of the industry and cannot create an alternative flight plan.-There is a big difference between investing in new products and service development and investing in new capabilities.Most companies lack a good understanding of their own technical capabilities and often underestimate the capabilities of competitors or the ecosystem they could be leveraging.These can be a source of strategic partnership initiatives.-The board needs systems to create transparency and a“single source of truth”in technology investments and capabilities,so it can track and challenge technology capability-building initiatives to ensure these align with the companys overall strategy.18“Digital Transformation Pulse:Connected Industry.”Arthur D.Little,Telia,and Ericsson,2022.19 Based on findings from the Arthur D.Little Global Innovation Excellence Benchmark v9.0,2023.3.Devote time to ensure long-term success-As these questions are complex,the focus must center on value-driving technology,debating alternative strategies and evaluating the allocation of resources.-High-performing boards and CEOs use a diverse range of functional expertise to evaluate technology options and devote twice as much time on strategically important issues,like technology management,as do low performers.18 This means both having meaningful data and investing leadership time in regular meetings to manage this.19A TECHNOLOGY RADAR BECOMES AN INDISPENSABLE PILOTING INSTRUMENT TO NAVIGATE TECHNOLOGICAL COMPLEXITY AND GEOPOLITICAL AND MACROECONOMIC TRENDS2 5NOTES2 6REPORT:TIME TO RENEW YOUR PILOTS LICENSE?ARTHUR D.LITTLEARTHUR D.LITTLE2 72 7Arthur D.Little has been at the forefront of innovation since 1886.We are an acknowledged thought leader in linking strategy,innovation and transformation in technology-intensive and converging industries.We navigate our clients through changing business ecosystems to uncover new growth opportunities.We enable our clients to build innovation capabilities and transform their organizations.Our consultants have strong practical industry experience combined with excellent knowledge of key trends and dynamics.ADL is present in the most important business centers around the world.We are proud to serve most of the Fortune 1000 companies,in addition to other leading firms and public sector organizations.For further information,please visit .Copyright Arthur D.Little 2023.All rights reserved.

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ATD Research：2022培养混合团队白皮书（英文版）（15页）.pdf

2022 by ASTD DBA Association for Talent Development(ATD)All rights reserved.No part of this publication may be reproduced,distributed,or transmitted in any form or by any means,including photocopying,recording,or other electronic or mechanical methods,without the prior written permission of the publisher,except in the case of brief quotations embodied in critical reviews and certain other noncommercial uses permitted by copyright law.For permission requests,write to ATD Research,1640 King Street,Alexandria,VA 22314.Ordering Information Research reports published by ATD can be purchased by visiting ATDs website at td.org/research or by calling 800.628.2783 or 703.683.8100.ATD Product Code:792202-WPe-ISBN:978-1-562860-01-1Publication Date:March 2022ATD Editorial Staff Associate Director,ATD Research:Maria Ho Manager,ATD Press:Melissa Jones Cover and Interior Design:Shirley E.M.Raybuck Production Manager:Dirk Cassard1Developing Hybrid Teams Whitepaper Survey OverviewTarget Survey PopulationThe target population for this research was talent development professionals across different organizations and industries.Participants from 133 unique organizations with hybrid teams completed the survey.Survey InstrumentThe survey was composed of 31 questions including those related to the demographics of the respondents.ProcedureATD Research distributed a link to an online survey to the target population in December 2021.The survey closed in January 2022.2ATD Research ReportAbout the SponsorA Note From GP StrategiesThe explosion of hybrid work has moved what was once an employee accommodation to a pur-poseful,strategic,company-wide approach.However,a hybrid workforce has challengesreal and perceived.There are concerns about how employees will continue to collaborate and inno-vate if they are not together.There is a heightened awareness of digital fatigue and personal well-being while others wonder if productivity and effectiveness can be sustained.Business leaders worry that the organizations culture will suffer if employees are physically scattered.While leaders need to understand the lived reality of each member of their team,they also need to be mindful of how to drive team performance as a whole.The same critical elements of an in-person team create a strong,high-performing hybrid team:building trust,creating connection,seeking alignment,and driving results.Whats different is the context in which these elements are applied and,as a result,the nuances of application.GP Strategies is proud to support ATD in leading this research on building hybrid teams.We believe that the impact of the hybrid work explosion will reverberate for many years.We also believe the organizations that embrace hybrid and plan for it thoughtfully will be ahead of the game in terms of long-term viability.They will be successful in achieving their goals and fostering an environment where people want to come to work each day,no matter where they do their work.About GP StrategiesGP Strategies is a leading workforce transformation partnera truly dedicated global provider serving 25 percent of the Global 500 and delivering custom learning solutions from the front line to the C-suite.Were at our best when driving innovationintegrating leading technolo-gies,developing new learning paradigms,and instituting fresh business processes and mea-surement approaches.This innovation and transformation focus,combined with deep listening,workforce exper-tise,and customer-centricity,delivers superior business and operational results.Whether your transformation requires a change in employee performance and mindsets,integrating a framework for hybrid teams to be successful,implementation of learning technologies,or refinement of critical processes,GP Strategies is a transformation partner you can trust.To learn more,visit .3Developing Hybrid Teams Whitepaper Executive Summary1 Andrea Alexander,Rich Cracknell,Aaron De Smet,Meredith Langstaff,Mihir Mysore,and Dan Ravid,“What Executives Are Saying About the Future of Hybrid Work,”McKinsey and Company,May 17,2021, COVID-19 was declared a pandemic in early 2020,many employees who could perform their jobs(or parts of their jobs)from home began working remotely either all or some of the time.Now,in 2022,leaders are looking ahead and trying to imagine what the post-pandemic workplace will look like.Many expect a hybrid workplace to emerge.According to a McKinsey and Company survey of 100 executives,nine out of 10 organi-zations planned to combine in-person and remote working in the future.However,most didnt yet have a detailed plan for hybrid work.1To help organizations better understand the landscape of hybrid teams and best practices,this report takes a close look at organizations that currently have hybrid teams in place.The research,which draws on a survey of 133 organizations with hybrid teams,delivers benchmarking data on the current and expected future state of hybrid teams and high-lights best practices associated with better organizational performance.A hybrid team is one where a manager oversees employees who work from a central office or location as well as employees who work remotely at another location(for example,a home office or in the field).A hybrid team can also include employees who rotate between being in the central office or location and another location(for example,employees who work in the central office three days a week and remotely two days a week).At the average participating organization,69 percent of managers oversaw hybrid teams.Before the COVID-19 pandemic,this figure was only 20 percent.In particular,the number of employees who rotate between a central office and another location rose dramatically.This change appears to be here to remaina large majority of participants expected the number of hybrid teams in their organization to either remain the same or increase in the next five years.4ATD Research ReportAmong the survey participants,23 percent were considered high performers.These organizations were performing well across several key business areas and had talent development functions that made strong contributions to that performance.The research identified practices related to hybrid teams with statistically significant connections to high performance.For example,organi-zations that provided hybrid team man-agers with hybrid team manager training(either through assets specifically for hybrid managers or a combination of assets on virtual management and tradi-tional management)were more likely to be high performers.Employees who work on hybrid teams benefited from training as well,particularly in collaboration and communication in hybrid settings.Organizations must also ensure that they provide hybrid teams with the technology they need to succeed in a hybrid work environment.Of concern,about a quarter of organizations still do not provide employ-ees with virtual meeting room software.Virtual meeting rooms can improve teamwork,engagement,and productivity for virtual teams while creating an even playing field for in-office and remote team members.Organizations that lacked this key technology per-formed significantly worse.Defining High PerformersThis report identifies practices associated with being a high performer.Organizations were considered to be high performers if they met two criteria:They were performing as well as or better than their competitors in financial performance,customer and client satisfaction,employee engagement,and growth potential for the next five years.Their talent development functions helped them achieve their business goals to a high extent.Developing Hybrid Teams:Combining Office and Remote Work takes a closer look at hybrid teams and their growth.It also looks at factors such as who determines where employees on hybrid teams work,expectations for regular in-person meetings of team members at central locations,and the tools organizations provide to support hybrid teams.It also looks at train-ing for hybrid team managers and employees.To supplement the data,this report includes examples and insights from leading companies and subject matter experts.At the mean organization,69 percent of managers oversaw hybrid teams.Before the COVID-19 pandemic,this figure was only 20 percent.5Developing Hybrid Teams Whitepaper WhitepaperThis section shares key information about research participants,including demographics.It also discusses the top motivators and barriers related to expanding the use of hybrid teams.Finally,it shares key findings from the research.About the ParticipantsATD Research surveyed 133 talent development professionals at organizations with hybrid teams.Of these,88 percent were managers or above.Slightly over a third of respondents(35 percent)represented small organizations with fewer than 500 employees,and 45 percent were from medium-sized organizations employing between 500 and 9,999 employees.The remaining 20 percent of respondents were from large organizations with 10,000 or more employees.Among participating organizations,23 percent were high performers.This distinction means they were performing well across several key business areas(financial performance,customer and client satisfaction,employee engagement,and growth potential for the next five years)and had talent development functions that made strong contributions to that performance.The remaining 77 percent did not meet these criteria.Drivers for Using Hybrid TeamsTo understand what drives the use of hybrid teams,ATD asked participants why their organization had chosen to incorporate hybrid teams over fully traditional or fully remote teams.As Figure 1 illustrates,the most common response by far was safety precautions FIGURE 1Top DriversIn situations where your organization chooses to use a hybrid team over a fully traditional or fully remote team,what are the most common reasons?(Choose all that apply.)Safety precautions due to COVID-1975%Improved employee satisfaction and retention67%Geographically dispersed operations45cess to a wider or more diverse talent pool45%(Only the top four responses are shown.)6ATD Research Reportdue to the COVID-19 pandemic,which was selected by 75 percent of respondents.Another 67 percent named improved employee satisfaction and retention.Slightly less than half mentioned geographically dispersed operations and the ability to access a wider or more diverse talent pool.Challenges With Hybrid TeamsATD also sought to identify what challenges might prevent organizations from adding hybrid teams.The top barrier,cited by 75 percent of respondents,was concerns about a potential loss of collaboration or teamwork(Figure 2).The second biggest barrier to hybrid teams,according to 43 percent of participants,was concerns about potential productivity drops.This report looks more closely at these challenges and discusses how organizations can overcome these barriers in a later section.FIGURE 2Top BarriersWhat are the top barriers your organization faces to expanding the number of hybrid teams?(Choose all that apply.)Concerns about potential loss of collaboration or teamwork75%Concerns about potential productivity drops43%Concerns about potential lack of fairness in work arrangements(e.g.,who is allowed to work remotely)34%Concerns about potential trust issues33%(Only the top four responses are shown.)Key FindingsSeveral key findings emerged from this research:The top driver of hybrid team use was the COVID-19 pandemic.This was supported by the fact that before the COVID-19 pandemic,only 20 percent of managers oversaw a hybrid team at the average organization.Today,the number is 69 percent.At the mean organization,about a third of employees fell into each category:workers who were fully in the office,workers who were fully remote,and workers who rotated between the office and another location.However,hybrid team use was expected to continue in the post-pandemic future.Among participating organizations,47 percent expected their use of hybrid teams to stay the same five years from now,while 34 percent expected an increase and 19 per-cent expected a decrease.7Developing Hybrid Teams Whitepaper Providing teams with basic tools to succeed in the virtual environment is crucial.About a quarter of organizations did not provide employees with virtual meeting room software and those organizations were less likely to be high performers.Organizations that provided hybrid team managers with manager training that covered both traditional and virtual employees(either in the form of assets specifi-cally for hybrid managers or as a combination of virtual management and traditional management assets)were more likely to be high performers.Training for managers on team building in a hybrid setting was associated with better organizational perfor-mance,which is consistent with the finding that the biggest skills gap for hybrid team managers was in team building.Training employees in hybrid teams on how to collaborate and communicate in a hybrid setting was associated with a higher likelihood of being a high performer,as was training on how to leverage technology tools to work more effectively in a hybrid setting.Identifying Statistically Significant DifferencesThis report often notes whether the differences between two groups is significant at a level of p 0.05.A significance of p 0.05 implies a less than 5 percent probability that the difference was a result of chance,and one can be 95 percent confident that the results represent a statistically significant relationship.8ATD Research ReportAction PlanThere is no question that the number of hybrid teams has expanded rapidly,particularly in light of the COVID-19 pandemic.However,hybrid teams also appear to be here to stay,with more than 75 percent of organizations expecting the number of hybrid teams to stay the same or increase in a five-year horizon.Therefore,its critical that organizations position their hybrid teams for continued success.ATD asked organizations about their use of hybrid teams and how they ensured that their managers and staff had the skills necessary to thrive and deliver positive business results in a hybrid team environment.Based on this data,this report makes several recommendations.Keep Asking Questions and Remain FlexibleThe pace of growth of hybrid teams has been astounding.Before the pandemic,only about one in five managers oversaw a hybrid team.Now,that number is more than three in five.In particular,rotating arrangements,where an employee rotates between a central office or location and another location on a regular basis(or is required to come into the central office or location for a minimum number of days but can work from another location the rest of the time)were rare before COVID-19,with only 7 percent of employees using them.Now,the number is 35 percent.As a result of this growth,policies regarding hybrid teams and rotating arrangements(such as policies dictating in-person meeting requirements and who determines where an employee works)tend to be extremely new at most organizations and are subject to change.More research is needed to determine how these policies will impact employees and their organizations.Therefore,organizations should keep following current news and research as well as monitor employee feedback and be flexible to changing their policies.Organizations should also consider how changing business and talent needs may necessi-tate changes in policies.Dont Leave Teams to Figure Out Technology on Their OwnOrganizations that provided hybrid teams with virtual meeting room software were much more likely to be high performers than organizations that did not provide this tool.Lead-ers should take care when selecting meeting room software and should regularly review their software choices to ensure they continue to meet user and business needs.In the report Learning Technology Ecosystems:Tools,Platforms,and Strategies,ATDs researchers found that its beneficial to review technologies,including virtual meeting room software,at least annually.Reviewers should ask users(in this case,hybrid team managers and 9Developing Hybrid Teams Whitepaper employees)what works well,what does not,and what can be improved.When selecting software,the most popular places to start doing market research were online reviews,conferences,and product demonstrations.2However,success doesnt end with selecting and reviewing technology.Organizations that provided training on how to use technology tools such as virtual meeting software were more likely to be high performers.Employees should know how and when to leverage various features(such as chat,hand-raising prompts,whiteboards,live reactions,and breakout rooms)to improve engagement,collaboration,and productivity and ensure that both their in-office and remote colleagues feel included.Focus on Team Building SkillsThe biggest barrier to expanding hybrid teams was concerns about the loss of teamwork and collaboration,and the capability hybrid team managers struggled the most with was team building.However,organizations can overcome these challenges through targeted training.When providing managers with training on building teams in a hybrid setting and providing employees with training on how to collaborate in a hybrid setting,organiza-tions were more likely to be high performers.One way to develop team building skills in a hybrid setting is to use simulations and scenarios;use of simulations and scenarios in training is a high-performance practice,according to previous research by ATD.3 For example,ask hybrid team members to collab-orate on solving a fictional business challenge using the same software toolssuch as online meeting rooms,chat,and project management toolsthat are normally available to them.Consider recording their online meeting room sessions,interviewing team members after the exercise,and providing individualized feedback to managers and individuals on how they can improve collaboration.2 ATD,Learning Technology Ecosystems:Tools,Platforms,and Strategies(Alexandria,VA:ATD Press,2021).3 ATD,Simulations and Scenarios.10ATD Research ReportAbout the Author and ContributorsThe Association for Talent Development(ATD)champions the importance of learning and training by setting standards for the talent development profes-sion.ATD is the largest,most trusted organization for the professional development of practitioners in training and talent development,serving a worldwide community with members in more than 100 countries.Since ATD was founded in 1943,the talent develop-ment field has expanded significantly to meet the needs of global businesses and emerging industries.ATDs mission is to empower professionals to develop talent in the workplace.Learn more at td.org.The resources we provide to help talent development professionals increase their impact and effectiveness include our research.ATDs researchers track trends,inform decisions,and connect research to practice and performance.By providing comprehensive data and insightful analyses,ATDs research products,which include research reports,briefs,infographics,and webinars,help business leaders and talent development professionals understand and more effectively respond to todays fast-paced industry.Maria Ho is the associate director of ATD research services and served as the author of this report.She provides oversight and direction for all of ATDs internal and external,industry specific,and market research services.Melissa Jones is the manager of ATD Press and served as an editor for this report.She edits and manages the production process for ATD research reports and books.Hannah Sternberg is a produc-tion editor for ATD and served as an editor for this report.Marisa Stokley is an associate editor for ATD and served as an editor for this report.Shirley E.M.Raybuck is a senior graphic designer for ATD and served as the designer for this report.11Developing Hybrid Teams Whitepaper More From ATD Research2022 State of Finance TrainingThe 2022 State of Finance Training provides a detailed view of training in finance,sharing metrics such as learning expenditure and the average number of hours employees use on learning annually.To identify how responses differed among distinct types of financial organizations,ATD reports data for three separate groups:the consolidated financial group,banks,and credit unions.To learn more,visit td.org/StateOfFinance.2021 State of the IndustryThe 2021 State of the Industry report,sponsored by Allego and AllenComm,is ATDs annual re-view of talent development trends,spending,and activities that can help benchmark your teams work.Drawing upon ATDs 2021 survey,which gathered information from 223 organizations across a diverse range of industries,company sizes,and locations,this years report presents results in a robust,data-driven guide to demonstrate what has happened in talent development in 2020 amid the COVID-19 pandemic.For more information,visit td.org/SOIR2021.Learning Technology EcosystemsThis report represents ATDs first research on complete learning technology ecosystems.A learning technology ecosystem was defined as the tools and platforms an organization uses to create,deliver,manage,and analyze its learning content.It also includes the people and processes for enabling those tools and platforms.The report identifies practices related to learning technology ecosystems with statistically significant connections to high performance.td.org/LTecosystems.Developing a Culture of Learning:Strategies for Organizational AchievementResearchers from the Association for Talent Development(ATD)have previously found that organizations with learning cultures were far more likely to realize positive business results.This report provides an updated look(from 2021)at these issues,delivers benchmarking data,and highlights best practices.For more information,visit td.org/COL.Note:All ATD research reports can be purchased by visiting www.td.org/Store.12ATD Research ReportSponsor and Partner BenefitsSponsorshipSponsoring ATD Research highlights your organization to our global customers and members.Well feature your brand and advertise your name across the spectrum of our research promotion efforts.Benefits include:Placement of your logo on the report,the report whitepaper,the infographic,presentation slides,and the ATD Research webpage Information about your organization placed directly within the report in A Note From Our Sponsor Link to free sponsor offering on ATD Research webpage Webinar citation and participation Complimentary copies of the report ATD will send out a press release that mentions you as the sponsor.Sponsorship of ATD research reports vastly increases your visibility,recognition,and reach within the training and talent development industry.PartnershipPartner with ATD Research to study the organizational performance topic of your interest.The partner advantage:Your theories synchronize with our objective research practices.Your interests are represented throughout the research cycle.Your specific research objectives are clearly defined and met.Our analytic efforts support your business interests and concerns.Our results improve your productivity,efficiency,and/or bottom line.Partnership entitles you to the same promotional benefits as sponsorship.Also,as a partner,you guide and we execute the research plan to do the following:Define the topic and objective.Identify data sources.Deliver collection instrument(s).Conduct interviews.Analyze data.Author report(s).Disseminate findings.Conduct webinars.We promote our products and sponsors on social media.13Developing Hybrid Teams Whitepaper About ATD ResearchWhat We Do ATD Research tracks trends,informs decisions,and connects research to performance for talent development professionals.Our research reports offer an empirical foundation for todays data-driven decision makers.ATD Research cares about your success,and our specialized research devoted to talent development proves it.2022 ATD Research Topics 2022 State of the Industry 2022 State of Finance Training Developing Hybrid Teams Employer-Sponsored Continuing Education Change Management Coaching and Mentoring Succession PlanningContact InformationResearch reports published by ATD can be purchased by visiting our website at td.org/Store,or by calling 800.628.2783 or 703.683.8100.If youd like to sponsor or partner with ATD Research,contact ATD Research directly at researchtd.org or call 800.628.2783 or 703.683.8100.

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March 2023Electric Power&Natural Gas PracticeWhat will it take for nuclear power to meet the climate challenge?Nuclear power can be an important part of the energy transition.Scaling the industry to meet increasing electricity demand will require leaders to mobilize quickly and efficiently.This article is a collaborative effort by Chad Cramer,Bill Lacivita,Jennifer Laws,Muhammad Nabi Malik,and Geoff Olynyk,representing views from McKinseys Electric Power&Natural Gas Practice.The power sector will play a critical role in the net-zero transition.Power generation contributes about 30 percent of global CO2 emissions,primarily from combustion of fossil fuels.Many governments,utilities,and other companies are investing heavily in renewable sources of energy.As rapidly as renewables have scaled up in recent years,its unclear whether wind and solaralong with other emerging solutions,including carbon capture,long-duration energy storage,and hydrogencan grow fast enough to meet net-zero targets and projected increasing electricity demand.Nuclear power is a proven technology that can be called upon to play a bigger role in decarbonization.Its ability to scale up to meet rising demand,however,is in question.According to McKinseys Global Energy Perspective 2022,global power consumption could triple by 2050(Exhibit 1).The expected increase in demand will stem largely from a shift away from fossil fuels toward electrification of end uses,including transportation(electric vehicles),building operations(electrifying heat),and industrial processes(low-carbon steelmaking).The resulting need for new low-carbon and zero-carbon generation will be unprecedented in the history of the global electrical grid.Exhibit 1Web Exhibit of Global electricity demand,thousands of terawatt hours1Including demand for green hydrogen production.Scenarios center around pace of technological progress and level of policy enforcement.Source:World Energy Outlook 2021,IEA;Global Energy Perspectives 2022,Energy Insights,McKinseyElectricity demand is expected to triple by 2050 across a range of scenarios.McKinsey&Company0199020002010202020302040205010203040506070802.9%per annum1.5C pathway Increased regulations and incentives to eliminate greenhouse-gas emissions create the need for extensive electrifcation across all sectors,including those that are hard to electrify todayAchieved commitments Technological advance-ment with strict regulations and targets further boost electrifcation even in sectors that are harder to electrify(eg,high-temp heat industries)Further acceleration Technological advancement of proven solutions accelerates cost parity and triggers sooner and stronger electrifcation(such as heat pump adoption or electric vehicles)Current trajectory Consensus view on the key drivers of electricity consumption:increasing living standards and consumption per capita,electrifca-tion across all sectors,and hydrogen uptakeFading momentum Slower cost decline of zero-emissions technologies and lower fossil fuel price outlooks limit the fuel-switching trend201950CAGR,%Scenarios3.83.83.73.12.62What will it take for nuclear power to meet the climate challenge?Nuclear powera proven,zero-carbon electricity sourcecurrently contributes about 10 percent of global electricity generation.1 As a firming,resilient,and dispatchable energy source,nuclear power can be generated at any time.It can also complement nondispatchable2 power sources,such as wind and solar,to ensure that the total power supply meets grid demand.After construction of new nuclear power plants surged in Europe and North America in the 1960s and 1970s,it has been relatively stagnant globally,outside of China,Russia,and South Korea.The stagnation stems from construction challenges in the West,political and social perceptions of nuclear power in some regions,3 and the overall transition to other clean technologies.However,new developments suggest this period of stagnation may be ending.Factors such as energy security and resiliency,scarcity of top-quality land for renewables,4 interconnection and new-build transmission timelines,and the ability to scale up the renewables and storage industries fast enough5 have propelled nuclear power back into the energy transition discussion,while decades of progress in safety and waste-management practices6 have helped to allay historical concerns.Recently,multiple countries have announced intentions to either slow the phaseout of their nuclear fleets or begin exploring construction of new plants.Advancing reactor technologies offer the promise of plants that will be more cost-effective to both build and operate.And policy makers,through legislation such as the Inflation Reduction Act in the United States,7 are showing a willingness to offer incentives to accelerate the role of nuclear.These developments indicate that nuclear power is emerging as a key component of decarbonization plans,but a big question remains:Can the industry reverse the trend of exceeding budgets and timelines while scaling up fast enough to rise to the climate challenge?In this article,we explore how much nuclear power could be essential in meeting net-zero targets,the current challenges in scaling nuclear,the promise of new technologies,and eight key actions for industry stakeholders.Up to 800 GW of new nuclear could be necessary to meet net-zero targetsIn estimating the nuclear power needed to support the energy transition,we used techno-economic grid modeling8 to project the overall power mix by 2050.Our scenariobased on“Further Acceleration”estimates from McKinseys Global Energy Perspective 2022 for global energy mix,as well as anticipated supply and demand for power9accounts for potential constraints on scale-up in renewables,such as scarcity of land,raw materials,and transmission limitations.Although our scenario does not rely on a full analysis of grid models and energy-transition scenarios,it does estimate roughly how much additional dispatchable,low-carbon generation will be needed to meet net-zero targets.101 Nuclear power and secure energy transitions,IEA,June 2022.(The supply percentage reflects energy TWh,not capacity TW.)2 Wind and solar are considered to be nondispatchable because they rely on external variables(wind or sun).3 Environmental and safety concerns may affect public perceptions of nuclear power,but todays plants operate safely and reliably.A 2010 OECD report,Comparing nuclear accident risks with those from other energy sources,showed that releases of radioactivity are rare and that fatality risks related to nuclear power are low.After the 2011 accident in Fukushima,Japan,the United Nations Scientific Committee on the Effects of Atomic Radiation found that local residents did not experience radiation-related health effects(see Sources,effects and risks of ionizing radiation:UNSCEAR 2020/2021 report),even though displacement away from the Fukushima facility disrupted lives and livelihoods.Safety remains paramount when building and operating any nuclear facility.4 “Renewable-energy development in a net-zero world,”McKinsey,October 28,2022.5 Hauke Engel,Geoff Olynyk,and Daan Walter,“Failure is not an option:Increasing the chances of achieving net zero,”McKinsey,June 2,2022.6 Management and disposal of high-level radioactive waste:Global progress and solutions,Nuclear Energy Agency and OECD,2020.7 Kathryn Huff,“Inflation Reduction Act keeps momentum building for nuclear power,”Office of Nuclear Energy,US Department of Energy,September 8,2022.8 Techno-economic grid modeling is a tool that researchers and energy planners can use to determine the optimal mix of zero-carbon technologies in a given geography.9 The scenario also incorporates middle-of-the-road assumptions in cost evolutions of key energy technologies,including solar,wind,and energy storage.10 The existing nuclear fleet is also assumed to continue,but given that overall electrical generation globally roughly triples in net-zero scenarios,the newly required generation is projected to be substantially larger than that of the existing global fleet.3What will it take for nuclear power to meet the climate challenge?Our modeling reveals that the energy transition could require an additional 400 to 800 GW of new nuclearwhich could represent up to 10 to 20 percent of future global electricity demandto meet the need for dispatchable power(that is,not wind and solar)by 2050(Exhibit 2).11Notably,technology innovation,market dynamics,and construction costs could affect these projections significantly.In recent years,for example,the growth of renewables has consistently outperformed projections.12 In addition,alternative dispatchable low-and zero-carbon technologies outside of nuclear power(long-duration energy storage,13 geothermal,and tidal power,for example)could contribute to this potential need for dispatchable power.These technologies are at earlier stages of technical and commercial maturity,compared with nuclear,and each has different challenges in deploying at scale.Can nuclear power provide this degree of additional electricity?Such a jump in nuclear capacity would be daunting for the industry,which at its peak has grown at a maximum of approximately 30 GW per year globally(a rate achieved in the 1980s but not since).14 With assumptions that new reactors begin coming online by 2030 and reach scale by 2035,Exhibit 22050 global nuclear generating capacity required for net-zero emissions with US uptake sensitivities,1 gigawatts(GW)1US required build-out modeling has explored nuclear sensitivities in more depth and shows that required capacity is highly sensitive to the build-out of renew-ables,transmission and distribution constraints,and the development of competing frming technologies,most notably carbon capture and underground storage.When accounting for the age of the current global feet,an additional 100 to 250 GW of new builds could be required to replace retiring capacity,depending on plant life extensions.Source:Examining supply-side options to achieve 100%clean electricity by 2035,National Renewable Energy Laboratory,Aug 2022;World Energy Outlook 2021,IEA;Net-Zero America Project,Princeton;McKinsey analysisDemand for nuclear power is projected to double or even triple by 2050 based on todays capacity.McKinsey&CompanyCurrent operating and“nearing completion”capacity413With low nuclear adoption 396Net new capacity 759With forecasted nuclear adoption 238With high nuclear adoption 125Scenario capacity additions1,172Net-zero global and domestic composite modeling shows a doubling to triplingof installed nuclear generating capacity by 205011 Excludes nontraditional off-takers(for example,hydrogen generation,industrial heat,and desalination).12“Renewable-energy development,”October 28,2022.13 For more on the potential of long-duration energy storage technologies,see Net-zero power:Long-duration energy storage for a renewable grid,LDES Council in collaboration with McKinsey as a knowledge partner,November 22,2021.14 Based on the International Atomic Energy Agencys Power Reactor Information System(PRIS)database,accessed December 13,2022.4What will it take for nuclear power to meet the climate challenge?this uptick could require approximately 50 GW per year of new nuclear capacity(Exhibit 3).15To scale nuclear powers capacity,numerous challenges must be addressed.Building nuclear power plants comes with a complex set of challengesDuring the past 20 years,construction of new nuclear power plants has presented an array of challenges.These hurdles have been particularly acute in Western countries but are not necessarily unique to the nuclear industry,as other sectors face complex regulatory requirements or a scarcity of required skills in the labor force,for example.Our experience shows that the challenges in building new nuclear plants include but are not limited to:Complexity and variation in reactor designs,such that every plant is a“first of its kind,”with little repetition of standard designs to capture project-over-project improvements.Limited industrial base for materials,systems,and components,as well as a need for specialized manufacturing processes and rare materials.Scarcity of both skilled-craft and salaried workers who have the required expertise,Exhibit 3Web Exhibit of Global capacity additions by energy source,gigawatts(GW)1Data for solar capacity additions begin in 2007.Includes biomass,waste,oil,geothermal,and hydrogen.Source:BloombergNEF;Global Wind Energy Council;International Atomic Energy AgencyThe greatest amount of nuclear capacity added globally in a single year since 2000 was 11 gigawatts,a lower peak compared with other sources of energy.McKinsey&Company02000200520102015202050100150200250300350SolarWindHydroNuclearGasCoalOtherSolar added 183 GW of capacity in 2021 alone,suggesting global acceptance could providenecessary momentumSince 2000,11 GW is the greatest amount of nuclear capacity additions in a single yearSince 2000,93 GW is the most single-year globalcapacity additions in fossilfuels(coal in 2006)with average additions of 80 GWs from 20061615 Excludes nontraditional off-takers(for example hydrogen generation,industrial heat,and desalination).5What will it take for nuclear power to meet the climate challenge?compounded by an aging labor force of experienced nuclear professionals.Limits on the ability to execute construction effectively,without rework,to ensure on-time and on-budget delivery that meets stringent quality standards.Partnerships and construction contracts that do not reflect the extent of project risks inherent to the complexity of the technology.Complex and changing regulatory requirements for plant construction that are not consistent among governments.This web of issues has created a vicious cycle for the industry.New-build projects experience construction delays and cost overrunswhich can reach billions of dollarsand then future projects struggle to attract financing.Projects in Canada,16 Finland,17 France,18 and the United States,19 for example,have experienced significant delays,cost overruns,or prohibitively high bid costs for investors.These impediments have the compounding effect of constraining the parts of the industrial base that are key to supporting future construction and operations.The next generation of reactors have been designed with these challenges in mindNuclear reactors have historically been large,complex,costly projects that take many yearseven decadesto complete.But emerging reactor technologies promise lower costs,faster build times,and other potential advantages.Small modular reactors(SMRs),which are generally based on Gen III light water reactor(LWR)technology already in operation globally,are smaller in size and have a simpler,more modular design,which could help to reduce construction times and up-front costs.Other advanced reactor technology(Gen-IV)can be even smaller and could be deployed for microgrids,which power remote areas or a single facility.Additional advantages include lower operating costs,simplified systems that increase reliability,and better safety margins.Gen-III SMRs are currently in the early phases of deployment,whereas Gen-IV reactors are primarily at a conceptual stage(outside of a few demonstration projects).In both cases,the required manufacturing and component supply chains would need to be scaled for broader deployment.However,greater investment in these technologies could,in the long run,significantly reduce the cost,timeline,and complexities of plant constructionand potentially speed up timelines for nuclear deployment.(For more on reactor technologies,see sidebar,“Innovations in reactor technology.”)To meet the need for scale-up,industry stakeholders should consider eight key actionsMomentum for new-build nuclear is growing in many markets.For example,the US Department of Energy plans to award about$3 billion in the licensing,construction,and demonstration of two new Gen-IV plants through the Advanced Reactor Demonstration Program,in addition to the$1.4 billion cost-share for a new SMR plant.20 Additionally,the Inflation Reduction Act in the United States provides either an investment tax 16 Darlington Nuclear Generating Station;see Management of delayed nuclear power plant projects,International Atomic Energy Agency,September 1999.17 OL3 EPR plant;see“The regular electricity production of OL3 EPR will be postponed due to extension of turbine overhaul,”TVO news release,August 20,2021.18 Flamanville 3 project;see“Update on the Flamanville EPR,”EDF,December 16,2022.19 Vogtle 3 and 4 project;see 2022 second quarter report,MEAG Power.20 Nuclear energy projects:DOE should institutionalize oversight plans for demonstrations of new reactor types,US Government Accountability Office,September 13,2022;“Next-gen nuclear plant and jobs are coming to Wyoming,”Office of Nuclear Energy,US Department of Energy,November 16,2021;“DOE approves award for carbon free power project,”Office of Nuclear Energy,US Department of Energy,October 16,2020.6What will it take for nuclear power to meet the climate challenge?credit of up to 50 percent or a production tax credit up to approximately$30 per MWh for the first ten years of new-plant operation.21 As of January 2023,GE Hitachi Nuclear Energy,Ontario Power Generation,SNC-Lavalin,and Aecon have signed a contract for the deployment of a BWRX-300 SMR in Ontario,Canada.22 This is the first commercial contract for a grid-scale SMR in North America.The United Kingdom recently announced an approximately$145 million fund to support new nuclear projects.23 South Korea has also announced increased capacity.24 In the United Innovations in reactor technologyNuclear reactor technology is complex and comes in various forms.New designs promise lower costs,increased passive safety,1 faster build times,smaller absolute size,more flexible locations,the ability to use nuclear waste as fuel,and other advantages.However,these designs are less proven,and supply chains for many of their parts have not yet been developed.The nuclear industry uses a standard classification of“generations”of reactors to categorize the technology.Todays large reactors are known as“Generation III ”(generations I to III are generally no longer built).For nuclear power to scale up,we would expect the deployment of reactor technologies to progress,such that current Gen-III large light water reactors(LWRs)carry the load at first,Gen-III small modular reactors(SMRs)ramp up in the 2020s,and advanced Gen-IV reactors begin to play a role in the 2030s.Here is a brief overview of each generation of reactor technology:Gen-III large LWR.LWRs are the most common reactors globally(“light water”refers to the use of ordinary water as a moderator in the reaction process).They can generate more than 1 GW of electricity(enough to power 400,000 homes),can cost$5 billion or more for new plant construction,and may require at least five years to build.The up-front investment is high,but LWR designs are commercially ready and are being deployed today.Gen-III SMR.SMRs generate less power than the Gen-III large reactors,in the 100 to 300 MW electrical range(though smaller designs,down to about 20 MW,have been proposed).Their simplified designs and modularity can reduce construction time and up-front investment,compared with larger reactors.We believe that SMRs,which are in pilot development,could play the largest role in any near-term rapid scale-up of the industry.Gen-IV reactor.This category includes new and emerging technologies,such as liquid sodium cooled reactors,high-temperature gas reactors,and microreactors(1 to 50 MW of electrical output).Gen-IV reactors might solve key technical challenges(waste-burning,for example)and could create new use cases(such as microgrids that leverage microreactors or process heat from high-temperature reactors;high-temperature power for low-carbon hydrogen production).However,Gen-IV reactors are further away from commercialization and could require new supply chains for different materials or fuels.While key factors such as cost and technical maturity might vary across these technologies,each could have a role going forward.Such factors influence each technologys scale-up potential.1 Safety functions that dont require active interventions from operators.21 Inflation Reduction Act of 2022,H.R.5376,117th Congress.22“Aecon partnership executes agreement to deliver North Americas first grid-scale Small Modular Reactor for Ontario Power Generation,”Aecon news release,January 27,2023.23“Future Nuclear Enabling Fund,”Department for Business,Energy&Industrial Strategy,United Kingdom,May 2022.24“Nuclear Power in South Korea,”World Nuclear Association,updated November 2022.7What will it take for nuclear power to meet the climate challenge?Arab Emirates,a plant has been in development for the past decade and is partially operational.25 Globally,about 178 GW of capacity is under construction or planned.26 According to the International Energy Agency,approximately 10 GW of new capacity has been connected to grids each year in recent years.27 Achieving additional capacity of approximately 50GW per year thus means a roughly fivefold scale-up for the industry from todays new-build activity levels,while maintaining existing nuclear plants online.But the industry is at an impasse.Despite positive momentum for the first time in over a decade,the risk that initial construction will go over budget and over schedule may diminish chances that new nuclear will realize its full potential in supporting the energy transition at scale.For the industry to scale up significantly,several near-term actions will need to be considered across financing,supply chain,and regulation.Industry players along the value chainOEMs,plant operators,regulators,policy makers,and investorswould all play critical roles.We have identified eight key actions for stakeholders to consider.1.Source new financing for power plant construction across the value chain.Financing will be critical in kick-starting the industrywe estimate that capital costs for a rapid scale-up to meet decarbonization targets could be roughly$500 billion per year.Private investment will need to support the development of new technologies,scaling of the industrial base,and construction of new reactors.Regardless of investment sources,managing cost risks will be vital.Policy support may be necessary to backstop financial risk as the industry scales up.Governments could offer guarantees or direct financing.Global power producers could consider spreading risks over large balance sheets.For example,the US Department of Energy Loan Program Office is available to provide low-cost financing,but such support is not consistent across all future nuclear nations.2.Ramp up the labor force for manufacturing,construction,and operation.Today in the United States and Canada,for example,the nuclear industry provides approximately 130,000 direct jobs and nearly 600,000 total jobs(indirect plus direct).Our analysis suggests that the nuclear workforce in these two countries alone would need to grow to more than one million peopleand to more than five million globallyfor the industry to increase capacity to 50 GW per year.The industry and governments could coordinate on capability-building programs that include recruitment,training,apprenticeship,and placement,such as energy company EDFs efforts to train welders in anticipation of a new nuclear power station in the United Kingdom.283.Establish streamlined global licensing processes.Industry leaders,regulators,and policy makers could set up an industry consortium(or empower an existing one)to define global licensing requirements and proactively work with governments to lay out a road map for scaling up.In the natural gas industry,for example,the International Group of Liquefied Natural Gas Importers(GIIGNL)often in cooperation with other organizations,such as the American Petroleum Institutedefines common technical standards for liquefied natural gas across the globe and works with governments to see those standards codified.25“Barakah Nuclear Energy Plant,”Emirates Nuclear Energy Corporation,accessed December 7,2022.26 Based on McKinsey analysis of the World Nuclear Organization database in February 2023 and recently announced projects from press search.27“Nuclear power capacity additions and retirements in selected countries and regions by decade in the Net Zero Scenario,”IEA,last updated October 26,2022.Note that 10 GW of capacity has also been decommissioned;therefore,the total net energy produced from nuclear reactors has remained approximately constant.28“Energy Minister opens new training centre to support Hinkley Point C,”EDF,April 28,2022.8What will it take for nuclear power to meet the climate challenge?4.Implement individual-project best practices.Applying best practices for large-scale investment projects can reduce the likelihood of cost and schedule overruns.In our experience,proven strategies and management tactics for successful megaprojects in other industries apply in the nuclear context in areas including site productivity;schedule optimization;cost control;commissioning and operational readiness;quality,project control,and risk management;and project organization and governance.Lessons from other industries will be invaluable if nuclear is to succeed.5.Implement industry-wide best practices for scaling up.Toward that end,an asset-heavy industry can take several steps:Establish standard designs.Create an industry body to identify and implement standards for plant systems and components,which could streamline regulatory processes,engineering,and supply chains.Use a replicable model for construction.Building plants in rapid succession with a standard design will help workforce skills to remain relevant,the industrial base to scale up,and lessons from each build to inform successive builds.Repeat siting.Historically,building multiple reactors at a single location has proved to significantly reduce costs for successive buildoutsby minimizing mobilization costs,utilizing shared buildings and structures,and maintaining the necessary workforce for follow-on units.Increase use of modular construction for standardized components.In the 1960s,for example,the shipbuilding industry largely moved from bespoke,full-scale onsite construction to a more modular,“hull block”process,whereby sections are prefabricated in workshops and final assembly occurs in the drydock.For the nuclear industry,modular construction of plant sections can substantially drive down costs as processes become more predictable and repeatable,construction environments more controlled,workforces more stable,rework less frequent,and manufacturing times more efficient.6.Proactively coordinate and scale the industrial base.Supply chain bottlenecks are likely to emerge if the industry scales up quickly.Potential bottlenecks could affect,for example,heavy forgings for reactor pressure vessels,instrumentation,and control systems,as well as specialized nuclear-safety-rated(“N-stamped”)valves for critical control systems.More new-build program support by governments could boost investor confidence in building out supply chains for such components before construction begins.In addition,industry players can consider establishing centers of excellence to develop new manufacturing processes and help qualify more suppliers of components to meet the necessary performance and quality standards for the nuclear supply chain.7.Maintain the reliable and safe operation and maintenance(O&M)of current plants while continuing to improve financial performance.Todays plants operate safely and reliably,but they face increasing economic challenges.For example,declining costs for wind and solar have forced nuclear providers in many markets to stay competitive on price,which has tightened margins.Maintaining todays nuclear capacity through safe,reliable,and cost-efficient operation of existing plants would help to keep them running(instead of shutting them down because of high operational costs)and potentially help preserve current supply chains and the workforce.8.Expedite development of next-generation reactors.Accelerating commercial deployment of Gen-III and Gen-IV technologies could,over time,reduce capital costs and speed up plant buildouts through“learning by doing,”more efficient supply chains,and other benefits.9What will it take for nuclear power to meet the climate challenge?Reactor technology owners could refine their equity stories for investors,with an emphasis on getting pilots right.Nuclear industry players could also consider publicprivate consortiums to expedite technology development.The promise of nuclear energy is needed now more than ever to meet global net-zero targets.Scaling up the nuclear industry will be a significant undertaking that requires overcoming a substantial set of roadblocks.Even an optimistic scenario for an expanded nuclear economy would be likely to involve a complex,global web of policies,in addition to uneven cost levels,as technologies and the supporting industrial base emerge on different timelines.However,we believe a nuclear scale-up is achievable.Its time for the industry to meet the challenge.Scan Download PersonalizeFind more content like this on the McKinsey Insights AppDesigned by McKinsey Global PublishingCopyright 2023 McKinsey&Company.All rights reserved.Chad Cramer is an associate partner in McKinseys Columbus,Ohio,office;Bill Lacivita is a partner in the Atlanta office;Jennifer Laws is a consultant in the Boston office;Muhammad Nabi Malik is an associate partner in the Houston office;and Geoff Olynyk is a senior expert in the Toronto office.The authors wish to thank Matt Cherry,Armond Cohen,Kevin Kroll,Carlos Leipner,Alexander MacKay,Jesse Noffsinger,Jane Reed,Wesley Sadler,Humayun Tai,Kurt Waltzer,and Jake Wilk for their contributions to this article.10What will it take for nuclear power to meet the climate challenge?

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艾意凯咨询：公共卫生紧急状态结束对美国医疗补助的影响（2023）（英文版）（11页）.pdf

1EXECUTIVE INSIGHTSPHE Unwinding Impact on Medicaid Redeterminations In January 2020,the Department of Health and Human Services(HHS)issued a public health emergency(PHE)soon after the first cases of COVID-19 were detected in the U.S.In March 2020,Congress passed the Families First Coronavirus Response Act(FFCRA),which,among other provisions,put in place controls to ensure those in need had access to care during the pandemic.These provisions included:1 A temporary increase of 6.2 percentage points in the Federal Medical Assistance Percentage(FMAP)the federal governments share of Medicaid costs to qualifying states A maintenance of effort(MOE)protection,also known as“continuous coverage,”which prevents states that receive the increased FMAP from terminating peoples Medicaid coverage during the PHEThe PHE was renewed 12 times in 90-day increments,keeping in place the increased FMAP and MOE protections for Medicaid,before President Joe Biden announced its end date of May 11,2023.During this same time,estimated enrollment in Medicaid and the Childrens Health Insurance Program(CHIP)approached 92 million as of November 2022,an increase of over 21 million since February 2020;2 however,on Dec.29,2022,President Biden signed the Consolidated Appropriations Act of 2023.This Act allows eligibility terminations to begin on April 1,2023,permitting states to begin initiating renewals that may result in eligibility terminations as early as Feb.1,2023,or at the latest by April 2023,giving each state 12 months from its starting point to initiate all renewals,and 14 months from its start to complete all renewals.3 Additionally,the act granted a gradual phaseout of the 6.2 percentage point FMAP enhancement beginning in April 2023 and ending on Dec.31,2023.4 2 L.E.K.ConsultingEXECUTIVE INSIGHTSPHE Unwinding Impact on Medicaid Redeterminations Now the healthcare system is preparing for the far-reaching ramifications that redeterminations will bring.In this Executive Insights,L.E.K.Consulting discusses the implications of upcoming Medicaid redeterminations and considerations for payers,providers and patients.By the numbers:What Medicaid redeterminations could look likeThere are three main variables defining what the impact of Medicaid redeterminations will be:1.The number of people who will lose Medicaid coverage2.How the disenrollments will be distributed over time3.What type of insurance those who lose their Medicaid coverage will receiveThese variables are very difficult to predict,but key indicators such as employment rates,pre-pandemic insurance coverage trends,Affordable Care Act(ACA)policies and state-published plans help shed light on a possible range of outcomes.1.The number of people who will lose Medicaid coverageFollowing the pandemic,unemployment rates have largely stabilized,indicating a return to long-term pre-pandemic trends,and Medicaid enrollment levels are expected to follow suit.A range of key reports,namely from the Urban Institute and HHS,suggest a consensus of around 15 million total Medicaid/CHIP disenrollments due to Medicaid redeterminations,with some caveats(see Figure 1).5,6 Figure 1Estimate of Medicaid/CHIP enrollment based on redeterminations(November 2022-May 2024P)*Medicaid.gov estimates 91.8 million Medicaid/CHIP enrolled lives as of November 2022 reported enrollment data;it is expected that this number will increase by April 1,2023*HHS includes the elderly population in estimates and projections,while the Urban Institute appears to only include the non-elderly populationThe Urban Institute expects a total of 18 million people will lose Medicaid coverage,3 million will transition from Medicaid to CHIP,resulting in 15 million Medicaid/CHIP individuals to be disenrolled;HHS estimate of disenrollments is outdated,as it is projected from total enrollment at the end of December 2021,is based on 2015-16 SIPP data,and projects disenrollments occurring over the course of 12 months throughout 2022.Note:CHIP=Childrens Health Insurance Program;HHS=Department of Health and Human Services;SIPP=Survey of Income and Program ParticipationSource:Data.Medicaid.gov,“State Medicaid and CHIP Applications,Eligibility Determinations,and Enrollment Data”;Urban Institute,“The Impact of the COVID-19 Public Health Emergency Expiration on All Types of Health Coverage,”December 2022;U.S.Department of Health and Human Services,“Unwinding the Medicaid Continuous Enrollment Provision:Projected Enrollment Effects and Policy Approaches,”August 2022;L.E.K.research and analysisCurrent enrollmentin Medicaid/CHIPExpected disenrollmentof Medicaid/CHIPindividuals fromredeterminations*Millions of individualsProjected enrollmentin Medicaid/CHIPpost-redeterminations100010203040506070809092-95M77-80M15M3 L.E.K.ConsultingEXECUTIVE INSIGHTSPHE Unwinding Impact on Medicaid Redeterminations Medicaid members losing coverage can be separated into two major groups:those who are no longer eligible and those who lose coverage due to administrative“churn.”Those deemed ineligible will include both enrollees who have gained employer-sponsored insurance(ESI)or other insurance while maintaining their Medicaid coverage and those whose only form of insurance is Medicaid but who no longer meet the qualification thresholds.Those who lose coverage due to administrative churn likely still qualify for Medicaid but have not completed timely paperwork needed to reassess their eligibility.There could be a variety of reasons for this,such as outdated contact information,lack of education/awareness or inability to handle the burden of paperwork.The two key reports differ in their perspectives on churn and how they account for it within the roughly 15 million estimated disenrollments:HHS includes approximately 6.8 million individuals disenrolled due to churn within its 15 million estimate.The Urban Institute estimates its results net of any churn.2.How the disenrollments will be distributed over timeOver 40 states have published plans in varying detail as to how they will approach redeterminations and over what time frame.They fall into several different categories,as defined by the Centers for Medicare&Medicaid Services(CMS)(see Figure 2 for examples):7 Time-based approach:Distribute renewals based on month or on amount of time since enrollees application or prior renewal.This would tend to result in a more linear processing of disenrollments.Population-based approach:Prioritize the redeterminations most likely to result in disenrollment.This would result in the front-loading of disenrollments.Hybrid approach:Conduct specific renewals(for those with likely ineligibility)first,then apply a time-based approach for all others.This could result in a still-front-loaded but less steep curve of disenrollments.Other:Take an approach not specifically meeting one of the three CMS definitions listed above(e.g.,a state-designed approach).Additional factors that will influence the distribution of disenrollments over the 14-month period are as follows:States may choose to begin processing renewals in February,March or April 2023.There is a lag between beginning processing and a disenrollment,meaning that while April is the first possible month for disenrollments,many states will have their first disenrollments in May or June.4 L.E.K.ConsultingEXECUTIVE INSIGHTSPHE Unwinding Impact on Medicaid Redeterminations CMS recommends that states initiate no more than one-ninth of their renewals in any given month,to better balance the workload and lead to fewer inappropriate disenrollments.States will have to report their expected distribution of renewals to CMS.8Given the situations complexity,the mix of state redetermination approaches and the workforce constraints,we expect the likely distribution of disenrollments to be:Somewhat lower in the first two months(April and May 2023),mainly coming from states that initiated renewals in February or March 2023 Relatively linear to slightly front-loaded in the middle 10 months(June 2023 through March 2024),since the time-based approach is more common,and states using hybrid or population-based approaches will be strongly encouraged to abide by the one-ninth maximum recommendation Somewhat lower in the final two months(April and May 2024),as all states that initiated renewals in February or March 2023 will have completed all renewals by this time3.What type of insurance those who lose their Medicaid coverage will receiveIn addition to the difficulty of predicting how many Medicaid/CHIP members will be disenrolled during redeterminations,it is even more challenging to determine what portion of those individuals will remain covered under Medicaid,move to alternate sources of coverage or become Figure 2Medicaid redetermination approaches of select states*Based on state plans and information available as of February 2023;although a state follows a time-based redetermination approach,there may be some select populations that are prioritized or deprioritized outside the time-based schedule.Source:Individual state plans,as found in Georgetown University Center for Children and Families 50-State Unwinding TrackerNONEXHAUSTIVEState-designedPopulation-basedHybridTime-basedMENYMIGAALTXMAAZNVCOMNCA5 L.E.K.ConsultingEXECUTIVE INSIGHTSPHE Unwinding Impact on Medicaid Redeterminations Urban InstituteHHS3Uninsured,includingACA-eligibleunenrolledOther*Nongroup,mainly ACAmarketplacewith PTCsESIOther*ESIUninsuredExchanges/ACAMedicaidCommercial(including ESI)Eligible for low-or no-cost subsidized ACA plan(whether or not enrolled)Uninsured:ESI-eligibleunenrolled andcoverage gap*Administrativechurn(disenrollment from Medicaid while still eligible)Percentage of Medicaid/CHIP disenrolled livesPercentage of new Medicaid membershipacquired during the PHE MOEElevance Health Q2 20221000102030405060708090100010203040506070809064267184594241553545uninsured altogether.Academic,government and corporate institutions have presented a wide range of estimates(see Figure 3),but these sources share some similar overarching themes.The Urban Institute,HHS and Elevance Health all expect the majority of disenrolled individuals either already have moved or will move to commercial(mainly ESI)coverage,as national unemployment a driver of Medicaid enrollment has returned to pre-pandemic levels.Following transitions to commercial coverage,sources expect ACA marketplace plans to act as another lever to reduce the magnitude of uninsured individuals nationally.Where sources differ,however,is in how they expect the remainder of disenrolled members to churn and presumably reenroll in Medicaid versus move to alternate coverage or remain uninsured.Sources are also discrepant as to how many disenrolled individuals will become uninsured;the Urban Institute says there could be approximately 3.8 million uninsured individuals following the redeterminations.Figure 3Projections of disenrolled Medicaid/CHIP individuals,by insurance status,by source*Urban Institutes“Other”category includes other public or non-ACA-compliant coverage*HHS“Other”category refers to those who“Changed to Non-Marketplace Coverage that Precludes Advanced Premium Tax Credits”*HHS“Coverage gap”category refers to the Medicaid coverage gap in Medicaid nonexpansion states This represents eligible individuals,whereas the ESI and Other categories represent projected enrollment;not all who are eligible would enroll in the ACA plansThe period over which a“churn”individual would be placed back onto Medicaid coverage is not specified by HHS Specifically referring to nonelderly individuals In the Q2 2022 earnings call,Elevance Health stated,“Over the past year,weve added more than 2.7 million net new members,including over 1.5 million net new government members and nearly 1.2 million net new commercial members.”Note:CHIP=Childrens Health Insurance Program;ACA=Affordable Care Act;PTCs=premium tax credits;ESI=employer-sponsored insurance;PHE=public health emergency;MOE=maintenance of effort;HHS=Department of Health and Human Services Source:Urban Institute,“The Impact of the COVID-19 Public Health Emergency Expiration on All Types of Health Coverage,”December 2022;U.S.Department of Health and Human Services,“Unwinding the Medicaid Continuous Enrollment Provision:Projected Enrollment Effects and Policy Approaches,”August 2022;Elevance Health Q2 2022 earnings call transcript and Form 10-Q 6 L.E.K.ConsultingEXECUTIVE INSIGHTSPHE Unwinding Impact on Medicaid Redeterminations Implications across the healthcare ecosystem The impact of Medicaid redeterminations will be felt across the healthcare ecosystem from managed care organizations(MCOs)to providers and patients.Medicaid redeterminations will benefit some participants in the healthcare value chain more than others(see Figure 4):Patients:Redeterminations will not impact all disenrolled members negatively;many have transitioned to ESI coverage while regaining employment and are utilizing more comprehensive care benefits.However,millions are still at risk of losing insurance.Providers:Some may experience the net benefit of higher reimbursement rates for patients who transitioned from Medicaid to ESI or ACA.Others who serve communities with higher unemployment and/or poverty may be adversely impacted if more of their patients experience churn or uninsurance.Health plans:MCOs with a high proportion of Medicaid members will face headwinds as ineligible members are disenrolled and associated premiums disappear.Those with a focus on commercial and other government service lines will benefit from shifts to ESI and ACA exchange plans.Figure 4Shifts in the value chain across healthcare stakeholders as a result of Medicaid redeterminationsNote:ESI=employer-sponsored insurance;ACA=Affordable Care Act;MCO=managed care organization Source:L.E.K.research and analysisFollowing Medicaid redeterminations,the five largest Medicaid MCOs all have significant revenue losses at stake.Centene and Molina are at greatest risk,as Medicaid is the largest business segment for both companies.Centene expects around$9 billion in run-rate revenue giveback after redeterminations resume.9 Molina anticipates the potential loss of 300,000 or more Medicaid members when redeterminations commence.10 This presents these plans with Patients with more comprehensive coverage benefits(e.g.,ESI,ACA) Providers receiving higher reimbursement rates as patients move to ESI and ACA MCOs with business focus on commercial and/or ACA service lines States offloading premium payments from budget Patients who become uninsured-Providers whose patients experience churn or uninsurance-MCOs with business focus on Medicaid service line-Employer groups with new influx of individuals to pay for-7 L.E.K.ConsultingEXECUTIVE INSIGHTSPHE Unwinding Impact on Medicaid Redeterminations a large incentive to act in the short term and utilize these opportunities for the long term as well.Thus,MCOs should:11,12 Proactively assist state Medicaid agencies in all ways possible.This will allow MCOs to gather beneficiary renewal information that will help individuals avoid disenrollment and/or help those who are ineligible transition to ACA marketplace coverage.Maximize retention of eligible members to reduce churn and preserve continuity of benefits.Expand their geographic presence in ACA marketplace offerings,beginning in states where the MCO has Medicaid presence.Diversify their ACA exchange product offerings by designing more plans with various price points and choices of benefits to attract more consumers,especially those who have been disenrolled.Centene,for example introduced new marketplace product designs in 2022.13The nations largest health plans could offset potential losses,or even create new revenue streams,by channeling their integration of Medicaid Managed Care and exchanges within states.HHS recently reported a record-high 16.3 million people selecting ACA marketplace plans during the 2022-23 open enrollment period,including 3.6 million new-to-marketplace enrollees,up 21%relative to the prior year.14 This achievement signals the promise of greater public awareness of and access to marketplace coverage.Given the Inflation Reduction Act extension of premium subsidies(i.e.,premium tax credits)until 2025,MCOs have supporting incentives to persuade beneficiaries to transition.However,MCOs will have to overcome their greatest and most well-known barriers,as follows:15,16,17 Gaining timely information from state agencies to target ineligible Medicaid individuals to share with marketplace colleagues Building awareness among current Medicaid beneficiaries of the upcoming redetermination process and of alternate coverage options and,when within state regulations,assisting members with completing the redetermination process Informing disenrolled individuals of how,when and where to enroll in other coverage options,such as CMS temporary special enrollment period for disenrolled individuals to enroll in ACA marketplace coverage from March 31,2023,through July 31,202418 Maintaining compliance with complex Federal Communications Commission regulations regarding outreach to members8 L.E.K.ConsultingEXECUTIVE INSIGHTSPHE Unwinding Impact on Medicaid Redeterminations Health plans will have to continue prompting and collaborating with states as best they can to bridge the coverage transition gap that could otherwise lead to losses in both dollars and insured members.ConclusionIn Q1 2022,the national uninsured rate reached an all-time low of 8%.19 Now,2023 will be a pivotal year in preserving health insurance coverage for as many individuals as possible,even as Medicaid redeterminations begin in the spring.L.E.K.s Healthcare Services practice continues to perform work across this space to help clients navigate uncertainties.With our knowledge and expertise,we can help develop strategic solutions that fit your needs for commercial excellence but also for growth in the years ahead.For more information,please contact .Endnotes1U.S.Congress,“Public Law 116-127 Mar.18,2020:Families First Coronavirus Response Act.”https:/www.congress.gov/116/plaws/publ127/PLAW-116publ127.pdf 2Centers for Medicare&Medicaid Services,“November 2022 Medicaid and CHIP Enrollment Trends Snapshot.”https:/www.medicaid.gov/medicaid/national-medicaid-chip-program-information/downloads/november-2022-medicaid-chip-enrollment-trend-snapshot.pdf 3Centers for Medicare&Medicaid Services,“SHO#23-002 RE:Medicaid Continuous Enrollment Condition Changes,Conditions for Receiving the FFCRA Temporary FMAP Increase,Reporting Requirements,and Enforcement Provisions in the Consolidations Appropriations Act,2023.”https:/www.medicaid.gov/federal-policy-guidance/downloads/sho23002.pdf 4U.S.Congress,“H.R.2617 Enrolled Bill:Consolidated Appropriations Act,2023.”https:/www.congress.gov/bill/117th-congress/house-bill/2617/text 5U.S.Department of Health and Human Services,“Unwinding the Medicaid Continuous Enrollment Provision:Projected Enrollment Effects and Policy Approaches.”https:/aspe.hhs.gov/sites/default/files/documents/404a7572048090ec1259d216f3fd617e/aspe-end-mcaid-continuous-coverage_IB.pdf 6Urban Institute,“The Impact of the COVID-19 Public Health Emergency Expiration on All Types of Health Coverage.”https:/www.urban.org/research/publication/impact-covid-19-public-health-emergency-expiration-all-types-health-coverage 7Centers for Medicare&Medicaid Services,“Medicaid and CHIP Unwinding Planning Efforts:Summary of Best&Promising State Practices from CMS/State Discussions,April 2022.”https:/www.medicaid.gov/resources-for-states/downloads/state-unwinding-best-practices.pdf 8Centers for Medicare&Medicaid Services,“SHO#23-002 RE:Medicaid Continuous Enrollment Condition Changes,Conditions for Receiving the FFCRA Temporary FMAP Increase,Reporting Requirements,and Enforcement Provisions in the Consolidated Appropriations Act,2023.”https:/www.medicaid.gov/federal-policy-guidance/downloads/sho23002.pdf 9Centene Corp.,“Centene Corporation Q4 Earnings Call.”https:/ 10Molina Healthcare,“Q4 2022 Molina Healthcare,Inc.Earnings Conference Call.”https:/ 11Beckers Payer Issues,“Payers prep for the great 2023 shuffle from Medicaid to ACA coverage.”https:/ 12Kaiser Family Foundation,“Medicaid Managed Care Plans Can Help Enrollees Maintain Coverage as the Public Health Emergency Unwinds.”https:/www.kff.org/medicaid/issue-brief/medicaid-managed-care-plans-can-help-enrollees-maintain-coverage-as-the-public-health-emergency-unwinds/#13Centene Corp.,“2021 Annual Review.”https:/ 14U.S.Department of Health and Human Services,“Biden-Harris Administration Announces Record-Breaking 16.3 Million People Signed Up for Health Care Coverage in ACA Marketplaces During 2022-2023 Open Enrollment Season.”https:/www.hhs.gov/about/news/2023/01/25/biden-harris-administration-announces-record-breaking-16-3-million-people-signed-up-health-care-coverage-aca-marketplaces-during-2022-2023-open-enrollment-season.html 9 L.E.K.ConsultingEXECUTIVE INSIGHTSPHE Unwinding Impact on Medicaid Redeterminations 15Beckers Payer Issues,“Payers prep for the great 2023 shuffle from Medicaid to ACA coverage.”https:/ 16Urban Institute,“Preparing for the Biggest Coverage Event since the Affordable Care Act.Perspectives from State Officials on the End of Medicaids Continuous Coverage Requirement.”https:/www.urban.org/sites/default/files/2022-03/preparing-for-the-biggest-coverage-event-since-the-affordable-care-act_0_0.pdf 17Bright Spots in Healthcare(webinar),“2023 Strategy Session:Member Redetermination,CAHPS,and Social Needs.”https:/ of Health and Human Services,“Temporary Special Enrollment Period(SEP)for Consumers Losing Medicaid or the Childrens Health Insurance Program(CHIP)Coverage Due to Unwinding of the Medicaid Continuous Enrollment Condition Frequently Asked Questions(FAQ).”https:/www.cms.gov/technical-assistance-resources/temp-sep-unwinding-faq.pdf 19U.S.Department of Health and Human Services,“National Uninsured Rate Reaches All-Time Low in Early 2022.”https:/aspe.hhs.gov/reports/2022-uninsurance-at-all-time-low10 L.E.K.ConsultingEXECUTIVE INSIGHTSPHE Unwinding Impact on Medicaid Redeterminations Matt SabbatinoMatt Sabbatino is a Managing Director in L.E.K.Consultings New York office.Matt is a member of the Healthcare Services practice and specializes in payer/provider integration and behavioral health.Prior to joining L.E.K.in 2011,Matt served as a Captain,combat engineer and paratrooper in the United States Army.He holds a Bachelor of Science in systems engineering from the University of Pennsylvania and a Master of Business Administration from Carnegie Mellon University.Brendan MitchellBrendan Mitchell is a Managing Director and Partner in L.E.K.Consultings Healthcare Services practice and is based in the firms San Francisco office.Brendan focuses on growth strategy,M&A and operations-related topics and has used his experience to serve leading national and regional payers,risk-bearing provider organizations,healthcare IT firms,and private equity investors.His core areas of expertise include care model design,clinical operations and healthcare payments.Andrew GaribaldiAndrew Garibaldi is a Managing Director and Partner in L.E.K.Consultings Boston office.Andrew co-leads the healthcare services subsector and has worked extensively on payer and provider strategy,complex populations and government programs,care model design,post-acute care,and transaction support engagements.He is experienced with growth strategy development,market analysis,financial modeling and data analytics.Jenny MackeyJenny Mackey is a Principal in L.E.K.s Life Sciences practice and the Director of L.E.K.s Healthcare Insights Center.In her role as a Principal,Jenny focuses on the biopharmaceutical sector and advises clients on a range of issues including R&D portfolio prioritization,new product planning,forecasting and valuation,and organizational performance and development.In the Healthcare Insights Center,she is focused on generating insights and thought leadership on topics and trends with major impact across the healthcare industry.Nilanjana RayNilanjana Ray is a Senior Associate Consultant in L.E.K.Consultings Chicago office and is dedicated to the Healthcare Services practice.Nila graduated from the University of Chicago with a B.A.in Biological Sciences and in Psychology.She has extensive experience in the payer and provider space and has worked across a number of strategy,implementation and M&A projects.About the Authors11 L.E.K.ConsultingEXECUTIVE INSIGHTSPHE Unwinding Impact on Medicaid Redeterminations About L.E.K.ConsultingWere L.E.K.Consulting,a global strategy consultancy working with business leaders to seize competitive advantage and amplify growth.Our insights are catalysts that reshape the trajectory of our clients businesses,uncovering opportunities and empowering them to master their moments of truth.Since 1983,our worldwide practice spanning the Americas,Asia-Pacific and Europe has guided leaders across all industries from global corporations to emerging entrepreneurial businesses and private equity investors.Looking for more?Visit .L.E.K.Consulting is a registered trademark of L.E.K.Consulting LLC.All other products and brands mentioned in this document are properties of their respective owners.2023 L.E.K.Consulting LLC

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GP Strategies：学习与发展的关键时刻（英文版）（26页）.pdf

Are you ready to take on the new world of work?Crunch Time For Learning&Development2All ChangeEver RelevantIts All About MeMapping The JourneyIs Your Tech Stacking Up?Smooth OperatorsMoney Well Spent?Core StrengthContents3The world is facing a reskilling emergency.Learning and Development functions must evolve and adapt at pace to remain relevant.Traditional learning is no longer cutting it.Teams need to focus on new skills and modern learning approaches to support their businesses through transformation.Are you ready to take on the new world of work?Organisations will not be going back to business as usual in how and where they deliver learning.*Since the onset of Covid,internet usage has risen by 70%.Use of communication apps has DOUBLED.Video streaming services have seen daily usage rise 20-FOLD.*More than 1 BILLION jobs,almost ONE-THIRD of all jobs worldwide,are likely to be transformed by technology in the next decade.*At the outset of 2020,less than 5%of workers did their jobs remotely.Now,more than HALF of knowledge workers work remotely.*What does this mean for L&D?*The Evolving Role of Learning in Workforce Transformation*World Economic Summit4All Change5As the world of work changes,Learning&Development functions need to step up.Teams need to evolve and adapt,they need to reposition themselves and remain relevant.Theres a need to upskill,become more digitally savvy,more innovative and respond at pace.Training strategies need to realign with business goals,with a focus on modern performance.Thats a lot of new demands.How can L&D respond?All Change*The Evolving Role of Learning in Workforce TransformationWe see accelerated demand for future of work skills.The pace of delivery is critical.We need to operate at twice the speed and be ready with our upskilling strategy when new demands emerge.”Head of Enterprise Learning&Development and Workforce of the Future,MetLife*6Ever Relevant7Theres an urgency for L&D teams to show their value,and their relevance to the business.Moving forward,the challenge will be to make strategic connections with the business,supporting the workforce where necessary.The model of traditional learning has shifted,modern learners expectations have moved.Learning professionals that understand the challenges their industry is facing,and the context of how learning and performance supports that will be considered valuable business partners.L&D now has the opportunity to proactively lead and add real value to their organisations workforce performance in this new world of work.50%of learning functions are not aligned to the business goals.*Is yours?Ever Relevant*Brandon Hall 2020*The Evolving Role of Learning in Workforce TransformationLeaders see business acumen as the most critical capability for learning teams.Key Trend:Business Leaders Lean on Learning to Deliver Business Transformation*Strategic DirectionThe Learning FunctionThe WorkersA defined learning strategy align the organisations priorities and objectives.Where the translation of company priorities into learning and performance solutions happens.Support received in the moment of need.A friction free experience.A CONNECTED GOVERNANCE MODEL THAT PARTNERS WITH BUSINESS LEADERS TO DELIVER VALUE.*Brandon Hall 20208Ever RelevantAre you aligning your learning strategy with business strategy and goals?Ask Yourself9Its All About Me10Field WorkerPoint of Service WorkerHybrid WorkerPerformance support toolsDigital performance supportVirtual classroom learningOn the job coachingDigital performance supportVirtual classroom learningDigital learningIt is ALL about the people.They sit at the heart of everything you create.You need to use data to build an understanding of who they are,their tasks,environment,and skills.From field workers,to point of service workers and hybrid office-home workers.Based on your insights,you can build a picture of when your people need support and how they need it.Only then can you begin to recognise different audiences and actively design to address their challenges.Move from a push approach to a learning pull approach,enabling users to learn at the point of need.Being data-informed about your people helps drive better decisions about when support is needed and the best modalities to deliver it.Its All About MeHow do your people get support at the moment of need?11Meet Miya,she works in a call centre providing technical support on white goods.How can you best support Miya in her role?Meet Miya-Customer Contact Case Study Performance Support:She receives a call on how to replace a drive belt.This isnt a critical task or skill,and it doesnt require training,so we provide performance support in the flow of work.Within 2 clicks,Miya looks up belt replacement on her system and accesses the relevant process information.Its All About MeHow do you know who and what youre designing for?Who is your audience?What are their unique working challenges?How do you deliver at the point of need?What is the best modality to meet their needs in the flow of work?Ask YourselfMicro Learning:At other times Miya might not be close to the flow of work but she still needs to source non urgent information for her role.This can be micro learning bursts like listening to a short podcast,webinar or 60 second video.Community:Modern Learning should also involve collective intelligence or a community model,where Miya and team can find help and support to grow.This is especially important during times of change.Scaffolded learning that Miya and her team can pull on works better than pushing out community generated content,as this leads to more empowerment and ownership of learning.In-Person:Miya finds out theres a critical fault with a popular appliance and the whole team is required to quickly upskill on the impact.Miya consumes a one page cheat sheet for instant access to questions and answers,followed by an in-person experience,and a face to face lab run by safety experts.We need a learner-centric mindset when it comes to design.Through our annual surveys of learners and business partners we see increased demand for a more personalised learner experience tailored to each individuals experience and knowledge.Senior Manager,Center of Learning,General Motors12Mapping The Journey13Measurement MappingEmpathy/Affinity Mapping PersonasConcerns&Task Analysis Worker Journey Skills MapResource MappingModality Selection&Journey MappingBuild-Borrow-Bend-Buy-BurnExpereience Platform ConfigurationStacking the TechBusiness Objectives DefinitionWorkerProfilingWorkDefinitionCurrent Stat Journey/Resource AnalysisBlueprint theFuture ModelContentSourcingCreating the Experience1234567Mapping The JourneyHave you built a systemic strategy around your people?Emphasis has traditionally been on the delivery of the learning content.Designing for the modern learner needs to move beyond that to the journey as a whole.It requires a systemic strategy built around the worker.14We approach the journey with a rigorous transformation process.By using a 7 phase approach each with its own process and output,we combine consulting with design,working collaboratively with the business.Its a process thats data informed which puts you as stakeholders and your end users at the centre of everything.When we use business data,not learning data,we design a project with performance outcomes.Essentially we have 3 key areas of discovery,consulting and design.This starts with measurement mapping process;a strategic tool to capture and visualise KPIs that will guide the project.Through research,we then do a series of mapping exercises in phases 2,3&4.This builds a profile of the business,the workers,skills and knowledge.As we hit phases 4&5,we understand enough to design for the future.This means we can de-risk the product or service because weve understood whats feasible,viable and desirable.Phases 6&7 are all about developing and deploying the product or service.Aligning content,processes and technology.Mapping The Journey“Just as the HR function has created many new job roles such as Director of Remote Work and Employee Well-Being Leader,the learning function must also take stock of what is needed to deliver workforce transformation and create new job roles focused on building new capabilities in digital marketing,immersive learning and agile methodologies.”Jeanne Meister,Founder,Future Workplace*“We need our team to be the bridge between the learning experience and the business,anticipating where business leaders want to go.This type of performance consulting requires strong communication skills,business acumen,and the ability to translate stakeholder needs into design and technology requirements.Its the learning equivalent of the HR business partner.”L&D Skills&Development Leader,Customer Experience&Success,Microsoft15Is Your Tech Stacking Up?With an average of 23 systems used by a learning function*,the need to simplify the front end experience for the worker is key.Tech ecosystems are complex.From HR systems through to the LXP,you need to remove the barriers from the backend through to the front end.Reduce the hard work for people,and create friction free experiences that enable them to perform at their best.Tech is also where we you can gain some quick wins.With over 30%of employees time spent searching for content,you can immediately improve this process through content rationalisation&correct tagging.Is Your Tech Stacking Up?Are you creating best experience for your people?16*Bersin 2020*The Evolving Role of Learning in Workforce TransformationLearning teams need to rapidly explore and test new technologies,as well as stay open to new solutions-from artificial intelligence to cloud platforms.When asked about the top learning and development innovations,they expect their organisations to pursue this year,virtual learning ranked top,with virtual reality(VR),mobile access platforms,and employee experience platform(EXPs)following.*17Smooth Operators18How do we make it all happen?Whilst the business provides strategic direction,L&D needs to provide access to the right tools,skills and resources.New roles,processes and approaches need to be created and embedded to meet demands and expectations of the modern workforce.Building new capabilities is a key priority for learning functions.The shift to modern learning is demanding new skills and roles such as learning architects,experience designers,community managers,content curators,data analysts and virtual delivery specialists.These can be upskilled or reskilled in-house,recruited or outsourced at speed.From business consulting to design,delivery,event management and analysis,L&D teams must implement a stream of services that connects the workforce to business goals.Smooth OperatorsCreate a value stream of connected servicesAre you tuned in to future skill needs?Are you continuously scanning the environment for emerging or evolving skills?Are you creating new roles to support critical learners in the new learning system?*Ask Yourself*The Evolving Role of Learning in Workforce TransformationJust as the HR function has created many new job roles such as Director of Remote Work and Employee Well-Being Leader,the learning function must also take stock of what is needed to deliver workforce transformation and create new job roles focused on building new capabilities in digital marketing,immersive learning and agile methodologies.”Jeanne Meister,Founder,Future Workplace*s19The BusinessConsultingRelationship ManagersPerformance ConsultantsDemand PlannersTechnologistsLearning FunctionThe WorkersDelivery Classroom LearningVirtual Classroom ProductionVendor ManagementLogisticiansExperience ManagementCommunity/Campaign ManagersLearning AdministratorsJourney DevelopersData AnalystsExperience DesignLearning ArchitectsJourney DesignersPlatform DevelopersContent DevelopmentContent CuratorsContent DevelopersSmooth Operators*The Evolving Role of Learning in Workforce TransformationA value stream of connected services78%see the Digital Marketing Leader as a key new job role for the learning function.*20Money Well Spent21High performing learning functions pull 6 big levers to get the best value and results.Money Well Spent?Are you pulling the right levers to drive down cost and accelerate performance?Shared ServicesProcessesDeliveryOperating ModelContentMeasurementMeasurement Mapping&Insightful Data AnalysisModern Learning TransformationEfficient Training Delivery&Vendor ManagementProcess Reengineering&Automation Organisation&Operating Model Redesign Combined with Offshoring Shared Service Learning&Administration SupportAre you focusing on these critical areas and pulling the right levers to get the best value and workforce performance?Ask Yourself22Money Well Spent?Any ambitious learning function looks to increase its efficiency whilst increasing its impact on performance.By carefully focusing on these critical areas,youll be better positioned to improve speed and competency,and deliver real business value,all whilst keeping costs down.Its all about getting better results for less spend.So its not a matter of whether or not you should be pulling on these levers,but how and when.Organisation&Operating Model Redesign Combined with OffshoringGovernance is key.Getting the most out of your organisation and operating models is crucial.How do you organise your teams and resources?Are you offshoring?By asking these questions and consolidating your support functions,youll free up capacity,streamline workflows,and increase efficiency.Process Reengineering&AutomationRemove waste and friction from back office operations with processes that are more streamlined and efficient,using process automation where appropriate.Implement workflow and simplify class and resource requests.Shared Service Learning&Administration SupportA shared service model ensures there is always someone available to support demand,providing flexibility and efficiency.Learning and administrations should streamline processes and procedures.Online engagement and enrolment helps users schedule training and self-manage classes,with a help desk for support when needed.Measurement Mapping&Insightful Data AnalysisEstablish your goals through measurement mapping.What do you want to achieve?What are you measuring?Use that data to evaluate your success and identify improvements.This will inform your decision making and ensure that you meet business outcomes.Efficient Training Delivery&Vendor ManagementUnderstand your vendors and suppliers.Are they being used efficiently?Are they providing value for money?Essentially,are they the right vendor to deliver your training?Getting it right,using the correct pricing models,and having diligent negotiation of framework agreements will all produce cost savings.Modern Learning TransformationModern learning transformation is about putting learning in the flow of work.Providing content to learners where and when they need it.Creating blended learning paths is also key.Rationalise your content,make it learner focused to increase the reach of your training,and improve speed to competency.23Core Strength24Learning functions need to build their core strength in 3 fundamental ways to ensure they are fit to be valuable business partners.Strategically Aligned:Strategic alignment to the business ensures that we remain relevant by connecting learning journeys with business goals.Using business data creates better decisions and results in improved performance outcomes.Operationally Excellent:Optimising operations ensures a better workforce experience aligned to business goals.Value Creators:L&D is not just about adding value,but creating value.Our approach to measurement and performance is what moves L&D from being a cost centre into a revenue stream.Core StrengthIs your learning function fit to give the workforce what it needs?When we talk about transformation,organisations need to be open to thinking about new ways of working and potential growth opportunities for the business.Companies must cultivate new skillsets and mindsets needed for innovation to drive real transformation such as creative problem solving,collaboration,and leading through uncertainty.It is this combination of technology acumen and core human skills that will produce lasting results.Matt Donovan,Chief Learning&Innovation Officer at GP StrategiesAre you strategically aligned with the business?Are your operations running efficiently as they can be?Are you creating value for the business?Ask YourselfLets TalkHow can we help you take on the new world of work?2022 GP Strategies Corporation.All rights reserved.GP Strategies and GP Strategies with logo design are registered trademarks of GP Strategies Corporation.All other trademarks are trademarks or registered trademarks of their respective owners.PlayBook Crunch Time For Learning&Development v1.0 March 2022.inddFor more information visit:

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仲量联行：2023物流和工业地产中的自动化技术调研报告（英文版）（15页）.pdf

Research Asia Pacific|March 2023The race towards automating L&I real estate ContentsContentJLL2 JLL3Survey PrefaceAutomation hardware technologies automate the process of storing and moving items through supply chain channels.Typically,such technologies are used in logistics and industrial(L&I)facilities such as distribution centres and warehouses,to organise and transport products.By automating certain tasks,automation technology can help logistics companies save time,reduce costs,improve accuracy,and enhance the overall customer experience.The survey focuses on automation hardware technologies typically used in L&I facilities.These technologies are shown in the table below.The surveys objective is to understand how occupiers use automation technology,and how they plan to use it in the future(2030).There were 55 respondents-the respondent profile is on page 5.The survey was conducted between November and December 2022.Automation hardware technology(technology)*Autonomous mobile robots(AMRs)ExoskeletonsAutomated guided vehicles(AGVs)Light directed pickingAutomated storage and retrieval systems(AS/RS)Layer pickingAutomated stretch wrap machinesSortation systemsAuto-storeTelescopic conveyorsAuto-unloadingVision pickingCarouselVoice picking*See definitions in Appendix The race towards automating L&I real estate Technology plays an increasingly important role in logistics and industrial(L&I)real estate.And across all L&I technological solutions,automation technology has the greatest impact on built real estate it impacts the size,scale,scope and use of L&I assets.It also has the greatest impact on operational processes.Automation technology enables occupiers to maximise efficiency,accuracy and speed across operations.It allows for executing more complex tasks faster,while maintaining health and safety requirements.And it can be more cost-effective across some industries and for some occupiers.However,the way occupiers view technology1 is highly idiosyncratic,specific to throughput,operational processes,L&I space footprint/network,technical knowledge,and labour cost,amongst others.To better understand how occupiers use automation technology,we conducted a survey of occupiers across Asia Pacific.The key findings are:12345671.The term technology or technologies in this report refers to automation technology.They are used interchangeablyLimited technology uptake currently,but ambitious future technological objectivesThe most-used technologies are those that provide outsized efficiency benefits,improve storage capacity,increase accuracy,and have greater flexibility Maximising operational efficiency and future-proofing assets are why occupiers adopt technologyFalling initial costs are key for en-masse adoption,as well as shortening the payback period Technology capital expenditure(CapEx)will increasingly replace labour wages,but the pace at which this occurs will depend on the balance between cost and efficiency Occupiers have significant growth plans,and more L&I space will be needed to meet growing space requirementsTechnology will be critical in the future,but it will play a limited role in achieving ESG targetsJLL4Executive SummaryThe race towards automating L&I real estate By typeBy location of warehouses/logistics facilitiesBy industryChemicals2%Automotive2%Life sciences7%Electronics13%Other*22%Food&beverage24%Consumer goods31%Japan 58%Mainland China 36%Singapore 35%Indonesia 29%Australia 27%India 25%Malaysia 25%Thailand 24%South Korea 22%New Zealand 20%Hong Kong SAR 18%Philippines 16%Taiwan 16%JLL5Respondent ProfileSource:JLL,1Q23*Includes other types of logistics providers(intermediaries,logistics processing firms,other transportation companies),shipping companies,sales,distribution and marketing companies,and real estate companiesSource:JLL,1Q23*Includes the energy,building materials,machinery and general retail sectors Note:%may not equal to 100%due to roundingOffline-only retailerExpress and parcel deliveryHealth/life science firmOmni-channel retailerManufacturer3PL providerOther*38%9%9%2%4%The race towards automating L&I real estate By Asia Pacific revenueBy real estate strategyUS$1.0 25bn US$25 bnUS$50-100mn29%2%UnsureExclusively ownExclusively leaseMostly own51%5%5%Mostly leaseJLL6Source:JLL,1Q23*Includes the energy,building materials,machinery and general retail sectors Note:%may not equal to 100%due to roundingThe race towards automating L&I real estate JLL71.Large future opportunity Technological innovation and adoption are widely promoted themes in L&I real estate.Along with ESG,automation technology is widely seen as an important differentiator for modern facilities.However,in the context of the broader market,the current technological impact is narrow.Almost 40%of survey respondents do not currently use any form of automation technology in their warehouse/logistics operations.And for those that do,usage is still relatively limited.This means the opportunity for differentiation is high.More than one in two plan on increasing their use of automation technology by more than 25%compared to current levels.While achieving these objectives depends on a number of factors(costs being the biggest factor see page 10),the movement towards greater technology utilisation is clear.And an important outcome is the impact this will have on how L&I facilities are designed,and how prime grade assets and portfolios are assessed in the future.Survey ResultsQ:By 2030,compared to current levels,do you expect your company to increase or decrease their use of automation technologies?Q.Do you use automation technology?Source:JLL,1Q23Source:JLL,1Q23Yes62%No38%IncreaseDecrease22P1%to 501%to 25%1%to 10%-10%to-1%2%The race towards automating L&I real estate JLL8Technology typically used by occupiers*2.Wide range of technologyOccupiers use a wide range of automation technology,despite penetration being relatively limited.In general,3PL operators and other logistics service providers tend to use Automated Guided Vehicles(AGVs),Autonomous Guided Robots(AMRs)and voice picking more across their operations,particularly for their e-commerce clients.They also tend to use telescopic conveyers which are easy to deploy and suitable for generic cargo loading and Source:JLL,1Q23*See definitions in Appendix unloading.Omnichannel and e-commerce retailers typically utilise sortation systems for large throughput volume.Looking forward,Automated Storage and Retrieval Systems(AS/RS)may be most important by 2030,as identified by one in five respondents.This was followed by AGVs and AMRs.These systems typically provide outsized efficiency benefits,improve storage capacity,increase accuracy,lower operating costs over the long term,and enhance safety outcomes.Definitions for each technology can be found in the Appendix.Automated stretch wrap machines35%Automated storage and retrieval systems(AS/RS)33%Automated guided vehicles(AGVs)29%Sortation systems24rousel16%Telescopic conveyors16%Autonomous mobile robots(AMRs)13%Voice picking13%Light directed picking11%Vision picking7%Exoskeletons7%Layer picking5%Auto-unloading5%Auto-store5%The race towards automating L&I real estate JLL93.Operational excellence is key Occupiers use automation technology to improve efficiency,accuracy and speed,effectively making their operations as economical as possible.Around three in five respondents cited this as a top three factor as to why they use automation technologies.This is unsurprising.Compared to manual labour,technology offers companies significant efficiency upside.The underpinning factor is scalability.Automation technology can help companies handle a larger volume of goods and shipments,allowing them to expand their operations and grow their business.While initial costs are a hurdle,the typical technology vs labour performance gap is very wide.Equal first with improving efficiency,accuracy and speed was the need to future-proof operations.Supply chain disruptions,technological advancement,and labour market issues are forcing companies to make their operations resilient,flexible and adaptable for the future.Some technologies such as AMRs and AGVs are highly flexible.On the other hand,AS/RS systems have very little flexibility and pose a big risk if a companys business model or sales volumes change.Rounding out the top three factors why companies use automation technology is reducing labour costs.Labour is typically the largest operational cost for occupiers(up to 50%,depending on the market).And with the increasing need to control costs and to reduce uncertainty,particularly in a high inflationary environment,the scope for greater technological uptake could be significant.Source:JLL,1Q23*Equal first placeNote:Ranking and%refers to factors cited as a top three reason62%Improve efficiency,accuracy and speed*62%Future-proof operations*50%Reduce labour costsTop three factors why companies use automation technologiesThe race towards automating L&I real estate JLL104.Costs are the biggest hurdle High initial capital investment costs(initial set up and implementation costs)are the single biggest hurdle in adopting automation technologies.85%of respondents ranked this as a top three factor while,while 62%cited this as the top roadblock.Related to this is return on investment.The time to recoup costs/long payback period is the second biggest roadblock as cited by survey respondents.In addition to the significant upfront capital for set up and implementation,there will be ongoing maintenance and repairs,as well as the need to retrain existing employees to operate and manage the new technology.A lease to a 3PL provider adds further complexity.3PL customers in APAC typically dont want more than a three-year contract with the 3PL provider.This is typically too short a period to recoup the CapEx investment,providing significant disincentive for 3PL providers to invest in technology.Having an unsuitable facility rounds out the top three factors that limit the adoption of automation technology.Automation technology can be difficult and costly to adapt to different occupiers.As such,Build-To-Suit(BTS)facilities typically incorporate more automation technology solutions.Speculatively built stock is of course more generic.While this allows more flexibility for designing and incorporating technology,it may not be suitable for occupiers with specific technological requirements.Compounding this are the relatively short leases of 2-3 years in many markets.This can provide even less incentive for occupiers to invest in automation.Source:JLL,1Q23*Initial set up and implementation costsNote:Ranking and%refers to factors cited as a top three reasonTop three roadblocks in adopting automation technologies85%High initial capital investment*47%Payback period too long33sign of warehouse/logistics facility is not idealThe race towards automating L&I real estate No AutomationFull AutomationLabour workload heavyTech workload heavyBalanced20304%B%Now9S8%JLL115.A balanced labour-technology strategy is the futureCurrently,around nine in 10 respondents employ a labour workload heavy strategy.This means that more than 80%of the workload is done by labour,and less than 20%is done by automation technology.While the ratios will differ if segmented by occupier groups,geographies,and building grade,this does reflect the current inertia of many occupiers in adopting more technology across their portfolios.That said,occupiers have ambitious longer-term technological goals.By 2030,the majority of respondents expect to transition into a balanced labour-technology strategy a workload ratio of 40-60%labour/40-60%automation technology.The shift to a more balanced strategy will mean that technology CapEx will increasingly replace labour wages.Perhaps paradoxically,automation technology costs will need to fall in order for occupiers to achieve their technological goals.According to Statista,the average cost of an industrial robot will fall by 60%by 2025(from 2017 levels)2.While the cost threshold will differ between different groups,it is clear from the survey findings that costs will need to fall before automation technology reaches mass adoption.Source:JLL,1Q23 Labour workload heavy:80%labour,20%technologyBalanced:40-60%labour,40-60%technologyTech workload heavy:80%technology2.Source:Ark Invest;ID 1120530,Statista,2020.An Industrial robot is a programmable,mechanical device used in place of a person to perform dangerous or repetitive tasks with a high degree of accuracyQ.For one of your typical warehouse/logistics facilities,what is the workload ratio between labour and automation technologies?The race towards automating L&I real estate JLL126.More logistics space is neededSimilar to their technological ambitions,survey respondents also have robust expansionary goals.Almost one in three expect to increase their Asia Pacific warehouse/logistics footprint by between 25%and 50%by 2030.An even more ambitious one in five expect their companies footprint to rise by more than 50%over the same time period.Asia Pacifics L&I market is rapidly expanding.The market is currently in a strong supply wave,with almost 28 million sqm of prime stock to be completed this year.Based on current average capital values,this means that the prime L&I investible universe may increase by an estimated USD 38 billion in 2023.However,rising construction costs and interest rates could lead to wide scale project delays.In any case,the L&I sectors longer-term expansion is clear and will lead to a larger universe for both occupiers and investors.By 2030,compared to current levels,do you expect your companys total Asia Pacific warehouse/logistics space footprint to increase or decrease?7.Limited role for technology in ESGTechnology and ESG are recognised as important criteria for occupiers,developers and investors,particularly as it relates to their future strategies.But what role can automation technology play in helping achieve companies ESG targets?Only a limited role,according to the majority of survey respondents.Nonetheless,a minority of 29%think that automation technology can support their ESG objectives.This may be through energy efficiency gains,decarbonising supply chains,or through more robust health and safety outcomes.51)%2%-25%to-10%-10%to 0%0%to 10%to 25%to 50P%My company does not have specific ESG objectivesUnsureTo a great extentTo a limited extentTo no extent29S%5%4%9%Q.To what extent do you see automation technology playing a role in your company achieving its ESG objectives?The race towards automating L&I real estate JLL13AppendixAutonomous mobile robots(AMRs):Self-guided robots used in material handling and transportation.They navigate autonomously using sensors,cameras,and algorithms and can perform tasks such as transporting materials,picking and sorting inventory,and adapting to changing conditions.AMRs offer increased efficiency,reduced labour costs,improved accuracy,and greater flexibility.They are often used in logistics,manufacturing,and e-commerce.Automated Guide Vehicles(AGVs):A type of mobile robot used to automate material handling and transport tasks.They are self-guided vehicles used in material handling operations to transport goods,supplies,and raw materials within a warehouse,manufacturing plant,or distribution centre.They use sensors,lasers,and other technologies to navigate autonomously and follow pre-determined paths,reducing the need for manual labour and improving operational efficiency.Automated storage and retrieval systems(AS/RS):Computer-controlled systems used to store and retrieve materials,products,and goods in industrial environments.These systems typically consist of multiple storage locations,such as shelves,pallets,or containers,that are managed by automated equipment,such as cranes,conveyors,or robots.AS/RS can be configured for a wide range of applications,from small parts storage to large-scale distribution centres,and they provide significant benefits over traditional manual storage methods,including improved accuracy,increased efficiency,and reduced labour costs.Automated stretch wrap machines:Used to secure and protect products during storage and transportation.These machines use stretch wrap film,which is a flexible and durable material that is stretched around a product or pallet to provide a secure,protective barrier.Automated stretch wrap machines typically consist of a turntable,a film carriage,and a cutting mechanism.The turntable rotates the product or pallet,while the film carriage dispenses and wraps the stretch wrap film around it.They are commonly used in a variety of industries,including manufacturing,retail,and logistics,to secure and protect products during storage and transportation.Auto-store:A type of automated storage and retrieval system(AS/RS)specifically designed for the handling and storage of packages and parcels in distribution centres and e-commerce fulfilment centres.This type of system is characterised by its compact design,high-density storage capabilities,and fast,reliable retrieval times.Auto-store systems typically consist of multiple storage locations,such as bins or trays,that are managed by automated equipment,such as conveyors,robots,or cranes,to move packages and parcels in and out of storage.Auto-unloading:An automated system that efficiently unloads packages and parcels from delivery vehicles,such as trucks,trains,or ships.This type of system typically consists of a conveyor belt or a series of conveyors,robots,or other automated equipment that can quickly and accurately sort,inspect,and transfer packages and parcels from the delivery vehicle to a storage location or further along the distribution chain.The race towards automating L&I real estate JLL14Carousel:A type of automated storage and retrieval system(AS/RS)that consists of a rotating platform with multiple storage locations,such as shelves,bins,or trays.The carousel rotates to present a specific storage location to the operator or an automated picking device,allowing for quick and efficient access to stored items.Carousels are often used in a variety of applications,including order fulfilment,small parts storage,and inventory management.The use of carousels in logistics helps companies optimise their operations and better meet the demands of modern e-commerce and distribution operations.Exoskeletons:Wearable devices that provide additional support and strength to the wearer.These devices are designed to be worn on the outside of the body,over clothing,and are equipped with motors,sensors,and control systems that enhance the wearers physical capabilities.They are used to assist workers in performing physically demanding tasks,such as lifting heavy objects or working in awkward positions,with less strain and fatigue.Exoskeletons have the potential to change manual labour activity by providing workers with increased strength and support,reducing the physical demands of the job,and improving safety and efficiency.Light directed picking:A method of order picking in which a picker follows illuminated pathways or lighting cues to locate and select items for an order.This method of order picking is typically used in warehouses and distribution centres to increase the efficiency and accuracy of the order picking process.By automating the picking process,light directed picking helps companies optimise their operations and better meet the demands of modern e-commerce and distribution operations.Layer picking:A method of order picking where items are picked and arranged in layers within a shipping container.The goal is to optimise space,reduce voids,and minimise damage.In layer picking,the heaviest items are picked first and placed in the bottom layer,with lighter items added in subsequent layers.Layer picking reduces manual handling,reduces the risk of injury,and improves overall productivity.It also optimises shipping container space to reduce shipping costs and improve efficiency.Sortation systems:Automated material handling systems that are used to sort items into specific groups based on certain criteria,such as size,weight,shape,destination,or other factors.They consist of a series of conveyor belts,chutes,diverters,and other components that work together to direct items to the correct sorting destination.The system is controlled by a warehouse management system(WMS)or other type of software.Sortation systems can be designed to handle a wide range of items,including packages,containers,pallets,and other types of products.Telescopic conveyors:Are a type of material handling equipment used in loading/unloading operations in warehouses and distribution centres.They consist of modular sections on wheels that extend and retract to reach the desired length.The conveyor belt is mounted on a telescopic boom that extends from a fixed base and can be adjusted in height to match the load/unload point.This helps to reduce the need for manual handling of packages,improving safety and efficiency in the workplace.Vision picking:In a vision picking system,a camera captures an image of the items to be picked,and computer vision algorithms analyse the image to determine the items location and identity.The system then provides instructions to a robotic arm or other automated picking device to select the item.Vision picking provides several benefits over traditional manual picking methods,including improved accuracy,increased efficiency,and reduced labour costs.Voice picking:In a voice picking system,a worker wears a headset equipped with a microphone,and uses voice commands to communicate with the warehouse management system(WMS).The WMS provides the worker with verbal instructions to select items and the worker confirms the selection with a voice command.This method helps to automate and streamline the order picking process,reducing the chance for errors and increasing efficiency.The use of voice recognition technology also allows workers to keep their hands free for other tasks,improving overall productivity in the warehouse or distribution centre.The race towards automating L&I real estate About JLLJLL(NYSE:JLL)is a leading professional services firm that specializes in real estate and investment management.JLL shapes the future of real estate for a better world by using the most advanced technology to create rewarding opportunities,amazing spaces and sustainable real estate solutions for our clients,our people and our communities.JLL is a Fortune 500 company with annual revenue of$20.9 billion,operations in over 80 countries and a global workforce of more than 103,000 as of December 31,2022.JLL is the brand name,and a registered trademark,of Jones Lang LaSalle Incorporated.For further information,visit .Asia Pacific1 Paya Lebar Link,#10-08 PLQ2Singapore 408533tel 65 6220 .sgResearchRoddy AllanChief Research OfficerAsia PPeter GuevarraDirector,Research ConsultancyAsia PCapital MarketsStuart CrowCEO,Capital MarketsAsia PTom WoolhouseHead of Logistics&IndustrialAsia PMichael IgnatiadisHead of Supply Chain&Logistics SolutionsAsia PMark GladuSenior Director,Logistics&Industrial Capital MarketsAsia PTom OverDirector,Capital Markets TransactionsLeasing,Asia P

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世界银行：下行的长期增长前景：趋势、期望和政策（2023）（英文版）（564页）.pdf

Trends,Expectations,and PoliciesFalling Long-TermGrowth ProspectsEdited by M.Ayhan Koseand Franziska OhnsorgeAdvance Edition This book presents a sobering analysis of the secular growth slowdown based on the most comprehensive database of potential growth estimates available to date.With nearly all the forces that have driven growth and prosperity in recent decades now weakened,the book argues that a prolonged period of weakness is underway,with serious implications for emerging market and developing economies.The authors call for bold policy actions at both the national and global levels to lift growth prospects.The book is essential reading for policy makers,economists,and anyone concerned about the future of the global economy.Beatrice Weder di Mauro Professor of International Economics,Geneva Graduate Institute,and President of the Centre for Economic Policy Research(CEPR)A terrific book that couldnt be published at a better time.As economic growth is in the midst of a sustained slowdown across regions,there is an urgent need for understanding the factors behind these developments and for identifying policy solutions.This volume tremendously delivers on both fronts and more as it also introduces a comprehensive global database on potential growth that will facilitate much needed research in this area.Undoubtedly,the books insightful analysis and policy recommendations will be a useful tool for policy makers around the world for years to come.A tour de force that is a must read!Liliana Rojas-Suarez Director of the Latin America Initiative and Senior Fellow,Center for Global Development(CGD)Economic policy making is becoming increasingly complicated in the 2020s.In addition to tackling traditional tradeoffs in aggregate demand management and improving efficiency on the supply-side,policy makers need to address new priorities and challenges,from addressing climate change and its impacts to improving income distribution,all in the context of lower growth rates,waning productivity growth,and flattening of the globalization process that has brought unprecedented prosperity across the globe and lifted more than a billion people out of poverty.In Falling Long-Term Growth Prospects,the authors do a phenomenal job of assessing these trends at the global and regional levels,identifying and unpacking salient 21st century policy challenges,and providing thoughtful and evidenced-based policy prescriptions for leaders in advanced,emerging market,and developing economies.Importantly,the book underscores that these challenges tend to be global and,hence,global cooperation at all levels is necessary to achieve optimal results.Alas,we seem to be going in the opposite direction;this book offers a roadmap to put us back on the path to creating a more integrated,prosperous,and equitable global community.Michael G.Plummer Director,SAIS Europe and Eni Professor of International Economics,Johns Hopkins University Advance praise for Falling Long-Term Growth Prospects:Trends,Expectations,and Policies The book is a timely,lucid,and comprehensive compendium of papers analyzing the growth experiences of emerging and developing economies during the last three decades.It especially focuses on the economic slowdown of the last decade and predicts that the slowdown could easily continue for at least another decade.The prognosis is thus stark,and urges timely policy actions.Not just policy makers and practitioners,but equally academics and students will find the book to be a compelling resource for better comprehending the dynamics of the ongoing structural slowdown around the world,specifically in the developing world.This will also enable all the key stakeholders to come up with innovative ways and out-of-the-box solutions to address this worrisome issue.All in all,the book therefore offers compelling reading as well as a roadmap for future policies.Poonam Gupta Director General of the National Council of Applied Economic Research(NCAER),and Member of the Economic Advisory Council to Indias Prime Minister As if the convulsions of COVID,extreme weather events and the Russia-Ukraine war were not enough,developing countries are facing a silent crisis:their long-term growth prospects are declining.This carefully researched and compellingly argued book shows that,thanks mainly to demographic and climate change,potential growth will be significantly lower in the future than in the past.The book also identifies policies that can reverse this trend.We must adopt these policies now;we owe it to our children.Shanta Devarajan Professor of the Practice of International Development at Edmund A.Walsh School of Foreign Service,Georgetown University Nobel Laureate Robert Lucas once wrote that the consequences of economic growth for human welfare are staggering and that once one starts thinking about what drives growth“it is hard to think about anything else.”In the aftermath of the Global Financial Crisis,economic growth in emerging and developing economies started slowing down.This important volume shows that this growth slowdown was not fully driven by cyclical factors and that,absent a massive effort,in terms of structural policy reform it may persist for the remainder of this decade.Without sustained growth and investment,it will be impossible to reach global development goals in terms of poverty reduction or addressing climate change.The volume provides a unified framework centered on the concept of potential growth and,by identifying the drivers of potential growth,it provides a set of empirically grounded policy suggestions aimed at increasing potential growth.It also develops and describes a novel dataset of measures of potential growth covering more than 170 countries for a 40-year period.The book and the associated data will be invaluable tools for researchers who are trying to uncover what Lucas called the“mechanics of economic development.”Ugo Panizza Pictet Chair in Finance and Development,Geneva Graduate Institute,and Vice President of the Centre for Economic Policy Research(CEPR)Advance praise for Falling Long-Term Growth Prospects:Trends,Expectations,and Policies This is timely and important work.It breaks new ground by assembling and analyzing the most comprehensive international database to date on potential growth and its drivers.It offers valuable advice on policy options to countries as they face the prospect of slowing long-term economic growth and a range of shocks.An essential reading for both policy makers and more broadly for those interested in current global economic trends and challenges.Zia Qureshi Senior Fellow,Brookings Institution This book is a must read for economists and policy makers alike.It provides a new and unique database for potential output growth covering a large set of countries.The book also offers a thorough analysis of the drivers of potential output growth.It argues that the recent weakness in growth will continue for the remainder of the present decade and comes up with policy conclusions to reverse this trend.Jakob de Haan Professor of Political Economy,University of Groningen,The Netherlands Advance praise for Falling Long-Term Growth Prospects:Trends,Expectations,and Policies v Falling LongFalling LongFalling LongFalling Long-Term Term Term Term Growth ProspectsGrowth ProspectsGrowth ProspectsGrowth Prospects Falling LongFalling LongFalling LongFalling Long-Term Term Term Term Growth ProspectsGrowth ProspectsGrowth ProspectsGrowth Prospects Edited by Trends,Expectations,and Policies M.Ayhan Kose and Franziska Ohnsorge Advance Edition The text of this advance edition is a work in progress for the forthcoming book Falling Long-Term Growth Prospects:Trends,Expectations,and Policies.A PDF of the final book,once published,will be available at https:/openknowledge.worldbank.org/,and print copies can be ordered at .Please use the final version of the book for citation,reproduction,and adaptation purposes.2023 International Bank for Reconstruction and Development/The World Bank 1818 H Street NW,Washington,DC 20433 Telephone:202-473-1000;Internet:www.worldbank.org This work is a product of the staff of The World Bank with external contributions.The findings,interpretations,and conclusions expressed in this work do not necessarily reflect the views of The World Bank,its Board of Executive Directors,or the governments they represent.The World Bank does not guarantee the accuracy,completeness,or currency of the data included in this work and does not assume responsibility for any errors,omissions,or discrepancies in the information,or liability with respect to the use of or failure to use the information,methods,processes,or conclusions set forth.The boundaries,colors,denominations,and other information shown on any map in this work do not imply any judgment on the part of The World Bank concerning the legal status of any territory or the endorsement or acceptance of such boundaries.Nothing herein shall constitute 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images.All queries on rights and licenses should be addressed to World Bank Publications,The World Bank Group,1818 H Street NW,Washington,DC 20433,USA;e-mail:pubrightsworldbank.org.Cover image:Getty Images.Used with the permission of Getty Images.Further permission required for reuse.Cover design:Adriana Maximiliano,World Bank Group.ix Summary of Contents Foreword.xix Acknowledgments.xxiii Authors.xxv Abbreviations.xxvii Overview.o.1 M.Ayhan Kose and Franziska OhnsorgePart I.Potential Growth:An Economys Speed Limit.1 Chapter 1 Potential Not Realized:An International Database of Potential Growth.3 Sinem Kilic Celik,M.Ayhan Kose,Franziska Ohnsorge,and Franz Ulrich Ruch Chapter 2 Regional Dimensions of Potential Growth:Hopes and Realities .65 Sergiy Kasyanenko,Philip Kenworthy,Sinem Kilic Celik,Franz Ulrich Ruch,Ekaterine Vashakmadze,Collette Wheeler Part II.Investment:Time for a Big Push.151 Chapter 3 The Global Investment Slowdown:Challenges and Policies.153 Kersten Stamm and Dana Vorisek Chapter 4 Regional Dimensions of Investment:Moving in the Right Direction?.211 Sergiy Kasyanenko,Philip Kenworthy,Sinem Kilic Celik,Franz Ulrich Ruch,Ekaterine Vashakmadze,Dana Vorisek,and Collette Wheeler Part III.Policies:Recognition,Formulation,and Implementation.287 Chapter 5 Potential Growth Prospects:Risks,Rewards,and Policies .289 Sinem Kilic Celik,M.Ayhan Kose,and Franziska Ohnsorge Chapter 6 Trade as an Engine of Growth:Sputtering but Fixable.327 Franziska Ohnsorge and Lucia Quaglietti Chapter 7 Services-Led Growth:Better Prospects after the Pandemic?.367 Gaurav Nayyar and Elwyn Davies xi Contents Foreword.xix Acknowledgments.xxiii Authors.xxv Abbreviations.xxvii Overview.o.1 Slowing growth,dimming prospects.o.1 Magnifying challenges.o.4 One tool to meet multiple policy priorities.o.4 Understanding long-term growth:A framework.o.6 Contributions to the literature.o.6 Key findings and policy messages.o.8 Synopsis.o.20 Future research directions.o.44 Annex A Tables.o.47 References.r.o.1 Part I.Potential Growth:An Economys Speed Limit.1 Chapter 1 Potential Not Realized:An International Database of Potential Growth.3 Introduction.3 Database.7 Evolution of potential growth.12 How do short-term shocks affect potential growth?.24 Conclusions.26 Annex 1A Production function approach.31 Annex 1B Univariate filters.35 Annex 1C Multivariate filters.37 Annex 1D Long-term growth expectations.40 Annex 1E Local projection estimation.41 Annex 1F Tables.42 References.r.1.1 Chapter 2 Regional Dimensions of Potential Growth:Hopes and Realities.65 Introduction.65 Regional potential growth in the rear-view mirror.67 xii Prospects for regional potential growth.70 Regional reform priorities.72 East Asia and Pacific.74 Europe and Central Asia.87 Latin America and the Caribbean.104 Middle East and North Africa.116 South Asia.127 Sub-Saharan Africa.138 References.r.2.1 Part II.Investment:Time for a Big Push.151 Chapter 3 The Global Investment Slowdown:Challenges and Policies.153 Introduction.153 Trends and fluctuations in investment growth.157 Macroeconomic backdrop.161 Box 3.1 Investment-less credit booms.164 Empirical analysis of investment growth.171 Investment prospects.172 Implications of weak investment growth.175 Box 3.2 Macroeconomic implications of foreign direct investment in EMDEs.176 Policies to promote investment growth.190 Conclusion.196 Annex 3A Determinants of investment growth:empirical framework.199 Annex 3B Investment growth and reforms.201 Annex 3C Tables.202 References.r.3.1 Chapter 4 Regional Dimensions of Investment:Moving in the Right Direction?.211 Introduction.211 Investment trends.212 Investment needs.215 Policies to boost investment.218 East Asia and Pacific.220 Europe and Central Asia.230 Latin America and the Caribbean.243 Middle East and North Africa.254 xiii South Asia.264 Sub-Saharan Africa .275 References.r.4.1 Part III.Policies:Recognition,Formulation,and Implementation.287 Chapter 5 Potential Growth Prospects:Risks,Rewards,and Policies.289 Introduction.289 Prospects for potential growth.293 Risks to potential growth prospects:downside scenario.301 Policies to lift potential growth:upside scenarios.304 Conclusion.318 Annex 5A Literature review:effects of economic reforms on growth.321 Annex 5B Methodology:institutional reform impact.324 References.r.5.1 Chapter 6 Trade as an Engine of Growth:Sputtering but Fixable.327 Introduction.327 Trade and growth:a review of the literature.331 Box 6.1 Understanding the determinants of trade costs.332 Recent trade growth and prospects.342 Patterns in trade costs.348 Correlates of trade costs.350 Policies to lower trade costs.358 Conclusions.365 References.r.6.1 Chapter 7 Services-Led Growth:Better Prospects after the Pandemic?.367 Introduction.367 How has the services sector shaped economic growth?.370 How has the COVID-19 pandemic affected the services sectors growth?.379 How can digitalization transform opportunities for future services sector growth?.385 What policies can best harness the services sectors growth potential after the pandemic?.390 Conclusion.396 References.r.7.1 xiv Figures o.1 Growth.o.3 o.2 Drivers of output growth.o.5 o.3 Lasting damage to potential growth of recessions.o.10 o.4 Potential growth.o.12 o.5 Global trade and investment.o.13 o.6 Policy options.o.15 o.7 Evolution of potential growth.o.24 o.8 Potential growth in EMDE regions.o.26 o.9 Global investment.o.28 o.10 Investment in EMDE regions.o.32 o.11 Prospects for potential growth and policies to lift it.o.36 o.12 Reducing trade costs to boost growth prospects.o.40 o.13 The role of services in the global economy.o.43 1.1 Estimates of potential growth.11 1.2 Comparison of potential growth estimates.13 1.3 Evolution of potential growth.14 1.4 Drivers of potential growth.16 1.5 Potential growth around the global recessions of 2009 and 2020.18 1.6 Drivers of potential growth around the global recessions of 2009 and 2020 .19 1.7 Characteristics of recessions.20 1.8 Effects of recessions on potential growth.22 1.9 Effects of banking crises and epidemics on potential growth.24 1.10 Effects of adverse events on growth of employment,TFP,and investment.27 1.11 Effects of adverse events on growth of employment,TFP,and investment in advanced economies and EMDEs.28 2.1 Actual and potential growth in EMDEs.66 2.2 Potential growth in EMDE regions,2000-10 and 2011-20.68 2.3 Contributions to potential growth in EMDE regions.70 2.4 EAP:Regional actual and potential output growth.75 2.5 EAP:Drivers of potential output growth.78 2.6 EAP:Potential growthbaseline and reform scenarios.82 2.7 ECA:Output growth and potential growth.88 2.8 ECA:Potential output growth and its drivers.91 2.9 ECA:Drivers of potential output growth.94 xv 2.10 ECA:Potential output growth:scenario results.100 2.11 LAC:Output growth and drivers of potential growth.106 2.12 LAC:Potential output growth.108 2.13 LAC:Potential growth prospects.110 2.14 LAC:Policies to raise potential output growth.112 2.15 MNA:Output growth and drivers of potential growth.117 2.16 MNA:Potential output growth.119 2.17 MNA:Policies to raise potential growth.123 2.18 SAR:Output growth and drivers of potential growth.128 2.19 SAR:Potential output growth.130 2.20 SAR:Policies to raise potential output growth.134 2.21 SSA:Economic growth and drivers of potential growth.140 2.22 SSA:Obstacles to economic growth and reforms to accelerate potential growth.144 3.1 Investment growth.154 3.2 Private and public investment growth.158 3.3 Investment around global recessions.159 3.4 Median investment around domestic recessions and terms of trade shocks.160 3.5 Commodity prices,terms of trade,and investment growth.162 3.6 Credit growth,debt,and investment growth.163 B3.1.1 Investment and consumption growth during credit booms and deleveraging episodes.167 B3.1.2 Coincidence between investment surges and credit booms.168 B3.1.3 Output growth during credit booms and deleveraging episodes.169 3.7 Estimated contribution of explanatory variables to predicted investment growth.173 3.8 Investment growth outlook.174 3.9 Investment compared to trend.175 B3.2.1 Trends in FDI since 2000.177 B3.2.2 Correlation of FDI,investment,and growth in EMDEs.179 B3.2.3 Correlation of FDI,investment,and growth in EMDEs by host country conditions.180 B3.2.4 Summary of empirical studies of FDI and investment in EMDEs.181 B3.2.5 Summary of empirical studies of FDI and growth in EMDEs.183 3.10 Slowdown in growth of investment and trade.186 3.11 Growth of investment,productivity,and potential output.187 3.12 Investment needs related to climate goals and the Sustainable Development Goals(SDGs)in EMDEs.189 xvi 3.13 Investment growth around reform spurts and setbacks in EMDEs.193 4.1 Average investment growth,by EMDE region.214 4.2 Regional contributions to EMDE investment and investment growth.215 4.3 Regional investment growth prospects.216 4.4 EAP:Investment growth.222 4.5 EAP:Investment growth slowdown and investment needs.224 4.6 EAP:Infrastructure,environment,health,and education indicators.226 4.7 ECA:Investment growth and needs.231 4.8 ECA:Investment prospects.234 4.9 ECA:Financing needs and constraints.238 4.10 LAC:Investment growth.245 4.11 LAC:Correlates of investment growth.247 4.12 LAC:Investment needs.249 4.13 MNA:Investment growth and correlates.255 4.14 MNA:Infrastructure,health,and education indicators.259 4.15 SAR:Investment growth and correlates.266 4.16 SAR:Investment needs.269 4.17 SSA:Investment growth slowdown.278 4.18 SSA:Investment needs.282 5.1 Global output growth and relative per capita incomes.291 5.2 Contributions to potential growth.295 5.3 Total factor productivity growth.296 5.4 Demographics.297 5.5 Evolution of potential growth.298 5.6 Regional potential output growth.300 5.7 Risks to potential growth prospects.302 5.8 Policies to strengthen drivers of potential growth.305 5.9 Effect of policies on potential output growth.308 5.10 Effects of climate-related investment on potential growth.309 5.11 Institutional reforms.317 6.1 Global trade.328 6.2 Factors lowering the elasticity of global trade with respect to global output.343 6.3 Trade during global recessions.345 6.4 Supply chain bottlenecks and trade integration.347 6.5 International trade costs relative to domestic trade costs.351 xvii 6.6 International trade policy,border processes,and logistics.353 6.7 International trade costs in EMDEs,by country characteristics.355 6.8 Services trade restriction policies.357 6.9 Regional trade agreements.360 6.10 Impact of policy improvements on trade costs.363 6.11 Estimated contributions to trade costs.365 7.1 The services sector and structural transformation.372 7.2 The heterogeneity of the services sector.374 7.3 Employment,value added,and productivity in service subsectors.376 7.4 Outward foreign direct investment in the services sector from the United States.378 7.5 Services and manufacturing activity through recessions.379 7.6 The impact of COVID-19 across sectors.381 7.7 COVID-19 and the performance of services sub-sectors.383 7.8 Adoption of digital technologies in EMDEs.384 7.9 Digitalization and services exports.386 7.10 ICT and intangible capital.388 7.11 Digitalization and innovation in the services sector.389 7.12 Diffusion of ICT among services firms.391 7.13 Digital technology enablers.393 Tables A.1 Actual GDP growth(percent).o.47 A.2 Per capita growth(percent).o.47 A.3 Potential GDP growth(percent).o.47 1F.1 Methodology,time,and country coverage.42 1F.2 Methods to estimate potential growth.43 1F.3 Variable list.44 1F.4 Sample coverage for production function-based estimates of potential growth.45 1F.5 Regression results for total factor productivity.46 1F.6 Regression results for total factor productivity.47 1F.7 Regression results for labor force participation rates,baseline.48 1F.8 Regression results for labor force participation rates,robustness test:10-year moving average.50 1F.9 Regression results of labor force participation rates,robustness check:linear-quadratic trend.52 1F.10 Coverage for univariate and multivariate filter-based estimates.54 xviii 1F.11 Coverage for production function approach,filter-based,and expectations-based estimates:advanced economies.55 1F.12 Coverage for production function approach,filter-based,and expectations-based estimates:EMDEs.56 1F.13 List of banking crises.57 1F.14 List of countries affected by epidemics.57 1F.15 Impulse responses of potential growth to recessions.58 1F.16 Impulse responses of potential growth to recessions(other measures).59 1F.17 Impulse responses of potential growth to banking crises and epidemics.60 1F.18 Responses of potential growth to banking crises and epidemics(other measures).61 1F.19 Channels:Impulse responses of TFP,investment,employment and actual growth rates to recessions.62 1F.20 Channels:Impulse responses of TFP,investment,employment and actual growth rates to banking crises and epidemics .63 3C.1 Economies in the investment sample.202 3C.2 Correlates of investment growth.203 3C.3 Correlates of investment growth robustness.204 3C.4 Investment growth around investment climate reform spurts and setbacks.205 3C.5 Estimates of climate-related investment needs.206 5.1 Sample and region coverage.320 B6.1.1 Panel regression results.336 B6.1.2 Panel regression results for subsamples.338 6.1 Data employed in the panel regression .366 xix Foreword The overlapping crises of the past few years have ended a span of nearly three decades of sustained economic growth that brought the world a massive reduction in extreme poverty.Starting in 1990,productivity surged,incomes rose,and inflation fell.Within a generation,about one out of four developing economies leaped to high-income status.Today nearly all the economic forces that drove economic progress are in retreat.In the decade before COVID-19,a global slowdown in productivitywhich is essential for income growth and higher wageswas already adding to concerns about long-term economic prospects.In this decade,total factor productivity is expected to grow at its slowest clip since 2000.Investment growth is weakening:the 2022-24 average will be half that of the previous two decades.The global labor force is also growing sluggishly as populations age in advanced economies and many emerging-market and developing economies(EMDEs).In addition,reversals in human capital triggered by the health shock,school closures and learning losses will have long-lasting effects on the growth of potential output.International tradewhich from the 1990s through 2011 grew twice as fast as GDP growthis now barely matching it.The result could be a lost decade in the makingnot just for some countries or regions as has occurred in the pastbut for the whole world.Without a big and broad policy push to rejuvenate it,the global average potential GDP growth ratethe theoretical growth rate an economy can sustain over the medium term based on investment and productivity rates without risking excess inflationis expected to fall to a three-decade low of 2.2 percent a year between now and 2030,down from 2.6 percent in 2011-21.Thats a steep drop of nearly a third from the 3.5 percent rate that prevailed in the first decade of this century.The decline in potential GDP growth will also be sharp for developing economies,largely because of low investment rates:from an annual average of 6 percent between 2000 and 2010 to an average of 5 percent in 2011-21 and 4 percent over the remainder of this decade.This broad-based slowdown in the growth rate of potential GDP has profound implications for the worlds ability to tackle the growing array of challenges unique to our times.An economys potential GDP growth rate sets boundaries on key policies affecting developmentincluding the level of benchmark interest rates,the range of possible government spending,and the expected size of returns to investors.The potential growth rate can be raised through policies that grow the labor supply,increase productivity,and incentivize investment.Our analysis shows that,if all countries make a strong push,potential global GDP growth can be boosted by 0.7 percentage pointto an annual average rate of 2.9 percent.That would convert an expected slowdown in potential GDP growth into an acceleration.This book lays out an extensive menu of policies to boost growth and highlights six priority interventions:Increasing investment:A major global push for greater investment to achieve development and climate goals,without undermining fiscal sustainability,could xx boost potential growth rates by as much as 0.3 percentage point per year.Business-enabling reforms can be carried out to address a range of impediments to private sector development,such as high business startup costs,weak property rights and corporate governance,inefficient labor-and product-market policies,and shallow financial sectors.Investments aligned with climate goalssuch as in transportation and energy,climate-smart agriculture and manufacturing,and land and water systemscan increase long-term growth and economic resilience to natural disasters.Aligning monetary and fiscal frameworks:Robust macroeconomic policy frameworks are critical to support investor confidence and can moderate the ups and downs of business cycles.They help countries attract investment by instilling investor confidence in national institutions,policy making,and currencies.Such frameworks are most effective when monetary and fiscal policies are aligned in their purpose.They should prioritize inflation,debt,fiscal prudence,and financial-sector stability.Cutting trade costs:Trade costsmostly those associated with shipping,logistics,and regulationscan double the cost of internationally traded goods.Countries with the highest shipping and logistics costs could cut their trade costs in half by adopting the trade-facilitation practices of countries with the lowest shipping and logistics costs.Moreover,trade costs can be reduced in climate-friendly waysby removing the current bias toward carbon-intensive goods inherent in many countries tariff schedules and by eliminating restrictions on access to environmentally friendly goods and services.Capitalizing on services:As international trade in goods has ebbed,the services sector has become an increasingly important engine of growth for developing economies.Exports of digitally delivered professional services related to information and communications technology climbed to more than 50 percent of total service exports in 2021,up from 40 percent in 2019.Developing economies enjoy significant room to grow in this area because of their limited use of such technology in everyday interactions.This requires a renewed focus on education and skills,particularly language and digital skills.Upping labor-force participation.If overall labor-force participation rates,especially among women and older workers,could be boosted to match the best ten-year increase on record,this could increase global potential growth rates by 0.2 percentage point on average by 2030.Globally,average female labor force participation remains three-quarters that of men,and the gap is even larger in EMDEs.In some regions,such as South Asia and the Middle East and North Africa,an increase in female labor-force participation rates to match the EMDE average could boost their potential GDP growth by as much as 1.2 percentage points a year by 2030.Increasing the average participation rate of workers aged 55 years or olderwhich is about half that of 30-to-45-year-old workersis similarly valuable,but will require further investments in work ability,retraining and new skills.Strengthening global cooperation:From 1990 through the mid-2010s,the global economy fired on nearly all cylinders partly because of broad-based international xxi cooperation following the breakup of the Soviet Union.That cooperation has since faltered.Effective new methods of cooperationon trade,climate,finance,debt transparency,fragility,health and infrastructure,to name a fewwill be essential if the world is to mobilize the investment that will be needed to achieve sustainable growth and poverty alleviation.An extraordinary series of setbacks has brought the world to another crossroads.It will take an exceptional mix of focused policies and effective international cooperation to revive growth.The World Bank Group is fully engaged in helping countries design and implement policies and projects that boost growth and median incomes while fostering environmental sustainability and resilience.David Malpass President The World Bank Group xxiii Acknowledgments As Robert Lucas once wrote:“Once one starts to think about economic growth,it is hard to think about anything else.”We are extremely fortunate to have worked with many outstanding colleagues who helped us to think through complex growth challenges confronting the global economy,put together a brand-new dataset of potential growth,and formulate policy responses to deliver better growth outcomes.It would not have been possible to finalize a study of this magnitude without such a dedicated group of collaborators.We are deeply grateful for their insightful contributions.The seven chapters of this book were produced by our tireless co-authors:Elwyn Davies,Sergiy Kasyanenko,Philip Kenworthy,Sinem Kilic Celik,Gaurav Nayyar,Lucia Quaglietti,Franz Ulrich Ruch,Kersten Stamm,Ekaterine Vashakmadze,Dana Vorisek,and Collette Wheeler.We are also thankful to Hayley Pallan,Cordula Rastogi,and Shu Yu for their contributions to annexes,boxes,and background literature reviews.We would like to thank Indermit Gill for his support of our work program on economic growth.We owe a debt of gratitude to colleagues who reviewed the preliminary drafts,provided detailed comments,discussed our findings,and patiently answered our many questions:Amat Adarov,Carlos Arteta,Dilek Aykut,Martin Bailey,Eduardo Borensztein,Natalie Chen,Ajai Chopra,Ibrahim Chowdhury,Kevin Chua,Kevin Clinton,Brahima Coulibaly,Kevin Cruz,Antonio Fatas,Erik Feyen,Poonam Gupta,Jakob de Haan,Graham Hacche,Thomas Helbling,Elena Ianchovichina,Ergys Islamaj,Bradley Jensen,Gerard Kambou,Jean Pierre Lacombe,Yusha Li,Dorsati Madani,Aaditya Mattoo,Valerie Mercer Blackman,Dennis Novy,Joseph Mawejje,Ugo Panizza,Zia Qureshi,David Robinson,Apurva Sanghi,Sudhir Shetty,Naotaka Sugawara,Jonathan Temple,Christopher Towe,and Garima Vasishtha.We also would like to thank the participants of many internal seminars and of the World Bank Group-wide review process of Global Economics Prospects reports for useful suggestions on the preliminary chapters,and numerous policy makers and researchers for conversations on topics covered here.We are deeply grateful to Kaltrina Temaj for shouldering the lions share of research assistance responsibilities.We are also thankful to Lule Bahtiri,Mattia Coppo,Hrisyana Stefanova Doytchinova,Jiayue Fan,Arika Kayastha,Maria Hazel Macadangdang,Rafaela Martinho Henriques,Muneeb Ahmad Naseem,Mohamad Nassar,Vasiliki Papagianni,Lorez Qehaja,Julia Roseman Norfleet,Juan Felipe Serrano Ariza,Shijie Shi,Yujia Yao,and Juncheng Zhou for excellent research support.We are indebted to our colleagues who worked on the production process,media relations,and dissemination.We truly appreciate the herculean efforts of Adriana Maximiliano in assembling the print publication and designing the cover,with assistance from Hazel Macadangdang.Graeme Littler produced the online publication and provided editorial support,with contributions from Adriana Maximiliano.Therese Reginaldo provided extensive logistical support.Joseph Rebello,Chisako Fukuda,Patricia Katayama,Jewel McFadden,Koichi Omori,and Nandita Roy managed media relations and dissemination.xxiv The production of this book was managed by the Prospects Group of the Development Economics Vice Presidency of the World Bank Group.The Prospects Group gratefully acknowledges financial support from the Policy and Human Resources Development(PHRD)Fund provided by the Government of Japan.xxv Elwyn Davies,Senior Economist,World Bank Sergiy Kasyanenko,Economist,World Bank Philip Kenworthy,Economist,World Bank Sinem Kilic Celik,Economist,International Monetary Fund M.Ayhan Kose,Director and Deputy Chief Economist,World Bank Gaurav Nayyar,Lead Economist,World Bank Franziska Ohnsorge,Manager,World Bank Hayley Pallan,Economist,World Bank Lucia Quaglietti,Economist,OECD Cordula Rastogi,Senior Economist,World Bank Franz Ulrich Ruch,Senior Economist,World Bank Kersten Stamm,Economist,World Bank Ekaterine Vashakmadze,Senior Economist,World Bank Dana Vorisek,Senior Economist,World Bank Collette Wheeler,Senior Economist,World Bank Shu Yu,Senior Economist,World Bank Authors and contributors xxvii Abbreviations AEs BK CF COVID-19 EAP ECA EMDEs EU FDI GCC GDP GEP GVC HICs HP ICRG ICT IMF LAC LICs MICs MNA MVF NDCs OECD PF PMI PPP R&D RHS RTA SAR SDGs advanced economies Baxter-King filter Christiano-Fitzgerald filter coronavirus disease 2019 East Asia and Pacific Europe and Central Asia emerging market and developing economies European Union foreign direct investment Gulf Cooperation Council gross domestic product Global Economic Prospects global value chain high-income countries Hodrick-Prescott filter International Country Risk Guide information and communications technology International Monetary Fund Latin America and the Caribbean low-income countries middle-income countries Middle East and North Africa multivariate filter nationally determined contributions Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development production function approach purchasing managers index purchasing power parity research and development right-hand side regional trade agreement South Asia Sustainable Development Goals xxviii SMEs SSA TFP UCM WDI WEO small and medium enterprises Sub-Saharan Africa total factor productivity Unobserved Components Model World Development Indicators World Economic Outlook Across the world,a structural growth slowdown is underway:at current trends,the global potential growth ratethe maximum rate at which an economy can grow without igniting inflationis expected to fall to a three-decade low over the remainder of the 2020s.Nearly all the forces that have powered growth and prosperity since the early 1990s have weakened,not solely because of a series of shocks to the global economy over the past three years.The growth rates of investment and total factor productivity are declining.The global labor force is agingand expanding more slowly.International trade growth is much weaker now than it was in the early 2000s.The slowdown could be even more pronounced if financial crises erupt in major economies and spread to other countries as these types of episodes often lead to lasting damage to potential growth.A persistent and broad-based decline in long-term growth prospects imperils the ability of emerging market and developing economies(EMDEs)to combat poverty,tackle climate change,and meet other key development objectives.These challenges call for an ambitious policy response at the national and global levels.The slowdown can be reversed by the end of the 2020sif all countries replicate some of their best policy efforts of recent decades and accompany them with a major investment push grounded in robust macroeconomic frameworks.Boosting human capital and labor force participation and making sound climate-related investments can also make a measurable difference in lifting growth prospects.Bold policy actions at the national level will need to be supported by increased cross-border cooperation and substantial financing from the global community.Slowing growth,dimming prospects In 2015,Kaushik Basu,the World Bank Groups Chief Economist at the time,asked us to assess long-term growth prospects of emerging market and developing economies(EMDEs).His request inspired us to prepare the study“Slowdown in Emerging Markets:Rough Patch or Prolonged Weakness?”1 The question in the title was a deliberate choice since the study documented a synchronous slowdown in these economies during 2010-15 but concluded that cyclical factors partly played a role and that policies could reverse the decline in growth.We now have a definitive answer to the question we posed in the title:These economies are in the midst of a prolonged period of weakness.Note:This chapter was prepared by M.Ayhan Kose and Franziska Ohnsorge.1 Our earlier study focused on both cyclical and structural drivers of the slowdown(Didier at al.2015).This study also acknowledges the importance of cyclical factors but focuses on structural drivers that have become more prominent in explaining the decline in growth.It is much more comprehensive than our earlier paper as it builds on,and expands,multiple studies we have conducted since then.Some of these were featured in the World Bank Groups flagship Global Economic Prospects report in which we examined different aspects of growth in EMDEs.OVERVIEW o.2OVERVIEW FALLING LONG-TERM GROWTH PROSPECTS This book argues that the weakness in growth will likely extend for the remainder of the 2020s.It could be even more pronounced if financial crises erupt in major economies and,especially,if they trigger a global recession.The experience of the past two decades has shown that financial crises and recessions cause lasting damage to growth;this would compound the weaknesses in the main drivers of growth that are already embedded in current trends.In addition,the necessary policy interventions could be delayed,as often happened during the past decade,such that global growth over the 2020s could disappoint once again.It will take a herculean collective policy effort to restore growth in the next decade to the average of the previous one.At the national level,this effort will require these economies to repeat their own best 10-year record in a wide range of policies.At the global level,given the cross-border nature of many challenges confronting growth,the policy response requires stronger cooperation,larger financing,and reenergized push for mobilization of private capital.Major shocks have battered the global economy over the past three years including the COVID-19 pandemic and the war in Ukraine.After countries had provided the necessary support for businesses and individuals hurt by the pandemic,cyclical policies turned contractionary.The steep rise in inflation over the past two years has led to the sharpest tightening of global monetary policy in four decades.Fiscal policy has also become less supportive following the significant deterioration of government budget balances during the 2020 global recession,when debt levels reached historical highs.Amid these multiple adverse shocks and limited policy space,the global economy experienced over the past three years the sharpest growth slowdown following a global recession.Even as policy makers confront these short-term challenges,a longer-term setback of considerable importance has been brewing quietly:a persistent decline in long-term growth prospects.In the past decade,growth in EMDEs and advanced economies alike has slowed sharply(table A.1).Global growth declined from a recent peak of 4.5 percent in 2010 to a projected low of 1.7 percent in 2023(figure o.1).The slowdown was widespread:in 80 percent of advanced economies and 75 percent of EMDEs,average annual growth was lower during 2011-21 than during 2000-10.The slowdown was pronounced in EMDEs.As a result,the pace at which the per capita incomes of these economies are catching up to those of advanced economies(so-called income convergence)has fallen:In 2011-21,EMDE per capita incomes grew 2.0 percentage points a year faster than advanced-economy per capita incomes.But that was considerably smaller than the differential of 3.4 percentage points a year during 2000-10.The convergence process was set back in all EMDE regions.Middle-income EMDEs(MICs)were somewhat harder hit than low-income countries(LICs).MIC per capitaincome growth slipped by 1.4 percentage points,from 4.9 percent in 2000-10 to 3.5percent in 2011-21(table A.2).LIC per capita income growth also slowed,by 1.2percentage points,to 1.7 percent in 2011-21 from 2.9 percent in 2000-10.OVERVIEW o.3 FALLING LONG-TERM GROWTH PROSPECTS FIGURE o.1 Growth Growth has slowed sharplyin aggregate and per capita terms and in the majority of countriesfrom its elevated rates in the early 2000s.The pace of per capita income convergence toward advanced economies has slowed in all EMDE regions.B.Per capita growth A.Growth Source:World Bank.Note:EMDEs=emerging market and developing economies.A.B.Projections for 2023-24.GDP-weighted averages(at 2010-19 average exchange rates and prices).C.Yellow horizontal line indicates 50 percent.D.EAP=East Asia and Pacific;ECA=Europe and Central Asia;LAC=Latin America and the Caribbean;MNA=Middle East and North Africa;SAR=South Asia;SSA=Sub-Saharan Africa.E.F.MICs=Middle-income countries;LICs=low-income countries.GDP-weighted averages(at 2010-19 average exchange rates and prices).Unbalanced sample of up to 105 MICs and 26 LICs.Projections for 2022-24 from the World Banks January 2023 Global Economic Prospects report.D.Annual average per capita income growth relative to advanced economies C.Share of countries with slower growth than in the previous decade F.Per capita growth relative to advanced economies E.Growth-6-30369199019921994199619982000200220042006200820102012201420162018202020222024WorldAdvanced economiesEMDEsPercent020406080100WorldAdvancedeconomiesEMDEs1990-99 average 2000-10 average2000-10 average 2010-21 averagePercent of countries-6-4-202468EAPECALACMNASARSSA2010-21 average1990-99 average2000-10 averagePercentage points024681990-992000-102011-212022-241990-992000-102011-212022-241990-992000-102011-212022-24EMDEsMICsLICsPercent0242000-102011-212022-242000-102011-212022-242000-102011-212022-24EMDEsMICsLICsPercentage points-6-30369199019921994199619982000200220042006200820102012201420162018202020222024WorldAdvanced economiesEMDEsPercento.4 OVERVIEW FALLING LONG-TERM GROWTH PROSPECTS The slowdown represents a deepening crisis of developmentbecause all the fundamental drivers of economic growth have faded(figure o.2).Ordinarily one of the most powerful drivers of economic growth,global trade in 2010-19 grew only as fast as overall economic growth,down from twice as fast during 1990-2011.Factor reallocation from less to more productive firms and sectors has also slowed.Gains from better education and health have faded as improvements in education and health care systems have leveled off.Continuing a decade of weakness prior to the pandemic,EMDE investment growth in 2022-24 is projected to average 3.5 percent per year,about half its 2000-21 average.2 After rising over the preceding decades,the growth of the working-age population relative to overall global population growth declined to a three-decade low in 2017.Global policy uncertainty has risen while attitudes towards trade integration have turned more cautious.On top of this fading growth momentum,a series of shocksincluding the pandemic and climate-related disastersover the past decade have done lasting damage to the development process.This has been reflected in stalling poverty reduction.Magnifying challenges Weaker long-term growth gives rise to a wide range of challenges.First,it slows the pace of poverty reduction.At projected growth rates,the goal of reducing global extreme poverty to 3 percent of the population by 2030 is now out of reach.Second,slower output growth tends to reduce the resources available to invest in solving problems confronting the global economy.Without sustained investment growth,it will be difficult,if not impossible,to address climate change and make material progress towards other development goals.Third,slower long-term output growth implies limited job creation and wage growth,which provides fertile ground for social tensions and is likely to entail slower transitions from informal to formal economic activity.Finally,weaker long-term output growth curtails the resources available to pay off mounting debt loads,potentially undermining debt sustainability and leading to financial stress.One tool to meet multiple policy priorities The intensifying development challenges the world faces are accompanied by a raft of sometimes competing policy priorities:eliminating extreme poverty,reducing inequality,achieving higher growth,or combating climate change.The good news is that addressing these priorities requires the same recipe:sustained and robust investment and productivity growth.Through this mechanism,policy makers can overcome these enormous challenges and deliver sustained,sustainable,and inclusive growth.Such efforts will need to be accompanied by measures to promote investment in human capital,foster gender equality,and strengthen social protection systems.2 Throughout this book,unless otherwise specified,investment refers to real gross fixed capital formation(public and private combined).OVERVIEW o.5 FALLING LONG-TERM GROWTH PROSPECTS FIGURE o.2 Drivers of output growth All the fundamental drivers of output growth slowed in the past decade.Improvements in human capital,the growth of the labor force,investment(including because of policy uncertainty)and total factor productivity(including through factor reallocation)all decelerated.These drivers of growth are expected to slow further in the remainder of the current decade.B.TFP growth A.Working-age population Sources:Baker,Bloom,and Davies(2016);Dieppe and Matsuoka(2019);United Nations Population Statistics;World Health Organization,Global Health Outlook;World Bank.Note:AEs=advanced economies;EMDEs=emerging market and developing economies;LICs=low-income countries.A.Population weighted averages.The working-age population is defined as people aged 15-64 years.B.GDP-weighted arithmetic average of total factor productivity growth.Includes 53 EMDEs and 29 advanced economies.B.-E.Arithmetic annual averages.C.GDP-weighted averages for the period indicated.D.Based on samples of 94 countries during 1995-1999 and 103 countries during 2003-2017.Median of country-specific productivity contributions.Within-sector growth shows the contribution of initial real value added-weighted productivity growth and between-sector growth shows the contribution from changes in the employment share.E.For healthy life expectancy(HALE)at birth,annual average change in population-weighted average for 179 countries between 2000 and 2010 and between 2011 and 2019.For lower secondary school completion rate(in percent of relevant age group),annual average change in world aggregate between 2000 and 2010 and between 2010 and 2019.F.Period averages.Global policy uncertainty is a GDP-weighted average of national Economic Policy Uncertainty indices for 21 countries:Australia,Brazil,Canada,Chile,China,Colombia,France,Germany,Greece,India,Ireland,Italy,Japan,Mexico,the Netherlands,Russia,South Korea,Spain,Sweden,the United Kingdom,and the United States(Baker,Bloom,and Davies 2016).D.Contributions to labor productivity growth C.Investment growth F.Global policy uncertainty E.Improvement in human capital indicators 0122000-102011-212022-302000-102011-212022-302000-102011-212022-30WorldAEsEMDEs2000-21 averagePercent0246810WorldAdvancedeconomiesEMDEsEMDEsexcludingChinaPercent2011-212000-100123451990s2003-082013-171990s2003-082013-171990s2003-082013-17AdvancedeconomiesEMDEsLICsWithin sectorBetween sectorPercentage points0.00.10.20.30.400.40.81.22000s2010s2000s2010sSecondary completionrateHealthy life expectancy(RHS)Percentage points of populationYears0501001502002000-102011-21Index5560657019811984198719901993199619992002200520082011201420172020202320262029AEsWorldEMDEsPercent of total populationo.6 OVERVIEW FALLING LONG-TERM GROWTH PROSPECTS Achieving this is not easy:policies that are effective in lifting long-term growth and investment are often difficult to design and even more difficult to implement.They tend to involve structural interventions that can sometimes impose substantial,asymmetric costs on parts of the society and therefore can face stiff resistance from vested interests.Some of these policies need to be accompanied by supportive measures to ensure inclusive growth.Moreover,the growth dividends of these policies often take time to accrue.Nonetheless,achieving strong and sustained growth is the only plausible path to durably address climate,poverty and a wide range of other development challenges.Understanding long-term growth:A framework The book frames long-term growth around the concept of potential growththe maximum growth rate that an economy can sustain in the long term at full employment and full capacity without igniting inflation.An economys potential GDP growth rate is effectively its speed limit.It influences the full spectrum of policies that determine economic and development outcomes:the level of benchmark interest rates,the scale of government spending,and even the expected size of returns to investors.The speed limit can be raisedthrough policies that expand the labor supply,boost productivity,and ramp up investment.Although the concept of potential growth has been much explored,it is not directly observable and must be inferred from other data.The book develops a variety of measures of potential growth and examines their evolution over time.It presents a detailed discussion of linkages between potential growth and its underlying drivers:capital accumulation(through investment growth),labor force growth,and the growth of total factor productivity(TFP),which is the part of economic growth that results from more efficient use of inputs and which is often the result of technological changes.The book also pays special attention to developments in the trade and services sectorsboth of which have been key contributors to productivity growth and changes in labor markets.Contributions to the literature There is a rich literature on policies to improve long-term growth prospects.3 This book makes three key contributions with its introduction of a new database of potential 3 Several studies have examined the links between growth and inequality(for example,Cerra et al.2021)or between short-term shocks and long-term output trends(for example,Cerra,Fatas,and Saxena 2020).Others have looked in depth at specific drivers of growth,such as innovation(Aghion,Akcigit,and Howitt 2015;Aghion,Antonin,and Bunel 2021;Aghion and Howitt 2005);institutions(Acemoglu 2012;Acemoglu,Johnson,and Robinson 2005);culture(Gorodnichenko and Roland 2011);political economy(Allen et al.2014;Acemoglu and Robinson 2012);trade(Rodrik 2017);finance(Arcand,Berkes,and Panizza 2015;Obstfeld 2009);digitalization(Brynjolfsson and McAfee 2014,2017);or human capital(Schady et al.2023).Some studies have examined growth prospects in different regions,such as Gill and Raiser(2012)for Europe;Ulku and Zaourak(2022)for Central America;Alvarez and de Gregorio(2014)for Latin America;and McMillan,Rodrik,and Sepulveda(2017)for seven country case studies in Africa,Asia,and Latin America.Others,such as Loayza and Pennings(2022),have developed tools to model long-term growth.Finally,a group of studies have examined firm-level drivers of growth prospects(for example,Comin and Mulani 2009;Fisman and Svensson 2007;and Goehuys and Veugelers 2012).OVERVIEW o.7 FALLING LONG-TERM GROWTH PROSPECTS 4 Previous studies have been confined to a single methodology,such as the production function approach(OECD 2014)or multivariate filters(ADB 2016;IMF 2015).Some earlier studies estimated trends for only a subset of measures of potential growth(for example,Chalaux and Guillemette 2019;Kilic Celik,Kose,and Ohnsorge 2020).The books focus on long-term potential growth projections also contrasts with the previous literature,which has examined past trends(Asian Development Bank 2016;Dabla-Norris et al.2015;IMF 2015;OECD 2014).5 Earlier work has estimated the effects of recessions on potential growth but they were primarily confined to OECD countries and to one specific measure of potential growth(Furceri and Mourougane 2012;Mourougane 2017).6 Previous studies have investigated the link between actual growth of output or productivity and structural reforms,focusing on the near-term benefits(Prati,Onorato,and Papageorgiou 2013),productivity effects(Adler et al.2017;Dabla-Norris,Ho,and Kyobe 2016),or a sample consisting of mostly advanced economies(Banerji et al.2017;IMF 2015,2016).growth,emphasis on global and region-specific growth trends and prospects,and the presentation of a rich menu of policies to deliver better growth outcomes.Comprehensive database of potential growth.The book introduces the first comprehensive database of the nine most commonly used estimates of potential output growth for the largest available country sample of up to 173 economies(37 advanced economies and 136 EMDEs)over 1981-2021(chapter 1).These estimates are based on multiple methodologies.The book also examines prospects for potential growth based on projections of its structural driversgrowth of physical and human capital,growth of labor supply,and growth of TFP.4 In addition,using the new database,it presents the first detailed analysis of the damage to potential growth from many adverse developments in EMDEsincluding recessions,banking crises,epidemics,and natural disasters(chapters 1 and 5).5 Regional aspects of potential growth and investment.This book is the first to examine EMDE regional trends and the prospects for the growth of potential output and investment since the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic.In dedicated chapters,the book also discusses regional policy priorities and options to strengthen investment and potential growth(chapter 2 and chapter 4).Its analysis draws on the specific literature and data for each of the six World Bank Group regions:East Asia and the Pacific(EAP),Europe and Central Asia(ECA),Latin America and the Caribbean(LAC),the Middle East and North Africa(MNA),South Asia(SAR),and Sub-Saharan Africa(SSA).Policies.The book explores,in a consistent framework,policy options to lift potential growth.In contrast to earlier studies,the discussion of policy options is directly based on empirical analysis.6 Some of these policies include reforms of education and healthcare systems as well as labor markets(chapter 5).The book also presents an extensive menu of policies to boost investment and productivity growth and examines policy interventions geared toward promoting growth in services activity and international trade.Investment as a key driver of potential growth.As noted above,investment is essential to deliver sustained potential output growth,improve living standards,and make progress in achieving the Sustainable Development Goals(SDGs)and fulfilling o.8 OVERVIEW FALLING LONG-TERM GROWTH PROSPECTS commitments made under the Paris Agreement on climate change.This book provides the first comprehensive analysis of investment growth in a large sample of EMDEs since the pandemic and Russias invasion of Ukraine.It examines the likely medium-and long-term consequences of the damage to investment in EMDEs from recent adverse shocks,focusing on the effects on productivity,potential output growth,trade,and the ability to achieve the SDGs and climate-related goals.It also describes a rich menu of policies to revive investment growth.Trade as a traditional engine of growth.Trade has been a powerful engine for EMDE growth over the past four decades but its role is now under threat.Te book presents a comprehensive analysis of trade costs and avenues to promote trade growth(chapter 6).It goes beyond previous research in assessing the role of trade policyincluding on tariffs and participation in trade agreementsin determining trade costs(Arvis et al.2016;Chen and Novy 2012;World Bank 2021).This analysis is complemented by an event study of the evolution of trade in goods and services around global recessions,including the pandemic-induced global recession of 2020.Building on the econometric analysis,the chapter derives policy options to lower trade costs.Services as a new engine of growth.High hopes have been placed on the services sector as a new engine of economic growth as traditional engines of growth such as goods trade and resource sectors sputter.7 This book establishes a set of stylized facts that summarize the role of the services sector in growth and development over the past three decades(chapter 7).It presents growth decompositions that provide estimates of the contributions of subsectors of services as well as the contributions of the growth of factor inputs versus TFP.The book also documents how the pandemic has affected prospects and policy priorities for services-led growth,building on some recent studies.It assesses future growth opportunities linked to the acceleration in digitalization,building on the literature on how the digital economy is expanding opportunities to boost productivity in the services sector.Key findings and policy messages Using a comprehensive database of multiple measures of potential growth,this book examines trends in potential growth and its drivers(especially investment),global and regional prospects for potential growth and investment over the 2020s,and a range of policy options to lift potential growth.It documents three major findings.First,there 7 Major shifts are underway in commodity markets as part of the energy transition,as discussed in Baffes and Nagle(2022).Recent work considers the potential of services as an engine of growth and trade(Nayyar,Hallward-Driemeier,and Davies 2021a,2021b;Park and Noland 2013;OECD 2005;Lee and McKibbin 2018)and trade(Baldwin 2016;Francois and Hoekman 2010).Some recent studies also consider the effects of the pandemic on growth and household income or firm sales distribution(Apedo-Amah et al.2020;Chetty et al.2020;Narayan et al.2022).The book expands on the growing literature on structural change and productivity growth in EMDEs,which highlights changes in the relative contributions of the broader manufacturing and services sectors,and demand-and supply-side factors(Fan,Peters,and Zilibotti 2021;Kinfemichael and Morshed 2019;McMillan and Rodrik 2011;Nayyar,Hallward-Driemeier,and Davies 2021a,2021b;Rodrik 2016).OVERVIEW o.9 FALLING LONG-TERM GROWTH PROSPECTS has been a protracted,broad-based decline in potential growth and its underlying drivers.Major adverse shocks also reduce potential growth by leaving a lasting impact on these drivers.Second,the slowdown in potential growth is expected to persist for the rest of this decade.Finally,while they are significant challenges confronting EMDEs,they are not insurmountable.It is possible to reverse the slowdown in potential growth and chart a sustained,sustainable,and inclusive growth path by implementing ambitious,broad-based and forceful policies at the national and global levels.Longstanding,widespread decline in potential growth All measures document a widespread decline in potential growth in the decade 2011-21,relative to the preceding decade(chapter 1).Global potential growth fell to 2.6 percent a year during 2011-21 from 3.5 percent a year during 2000-10;meanwhile,EMDE potential growth fell to 5.0 percent a year during 2011-21 from 6.0 percent a year during 2000-10(table A.3).The weakening of potential growth was highly synchronizous across countries:during 2011-21,potential growth was below its 2000-10 average in almost all advanced economies and nearly 60 percent of EMDEs.Among EMDE regions,the steepest slowdown occurred in MNA,followed by EAP,although potential growth in EAP remained higher than in all other EMDE regions except SAR,where potential growth remained broadly unchanged(chapter 2).This slowdown in potential growth can be attributed to many factors as all fundamental drivers of growth faded.The period between 2011 and 2021 was marked globally by slower TFP growth,slower labor supply growth,and slower investment growth than in the period 2000-10.In addition,the global economy has been rocked by financial crises,global recessions,bouts of inflation,health crises such as epidemics and a pandemic,climate-related disasters,and wars and conflict of varying severity.Almost all of these shocks,and especially the global recessions,left lasting legacies of damaged drivers of,and slower rates of,potential growth(figure o.3).Utilizing a series of econometric approaches,this book quantifies this damage.Recessions resulted in lasting damage to the productivity capacity of the global economy.National recessions were associated with 1.4 percentage point slower potential growth,on average,even five years later(chapter 1).Over the medium term,recessions tended to have a somewhat more severe impact than did other adverse eventssuch as banking crises,epidemics,or other natural disasters.The effect of recessions on potential growth operated through multiple channels.Four to five years after a typical recession,investment growth,employment growth,and TFP growth remained significantly lower than in“normal”yearsby 3.0 percentage points for investment,0.7 percentage point for employment,and 0.7 percentage point for TFP.Banking crises were associated with initially larger declines in potential growth than recessions,peaking at 1.8 percentage points after two years as a result of collapses in o.10 OVERVIEW FALLING LONG-TERM GROWTH PROSPECTS FIGURE o.3 Lasting damage to potential growth of recessions Potential growth fell during the global recessions of 2009 and 2020,reflecting declines in invest-ment growth,labor force growth,and TFP growth.The decline was particularly steep in the COVID-19-induced global recession of 2020,which was unusual also in the disproportionately large loss in services activity.B.Advanced economies:Potential growth A.World:Potential growth Source:World Bank.Note:EMDEs=emerging market and developing economies.In each panel,the horizontal axis shows years,with t representing the recession year.A.-C.“Average”is an unweighted average of seven potential growth measures(excluding forecasts).“Range”reflects the maximum and minimum.Figures show potential growth around t=2009 and t=2020.D.Figures show the contributions of growth in capital,TFP,and labor to potential growth around t=2009 and t=2020.E.F.Charts show the unweighted average level of real value added in services(blue)and manufacturing(red)in the years around the recession year t,indexed to 100 for the year preceding the recession.D.World:Contributions to potential growth C.EMDEs:Potential growth F.National recession in 2020 E.National recessions before 2020 -2-101234t-2t-1t=0t 1t 2t-2t-1t=0t 1t 22009 global recession2020 global recessionAverageRangePercent0246810t-2t-1t=0t 1t 2t-2t-1t=0t 1t 22009 global recession2020 global recessionAverageRangePercent0.00.51.01.52.0t-2t-1t=0t 1t 2t-2t-1t=0t 1t 22009 global recession2020 global recessionCapitalTFPLaborPercentage points9296100104t-2t-1t0t 1t 2ServicesManufacturingIndex,100=Pre-recession value added949698100102t-2t-1t0t 1t 2ServicesManufacturingIndex,100=Pre-recession value added-1012345t-2t-1t=0t 1t 2t-2t-1t=0t 1t 22009 global recession2020 global recessionAverageRangePercentOVERVIEW o.11 FALLING LONG-TERM GROWTH PROSPECTS investment.However,quick recoveries in investment generally followed,such that the damage to potential growth after five years was only 1.2 percentage pointsless than after recessions.In contrast to recessions,banking crises tended to be mainly associated with lasting productivity losses.Climate change has increased the frequency and severity of weather-related natural disasters.Over the past two decades,these natural disasters have caused a significant decline in potential growth(chapter 5).For example,over the medium-term,depending on the magnitude and speed of reconstruction efforts,damage to potential growth varied from nil to 10 percent three years after the disaster.Some countries,especially small states,have suffered much larger damage than is suggested by the average effecton average 5 percent of GDP per year.These losses did not occur in a predictable pattern.Instead,it was not uncommon for the damages from a single climate-related disaster to cost a substantial portion of a countrys GDP,or even multiples of GDP in extreme cases.A lost decade in the making?Weaker growth prospects The slowdown in potential growth during 2011-21 is projected to extend into the remainder of the current decade(figure o.4).Projections for its fundamental drivers suggest that global potential growth will slow further,by 0.4 percentage point a year from 2011-21,to an average of 2.2 percent a year in 2022-30,the slowest pace since 2000(chapter 5).About half of the slowdown is due to demographic factors from an aging population,including slowing growth in the working-age population and declining labor-force participation.EMDE potential growth is projected to slow by 1.0 percentage point a year to an average of 4.0 percent a year in 2022-30.The decline will be internationally widespread:Economies accounting for nearly 80 percent of global GDP,including most EMDEs,are projected to experience a slowdown in potential growth between 2011-21 and 2022-30.All traditional drivers of growth,including trade,are expected to weaken in the remainder of this decade.However,relatively healthier growth is expected in the services sector.Investment.The slowdown in investment during 2011-21 will likely extend into the remainder of the current decade because of the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic,Russias invasion of Ukraine,limited policy space,and tight financial conditions(figure o.5;chapter 3).In 2022-24,investment growth in EMDEs is projected to average 3.5 percent per year,about half its average annual growth during 2000-21(chapter 3).Projected investment growth through 2024 will be insufficient to return aggregate EMDE investment to its pre-pandemic trend from 2010-19(the period between the highly disruptive 2009 and 2020 global recessions).Annual average investment growth in 2022-30 is now forecast to be 0.3-1.8 percentage points lower,on average,than in 2011-21 in all regions except in LAC and SAR,where adverse shocks that depressed investment growth in the 2010s are not expected to recur.After a gradual decline over the past decade,foreign direct investment(FDI)will also likely remain weak over the remainder of the 2020s.o.12 OVERVIEW FALLING LONG-TERM GROWTH PROSPECTS FIGURE o.4 Potential growth A broad-based weakening of potential growth in the past decade is expected to continue in the remainder of the current decade.In part,this reflects a weakening of investment growth that has been reflected in downgrades to consensus forecasts.B.Potential growth A.Potential growth Source:Consensus Economics;Penn World Tables;World Bank.Note:AEs=advanced economies;EMDEs=emerging market and developing economies.EAP=East Asia and Pacific;ECA=Europe and Central Asia;LAC=Latin America and the Caribbean;MNA=Middle East and North Africa;SAR=South Asia;SSA=Sub-Saharan Africa.A.-E.Arithmetic annual averages.A.B.Based on production function approach.GDP-weighted averages for a sample of 29 advanced economies and 53 EMDEs.C.D.Based on production function approach.Sample includes 4 countries in EAP,9 in ECA,15 in LAC,7 in MNA,2 in SAR,and 13 in SSA.Data for 2022-30 are forecasts.E.Weighted averages by real annual fixed investment in constant U.S.dollars.Sample includes 8 EAP,12 ECA,19 LAC,9 MNA,3 SAR,and 19 SSA economies.F.Includes data for six economies in EAP(China,Indonesia,Malaysia,Philippines,Thailand,Vietnam),seven economies in ECA(Bulgaria,Croatia,Hungary,Poland,Romania,Russia,Ukraine),six economies in LAC(Argentina,Brazil,Chile,Colombia,Mexico,Peru)and one economy in SAR(India).Single-year missing data are interpolated.D.Contributions to potential growth C.Contributions to potential growth F.Five-year-ahead consensus forecasts of investment growth E.Investment growth,by region 3.64.04.44.85.25.61.82.02.22.42.62.82011-21Factor2022-302011-21Factor2022-30WorldEMDEs(RHS)PercentBaselineDemographic trendsOther factorsPercent02468102000-102011-212022-302000-102011-212022-302000-102011-212022-30EAPECALACTFPCapitalLaborPotential growthPercent024682000-102011-212022-302000-102011-212022-302000-102011-212022-30MNASARSSATFPCapitalLaborPotential growthPercent02468101214EAPECALACMNASARSSAPercent2011-212000-10246810121416201120122013201420152016201720182019202020212022EAPEAP excl.ChinaECALACSARPercent024682000-102011-212000-102011-212000-102011-21WorldAEsEMDEsPotential growthActual growth2000-21 potential growthPercentOVERVIEW o.13 FALLING LONG-TERM GROWTH PROSPECTS FIGURE o.5 Global trade and investment Global trade growth has slowed,in part due to growing use of restrictive trade measures.Foreign direct investment inflows to EMDEs have weakened since the early 2000s.The recovery in EMDE investment from the 2020 global recession is expected to be less robust than after the global recession of 2009.B.Policy interventions affecting trade A.Global trade Sources:Global Trade Alert(database);Haver Analytics;UNCTAD;World Bank.A.Trade defined as exports and imports of goods and nonfactor services.B.Data exclude late reports for the respective reporting years(the cut-off date is December 31 of each year).C.Investment-weighted average(at 2010-19 average exchange rates and prices),indexed to 100 in the year before the global recession.“0”indicates the year of the global recession(2009 or 2020).D.Last observation in 2021.D.Foreign direct investment in EMDEs C.EMDE investment 05001,0001,5002,0002,500201920202021LiberalizingRestrictiveAverage(liberalizing),2009-19Average(restrictive),2009-19Number of new policy measures80100120140160-2-10123452009 recession2020 recessionIndex,year t-1=100Year0123420052006200720082009201020112012201320142015201620172018201920202021Percent0100200300400500200020022004200620082010201220142016201820202022Growth2000-08 trend2000-14 trend2000-19 trendIndex,100=2000Trade.Global trade growth may weaken by another 0.4 percentage point per year,on average,during the remainder of the current decade compared with 2011-21,owing partly to slower global output growth and partly to the further waning of structural factors that supported rapid trade expansion in recent decades(chapter 6).Fragmentation of trade and investment networks loom large over trade prospects amid policies that favor suppliers from allied countries(friend-shoring)or nearby countries(near-shoring).The historical record also shows that persistently weak investment growth tends to be associated with slow trade growth.Services.A possible bright spot may be the services sectorprovided its productivity potential can be unlocked(chapter 7).In particular,the pandemic has ushered in a pronounced shift toward digitalization as firms moved many of their activities online.This promises productivity gains if it can be harnessed for better service delivery.Since the pandemic,there has also been a shift toward high-skilled offshorable service o.14 OVERVIEW FALLING LONG-TERM GROWTH PROSPECTS activities,such as digitally deliverable information and communications technologies(ICTs)and professional services.From technological innovations to the“roaring 2020s”?The implications of technological innovations for future growth prospects have been a subject of intense debate.Some claim that the global economy will enjoy a surge in economic growth in the coming decades,driven by improvements in productivity thanks to new technologies(Brynjolfsson and McAfee 2014).Others caution that future growth could stall,or even fall,because new technologies will likely have a declining marginal impact on productivity,and structural challenges associated with aging and sluggish growth of investment will adversely affect prospects(Gordon 2016).As the world gradually emerges from the pandemic-induced recession of 2020,it is tempting to look back to the 1918 Spanish flu and hope for a decade of rapid global growth reminiscent of the“Roaring Twenties”of that era because of recent technological innovations.Building on technological breakthroughs in earlier decades,North America and Europe enjoyed rapid modernization and strong economic growth in the 1920s.Automobiles replaced horse-drawn transportation and became ubiquitous as improvements in assembly lines cut costs.Newly built electrical grids paved the way for rapid industrial and household electrification.The economies of the United States,Japan,and some European countries became more productive.Global growth that averaged 3.6 percent in the 1920s was double that of the preceding two decades.There is no question about the potential of recent technological innovations in transforming our lives across the world,in many dimensions.However,in light of the trends of the past two decades and the persistent slowdown in the fundamental sources of growth,our analysis concludes that the 2020s are more likely to be“disappointing”than“roaring”for the global economy,unless a comprehensive set of policies are put in place.Trends are not destiny:Policies to boost potential growth It is possible to reverse the slowdown in potential growth through structural policy interventions.Structural policies associated with higher physical capital investment,improved human capital,and faster labor supply growth could raise potential growth by 0.7 percentage point a year in 2022-30both globally and in EMDEs.This would offset the 0.4 percentage point decline in global potential growth between 2011-21 and 2022-30 projected in the baseline scenario and most of the 1.0 percentage point slowdown projected for EMDEs(figure o.6).Global potential growth would rise to 2.9 percent per yearabove its 2011-21 average of 2.6 percent,but still well below its 2000-10 average of 3.5 percent;EMDE potential growth,at 4.7 percent per year would remain below its 2011-21 average of 5.0 percent but by a much-reduced margin.These policies need to be accompanied by robust policy frameworks involving fiscal,monetary,and financial sector policies.They also need to be supported by interventions by the global community.OVERVIEW o.15 FALLING LONG-TERM GROWTH PROSPECTS FIGURE o.6 Policy options Economic reforms comparable with past achievements,or a major investment boost to meet climate change-related goals,could lift potential growth.In EMDEs,there is room for services sector productivity improvements.Broad-based reforms to shipping and logistics as well as border procedures could lower the costs of goods trade.B.EMDEs potential growth in climate-related infrastructure investment scenarios A.Global potential growth under reform scenarios Sources:Nayyar,Hallward-Driemeier,and Davies(2021);Penn World Tables;World Bank.Note:AEs=advanced economies;EMDEs=emerging market and developing economies.EAP=East Asia and Pacific;ECA=Europe and Central Asia;LAC=Latin America and the Caribbean;MNA=Middle East and North Africa;SAR=South Asia;SSA=Sub-Saharan Africa.GDP-weighted averages.A.-C.Arithmetic annual averages.A.Scenarios assume a repeat,in each country,of each countrys best 10-year improvement.B.Climate-related investment boost assumes an increase in average annual investment over the course of 2022-30 of 2.3 percentage points of GDP in line with the average of 13 countries covered in World Bank Country Climate and Development Reports(Argentina,China,Egypt,Ghana,Iraq,Jordan,Kazakhstan,Morocco,Peru,Philippines,South Africa,Trkiye,and Vietnam).The regional differences are in line with Rozenberg and Fay(2019).Improvement in spending efficiency assumes that each EMDE moves up two quartiles in the distribution of spending efficiency.C.Sample for employment includes 35 advanced economies and 143 EMDEs,with data until 2019.Sample for output includes 31 advanced economies and 140 EMDEs,with data until 2020.D.Bars show the fraction of goods trade costs that would remain after policy improvements.Policy improvements assume that the average EMDE in the quartile of EMDEs with the poorest scores in the liner shipping connectivity index and logistics performance index improves to match the score of the average EMDE in the quartile of EMDEs with the best scores for the liner shipping connectivity index and logistics performance index.The comprehensive package assumes that all three scores are improved simultaneously.Data refer to 2018.Gray line indicates 1(that is,unchanged trade costs in 2018)among the sample of EMDEs scoring in the poorest quartile on these indicators.D.Reduction in overall trade costs associated with policy improvements C.Composition of output and employment 34562011-212022-30ImpactImprovement in spending efficiencyClimate-related investment boostBaselinePercent0204060801001991 2019 1990 2020 1991 2019 1990 2020EmploymentOutputEmploymentOutputAdvanced economiesEMDEsServicesAgricultureIndustryPercent0.00.20.40.60.81.0BetterlogisticsBetterborderBettershippingComprehensivereformFraction of trade costs012342011-212022-30Reform impactSocial benefit reformsLabor market reformsEducation and health improvementsInvestment surgeBaselinePercento.16 OVERVIEW FALLING LONG-TERM GROWTH PROSPECTS The book discusses measures to boost human capital,labor supply,and productivity,and explores in depth policies to promote investment,services,and trade.It also explains the importance of strong macroeconomic policy frameworks and the need for support from the global community.Investment.Policy makers in EMDEs can turn these challenges into opportunities by focusing on interventions that can boost investment.Given the enormous challenges associated with climate change,there is a well-defined need for an ambitious investment push.Climate change is expected to exacerbate extreme poverty by reducing agricultural output,increasing food prices,and worsening food and water insecurity in EMDEs,and increasing the disaster-related damages to the physical environment.As discussed above,climate-related disasters are becoming more common,and they weigh particularly heavily on vulnerable countries such as small states.They can also worsen government fiscal positions through lower tax receipts and lower productivity alongside increased spending on reconstruction and public services.Addressing gaps between current spending on infrastructure and the level needed to meet development goals can promote investment growth.Prioritizing investment in green infrastructure projects with high economic returns,and fostering the widespread adoption of environmentally sustainable technologies,can support higher growth levels in the long-run while contributing to climate change mitigation.Sound investments aligned with climate goals in key areassuch as transport and energy,climate-smart agriculture and manufacturing,and land and water systemscan all boost long-term growth,while also enhancing resilience to future natural disasters.Although green transitions need to be carefully managed,sustainable investmentsincluding by the private sectoroffer significant opportunities.Besides their broader benefits,green investments may represent an important engine for job creation as they tend to be labor intensive.Addressing climate change and other development challenges also requires structural reforms that encourage the mobilization of private capital and lower barriers of access for the private sector.In many EMDEs,governance and institutional reforms are necessary to improve and unify the often fragmented regulatory and institutional environment.Reforms that improve the business climate can stimulate private investment directly and amplify the positive effects of investment,such as less informality and more job creation.All of these policy interventions also help attract FDI.All EMDE regions need to invest more heavily in infrastructure(chapter 4).This may be to improve climate resilience,including to protect against floods,storms,and drought and dampen their impact,especially in small states(LAC,EAP)and heavily agriculture-reliant economies(SAR,SSA).It may be to improve chronically low levels of infrastructure development(SAR,SSA);accommodate rising levels of urbanization(EAP,LAC,SAR).Or it may be to support productivity in sectors that employ a large proportion of the population(for example,agriculture in SSA)or rebuild following conflict(ECA,MNA,SSA);or improve trade linkages(LAC,SAR).OVERVIEW o.17 FALLING LONG-TERM GROWTH PROSPECTS The investment needed to achieve climate and development goals exceed many governments ability to finance them.Hence,successfully leveraging private sector capital to boost investment requires a set of policies to balance the risks,costs,and returns of investment projects,and overcoming common obstacles to private investment,such as poor business conditions,insufficient project pipelines,and underdeveloped domestic capital markets.Labor supply and human capital.Policies can aim to raise the active share of the working-age population,in particular policies to“activate”discouraged workers or groups with historically low participation rates,such as women and younger or older workers.Globally,average female labor force participation in 2011-21,at 54 percent,was three-quarters that of men,which stood at 72 percent;the gap between male and female participation was even larger in EMDEs,at 25 percentage points.Similarly,in both EMDEs and advanced economies,the average participation rate of workers aged 55 years or older was about half that of 30-45-year-old workers,and labor force partici-pation among those aged 19-29 years was only four-fifths that of their 30-45 year olds.A set of reforms that gradually raises participation rates in each five-year age group from 55-59 years onwards and that raises female labor force participation rates by their best 10-year improvement on record could increase global potential growth rates by as much as 0.2 percentage point per year on average during 2022-30.Considerably greater boosts to potential growth,in excess of 1 percentage point per year,could be achieved in regions such as SAR and MNA if they raised female labor force participation from about half of the EMDE average to the EMDE average.Improvements to health and,especially,education could be one prong of such a set of reforms to boost labor force participation,since better-educated workers tend to be more firmly attached to labor markets.In addition,improvements in education and health outcomes on par with the best ten-year improvement on record could boost productivity and lift EMDE potential growth by an additional 0.1 percentage point per year,on average,for the remainder of this decade and more over the longer term,Trade.Trade has flagged over the past decade.A major effort to rekindle it could yield large growth dividends over the next one.The costs added to internationally traded goods remain high:on average,they are almost equivalent to a 100 percent tariff,roughly doubling the costs of internationally traded goods relative to domestic goods(chapter 6).The bulk of the costs is accounted for by transportation and logistics,non-tariff barriers,and policy-related standards and regulations;tariffs amount to only 5 percent of average goods trade costs.Trade costs for services tend to be even higher than for goods,largely reflecting regulatory restrictions.To reduce elevated trade costs in EMDEs,comprehensive reform packages are needed.Trade agreements can reduce trade costs and promote trade,especially if they lower non-tariff barriers as well as tariffs and generate momentum for further domestic reforms(Baldwin and Jaimovich 2010;Plummer 2007).However,even if the global environment is not conducive to progress in such agreements,countries can take action o.18 OVERVIEW FALLING LONG-TERM GROWTH PROSPECTS at home to rekindle trade.For example,they can streamline trade processes and customs clearance requirements;enhance domestic trade-supporting infrastructure;increase competition in domestic logistics and in retail and wholesale trade;reduce tariffs;lower the costs of compliance with standards and regulations;and reduce corruption.Empirical analysis suggests that reforms that lift an EMDE in the quartile of countries with the highest shipping and logistics costs to the quartile of those with the lowest costs could cut its trade costs in half.For maximum effect,such reforms need to be embedded in broader improvements such as in human capital and digital connectivity(Devarajan 2019;Okonjo-Iweala and Coulibaly 2019).Trade can also play a critical role in the climate transition(Devarajan et al.2022).It has the potential to promote the production of goods and services necessary for transitioning to low-carbon economies.In addition,trade delivers goods and services that are key to help countries recover from extreme weather events.However,evidence indicates that in some countries,entry into global value chains in manufacturing has been accompanied by greater carbon emissions,and that global value chains have contributed to greater waste and increased shipping(World Bank 2020).Shipping accounts for 7 percent of global carbon emissions and 15 percent of global emissions of sulfur and nitrogen(World Bank 2020).A number of policies can be implemented to reduce trade costs in a climate-friendly way.For example,policies can be designed to remove the current bias in many countries tariff schedules favoring carbon-intensive goods and eliminate restrictions on access to environmentally friendly goods and services(Brenton and Chemutai 2021;World Bank 2020).In addition,multilateral negotiations can focus not only on tariffs on environmental goods but also on nontariff measures and regulations affecting servicesaccess to which is often vital for implementing the new technologies embodied in environmentally friendly goods.Services.Policy interventions can also help countries unlock the potential of the services sector to drive economic growth(chapter 7).Supporting the diffusion of digital technologies in EMDEs remains central to deliver better growth outcomes.In this context,investing in ICT infrastructure,updating regulatory frameworks around data,and strengthening management capabilities and worker skills are important.Countries can promote the expansion of productive,high-skilled,offshorable services by enabling greater use of online communications and digital platforms,reducing barriers to services trade,and supporting training in relevant skills.Where education systems are weak,but reliable and widespread internet access exists,it would be possible to increase utilization of higher-quality online schooling and training.Digital technologies may expand access to finance in the poorest countries,enable more effective government service delivery,and accelerate the trend toward the automation of some routine occupations.In addition,regulatory reforms can support investment to revive low-skilled contact services,such as transportation,that employ large numbers of people.The prospect for services-led growth will also be influenced by climate-change considerations.The services sector can play an important role in climate mitigation and OVERVIEW o.19 FALLING LONG-TERM GROWTH PROSPECTS adaptation.For instance,financial services can play a fundamental role in mobilizing the resources needed for necessary investments(Grippa,Schmittmann,and Suntheim 2019).Similarly,engineering and environmental consulting services will likely be central to enabling energy-efficiency improvements(World Economic Forum 2022).Macroeconomic policies.Robust macroeconomic policy frameworks play an important role in boosting long-term growth prospects.They can help pro-actively smooth business cycles to avoid the disruptions and distortions associated with adverse shocks.They can ensure that social protection systems are geared toward minimizing long-term damage from such shocks.In addition,they can instill confidence in sound policy making and buttress the credibility of institutions.Robust fiscal and monetary policy frameworks are founded on transparent and rules-based approaches.Fiscal rules and medium-term budget frameworks can help countries maintain sustainable finances and accumulate reserves when the economy is doing well.These types of disciplined fiscal policy frameworks are especially critical nowadays to support growth prospects amid elevated debt levels and tight global financial conditions.In a deficit-neutral manner,they can guide government spending toward policies with long-term growth benefits,such as in health,education,or transport,or expand revenue bases to increase financing for such priority policies.Better fiscal frameworks also assist monetary policy by restraining procyclical spending that could contribute to demand pressures.A transparent and independent central bank will be better placed to maintain price stability,thereby helping to create a macroeconomic environment that is conducive to strong growth.In particular,by establishing an environment of low and stable inflation over the medium term,and thus fostering confidence in macroeconomic stability,central banks can support private investment growth(World Bank 2022).Strong monetary policy frameworks are currently particularly important to overcome inflation and stabilize inflation expectations.Monetary policy can also play a countercyclical role through its management of interest rates and credit growth,thereby supporting investment growth when activity is weak and inflation is low but helping to contain investment when the economy is overheating.8 To avoid boom-bust cycles that do lasting damage to investment and potential growth,proactive financial-sector supervision and regulation can mitigate risksespecially in countries with financial markets that are developing rapidly and becoming more integrated globally.In EMDEs without a prudential authority or prudential powers,creating or empowering these institutions is a priority.In EMDEs with the appropriate institutions,flexible and well-targeted tools are needed to manage balance-sheet mismatches,foreign-currency and capital-flow-related risk,and asset-price misalignment with economic fundamentals.8 Fiscal challenges combined with weak growth prospects complicate monetary policy when inflation is high(Ha,Kose,and Ohnsorge 2022)and increase the risk of recession(Guenette,Kose,and Sugawara 2022).o.20 OVERVIEW FALLING LONG-TERM GROWTH PROSPECTS Global cooperation.Since many of the challenges faced by EMDEs transcend national borders,it is essential to strengthen global cooperation to address them.The increasing frequency and severity of climate-related disasters in recent years highlight the escalating costs of climate change:the global community must therefore work together to accelerate progress toward meeting the goals of the Paris Agreement.In addition,there is a pressing need to reduce the economic,health,and social costs of climate change,many of which are borne disproportionately by vulnerable populations in EMDEs,particularly in LICs.More pressingly,the global community can help to expand the financing and capacity-building needed to promote growth in EMDEsincluding by scaling up climate-change adaptation,increasing green investments,and facilitating a green-energy transition(Bhattachariya,Kharas,and Walker 2023).The increase in investment spending needed to achieve the SDGs(relative to GDP)will be much larger for LICs than for the average EMDE.That implies that substantial additional financing from the global community and the private sector will be needed to close investment gaps.For some LICs that are already inor at high risk ofdebt distress,such financing may need to be accompanied by debt relief to allow them to steer spending toward development goals instead of debt service.Synopsis The book features three interconnected parts.Part I analyzes the evolution of global and regional potential growth using a new comprehensive database.Part II focuses on global and regional investment dynamics and policies to promote investment growth.Part III presents a detailed analysis of prospects for potential growth and policy measures that can lift it.It turns to the roles of services and trade as engines of long-term economic growth.The book presents a wide menu of policy options for improving growth prospects in each chapter.The remainder of this introduction presents a summary of each chapter.After presenting the motivation of the chapter,each summary explains the main questions,contributions to the literature,and analytical findings.After these summaries,a brief discussion of future research directions is presented.Part I.Potential Growth:An Economys Speed Limit In Part I of this volume,chapter 1 explores the conceptual framework and measurement of potential growth.Based on a new database introduced in this chapter,it describes the slowdown in potential growth in the past decade and its sources.Chapter 2 delves deeper into regional differences in the evolution of potential growth,describes regional prospects,and offers region-specific policy options.Chapter 1.Potential Not Realized:An International Database of Potential Growth In this chapter,Kilic Celik,Kose,Ohnsorge,and Ruch introduce the most comprehensive database of potential growth estimates available to date.Potential growth OVERVIEW o.21 FALLING LONG-TERM GROWTH PROSPECTS is critical to achieve poverty reduction;raise the resources needed to invest in solving global challenges;generate job creation and wage growth,especially in the formal sector;and achieve or sustain debt sustainability.9 Based on an extensive analysis of the earlier literature,they present three main approaches to estimating potential output growtheach of which has its advantages and disadvantages.Production function approach.The first approach measures potential growth based on production function estimates.This makes it possible to study the contributions of what theory suggests are the fundamental drivers of growththe growth of inputs of the factors of production(labor and capital)and technological progressbut involve assumptions that may be viewed as restrictive.Time-series methods.The second approach obtains measures of potential growth from statistical filters that generate smoothed versions of the actual output growth data as measures of potential output.This may provide the most consistency between estimates of potential growth and output gaps,on the one hand,and indicators of domestic demand pressures,on the other.However,it provides no links between estimated potential growth and its plausible fundamental drivers.Long-term growth expectations.A third approach uses long-term(say five years ahead)forecasts of output growth from economic analysts,which may be assumed to incorporate the forecasters judgments about potential growth but whose drivers are highly uncertain.Chapter 1 introduces the most comprehensive international database for the nine most common measures of potential growth based on these three approaches.This database and the analysis in this chapter serve as the foundation for chapter 2 and chapter 5which examine past and prospective potential growth globally,by country group,and by region,and policies that can be implemented to improve it.Specifically,this chapter addresses the following questions.How has global potential growth evolved in the past three decades?How have recessions and other adverse events affected potential growth?Through which channels have such events affected potential growth?Contributions.Chapter 1 makes the following contributions to the literature.First,it introduces the first comprehensive database for the nine most commonly used measures of potential growth for the largest available country sample of up to 173 economies(37 advanced economies and 136 EMDEs)over 1981-2021.One of the nine measures is 9 Ohnsorge and Yu(2022)present a broader discussion of the challenges in shifting informal activity into the formal economy.For a discussion of the challenges of low growth for debt sustainability,see Kose,Ohnsorge,and Sugawara(2022),and of government debt reduction,see Kose et al.(2022).o.22 OVERVIEW FALLING LONG-TERM GROWTH PROSPECTS based on the production function approach;five are based on the application of univariate time-series filters(Hodrick-Prescott,Baxter-King,Christiano-Fitzgerald,Butterworth,and Unobserved Components filters);one applies a multivariate Kalman filter;and two are based on analysts long-term growth forecasts.10 By including a measure that builds potential growth from its fundamental drivers,the database allows later chapters to examine the role of policy initiatives such as an investment push to address climate change.Previous studies have limited themselves to a single method of measuring potential growth,such as the production function approach(OECD 2014)or multivariate filters(ADB 2016;IMF 2015).The database updates an earlier vers

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F-1/A 1 useef1a.htm As filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission on March 23,2023.UNITED STATESSECURITIES AND EXCHANGE COMMISSIONWashington,D.C.20549 FORM F-1REGISTRATION STATEMENTUNDERTHE SECURITIES ACT OF 1933 USEE ELECTRONIC COMMERCE LTD(Exact name of Registrant as specified in its charter)United Kingdom 5960 Not Applicable(State or other jurisdiction of(Primary Standard Industrial(I.R.S.Employerincorporation or organization)Classification Code Number)Identification Number)FLOOR 1 OFFICE 25,22 MARKET SQUARELONDON,E14 6BU,ENGLANDUSEE ELECTRONIC COMMERCE LTDTel: 44 07514685567(Address,including zip code,and telephone number,including area code,of Registrants principal executive offices)F15,Fudan Science Park Building,No.11 Guotai RoadYangpu District,ShanghaiShanghai Jinzhun Investment Management Co.,Ltd(Name,address of agent for service)Copies to:Approximate date of commencement of proposed sale to the public:As soon as practicable after the effective date of this Registration Statement.If any of the securities being registered on this Form are to be offered on a delayed or continuous basis pursuant to Rule 415 under the SecuritiesAct of 1933,check the following box.If this Form is filed to register additional securities for an offering pursuant to Rule 462(b)under the Securities Act,please check the followingbox and list the Securities Act registration statement number of the earlier effective registration statement for the same offering.If this Form is a post-effective amendment filed pursuant to Rule 462(c)under the Securities Act,check the following box and list the SecuritiesAct registration statement number of the earlier effective registration statement for the same offering.If this Form is a post-effective amendment filed pursuant to Rule 462(d)under the Securities Act,check the following box and list the SecuritiesAct registration statement number of the earlier effective registration statement for the same offering.Indicate by check mark whether the registrant is an emerging growth company as defined in Rule 405 of the Securities Act of 1933.Emerginggrowth company xIf an emerging growth company that prepares its financial statements in accordance with U.S.GAAP,indicate by check mark if the registrant haselected not to use the extended transition period for complying with any new or revised financial accounting standards provided pursuant toSection 7(a)(2)(B)of the Securities Act.xThe Registrant hereby amends this registration statement on such date or dates as may be necessary to delay its effective date until the Registrantshall file a further amendment which specifically states that this registration statement shall thereafter become effective in accordance with Section8(a)of the Securities Act,as amended,or until the registration statement shall become effective on such date as the Securities and ExchangeCommission,acting pursuant to said Section 8(a)may determine.As filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission on March 23,2023.PRELIMINARY PROSPECTUSORDINARY SHARES We are offering ordinary shares.This is the initial public offering of ordinary shares of .The offering priceof our ordinary shares in this offering is expected to be$6.66 per share.Prior to this offering,there has been no public market for our ordinaryshares.We have applied to list our ordinary shares on the Nasdaq Capital Market under the symbol“USEE”.There is no assurance that such applicationwill be approved,and if our application is not approved,this offering may not be completed.Investing in our ordinary shares involves a high degree of risk.Before buying any shares,you should carefully read the discussion ofmaterial risks of investing in our ordinary shares in“Risk Factors”.We are an“emerging growth company”as defined under the federal securities laws and,as such,will be subject to reduced public companyreporting requirements.See“Prospectus SummaryImplications of Being an Emerging Growth Company”for additional information.Neither the Securities and Exchange Commission nor any other regulatory body has approved or disapproved of these securities orpassed upon the accuracy or adequacy of this prospectus.Any representation to the contrary is a criminal offense.We are a holding company incorporated in the United Kingdom.As a holding company with no material operations of our own,we conduct asubstantial majority of our operations through our operating entities established in the Peoples Republic of China(or the“PRC”).The OrdinaryShares offered in this prospectus are shares of the United Kingdom holding company.Holders of our Class A Ordinary Shares do not directly ownany equity interests in our Chinese operating subsidiaries,but will instead own shares of a United Kingdom holding company.The Chineseregulatory authorities could disallow our corporate structure,which would likely result in a material change in our operations and/or a materialchange in the value of our Ordinary Shares,including that it could cause the value of our Ordinary Shares to significantly decline or becomeworthless.Unless otherwise stated,as used in this prospectus and in the context of describing our operations and consolidated financialinformation,“we,”“us,”“Company,”or“our,”refers to USEE ELECTRONIC COMMERCE LTD,a United Kingdom holding company.For adescription of our corporate structure,see“Corporate History and Structure.”See also“Risk Factors Risks Relating to Our Corporate Structure.”2 As filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission on March 23,2023.We face various legal and operational risks and uncertainties relating to our operations in China.These risks,together with uncertainties in Chinaslegal system and the interpretation and enforcement of Chinese laws,regulations,and policies,could hinder our ability to offer or continue to offerour securities,result in a material adverse effect on our business operations,and damage our reputation,which could cause our shares tosignificantly decline in value or become worthless.The Chinese government may intervene or influence the operations of our company at any timeand may exert more control over offerings conducted overseas and/or foreign investment in China-based issuers,which could result in a materialchange in the operations of our company and/or the value of our common stock.Any actions by the Chinese government to exert more oversightand control over offerings that are conducted overseas and/or foreign investment in China-based issuers could significantly limit or completelyhinder our ability to offer or continue to offer securities to investors and cause the value of such securities to significantly decline or be worthless.Recently,the PRC government adopted a series of laws,regulatory measures and issued statements to regulate business operations in China,including cracking down on illegal activities in the securities market,adopting new measures to extend the scope of cybersecurity reviews,andexpanding the efforts in anti-monopoly enforcement.The Cyberspace Administration of China(“CAC”)has opened cybersecurity probes intoseveral U.S.-listed technology companies focusing on anti-monopoly regulation,and how companies collect,store,process and transfer data,among other things.If we are subject to such a probe or are required to comply with the stringent requirements of the new regulations,our abilityto conduct our business or list on a U.S.stock exchange may be restricted.As of the date of this prospectus,we and our subsidiaries have not beeninvolved in any investigations on cybersecurity review initiated by any Chinese regulatory authority,nor has any of them received any inquiry,notice or sanction.There are currently no relevant laws or regulations in China that prohibit companies whose subsidiaries or entity interests arewithin China from listing on overseas stock exchanges.However,since these statements and regulatory actions are newly published,officialguidance and related implementation rules have not been issued.It is highly uncertain what the potential impact such modified or new policies andregulations will have on our daily business operation,the ability to accept foreign investments and our ability to continue trading on a U.S.securities marketplace or stock exchange.PER SHARETOTALInitial public offering price$Underwriting discounts and commissions(1)$Proceeds,before expenses,to us$(1)Does not include accountable and non-accountable expense allowance payable to underwriters.Please see the section of this prospectusentitled“Underwriting”for additional information regarding underwriter compensation.We expect our total cash expenses for this offering(including cash expenses payable to our underwriters for their out-of-pocket expenses)to beapproximately$,exclusive of the above commissions.In addition,we will pay additional items of value in connection with this offering thatare viewed by the Financial Industry Regulatory Authority,or FINRA,as underwriting compensation.These payments will further reduceproceeds available to us before expenses.See“Underwriting.”Neither we nor any of the underwriters have authorized anyone to provide any information or to make any representations other than thosecontained in this prospectus or in any free writing prospectuses we have prepared.Neither we nor any of the underwriters take responsibility for,and can provide no assurance as to the reliability of,any other information that others may give you.This prospectus is an offer to sell only theshares offered hereby,but only under circumstances and in jurisdictions where it is lawful to do so.The information contained in this prospectusis current only as of its date,regardless of the time of delivery of this prospectus or of any sale of our common stock.For investors outside the United States:Neither we nor any of the underwriters have done anything that would permit this offering or possessionor distribution of this prospectus in any jurisdiction where action for that purpose is required,other than in the United States.Persons outside theUnited States who come into possession of this prospectus must inform themselves about,and observe any restrictions relating to,the offering ofthe shares of our common stock and the distribution of this prospectus outside the United States.Neither the Securities and Exchange Commission nor any state securities commission nor any other regulatory body has approved or disapprovedof these securities or determined if this prospectus is truthful or complete.Any representation to the contrary is a criminal offense.3 As filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission on March 23,2023.TABLE OF CONTENTS PagePROSPECTUS SUMMARY5OFFERINGS12RISK FACTORS13SPECIAL NOTE REGARDING FORWARD-LOOKING STATEMENTS29USE OF PROCEEDS31DIVIDEND POLICY32CAPITALIZATION33DILUTION34CORPORATE HISTORY AND STRUCTURE35MANAGEMENTS DISCUSSION AND ANALYSIS OF FINANCIAL CONDITION AND RESULTS OF OPERATIONS36BUSINESS39MANAGEMENT50PRINCIPAL SHAREHOLDERS56DESCRIPTION OF SHARE CAPITAL57SHARES ELIGIBLE FOR FUTURE SALE62TAXATION64UNDERWRITING67WHERE YOU CAN FIND ADDITIONAL INFORMATION69 4 As filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission on March 23,2023.PROSPECTUS SUMMARY The following summary is qualified in its entirety by,and should be read in conjunction with,the more detailed information and financialstatements appearing elsewhere in this prospectus.In addition to this summary,we urge you to read the entire prospectus carefully,especially therisks of investing in our Ordinary Shares discussed under“Risk Factors”before deciding whether to buy our Ordinary Shares.Our MissionOur mission is to provide entrepreneurs with new consumption scenarios and light entrepreneurship platforms through the offline USEE luxurycollection store chain system,using the digital operation model of the e-commerce platform to link the entity,and at the same time allowconsumers to obtain a convenient and preferential shopping experience.Overview of Our CompanyUSEE ELECTRONIC COMMERCE LTD is a one-stop industry and finance incubation and operation service provider integrating Internettechnology,e-commerce operation,big data,SRM digital supply chain,brand management and other businesses.The companys business scope includes:Internet sales(except for the sale of goods that require licensing);Sales agents;luggage sales;luggagerepair services;wholesale of jewelry;Jewelry retail;Jewelry recycling and repair services;sales of clocks and chronograph instruments;electronicproduct sales;wholesale of cosmetics;cosmetics retail;Art(art)art and collection appraisal services;Wholesale of computer software andhardware and auxiliary equipment;Retail of computer hardware and software and auxiliary equipment;sales of arts and crafts and ceremonialarticles(except ivory and its products);Retail sale of arts and crafts and collectibles(except ivory and its products);clothing wholesale;clothingretail;wholesale of shoes and hats;footwear and hat retail;sales of household appliances;Information consulting services(excluding licensinginformation consulting services);Advertising design,agency;Import and export agent;Domestic trade agent;conference and exhibition services;Organize cultural and artistic exchange activities;New energy vehicle sales;Auto parts retail,etc.USEE ELECTRONIC COMMERCE LTD promote the real economy through Internet e-commerce to create green consumption scenarios andindustrial foundations in the digital economy era,and activate related industries such as consumption and services.USEE ELECTRONIC COMMERCE LTD always integrate its own development into the exhibition of digital economy,improve the capacitybuilding of digital industrialization,promote the real economy with e-commerce,build a commercial chain value-added ecology around theconsumption side,channel end and brand side,take the promotion of consumption as the key element to activate the real economy,and build aone-stop industry and finance incubation operation service platform.The Industry1.Description of the industry chainUpstream:Product supplyUSEE ELECTRONIC COMMERCE LTD relying on the capital support of the capital market and the policy opportunities of the times in thedomestic and foreign supply chain markets,relying on the industrial advantages,resource advantages and the companys own talents,technicaladvantages,efficient and flexible capital advantages,we actively integrate the supply chain industrial cluster.Midstream:product communication,product tradingUSEE ELECTRONIC COMMERCE LTD takes the operation model of e-commerce joint entity and industrial integration finance,takes lightluxury head brand goods as the entry point to create a consumption ecology,drives the layout of offline stores by online drainage,and promotesthe industrial ecology with consumption ecology.Downstream:Consumption monetizationUSEE ELECTRONIC COMMERCE LTD takes light luxury brand goods as the starting point,while providing consumers with high-quality andhigh-quality products,it creates a consumption ecology with green consumption points,creates green consumption scenarios and industrialfoundation in the digital economy era through the model of promoting the development of real industries through online green consumption,drives the common development of related industries,builds a consumer entrepreneurship platform for consumers,entrepreneurs,enterprises,etc.,and realizes a new system of consumer entrepreneurship.5 As filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission on March 23,2023.2.Industry pain pointsLuxury/light luxury e-commerce pain pointsThe authenticity of light luxury/luxury goods has always been a major pain point in the light luxury/luxury e-commerce industry.In addition,iflight luxury/luxury goods companies cannot obtain brand agency rights or stable supply sources,it is difficult to show the special competitiveadvantage of online channels.On the other hand,e-commerce platforms often attract consumers through large promotions and discounts,but inthe field of luxury e-commerce,due to the limitation of supply sources,the profit margin of luxury e-commerce will be very limited,which makesit difficult for luxury e-commerce to obtain price advantages in the market.Pain points in the e-commerce industryThe high cost of recruiting new people is the biggest pain point in the current e-commerce industry.Coupled with the lack of social marketingskills and ineffective fan interaction faced by enterprises in the transformation,etc.,it also greatly affects the transaction conversion rate,andmany e-commerce merchants do not have a standardized operation,collection,and analysis process for their own data,which directly leads to theserious problem of helplessness in the face of the big data obtained.At the same time,for consumer groups,it has shifted from material consumption to spiritual consumption and entrepreneurial consumption,andtraditional e-commerce can no longer meet the needs of consumer groups.Physical store pain pointsAt present,the rapid development of e-commerce and the rapid expansion of supermarket chains have made offline stores face more and morepressure!In addition,competition from the same industry,the squeeze of online platforms,etc.,under the influence of these factors,manymerchants have chosen to close stores to cope with these challenges.Pain points of real enterprisesIn the past two years,the economic situation has declined due to the impact of the epidemic,and consumers have become increasingly rational andmature.Many entrepreneurs generally have problems such as difficult to sell,large accumulation of inventory,and high inventory pressure.Seeingthe mountains of goods,I frown every day,and thinking about how to sell goods quickly has become an urgent pain point for every entrepreneur.Our Services1.Project operation mode:Our project is to use the application developed by our company as a platform to integrate and integrate the needs of service providers,consumersand entrepreneurs to achieve the purpose of business incubation and consumption monetization,and form a consumption ecology that drives thereal economy through online drainage.At the same time,the needs of online platforms will be dataized,value-oriented and capitalized,andindustrial integration in the real economy will be driven.Our projects are not limited to a single luxury category,in the future,we will integratenew energy,tourism,live streaming and other industries to form a situation of industrial sharing.2.Mainly serve the populationConsumerConsumers are positioned as the new elite of the city and high-net-worth people with certain requirements for quality of life.EntrepreneursCreate innovative consumption and entrepreneurship application scenarios to meet the needs of entrepreneurs in consumption entrepreneurship.Merchant/EnterpriseDe-inventory for merchants/enterprises,reduce costs and increase efficiency,and realize digital transformatio.6 As filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission on March 23,2023.Our SolutionConsumerThrough the e-commerce application of USEE ELECTRONIC COMMERCE LTD,we provide consumers with high-quality and low-cost goods,cooperate with supply chains,brands,merchants,and enterprises to create a super SRM digital supply chain,provide sellers with traceable high-quality products,and solve consumers worries about counterfeit goods and no after-sales worries;At the same time,green points are used in theprocess of consumption and circulation,so that consumers can obtain a convenient and preferential shopping experience while realizing therecirculation of consumption value;Meet consumers need to save money.EntrepreneursTaking the mass consumption entrepreneurial demand as the core,combined with industrial points to promote new consumption,through theonline platform to promote the real economy model to create a new form of consumption entrepreneurship,to provide entrepreneurs with newconsumption scenarios and light entrepreneurship platform,entrepreneurs can purchase the products of the mall can convert green points intoindustrial points,industrial points are used to invest in the real industry under USEE ELECTRONIC COMMERCE LTD,solve the problem oftraditional entrepreneurs investing heavily in entities,and meet the consumption of entrepreneurs=The need for entrepreneurship.Merchant/EnterpriseThrough consumption points,traffic certainty and marketing campaign certainty,merchants/enterprises focusing on manufacturing and R&D,through short and fast marketing rhythm and low marketing costs,can serve more consumers through USEE ELECTRONIC COMMERCE LTDse-commerce and physical stores,so as to make good products known to more consumers,and solve the problems of difficult sales,high inventory,and no channels.Light luxury/luxury e-commerce industryThe past of the era of traditional e-commerce dividends,the marketing model of traditional e-commerce is gradually difficult to adapt to the needsof the new era,and it is difficult to establish customer trust,the customers sense of experience is getting worse and worse,the core concept ofUSEE ELECTRONIC COMMERCE LTD is to allow all participants to enjoy the value brought by consumption,traditional e-commerce onlymeets material consumption,content e-commerce only meets social,material consumption and spiritual consumption,and USEE ElectronicCommerce The emergence of LTD has changed the development process of e-commerce,in addition to meeting the above,it also meets the needsof users to save money and start a business.Why choose usConsumers save moneyWith its own SRM digital supply chain,it forms a unique competitive product supply channel,providing consumers with high-quality goods athigh prices,and gradually returning them to consumers in the form of consumption points.Entrepreneurs make moneyUSEE ELECTRONIC COMMERCE LTD provides an industrial ecological light entrepreneurship platform,entrepreneurs can use industry creditsto participate in other industries in the industrial ecosystem,such as physical stores,liquor,new energy charging piles,etc.Businesses are more economicalThe development and change from consumer e-commerce to industrial e-commerce reflects that the growth space of the digital economy iscontinuously expanding.Industrial e-commerce is also an important means to reduce the cost of enterprises,when reducing the idle inventory ofenterprises,with the help of upstream and downstream advantages of the industrial chain,accurately grasp the upstream supply capacity anddownstream generation demand,but also improve the demand management ability of enterprises.Our business model1.E-commerce platform business modelUSEE ELECTRONIC COMMERCE LTD e-commerce platform adopts the F2B2b2C model,and the biggest difference from traditional e-commerce is that the F2B2b2C model has four operating entities:brand owners(F2C),platform vendors(F2S),distributors(B2C),retailers(B2C).Based on the channel organization that the enterprise has established,through the brand session,brand session and other meeting formsand offline store membership system into an organized and organized connection to the C-end and connect users.7 As filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission on March 23,2023.2.Offline physical store business modelSelf-operated modelUSEE ELECTRONIC COMMERCE LTD invested and operated brand flagship store,by the supply chain brand/merchant/enterprise directlyprovide product display,consumers offline close understanding of the product,at the same time complete online order,by supply chainbrand/merchant/enterprise direct delivery.Joint venture modelThe joint operation stores funded by USEE ELECTRONIC COMMERCE LTD and established by entrepreneurs in the form of industry points partial investment are divided into image stores,brand stores,and MINI stores according to different areas,and the company provides agencyoperation and hosting services.The product display is directly provided by the supply chain brand/merchant/enterprise,and consumers have aclose understanding of the product offline,and at the same time complete the order online,and the supply chain brand/merchant/enterprisedelivers the goods.Entrepreneurs participate in dividends according to the amount of capital contributed and the number of industrial points.Franchise modelThe franchisees self-operated store established by the franchisee in the form of industry points part of the franchise fee is directly provided bythe supply chain brand/merchant/enterprise to display the product,and the consumer has a close understanding of the product offline,and at thesame time completes the order online,which is shipped by the supply chain brand/merchant/enterprise.USEE ELECTRONIC COMMERCE LTDprovides brand authorization,drainage and management background services,charging a 5%management fee,and franchisees are responsible fortheir own profits and losses.Our Competitive StrengthsWe are committed to integrating the needs of entrepreneurs,consumers and companies or enterprises to save the consumption costs of differentusers and directly address the pain points of different users.In addition,we also provide different promotion methods.1.Consumption returns double pointsSet a certain time condition,after the consumer meets the conditions,the amount of consumption will be returned to the consumer in the form ofconsumption points,so that every cent of money spent is on the way back,and consumption points can also be used for consumption on e-commerce platforms.2.Sharing accelerationIt is mainly based on the interactive communication and dissemination of people invited by people,so that old consumers can promote a largenumber of new consumers,accelerate the return time of consumption points,and complete the actual effect of the drainage method.3.Industry partnersAfter the third consumption,consumers will consume points into industry points,and industry points can participate in the investment of realindustries and projects under USEE ELECTRONIC COMMERCE LTD,and obtain dividends,and combine the interests of consumers with theinterests of USEE ELECTRONIC COMMERCE LTD through the real industry to enhance the stickiness between consumers and the platform.4.Public domain promotion,Private domain traffic conversionThrough its own new media matrix and media resources,an online traffic portal is formed,and precipitated to the WeChat official account,whichis converted into private domain traffic through the online education platform.5.The system acquires newcomersThrough salon meetings,brand sessions,brand sessions and other conference forms and offline store membership systems,we will connect the C-end in an organized and organized manner,connect users and expand influence.Our ChallengesUnlike consumer e-commerce platforms,industrial e-commerce platforms mostly focus on a certain production area or even certain specificproducts,such as steel,cloth,ore,which will enter the next production process after the transaction.At present,there are no homogeneousenterprises in the industrial e-commerce segment that take light luxury/luxury goods as the entrance of consumption flow.8 As filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission on March 23,2023.In the future,USEE ELECTRONIC COMMERCE LTD will explore the implementation of the industrial consumption point system,continuouslyimprove the innovation and entrepreneurship mechanism,create a business cycle ecosystem,and form a preferred platform for industry andfinance incubation and operation services.Secondly,our challenges also include the existing mature e-commerce platforms,such as Amazon,TIK TOK and other e-commerce platforms,which will be the preferred shopping platform for consumers,which will have a certain impact and difficulty in our promotion,these mature e-commerce platforms have a huge consumer group,which will cause us certain challenges.Our market opportunityIndustry forecastsLight luxury/luxury industryAt present,the proportion of luxury goods consumption is increasing,peoples spending power is increasing rapidly,and international luxurygiants are paying more and more attention to the large scale and growth potential of the online market.Online consumption is gradually becomingmainstream,major brands are relying on the Internet to carry out various marketing activities to maintain contact and interaction with consumers,and the growth rate of online sales of luxury goods is much higher than offline.E-commerce industryVertical markets are the main user group of USEE ELECTRONIC COMMERCE LTD,where goods and services are sold to a specific customerbase who can connect with each other through different scenarios.This kind of e-commerce industry model will usher in an explosive period in2023.Our Corporate StructureOur companys organizational structure consists of a board of directors,a strategy committee and an executive committee.With Mr.Zhao Qiu asthe chairman and Mr.Xiang Long as the executive president,there are 8 departments:comprehensive department,business department,financedepartment,planning department,business school,e-commerce department,customer service department and technology department to ensurethat the company operates in a legal and compliant manner,and also ensures the companys business development.Our StrategyUSEE ELECTRONIC COMMERCE LTD is committed to promoting industrial integration and industry-finance integration,insisting ondeepening business connections and extending industrial chains,actively exploring new industry ecological models,discovering new developmentdirections,and promoting industrial integration and growth.At the same time,United Capital institutions support the institutional mechanisms ofnew technologies,new industries,new formats and new models,realize the symbiosis of industry and finance,and promote the formation of high-quality industrial ecology and coordinated development.In the future,USEE ELECTRONIC COMMERCE LTD will gradually expand its strength and influence through investment,equity participationand strategic cooperation,so that all USEE ELECTRONIC COMMERCE LTD participants can share the wealth feast.Implications of Our Being an“Emerging Growth Company”On September 9,2022,the SEC adopted inflation adjustments mandated by the Jumpstart Our Business Startups Act of 2012(the“JOBS Act”).As a result,an“emerging growth company”will lose its emerging growth company status on the last day of the fiscal year in which it has$1.235billion or more in total.As a company with less than$1.235 billion in revenue during our last fiscal year,we qualify as an“emerging growthcompany“as defined in the JOBS Act.“An“emerging growth company”may take advantage of reduced reporting requirements that are otherwiseapplicable to larger public companies.In particular,as an emerging growth company,we:may present only two years of audited financial statements and only two years of related Managements Discussion and Analysis of FinancialCondition and Results of Operations;9 As filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission on March 23,2023.are not required to provide a detailed narrative disclosure discussing our compensation principles,objectives and elements and analyzinghow those elements fit with our principles and objectives,which is commonly referred to as“compensation discussion and analysis”;are not required to obtain an attestation and report from our auditors on our managements assessment of our internal control over financialreporting pursuant to the Sarbanes-Oxley Act of 2002;are not required to obtain a non-binding advisory vote from our shareholders on executive compensation or golden parachute arrangements(commonly referred to as the“say-on-pay,”“say-on frequency”and“say-on-golden-parachute”votes);are exempt from certain executive compensation disclosure provisions requiring a pay-for-performance graph and CEO pay ratio disclosure;are eligible to claim longer phase-in periods for the adoption of new or revised financial accounting standards under 107 of the JOBS Act;and will not be required to conduct an evaluation of our internal control over financial reporting until our second annual report on Form 20-Ffollowing the effectiveness of our initial public offering.We intend to take advantage of all of these reduced reporting requirements and exemptions,including the longer phase-in periods for the adoptionof new or revised financial accounting standards under 107 of the JOBS Act.Our election to use the phase-in periods may make it difficult tocompare our financial statements to those of non-emerging growth companies and other emerging growth companies that have opted out of thephase-in periods under 107 of the JOBS Act.Under the JOBS Act,we may take advantage of the above-described reduced reporting requirements and exemptions until we no longer meet thedefinition of an emerging growth company.The JOBS Act provides that we would cease to be an“emerging growth company”at the end of thefiscal year in which the fifth anniversary of our initial sale of common equity pursuant to a registration statement declared effective under theSecurities Act of 1933,as amended(the“Securities Act”)occurred,if we have more than$1.235 billion in annual revenue,have more than$700million in market value of our Class A Ordinary Share held by non-affiliates,or issue more than$1 billion in principal amount of non-convertibledebt over a three-year period.Foreign Private Issuer Status We are a foreign private issuer within the meaning of the rules under the Securities Exchange Act of 1934,as amended(the“Exchange Act”).Assuch,we are exempt from certain provisions applicable to United States domestic public companies.For example:We are not required to provide as many Exchange Act reports,or as frequently,as a domestic public company;For interim reporting,we are permitted to comply solely with our home country requirements,which are less rigorous than the rules thatapply to domestic public companies;We are not required to provide the same level of disclosure on certain issues,such as executive compensation;We are exempt from provisions of Regulation FD aimed at preventing issuers from making selective disclosures of material information;We are not required to comply with the sections of the Exchange Act regulating the solicitation of proxies,consents,or authorizations inrespect of a security registered under the Exchange Act;and We are not required to comply with Section 16 of the Exchange Act requiring insiders to file public reports of their share ownership andtrading activities and establishing insider liability for profits realized from any“short-swing”trading transaction.Implications of Being a Controlled Company Controlled companies are exempt from the majority of independent director requirements.Controlled companies are subject to an exemption fromNasdaq standards requiring that the board of a listed company consist of a majority of independent directors within one year of the listing date.10 As filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission on March 23,2023.Public Companies that qualify as a“Controlled Company”with securities listed on the Nasdaq Stock Market(Nasdaq),must comply with theexchanges continued listing standards to maintain their listings.Nasdaq has adopted qualitative listing standards.Companies that do not complywith these corporate governance requirements may lose their listing status.Under the Nasdaq rules,a“controlled company”is a company withmore than 50%of its voting power held by a single person,entity or group.Under Nasdaq rules,a controlled company is exempt from certaincorporate governance requirements including:The requirement that a majority of the board of directors consist of independent directors;The requirement that a listed company have a nominating and governance committee that is composed entirely of independent directors witha written charter addressing the committees purpose and responsibilities;The requirement that a listed company have a compensation committee that is composed entirely of independent directors with a writtencharter addressing the committees purpose and responsibilities;and The requirement for an annual performance evaluation of the nominating and governance committee and compensation committee.Controlled companies must still comply with the exchanges other corporate governance standards.These include having an audit committee andthe special meetings of independent or non-management directors.Our Pre-IPOPrior to the IPO,we total share capital was about 80,000,000 ordinary shares.This time,about 8,000,000 ordinary shares were sold,which is weexpect that the initial public offering price will be no less than US$6.66 per share.Our Corporate Information Our principal executive offices are located at FLOOR 1 OFFICE 25,22 MARKET SQUARE,LONDON,ENGLAND.Our telephone number is 44 07514685567.11 As filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission on March 23,2023.OFFERINGS Below is a summary of the terms of the offering:IssuerUSEE ELECTRONIC COMMERCE LTD Securities Being Offered Ordinary Shares,par value US$0.0001 per share Offering PriceWe expect that the initial public offering price will be US$6.60 per Ordinary Share.Ordinary Shares OutstandingImmediately Before This Offering Ordinary Shares Ordinary Shares OutstandingImmediately After This Offering Ordinary Shares(or Ordinary Shares if the underwriters exercise their option topurchase additional Ordinary Shares in full).Voting RightsEach Ordinary Share is entitled to one vote.Use of Proceeds Proposed Nasdaq Trading Symboland ListingWe plan to apply to list our Ordinary Shares on the Nasdaq Capital Market under the symbol“USEE”This offering is contingent upon us listing our Ordinary Shares on Nasdaq CapitalMarket or another national exchange.No assurance can be given that such listing will beapproved or that a liquid trading market will develop for our Ordinary Shares.Lock-upOur directors,executive officers,and shareholder who own 5%or more of the outstandingOrdinary Shares intended agreed with the underwriters not to offer for sale,issue,sell,contract to sell,pledge or otherwise dispose of any of our Ordinary Shares or securitiesconvertible into Ordinary Shares for a period of 6 months commencing on the date of thisprospectus.The Company is also prohibited from conducting offerings during this period andfrom re-pricing or changing the terms of existing options and warrants.See“Underwriting”for additional information.Transfer Agent Risk factorsSee“Risk Factors”for a discussion of risks you should carefully consider before investing inour Ordinary Shares.12 As filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission on March 23,2023.RISK FACTORS An investment in our Ordinary Shares involves a high degree of risk.Before deciding whether to invest in our Ordinary Shares,you shouldconsider carefully the risks described below,together with all of the other information set forth in this prospectus,including the section titled“Managements Discussion and Analysis of Financial Condition and Results of Operations”and our consolidated financial statements and relatednotes.If any of these risks actually occurs,our business,financial condition,results of operations or cash flow could be materially and adverselyaffected,which could cause the trading price of our Ordinary Shares to decline,resulting in a loss of all or part of your investment.The risksdescribed below and in the documents referenced above are not the only ones that we face.Additional risks not presently known to us or that wecurrently deem immaterial may also affect our business.You should only consider investing in our Ordinary Shares if you can bear the risk of lossof your entire investment.Risks Related to Our Business We have grown rapidly in recent years and have limited experience operating at our current scale of operations.If we are unable tomanage our growth effectively,our brand,company culture and financial results may suffer.We have grown rapidly in the past year and our recent growth rates and financial results should not be considered indicators of our futureperformance.In order to effectively manage and leverage our growth,we must continue to expand our sales and marketing,focus on innovativeproduct and website development,and upgrade our management information systems.Our continued growth has in the past and may in the futurestrain our existing resources and we may experience ongoing operational difficulties in managing our operations in numerous jurisdictions,including difficulties in recruiting,training and managing a dispersed and growing employee base.Failure to expand and maintain our companyculture through growth may harm our future success,including our ability to retain and recruit personnel and to effectively focus on and pursueour corporate goals.Retail-Nonstore Retailers industry is evolving rapidly and may not evolve as we expect.Even if our net sales continue to grow,our net salesgrowth rate may decline in the future due to a variety of factors,including macroeconomic factors,changes in supply and supply chain,changes inconsumer preferences,increased competition and the maturation of our business.Accordingly,you should not rely on our net sales growth ratesfor any prior period as an indicator of our future performance.Our overall growth in net sales will depend on many factors,including our abilityto:1)price our products and services effectively so that we can attract new customers and expand our relationships with existing customers.2)accurately forecast our net sales and plan our operating expenses.3)compete successfully with other companies that are or may be entering our competitive market in the future and respond to developments inthose competitors,such as pricing changes and the introduction of new products and services.4)Complying with existing and new laws and regulations that apply to our business.5)Successfully expanding into existing markets and entering new markets,including new geographic areas and categories.6)The successful introduction of new products and enhancements to our products and services and their features,including in response to newtrends or competitive dynamics or customer needs or preferences.7)Successfully identifying and acquiring or investing in businesses,products or technologies that we believe will complement or expand ourbusiness.8)Avoiding disruptions or interruptions in the distribution of our products and services.9)Providing quality support to our customers that meets their needs.10)Hiring,integrating and retaining talented sales,customer service and other personnel.11)Effectively managing the growth of our business,personnel and operations,including the opening of new showrooms.12)Effectively managing the costs associated with our business and operations.13)Maintaining and enhancing our reputation and brand value.13 As filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission on March 23,2023.Because of our limited history of operating our business at our current scale,it is difficult to assess our current operations and future prospects,including our ability to plan for and model future growth.Our limited operating experience at this scale,combined with the rapidly evolvingnature of the markets in which we sell our products and services,the significant uncertainty about how these markets will develop and othereconomic factors beyond our control,reduces our ability to accurately forecast quarterly or annual revenues.Failure to effectively manage ourfuture growth could adversely affect our business,financial condition and results of operations.We have limited sources of working capital and will need substantial additional financing.The working capital required to implement our business strategy and R&D efforts will most likely be provided by funds obtained throughofferings of our equity,debt,debt-linked securities,and/or equity-linked securities,and revenues generated by us.No assurance can be given thatwe will have revenues sufficient to sustain our operations or that we would be able to obtain equity/debt financing in the current economicenvironment.If we do not have sufficient working capital and are unable to generate sufficient revenues or raise additional funds,we may delaythe completion of or significantly reduce the scope of our current business plan;delay some of our development and clinical or marketing efforts;postpone the hiring of new personnel;or,under certain dire financial circumstances,substantially curtail or cease our operations.We may need to engage in capital-raising transactions in the near future.Such financing transactions may well cause substantial dilution to ourshareholders and could involve the issuance of securities with rights senior to the outstanding shares.Our ability to complete additional financingsis dependent on,among other things,the state of the capital markets at the time of any proposed offering,market reception of the Company andthe likelihood of the success of its business model and offering terms.There is no assurance that we will be able to obtain any such additionalcapital through asset sales,equity or debt financing,or any combination thereof,on satisfactory terms or at all.Additionally,no assurance can begiven that any such financing,if obtained,will be adequate to meet our capital needs and to support our operations.If we do not obtain adequatecapital on a timely basis and on satisfactory terms,our revenues and operations and the value of our Ordinary Shares and Ordinary Shareequivalents would be materially negatively impacted and we may cease our operations.We are dependent on certain key personnel and loss of these key personnel could have a material adverse effect on our business,financialcondition and results of operations.Our success is,to a certain extent,attributable to the management,sales and marketing,and research and development expertise of key personnel.We are dependent upon the services of Mr.Zhao Qiu,our Chairman of the Board,for the continued growth and operation of our Company,due tohis industry experience,technical expertise,as well as his personal and business contacts in the PRC.Additionally,Ms.Hongqiong Li,performskey functions in the operation of our business.We may not be able to retain Mr.Xiang Long and Mr.Haiyang Yang for any given period of time.Although we have no reason to believe that Mr.Jianguo Wang and Ms.Juan Feng will discontinue their services with us,the interruption or loss ofhis services would adversely affect our ability to effectively run our business and pursue our business strategy as well as our results of operations.We do not carry key man life insurance for any of our key personnel,nor do we foresee purchasing such insurance to protect against the loss ofkey personnel.Our success depends on our ability to protect our intellectual property.Our success depends on our ability to obtain and maintain patent protection for products developed utilizing our technologies,in the PRC and inother countries,and to enforce these patents.There is no assurance that any of our existing and future patents will be held valid and enforceableagainst third-party infringement or that our products will not infringe any third-party patent or intellectual property.We own patentsand have filed additional patent applications with the Patent Administration Department of the PRC;however,there is no assurancethat our filed patent applications will be granted.Any patents relating to our technologies may not be sufficiently broad to protect our products.In addition,our patents may be challenged,potentially invalidated or potentially circumvented.Our patents may not afford us protection against competitors with similar technology or permitthe commercialization of our products without infringing third-party patents or other intellectual property rights.14 As filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission on March 23,2023.We also rely on or intend to rely on our trademarks,trade names and brand names to distinguish our products from the products of ourcompetitors,and have registered or will apply to register a number of these trademarks.However,third parties may oppose our trademarkapplications or otherwise challenge our use of the trademarks.In the event that our trademarks are successfully challenged,we could be forced torebrand our products,which could result in loss of brand recognition and could require us to devote resources to advertising and marketing thesenew brands.Further,our competitors may infringe our trademarks,or we may not have adequate resources to enforce our trademarks.In addition,we also have trade secrets,non-patented proprietary expertise and continuing technological innovation that we shall seek to protect,inpart,by entering into confidentiality agreements with licensees,suppliers,employees and consultants.These agreements may be breached andthere may not be adequate remedies in the event of a breach.Disputes may arise concerning the ownership of intellectual property or theapplicability of confidentiality agreements.Moreover,our trade secrets and proprietary technology may otherwise become known or beindependently developed by our competitors.If patents are not issued with respect to products arising from research,we may not be able tomaintain the confidentiality of information relating to these products.If we fail to maintain an effective quality control system,our business could be materially and adversely affected.We place great emphasis on product quality and adhere to stringent quality control measures and have obtained quality control certifications forour products.To meet our customers requirements and expectations for the quality and safety of our products,we have adopted a stringent qualitycontrol system to ensure that every step of the production process is strictly monitored and managed.Failure to maintain an effective qualitycontrol system or to obtain or renew our quality standards certifications may result in a decrease in demand for our products or cancellation or lossof purchase orders from our customers.Moreover,our reputation could be impaired.As a result,our business and results of operations could bematerially and adversely affected.We may experience significant fluctuations in our results of operations and growth rate.We have grown significantly in recent years,and we intend to continue to expand the scope and geographic reach of the services we provide.Ouranticipated future growth will likely place significant demands on our management and operations.Our success in managing our growth willdepend,to a significant degree,on the ability of our executive officers and other members of senior management to operate effectively and on ourability to further improve and develop our financial and management information systems,controls and procedures.In addition,we expect to haveto adapt our existing systems and introduce new systems,train and manage our employees and improve and expand our sales and marketingcapabilities.Revenue growth may slow down or decline for any number of reasons,including our inability to attract and retain sellers and buyers,decreasedbuyer spending,increased competition,slowing overall growth of the e-commerce market,the emergence of alternative business models,changesin government policies and general economic conditions.We may also lose buyers and sellers for other reasons,such as a failure to deliversatisfactory customer or transaction experience or high-quality services.If we are unable to properly and prudently manage our operations as theycontinue to grow,or if the quality of our services deteriorates due to mismanagement,our brand name and reputation could be significantlyharmed,and our business,prospects,financial condition and results of operations could be materially and adversely affected.Our results of operations may fluctuate significantly as a result of a variety of factors,including those described above.As a result,historicalperiod-to-period comparisons of our results of operations are not necessarily indicative of future period-to-period results.You should not rely onthe results of a single fiscal quarter as an indication of our annual results or our future performance.15 As filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission on March 23,2023.If we fail to effectively promote our business and attract new and retain current buyers and sellers,our business,results of operations andprospects may be materially and adversely affected.We believe that the effective promotion of our business is of significant importance to our success.Enhancing our brand recognition in the e-commerce market is critical to increasing the quantity and depth of engagement of sellers and buyers with our platform,which,in turn,enhancesthe appeal and assortment of products and services to buyers.We have conducted and will continue to conduct various marketing and promotionalactivities,including through both digital channels and offline media,aimed at increasing the visibility of our business,the attractiveness of ourplatform for our sellers and buyers and the growth of buyer traffic on our websites and mobile apps.We cannot assure you,however,that theseactivities will be effective in achieving the intended promotional impact on our business.In addition,our buyers and sellers may have conflictingviews regarding some of the new initiatives we introduce to improve our platform,which can diminish our attempts to maintain a positive networkeffect and negatively affect our buyer and seller base.Further,any negative publicity relating to our products or services,regardless of its veracity,could harm our reputation and cause buyers and sellers to leave our platform,which would have a material adverse effect on our business,financial condition and results of operations.If our marketing efforts are not successful in attracting new and retaining current buyers,ourbusiness,prospects,financial condition and results of operations could be materially and adversely affected.If we fail to maintain and enhance our brand,our business,prospects and results of operations may be materially and adversely affected.We believe that maintaining and enhancing our USEE brand is significantly important to the success of our business.A well-recognized brand iscritical to increasing the number of buyers and sellers and the level of their engagement and,in turn,enhancing the attractiveness of our productsand services to them.Despite conducting a number of brand promotion and recognition activities from time to time,we cannot assure you thatthese activities will be successful in the future or that we will be able to achieve the brand promotion effects that we expect.In addition,ourcompetitors may increase the intensity of their marketing campaigns,which may force us to increase our advertising spend to maintain our brandawareness.If our brand is harmed or we are forced to increase our marketing expenses,our business,prospects,financial condition and results ofoperations could be materially and adversely affected.We operate in a competitive market.If we fail to retain our current market position,our business and results of operations could bematerially and adversely affected.The markets for our products and services are competitive and rapidly evolving.The successful execution of our strategy depends on our ability tocontinuously attract and retain sellers and buyers,expand the market for our products and services,continue technological innovation and offernew capabilities to sellers and buyers.We have many competitors not only among other e-commerce companies,but also physical stores and alarge and fragmented group of other offline retailers.We compete with these current and potential competitors for both sellers and buyers.Fromtime to time,our buyers may decide not to continue purchasing products on our platform for various reasons,including choosing to shop in offlineretail stores once more.Our sellers may also decide to switch to our competitors services.Some of our existing or potential competitors may havegreater resources,capabilities and expertise in management,technology,finance,product development,sales,marketing and other areas.Further,the internet facilitates competitive entry and comparison shopping,which enhances the ability of new,smaller or lesser known businesses,including businesses from outside Russia,to compete against us.As a result of these various types of current and potential competitors,we mayfail to retain or may lose our current market position,we may fail to continue to attract new and maintain our existing buyers and sellers,and wemay be required to increase our spending or maintain lower prices,which could materially and adversely affect our business,prospects,financialcondition and results of operations.If we are not able to respond successfully to technological or industry developments,including changes to the business models deployed inour industry,our business may be materially and adversely affected.16 As filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission on March 23,2023.The e-commerce market is characterized by rapid technological developments,frequent launches of new products and services,changes in buyerneeds and behavior and evolving industry standards.As a result,participants in the e-commerce industry constantly change their product offeringsand business models and adopt new technologies to,among other things,increase cost efficiency and adapt to buyer preferences.There can be noassurances that our key competitors will not adopt a more effective business strategy than us or that our competitors will not be able to morequickly adapt to industry changes than we will.If we fail to successfully and timely respond to technological or industry developments,it couldresult in a loss of sellers and buyers,and our brand,business,prospects,financial condition and results of operations could be materially andadversely affected.We rely on many counterparties and third-party providers in our business,and the nonperformance or loss of a significant third-partyprovider through bankruptcy,consolidation,or otherwise,could adversely affect our operations.We are party to agreements with third-party companies in various aspects of our business model,including the lessors of our fulfillment centersand various logistics providers.If we are unable to maintain or renew leases,or lease other suitable premises on acceptable terms,or if ourexisting leases are terminated for any reason(including in connection with a lessors loss of its ownership rights to such premises),or if a leasesterms(including rental charges)are revised to our detriment,such matters could have a material adverse effect on our business,financial conditionand results of operations.If these third parties do not comply with applicable legal or administrative requirements,were to default on theirobligations,or if we lose a significant provider through bankruptcy,consolidation or otherwise,we may be subject to litigation with these third-party providers,fail to renew the respective agreements on commercially acceptable terms and,therefore,face the need of switching to new third-party providers,who may provide services to us at higher prices,and any of the following of which could have a material adverse effect on ourbusiness,prospects,financial condition and results of operations.We may have difficulties with sourcing the products we sell through our Direct Sales business.Besides connecting,and facilitating transactions between,buyers and sellers on our Marketplace,we sell products directly to our buyers throughour Direct Sales business.In our Direct Sales business,we purchase and hold inventory of a selection of products in our fulfillment centers to besold directly to buyers,and therefore are dependent on our suppliers we source the products from.There can be no assurance that we will be ableto timely replace any of our suppliers in case their products are no longer available to us or otherwise procure the supply of products to ourfacilities to be sold through the Direct Sales business,which may adversely affect our business,prospects,financial condition and results ofoperations.Computer viruses,undetected software errors and hacking may cause delays or interruptions on our systems and may reduce the use ofour services and damage our brand reputation.Our online systems,including our websites,mobile apps and our other software applications,products and systems,could contain undetectederrors,or“bugs,”that could adversely affect their performance.While we regularly update and enhance our websites and IT platform andintroduce new versions of our mobile apps,the occurrence of errors in any such updates or enhancements may cause disruptions in the provisionof our services and may,as a result,cause us to lose market share,and our reputation and brand,business,prospects,financial condition andresults of operations could be materially and adversely affected.In addition,computer viruses and cyber security compromises have in the past,which to date have not been material,and may in the future causedelays or other service interruptions on our systems.However,we may be subject to hacking attempts by malicious actors who seek to gainunauthorized access to our information or systems or to cause intentional malfunctions,loss or corruption of data or leakages of our buyers andsellers personal data.While we employ various antivirus and computer protection software in our operations,we cannot provide any assurancethat such protections will successfully prevent all hacking attempts(whether through the use of“denial of service”attacks or otherwise)or thetransmission of any computer viruses which,if not prevented,could significantly damage our software systems and databases,cause disruptions toour business activities(including to our e-mail and other communications systems),result in security breaches and the inadvertent disclosure ofconfidential and/or sensitive information and hinder access to our platform.17 As filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission on March 23,2023.We may incur significant costs to protect our systems and equipment against the threat of,and to repair any damage caused by,computer virusesand hacking.Moreover,if a computer virus or other compromise of our systems becomes highly publicized,our reputation could be materiallydamaged,resulting in a decrease in the use of our products and services.The inadvertent transmission of computer viruses could also expose us toliability and legal action,which may adversely affect our business,financial condition and results of operations.We may be unable to effectively communicate with our buyers and sellers through email,other messages or social media.We rely on newsletters in the form of emails and other messaging services in order to promote our platform and inform our buyers of our productofferings and/or the status of their orders,or inform our sellers of any updates on the terms and conditions of the sale of their products on ourMarketplace.Changes in how webmail services organize and prioritize emails could reduce the number of buyers and sellers opening our emails.For example,some webmail services offer tools and features that could result in our emails and other messages being shown as“spam”or aslower priority to our consumers,which could reduce the likelihood of consumers opening or responding positively to them.Actions by thirdparties to block,impose restrictions on,or charge for the delivery of emails and other messages,as well as legal or regulatory changes with respectto“permission-based marketing”or generally limiting our right to send such messages or imposing additional requirements on our ability toconduct email marketing or send other messages,could impair our ability to communicate with our buyers and sellers.If we are unable to sendemails or other messages to our buyers and sellers,if such messages are delayed or if buyers and sellers do not receive or decline to open them,wewould no longer be able to use this free marketing channel.This could impair our marketing efforts or make them more expensive if we have toincrease spending on paid marketing channels to compensate and as a result,our business could be adversely affected.Additionally,malfunctions of our email and messaging services could result in erroneous messages being sent and buyers and sellers no longerwanting to receive any messages from us.Furthermore,our process of obtaining consent from our buyers to receive newsletters and othermessages from us and to allow us to use their data may be insufficient or invalid.As a result,such individuals or third parties may accuse us ofsending unsolicited advertisements and other messages,and our use of email and other messaging services could result in claims against us.Since we also rely on social media to communicate with our buyers,changes to the terms and conditions of relevant providers could limit ourability to communicate through social media.These services may change their algorithms or interfaces without notifying us,which may reduceour visibility.In addition,there could be a decline in the use of such social media by our buyers,in which case we may be required to find other,potentially more expensive,communication channels.An inability to communicate through emails,other messages or social media could have a material adverse effect on our business,prospects,financial condition and results of operations.We may be subject to product liability claims when people or property are harmed or damaged by the products that are sold on ourplatform.We are exposed to product liability or food safety claims relating to personal injury or illness,death or environmental or property damage causedby the products that are sold by us or through our Marketplace,and we do not maintain any insurance with respect to such product liability.As theproducts offered by us or through our Marketplace are manufactured by third parties,we have only limited control over the quality of theseproducts.In addition,we cannot always effectively prevent our sellers from selling harmful or defective products on our Marketplace,which couldcause death,disease or injury to our buyers or damage their property.We may be seen as having facilitated the sale of such products and may beforced to recall such products.Under our Direct Sales model,where we act directly as seller,we may also have to recall harmful products.18 As filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission on March 23,2023.Although we require that our sellers only offer products that comply with the existing product safety rules and monitor such compliance,we maynot be able to detect,enforce or collect sufficient damages for breaches of such agreements.In addition,any negative publicity resulting fromproduct recalls or the assertion that we sold defective products could damage our brand and reputation.Any material product liability,food safetyor other claim could have an adverse effect on our business,prospects,results of operations and financial condition.We may be impacted by fraudulent or unlawful activities of sellers,which could have a material adverse effect on our reputation andbusiness and may result in civil or criminal liability.The law relating to the liability of online service providers is currently unsettled in Russia,and governmental agencies have in the past and couldin the future require changes in the way online businesses are conducted.Our standard agreement with the sellers on our Marketplace provides formonthly payments to sellers for the products sold rather than immediate payment after the sale of a product.Our standard form agreement with oursellers provides that we will directly compensate the buyer for the purchase price if a buyer makes a return and the seller must refund us the priceof the returned product.These provisions are designed to prevent sellers from collecting payments,fraudulently or otherwise,in the event that abuyer does not receive the products they ordered or when the products received are materially different from the sellers descriptions,and toprevent sellers on our Marketplace from selling unlawful,counterfeit,pirated,or stolen goods,selling goods in an unlawful or unethical manner,violating the proprietary rights of others or otherwise violating our product requirements.If our sellers circumvent or otherwise fail to complywith these provisions,it could harm our business or damage our reputation,and we could face civil or criminal liability for unlawful activities byour sellers.We depend upon talented employees,including our senior management and IT specialists,to grow,operate and improve our business,andif we are unable to retain and motivate our personnel and attract new talent,we may not be able to grow effectively.Our success depends on our continued ability to identify,hire,develop,motivate and retain talented employees.Our ability to execute and manageour operations efficiently is dependent upon contributions from all of our employees.Competition for senior management and key IT personnel isintense,and the pool of qualified candidates is relatively limited.From time to time,some of our key personnel may choose to leave our companyfor various reasons,including personal career development plans or alternative compensation packages.An inability to retain the services of ourkey personnel or properly manage the working relationship among our management and employees may expose us to legal or administrativeaction or adverse publicity,which could adversely affect our reputation,business,prospects,financial condition and results of operations.Training new employees with no prior relevant experience could be time consuming and requires a significant amount of resources.We may alsoneed to increase the compensation we pay to our employees from time to time in order to retain them.If competition in our industry intensifies,itmay be increasingly difficult for us to hire,motivate and retain highly skilled personnel due to significant market demand.If we fail to attractadditional highly skilled personnel or retain or motivate our existing personnel,we may be unable to pursue growth,and our business,prospects,financial condition and results of operations could be materially and adversely affected.Employee misconduct is difficult to determine and detect and could harm our reputation and business.We face a risk that may arise out of our employees lack of knowledge or willful,negligent or involuntary violations of laws,rules and regulationsor other misconduct.Misconduct by employees could involve,among other things,the improper use or disclosure of confidential information(including trade secrets),embezzlement or fraud,any of which could result in regulatory sanctions or fines imposed on us,as well as cause usserious reputational or financial harm.We have experienced fraudulent misconduct by employees in the past,which to date has not caused anymaterial harm to our business.However,any such further misconduct in the future may result in unknown and unmanaged risks and losses.Wehave internal audit,security and other procedures in place that are designed to monitor our employees conduct.However,despite these controlsand procedures there can be no assurance that we will discover employee misconduct in a timely and effective manner,if at all.It is not alwayspossible to guard against employee misconduct and ensure full compliance with our risk management and information policies.The direct andindirect costs of employee misconduct can be substantial,and our business,prospects,financial condition and results of operations could bematerially and adversely affected.19 As filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission on March 23,2023.We do not have and may be unable to obtain sufficient insurance to protect ourselves from business risks.The insurance industry in Russia relative to that in other jurisdictions is not as mature,and accessibility to many forms of insurance coveragecommon in other jurisdictions is limited.We currently maintain insurance coverage for our fulfillment centers and service centers but do notmaintain insurance coverage for our servers,pick-up points,business interruption risks,product liability or third-party liability in respect of mostof environmental damage arising from accidents on our property or relating to our operations.Until we obtain adequate insurance coverage,thereis a risk of irrecoverable loss or destruction of certain assets,and our business,prospects,financial condition and results of operations could bematerially and adversely affected.The global coronavirus COVID-19 pandemic has caused significant disruptions in our business,which may continue to materially andadversely affect our results of operations and financial condition.On March 11,2020,the World Health Organization declared the COVID-19 outbreak a global pandemic.Many businesses and social activities inChina and other countries and regions were severely disrupted in 2020,including those of our suppliers,customers and employees.This pandemichas also caused market panics,which materially and negatively affected the global financial markets,such as the plunge of global stocks on majorstock exchanges in March 2020.Such disruption and slowdown of the worlds economy in 2020 and beyond had,and may continue to have,amaterial adverse effect on our results of operations and financial condition.We and our customers experienced significant business disruptions andsuspension of operations due to quarantine measures to contain the spread of the pandemic,which caused shortage in the supply of raw materials,reduced our production capacity,increased the likelihood of default from our customers and delayed our product delivery.All of these had resultedin a material adverse effect on our results of operations and financial condition in the fiscal year 2021.The extent to which the COVID-19pandemic may impact our business,operations and financial results will depend on numerous evolving factors that the Company cannot accuratelypredict at this time,including the uncertainty on the potential resurgence of the COVID-19 cases in China,the continual spread of the virusglobally,and the instability of local and global government policies and restrictions.We are closely monitoring the development of the COVID-19pandemic and continuously evaluating any further potential impact on our business,results of operations and financial condition.If the pandemicpersists or escalates,we may be subject to further negative impact on our business operations and financial condition.A severe or prolonged downturn in the global or Chinese economy could materially and adversely affect our business and our financialcondition.Although the Chinese economy expanded well in the last two decades,the rapid growth of the Chinese economy has slowed down since 2012,andthere is considerable uncertainty over the long-term effects of the expansionary monetary and fiscal policies adopted by the Peoples Bank ofChina and financial authorities of some of the worlds leading economies,including the United States and China.There have been concerns overunrest and terrorist threats in the Middle East,Europe and Africa,which have resulted in volatility in oil and other markets.There have also beenconcerns on the relationship among China and other Asian countries,which may result in or intensify potential conflicts in relation to territorialdisputes.Economic conditions in China are sensitive to global economic conditions,as well as changes in domestic economic and politicalpolicies and the expected or perceived overall economic growth rate in China.Any severe or prolonged slowdown in the global or Chineseeconomy may materially and adversely affect our business,results of operations and financial condition.20 As filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission on March 23,2023.Under the strong supervision of the government,our business may be controlled.The Companys business segments may be subject to various government and regulatory interference in the provinces in which they operate.TheCompany could be subject to regulation by various political and regulatory entities,including various local and municipal agencies andgovernment sub-divisions.The Company may incur increased costs necessary to comply with existing and newly adopted laws and regulations orpenalties for any failure to comply.Additionally,the governmental and regulatory interference could significantly limit or completely hinder ourability to offer or continue to offer securities to investors and cause the value of such securities to significantly decline or be worthless.Furthermore,it is uncertain when and whether the Company will be required to obtain permission from the government to list on U.S.exchangesin the future,and even when such permission is obtained,whether it will be denied or rescinded.Although the Company is currently not requiredto obtain permission from any of the local government to obtain such permission and has not received any denial to list on the U.S.exchange,ouroperations could be adversely affected,directly or indirectly,by existing or future laws and regulations relating to its business or industry.Changes in Chinas economic,political or social conditions or government policies could have a material adverse effect on our businessand results of operations.Our business,prospects,financial condition,and results of operations may be influenced significantly by political,economic,and social conditionsin China generally and by continued economic growth in China as a whole.The Chinese economy differs from the economies of most developed countries in many respects,including the amount of governmentinvolvement,level of development,growth rate,control of the foreign exchange,and allocation of resources.Although the Chinese governmenthas implemented measures emphasizing the utilization of market forces for economic reform,the reduction of state ownership of productiveassets,and the establishment of improved corporate governance in business enterprises,a substantial portion of productive assets in China is stillowned by the government.In addition,the Chinese government continues to play a significant role in regulating industry development byimposing industrial policies.The Chinese government also exercises significant control over Chinas economic growth through allocatingresources,controlling payment of foreign currency-denominated obligations,setting monetary policy,and providing preferential treatment toparticular industries or companies.While the Chinese economy has experienced significant growth over the past decades,growth has been uneven,both geographically and amongvarious sectors of the economy.The Chinese government has implemented various measures to encourage economic growth and guide theallocation of resources.Some of these measures may benefit the overall Chinese economy but may harm us.As of the date of this prospectus,we are not aware of other material restrictions and limitations on our ability to distribute earnings from ourbusinesses,including our subsidiaries,to the parent company and U.S.investors or our ability to settle amounts owed,or on foreign exchange orour ability to transfer cash between entities within our group,across borders,or to U.S.investors.If we become directly subject to the scrutiny,criticism and negative publicity involving U.S.-listed Chinese companies,we may have toexpend significant resources to investigate and resolve the matter which could harm our business operations,share price and reputation.21 As filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission on March 23,2023.U.S.public companies that have substantially all of their operations in China have been the subject of intense scrutiny,criticism,and negativepublicity by investors,financial commentators,and regulatory agencies,such as the SEC.Much of the scrutiny,criticism,and negative publicityhas centered on financial and accounting irregularities and mistakes,a lack of effective internal controls over financial accounting,inadequatecorporate governance policies or a lack of adherence thereto and,in many cases,allegations of fraud.On December 7,2018,the SEC and thePCAOB issued a joint statement highlighting continued challenges faced by the U.S.regulators in their oversight of financial statement audits ofU.S.-listed companies with significant operations in China.On April 21,2020,SEC Chairman Jay Clayton and PCAOB Chairman William D.Duhnke III,along with other senior SEC staff,released a joint statement highlighting the risks associated with investing in companies based in orhave substantial operations in emerging markets including China,reiterating past SEC and PCAOB statements on matters including the difficultyassociated with inspecting accounting firms and audit work papers in China and higher risks of fraud in emerging markets and the difficulty ofbringing and enforcing SEC,Department of Justice and other U.S.,including in instances of fraud,in emerging markets generally.As a result ofthis scrutiny,criticism,and negative publicity,the publicly traded stock of many U.S.-listed Chinese companies sharply decreased in value and,insome cases,has become virtually worthless.Many of these companies are now subject to shareholder lawsuits and SEC enforcement actions andare conducting internal and external investigations into the allegations.It is not clear what effect this sector-wide scrutiny,criticism and negativepublicity will have on us,our business,and our share price.In the event that we become the subject of any unfavorable allegations,whether suchallegations are proven to be true or untrue,we will have to expend significant resources to investigate such allegations and/or defend our company.This situation will be costly and time consuming and distract our management from developing our growth.In the event that such allegations arenot proven to be groundless,we and our business operations will be severely affected and you could sustain a significant decline in the value ofour share.Risks Related to the Offering and Our Ordinary Shares The initial public offering price of our Ordinary Shares may not be indicative of the market price of our Ordinary Shares after thisoffering.In addition,an active,liquid and orderly trading market for our Ordinary Shares may not develop or be maintained,and ourshare price may be volatile.Prior to the completion of this offering,our Ordinary Shares were not traded on any market.Any active,liquid and orderly trading market for ourOrdinary Shares may not develop or be maintained after this offering.Active,liquid and orderly trading markets usually result in less pricevolatility and more efficiency in carrying out investors purchase and sale orders.The market price of our Ordinary Shares could vary significantlyas a result of a number of factors,some of which are beyond our control.In the event of a drop in the market price of our Ordinary Shares,youcould lose a substantial part or all of your investment in our Ordinary Shares.The initial public offering price will be determined by us,based onnumerous factors and may not be indicative of the market price of our Ordinary Shares after this offering.Consequently,you may not be able tosell our Ordinary Shares at a price equal to or greater than the price paid by you in this offering.The following factors could affect our share price:our operating and financial performance;quarterly variations in the rate of growth of our financial indicators,such as net income per share,net income and revenues;the public reaction to our press releases,our other public announcements and our filings with the SEC;strategic actions by our competitors;changes in revenue or earnings estimates,or changes in recommendations or withdrawal of research coverage,by equity research analysts;speculation in the press or investment community;the failure of research analysts to cover our Ordinary Shares;sales of our Ordinary Shares by us or other shareholders,or the perception that such sales may occur;changes in accounting principles,policies,guidance,interpretations or standards;additions or departures of key management personnel;actions by our shareholders;domestic and international economic,legal and regulatory factors unrelated to our performance;and the realization of any risks described under this“Risk Factors”section.22 As filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission on March 23,2023.The stock markets in general have experienced extreme volatility that has often been unrelated to the operating performance of particularcompanies.These broad market fluctuations may adversely affect the trading price of our Ordinary Shares.Securities class action litigation hasoften been instituted against companies following periods of volatility in the overall market and in the market price of a companys securities.Such litigation,if instituted against us,could result in very substantial costs,diver our managements attention and resources and harm ourbusiness,operating results and financial condition.There may not be an active,liquid trading market for our Ordinary Shares.Prior to the completion of this offering,there has been no public market for our Ordinary Shares.An active trading market for our Ordinary Sharesmay not develop or be sustained following this offering.You may not be able to sell your shares at the market price,if at all,if trading in ourshares is not active.The initial public offering price was determined by negotiations between us and our advisors based upon a number of factors.The initial public offering price may not be indicative of prices that will prevail in the trading market.Because we do not expect to pay dividends in the foreseeable future after this offering,you must rely on a price appreciation of theOrdinary Shares for a return on your investment.We currently intend to retain most,if not all,of our available funds and any future earnings after this offering to fund the development and growthof our business.As a result,we do not expect to pay any cash dividends in the foreseeable future.Therefore,you should not rely on an investmentin the Ordinary Shares as a source for any future dividend income.A sale or perceived sale of a substantial number of our Ordinary Shares may cause the price of our Ordinary Shares to decline.If our shareholders sell substantial amounts of our Ordinary Shares in the public market,the market price of our Ordinary Shares could fall.Moreover,the perceived risk of this potential dilution could cause shareholders to attempt to sell their shares and investors to short our OrdinaryShares.These sales also make it more difficult for us to sell equity-related securities in the future at a time and price that we deem reasonable orappropriate.There can be no assurance that we will not be a passive foreign investment company(“PFIC”)for United States federal income taxpurposes for any taxable year,which could subject United States holders of our Ordinary Shares to significant adverse United Statesfederal income tax consequences.A non-United States corporation will be a passive foreign investment company,or PFIC,for United States federal income tax purposes for anytaxable year if either(i)at least 75%of its gross income for such taxable year is passive income or(ii)at least 50%of the value of its assets(basedon average of the quarterly values of the assets)during such year is attributable to assets that that produce or are held for the production of passiveincome.Based on the current and anticipated value of our assets and the composition of our income assets,we do not expect to be a PFIC forUnited States federal income tax purposes for our current taxable year ended December 31,2021 or in the foreseeable future.However,thedetermination of whether or not we are a PFIC according to the PFIC rules is made on an annual basis and depend on the composition of ourincome and assets and the value of our assets from time to time.Therefore,changes in the composition of our income or assets or value of ourassets may cause us to become a PFIC.The determination of the value of our assets(including goodwill not reflected on our balance sheet)may bebased,in part,on the quarterly market value of Ordinary Shares,which is subject to change and may be volatile.The classification of certain of our income as active or passive,and certain of our assets as producing active or passive income,and hence whetherwe are or will become a PFIC,depends on the interpretation of certain United States Treasury Regulations as well as certain IRS guidance relatingto the classification of assets as producing active or passive income.Such regulations guidance is potentially subject to different interpretations.Ifdue to different interpretations of such regulations and guidance the percentage of our passive income or the percentage of our assets treated asproducing passive income increases,we may be a PFIC in one of more taxable years.23 As filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission on March 23,2023.If we are a PFIC for any taxable year during which a United States person holds Ordinary Shares,certain adverse United States federal income taxconsequences could apply to such United States person.For as long as we are an emerging growth company,we will not be required to comply with certain reporting requirements,includingthose relating to accounting standards and disclosure about our executive compensation,that apply to other public companies.We are classified as an“emerging growth company”under the JOBS Act.For as long as we are an emerging growth company,which may be up tofive full fiscal years,unlike other public companies,we will not be required to,among other things,(i)provide an auditors attestation report onmanagements assessment of the effectiveness of our system of internal control over financial reporting pursuant to Section 404(b)of theSarbanes-Oxley Act,(ii)comply with any new requirements adopted by the PCAOB requiring mandatory audit firm rotation or a supplement tothe auditors report in which the auditor would be required to provide additional information about the audit and the financial statements of theissuer,(iii)provide certain disclosure regarding executive compensation required of larger public companies,or(iv)hold nonbinding advisoryvotes on executive compensation.We will remain an emerging growth company for up to five years,although we will lose that status sooner if wehave more than$1.235 billion of revenues in a fiscal year,have more than$700 million in market value of our Ordinary Shares held by non-affiliates,or issue more than$1.0 billion of non-convertible debt over a three-year period.To the extent that we rely on any of the exemptions available to emerging growth companies,you will receive less information about ourexecutive compensation and internal control over financial reporting than issuers that are not emerging growth companies.If some investors findour Ordinary Shares to be less attractive as a result,there may be a less active trading market for our Ordinary Shares and our share price may bemore volatile.If we fail to establish and maintain proper internal financial reporting controls,our ability to produce accurate financial statements orcomply with applicable regulations could be impaired.Pursuant to Section 404 of the Sarbanes-Oxley Act,we will be required to file a report by our management on our internal control over financialreporting,including an attention report on internal control over financial reporting issued by our independent registered public accounting firm.However,while we remain an emerging growth company,we will not be required to include an attestation report on internal control over financialreporting issued by our independent registered public accounting firm.The presence of material weakness in internal control over financialreporting could result in financial statement errors,which,in turn,could lead to error our financial reports and/or delays in our financial reporting,which could require us to restate our operating results.We might not identify one or more material weaknesses in our internal controls inconnection with evaluating our compliance with Section 404 of the Sarbanes-Oxley Act.In order to maintain and improve the effectiveness of ourdisclosure controls and procedures and internal controls over financial reporting.We will need to expend significant resources and providesignificant management oversight.Implementing any appropriate changes to our internal controls may require specific compliance training of ourdirectors and employees,entail substantial costs in order to modify our existing accounting systems,take a significant period of time to completeand divert managements attention from other business concerns.These changes may not,however,be effective in maintaining the adequacy ofour internal control.If we are unable to conclude that we have effective internal controls over financial reporting,investors may lose confidence in our operatingresults,the price of the Ordinary Shares could decline and we may be subject to litigation or regulatory enforcement actions.In addition,if we areunable to meet the requirements of Section 404 of the Sarbanes-Oxley Act,the Ordinary Shares may not be able to remain listed on the exchange.24 As filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission on March 23,2023.As a foreign private issuer,we are not subject to certain U.S.securities law disclosure requirements that apply to a domestic U.S.issuer,which may limit the information publicly available to our shareholders.As a foreign private issuer,we are not required to comply with all of the periodic disclosure and current reporting requirements of the ExchangeAct and therefore there may be less publicly available information about us than if we were a U.S.domestic issuer.For example,we are notsubject to the proxy rules in the United States and disclosure with respect to our annual general meetings will be governed by Englandrequirements.In addition,our officers,directors and principal shareholders are exempt from the reporting and“short-swing”profit recoveryprovisions of Section 16 of the Exchange Act and the rules thereunder.Therefore,our shareholders may not know on a timely basis when ourofficers,directors and principal shareholders purchase or sell our Ordinary Shares.As a foreign private issuer,we are permitted to adopt certain home country practices in relation to corporate governance matters thatdiffer significantly from the Nasdaq listing standards.These practices may afford less protection to shareholders than they would enjoy ifwe complied fully with corporate governance listing standards.As a foreign private issuer,we are permitted to take advantage of certain provisions in the Nasdaq listing standards that allow us to follow Englandlaw for certain governance matters.Certain corporate governance practices in the England may differ significantly from corporate governancelisting standards as,except for general fiduciary duties and duties of care,England law has no corporate governance regime which prescribesspecific corporate governance standards.Currently,we do not intend to rely on home country practice with respect to our corporate governanceafter we complete with this offering.However,if we choose to follow home country practice in the future,our shareholders may be afforded lessprotection than they otherwise would have under corporate governance listing standards applicable to U.S.domestic issuers.You may face difficulties in protecting your interests,and your ability to protect your rights through U.S.courts may be limited,becausewe are incorporated under England law.We are an exempted company incorporated under the laws of the England.Our corporate affairs are governed by our memorandum and articles ofassociation,the Companies Act(Revised)of the England and the common law of the England.The rights of shareholders to take action against thedirectors,actions by minority shareholders and the fiduciary duties of our directors to us under England law are to a large extent governed by thecommon law of the England.The common law of the England is derived in part from comparatively limited judicial precedent in the England aswell as from the common law of England,the decisions of whose courts are of persuasive authority,but are not binding,on a court in the England.The rights of our shareholders and the fiduciary duties of our directors under England law are not as clearly established as they would be understatutes or judicial precedent in some jurisdictions in the United States.In particular,the England has a less developed body of securities laws thanthe United States.Some U.S.states,such as Delaware,have more fully developed and judicially interpreted bodies of corporate law than theEngland.In addition,England companies may not have standing to initiate a shareholder derivative action in a federal court of the United States.We are an exempted company incorporated under the laws of the England.Shareholders of England exempted companies have no general rightsunder England law to inspect corporate records or to obtain copies of lists of shareholders of these companies.This may make it more difficult foryou to obtain the information needed to establish any facts necessary for a shareholder motion or to solicit proxies from other shareholders inconnection with a proxy contest.Certain corporate governance practices in the England,which is our home country,differ significantly from requirements for companiesincorporated in other jurisdictions such as the United States.To the extent we choose to follow home country practice with respect to corporategovernance matters,our shareholders may be afforded less protection than they otherwise would under rules and regulations applicable to U.S.domestic issuers.25 As filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission on March 23,2023.As a result of all of the above,our public shareholders may have more difficulty in protecting their interests in the face of actions taken bymanagement,members of the board of directors or controlling shareholders than they would as public shareholders of a company incorporated inthe United States.Certain judgments obtained against us by our shareholders may not be enforceable.We are a England company and substantially all of our assets are located outside of the United States.In addition,substantially all of our currentdirectors and officers are nationals and/or residents of countries other than the United States.All or a substantial portion of the assets of thesepersons are located outside the United States.As a result,it may be difficult or impossible for you to bring an action against us or against theseindividuals in the United States in the event that you believe that your rights have been infringed under the U.S.federal securities laws orotherwise.Even if you are successful in bringing an action of this kind,the laws of the England may render you unable to enforce a judgmentagainst our assets or the assets of our directors and officers.Nasdaq may apply additional and more stringent criteria for our initial and continued listing because we plan to have a small publicoffering and insiders will hold a large portion of the companys listed securities.Nasdaq Listing Rule 5101 provides Nasdaq with broad discretionary authority over the initial and continued listing of securities in Nasdaq andNasdaq may use such discretion to deny initial listing,apply additional or more stringent criteria for the initial or continued listing of particularsecurities,or suspend or delist particular securities based on any event,condition,or circumstance that exists or occurs that makes initial orcontinued listing of the securities on Nasdaq inadvisable or unwarranted in the opinion of Nasdaq,even though the securities meet all enumeratedcriteria for initial

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云鼎科技-公司研究报告-华为AI、ERP、HMOS的核心合作受益领先者三个视角分析为何云鼎科技是华为盘古模型乃至整体产业链核心合作受益的领先者-230326（19页）.pdf

市场有风险，投资需谨慎 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 证券研究报告：计算机|公司深度报告 2023 年 3 月 26 日 股票股票投资评级投资评级 买入买入|首次覆盖首次覆盖 个股表现个股表现 资料来源：聚源，中邮证券研究所 公司基本情况公司基本情况 最新收盘价（元）最新收盘价（元）9.36 总股本总股本/流通股本（亿股）流通股本（亿股）6.64/4.23 总市值总市值/流通市值（亿元）流通市值（亿元）62/40 52 周内最高周内最高/最低价最低价 9.36/4.54 资产负债率资产负债率(%)50.0%市盈率市盈率 272.09 第一大股东第一大股东 山东能源集团有限公司 持股比例持股比例(%)35.9%研究所研究所 分析师:孙业亮 SAC 登记编号:S1340522110002 Email: 研究助理:丁子惠 SAC 登记编号:S1340123020006 Email: 云鼎科技云鼎科技(000409000409)华为华为 AI/ERP/HAI/ERP/HM M OSOS 的核心合作的核心合作受益受益领先者领先者 三个视角分析三个视角分析：为何云鼎科技是华为盘古模型乃至为何云鼎科技是华为盘古模型乃至整体整体产业产业链链核心合作受益核心合作受益的领先的领先者者 引言引言 近期华为盘古大模型功能模块将要陆续上线发布，经过梳理，我们发现云鼎科技在华为技术产品生态中，已经达成深度绑定合作关系。公司基于华为底层技术，研发出自身产品并实现重大突破。公司巩固能源数字化卡位优势，并积极破圈，延伸到化工/高端装备制造等领域。基于此，我们将从控股股东山东能源集团的战略视角，云鼎自身的突破视角，合作伙伴华为的生态发展视角等，三个视角分析预期差并挖掘云鼎被严重低估的价值。三个视角分析三个视角分析：（1）山能集团战略视角：云鼎科技背靠山能集团，山能集团是山东省属头部国企，山东省要力推新旧动能转换标杆龙头，而云鼎科技是山能集团旗下专注 ICT 和工业智能化应用上市主体，是助力数字化和新动能发展的重要抓手。（2）云鼎科技突破视角：公司在山能集团入主后剥离原有业务，全面发展 ICT 业务，2022 年 10 月云鼎与华为达成战略合作，后续不断深化合作。从目前业务发展结果中看，预计公司深度参与华为煤炭军团和盘古大模型合作，后期华为在 MetaERP 推广中将发挥更大作用。（3）华为生态发展视角：华为整体战略是向高价值的 B 端和 G 端客户输出技术产品，扶持生态系统发展，与山东能源集团深度合作便是基于此。云鼎科技与华为技术产品和组织架构战略均有合作和重叠，尤其盘古矿山大模型便是基于华为 CV 大模型演化而来。结论：结论：公司边际持续向好公司边际持续向好 国资卡位优势国资卡位优势 显著认知预期差，显著认知预期差，存在存在天时天时（国资新动能转型需求（国资新动能转型需求&华为力拓华为力拓 B B 端）端）/地利（云鼎地利（云鼎积极积极有为有为&华为华为技术新业态涌现）技术新业态涌现）/人和（股东人和（股东&云鼎云鼎&华为彼此成就）华为彼此成就），预判，预判云鼎科技云鼎科技将是华为盘古模型乃至整体产业链核心合作受益将是华为盘古模型乃至整体产业链核心合作受益的的领先领先者。者。盈利预测盈利预测 我们预测公司2022-2024年营收分别为6.91/10.02/15.03亿元，同比增速36.00%/45.00%/50.00%，归母净利润分别为0.25/0.90/1.62亿元，同比增速分别为 41.21%/263.90%/79.47%。公司背靠山能集团，深度参与盘古矿山大模型，加入融入华为生态圈。在 AI 服务平台领域不断取得突破，同时有望面临华为 MetaERP 带来的国央企高端 ERP国产替代机遇。在未来华为盘古大模型迭代/HM OS 行业渗透中都将充分受益，我们坚定看好公司的中长期发展愿景。首次覆盖给予“买入”评级。风险提示风险提示 技术发展不及预期的风险；商业落地不及预期的风险；市场竞争加剧风险。盈利预测和财务指标盈利预测和财务指标 -28%-21%-14%-7%0%7!(5B 22-032022-062022-082022-102023-012023-03云鼎科技计算机 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 2 项目项目 年度年度 2021A2021A 2022E2022E 2023E2023E 2024E2024E 营业收入（百万元）508.21 691.16 1,002.18 1,503.27 增长率(%)-76.51 36.00 45.00 50.00 EBITDA（百万元）66.27 106.16 225.14 334.75 归属母公司净利润（百万元）17.60 24.85 90.42 162.29 增长率(%)-76.17 41.21 263.90 79.47 EPS(元/股)0.03 0.04 0.14 0.24 市盈率（P/E）353.29 250.20 68.75 38.31 市净率（P/B）12.33 11.92 10.16 8.03 EV/EBITDA 50.01 56.59 27.06 17.26 资料来源：公司公告，中邮证券研究所 eZ9WbZbZ8XfYdXdXaQdN8OmOoOpNpMkPqQnOfQtRxP6MoOzQuOoNzRMYmOtO 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 3 目录目录 1 1 山能集团战略视角山能集团战略视角 .5 5 1.1 1.1 山能巨头，迈向双万亿山能巨头，迈向双万亿 .5 5 1.2 ICT1.2 ICT 重要载体重要载体 .5 5 1.3 1.3 助力数字化愿景助力数字化愿景 .6 6 2 2 云鼎科技突破视角云鼎科技突破视角 .7 7 2.1 2.1 联合研发盘古矿山大模型联合研发盘古矿山大模型 .7 7 2.2 2.2 云鼎云鼎 AIAI 服务平台，效果改善显著服务平台，效果改善显著 .8 8 2.3 2.3 从矿鸿到鼎云工业互联网平台从矿鸿到鼎云工业互联网平台 .9 9 2.4 2.4 从从 SAPSAP 到到 MetaERPMetaERP 的替代推演的替代推演 .1212 3 3 华为生态发展视角华为生态发展视角 .1313 4 4 盈利预测盈利预测 .1616 4.1 4.1 关键假设关键假设 .1616 4.2 4.2 投资建议投资建议 .1616 5 5 风险提示风险提示 .1616 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 4 图表目录图表目录 图表图表 1 1：云鼎科技子公司及主营业务分布云鼎科技子公司及主营业务分布 .5 5 图表图表 2 2：云鼎科技产业布局云鼎科技产业布局 .7 7 图表图表 3 3：华为矿山华为矿山 AIAI 大模型大模型 .8 8 图表图表 4 4：云鼎科技云鼎科技 AIAI 服务平台架构服务平台架构 .9 9 图表图表 5 5：云鼎科技云鼎科技 AIAI 服务平台优势服务平台优势 .9 9 图表图表 6 6：云鼎科技深度运用华为矿鸿为代表的产品云鼎科技深度运用华为矿鸿为代表的产品 .1010 图表图表 7 7：云鼎科技鼎云工业互联网平台体系云鼎科技鼎云工业互联网平台体系 .1010 图表图表 8 8：云鼎科技鼎云工业互联网平台大数据治理体系云鼎科技鼎云工业互联网平台大数据治理体系 .1111 图表图表 9 9：云鼎科技鼎云工业互联网平台云鼎科技鼎云工业互联网平台 .1111 图表图表 1010：华为技术产品华为技术产品 .1313 图表图表 1111：盘古盘古 CVCV 大模型应用场景大模型应用场景 .1515 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 5 1 1 山能集团战略视角山能集团战略视角 1.1 1.1 山能山能巨头，迈向双万亿巨头，迈向双万亿 公司控股股东为山东能源集团（后续简称“山能或集团”），持股比例为 35.93%，集团是山东省委、省政府于 2020 年 7 月联合重组原兖矿集团、原山东能源集团，组建成立的大型能源企业集团。山能集团是以矿业、高端化工、电力、新能源新材料、高端装备制造、现代物流贸易为主导产业，2022 年中国 500 强位列 23 名，能源行业仅次于国网和“三桶油”，拥有兖矿能源、新矿集团、枣矿集团等 20 多个二级企业，境内外上市公司 9 家，从业人员 22.97 万人。20212021年实现营业收入年实现营业收入 75217521 亿元、利税总额亿元、利税总额 531531 亿元，年末资产总额亿元，年末资产总额 75147514 亿元。亿元。2022 年上半年，实现营业收入 4208 亿元、利税总额 412 亿元。近年来山东省大力提倡新旧动能转换，力促省属国资大力发展数字经济和新能源产业，梳理新动能转化标杆。目前看 2021 年山能集团营收和资产“双 7500 亿”，力争“十四五”末发展成为结构更优、韧性更强、后劲更足的资产营收“双万亿”企业集团。其中重要手段是“创其中重要手段是“创新驱动”，最有效的方法是数字化转型带来的产能和效率提升。新驱动”，最有效的方法是数字化转型带来的产能和效率提升。1.2 1.2 ICTICT 重要载体重要载体 云鼎科技在职员工总数为 700 余名，其中，技术人员占比 76%，本科及以上学历占比 80%。旗下拥有北斗天地股份有限公司（“北斗天地”）、山东兖矿国拓科技工程股份有限公司（“国拓科技”）、山东能源数字科技有限公司（“山能数科”）和工业互联网事业部等，遍布北京、西安、青岛、泰安等地市。图表图表1 1：云鼎科技子公司及主营业务分布云鼎科技子公司及主营业务分布 名称 主要业务 山东能源数字科技有限公司（山能数科）山能数科主营业务为 ERP 建设与运维。通过深化 ERP 系统功能应用，拓展应用范围及应用深度，为客户提供基于 ERP 系统的矿业解决方案及专业实施、运维服务。北斗天地股份有限公司（北斗天地）1.能源化工信息化建设北斗天地基于兖矿集团煤矿、化工领域的经验及人才储备，开展矿山、化工及相关领域的信息化建设服务，提供从规划、设计、集成到运行维护的特色信息化解决方案和闭环服务，拥有成熟的国内外大型信息化项目实施运行维护经验。2.“北斗 智网”。北斗天地以“北斗 ”为特色，融合自组网、高动态、DMR、5G、磁探测、UWB、惯导、无人机反制等技术，形成了以通导为脉络，以北斗智网通信导航融合系统、高动态接收机、公共位置服务平台、超导磁探测系统、无人采矿惯导平台、矿井辅助运输平台等业内领先产品的特色业务模式。山东兖矿国拓科技工公司依靠兖矿集团良好的企业形象，雄厚的资金实力、强大的技术 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 6 程股份有限公司（国拓科技）研发和技术服务能力，主要从事化工技术开发、技术服务、技术转让、化工设备及配件销售、化工工程勘察、设计、施工等业务。天津德通电气股份有限公司（德通电气）目前已经形成以工业自动化集成为基础、以智能化软件开发为龙头的六大产品体系，产品业务包括：DTCC 智选平台及网络建设、生产过程智能控制、智能选煤生产管理系统 DTiCMES、智能型高低压开关设备、智能识别和检测仪器、智能化咨询运维服务等。资料来源：公司公告，中邮证券研究所 1.3 1.3 助力助力数字化愿景数字化愿景 山东能源集团山东能源集团是山东省属国企是山东省属国企龙头企业龙头企业，山东省，山东省现现力推新旧动能转换标杆龙头，而云鼎力推新旧动能转换标杆龙头，而云鼎是山能集团旗下专注是山能集团旗下专注 ICTICT 和工业智能化应用上市主体。集团数字化转型迫切，基于此山能集和工业智能化应用上市主体。集团数字化转型迫切，基于此山能集团与华为展开深度的创新合作课题，具体团与华为展开深度的创新合作课题，具体落地由落地由云鼎科技来承担负责。目前云鼎存量业务是云鼎科技来承担负责。目前云鼎存量业务是围绕集团主业开展能源数字化和工业智能化，长远看要助力山东国资成功实现数字化转型，围绕集团主业开展能源数字化和工业智能化，长远看要助力山东国资成功实现数字化转型，打造新动能发展标杆。打造新动能发展标杆。请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 7 2 2 云鼎云鼎科技科技突破视角突破视角 转型成功：转型成功：云鼎科技前身是地矿股份，山能集团入主后剥离原有业务，全面发展 ICT 业务，目前旗下有山能数科（ERP 研发实施）、北斗天地（北斗业务）、国拓科技（煤炭信息化）、德通电气（工业自动化软件），逐步踏入正轨，已经成为煤炭信息化行业第二名。图表图表2 2：云鼎科技产业布局云鼎科技产业布局 资料来源：公司官网，中邮证券研究所 管理层有为：管理层有为：公司董事长刘健是集团副总；总经理刘波年仅 40 岁；CIO 王总历任华为技术有限公司无线部部长、解决方案总工。集团支持 管理层雄心壮志 技术具备华为基因，公司治理将更加完善。技术产品突破：技术产品突破：2022 年 10 月云鼎与华为达成战略合作，重点是（1）双方加强传统 ICT项目合作，均将对方视为优先合作伙伴均将对方视为优先合作伙伴。在山东能源集团有限公司体系内云鼎科技优先选择华为公司产品，华为公司优先选择云鼎科技作为经销商；（2）云鼎深度参与华为公司与山能深度参与华为公司与山能集团的创新合作课题集团的创新合作课题，参与创新过程并作为华为公司授权经销商承接合作项目并作为华为公司授权经销商承接合作项目，加速推动并保障课题落地。（3）双方加强在在矿鸿、人工智能、矿鸿、人工智能、ICTICT 基础设施、智慧园区、人才培养、智能基础设施、智慧园区、人才培养、智能穿戴、矿用终端、行业场景穿戴、矿用终端、行业场景 ICTICT 解决方案等领域解决方案等领域的合作，探讨新技术与新产品的商业模式，加快进入对方的生态体系加快进入对方的生态体系。从目前业务发展结果中看，预计公司从目前业务发展结果中看，预计公司已经已经深度参与华为煤炭军团和盘古大模型合作，后深度参与华为煤炭军团和盘古大模型合作，后期华为在期华为在 MetaERPMetaERP 推广中将发挥更大作用。推广中将发挥更大作用。2.1 2.1 联合研发联合研发盘古矿山大模型盘古矿山大模型 2022 年初公司承接山能集团与华为公司联合创新中心项目建设，与华为在人工智能、矿鸿智能终端、新一代井下网络、智慧园区等方面 16 项创新课题进行联合攻关。其中研发其中研发“盘盘古矿山大模型古矿山大模型”是重中之重是重中之重，它用海量矿山数据进行预训练，训练时间从 6 个月减少到 2 个月，快速生成不同应用，只需传统训练方式 10%数据，就能实现跨矿山复制模型泛化性大于 70%。盘古矿山大模型算法效率高、准确率高，精准识别皮带异常（跑偏、撕裂、异物等），准确率 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 8 超过 95%。盘古大模型技术底座支撑煤矿采、掘、机、运、通等主业务场景，可以实现能源行业多个场景的降本增效。图表图表3 3：华为华为矿山矿山 AIAI 大模大模型型 资料来源：华为官网，中邮证券研究所 公司以此为基础，不断精研自身产品，公司以此为基础，不断精研自身产品，深度参与华为盘古大模型研发，夯实自身的技术深度参与华为盘古大模型研发，夯实自身的技术底座，预计未来将继续参与底座，预计未来将继续参与 CVCV/科学大模型的研发和生态发展，从而去覆盖山能集团乃至山东科学大模型的研发和生态发展，从而去覆盖山能集团乃至山东其他制造业和的化工其他制造业和的化工/物流贸易板块。物流贸易板块。2.2 2.2 云鼎云鼎 AIAI 服务平台，效果改善显著服务平台，效果改善显著 2022 年 11 月云鼎科技自主研发的 AI 服务平台正式上线。AI 服务平台以人工智能识别算法为核心，融合物联网、大数据、云计算等新技术。AI 服务平台实现了从数据标注、模型训练、模型发布、模型部署到业务场景应用的全流程管控。以大模型为技术底座，提供一站式的模型训练工作流，以产线化、流水线的方式实现人工智能模型的柔性制造，以业务全流程管控为主线，设置集团侧和边缘侧多级灵活架构,实现边缘侧的业务应用与集团侧的统筹管理。与传统厂商 AI 平台相比，云鼎 AI 服务平台底层采用云鼎大模型算法及云边协同架构，提供多层次、开放的 API，广泛应用在煤矿生产、洗选管理、煤炭发运、电力巡检、设备健康、配煤优化等领域。请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 9 图表图表4 4：云鼎科技云鼎科技 AIAI 服务平台服务平台架构架构 资料来源：公司官网，中邮证券研究所 云鼎 AI 服务平台是以云鼎大模型算法为基础，实现了“算法 算力 平台”等软硬件一体化，可以极大降低推广成本。伴随华为向行业和地域纵深发展，云鼎产品有望推向全国。图表图表5 5：云鼎科技云鼎科技 AIAI 服务平台服务平台优势优势 资料来源：公司官网，中邮证券研究所 2.3 2.3 从矿鸿到鼎云工业互联网平台从矿鸿到鼎云工业互联网平台 2021 年 9 月 14 日华为正式发布“矿鸿操作系统”（Mine Harmony），并与山东能源集团展开深度业务合作，云鼎以此为契机发布鼎云工业互联网平台。请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 10 图表图表6 6：云云鼎科技鼎科技深度运用深度运用华为矿鸿为代表的产品华为矿鸿为代表的产品 资料来源：华为官网，中邮证券研究所 鼎云工业互联网平台深耕智能矿山建设，实现能源集团数据采集、数据治理及数据应用鼎云工业互联网平台深耕智能矿山建设，实现能源集团数据采集、数据治理及数据应用全链路服务，是承载能源集团数字化转型的重要基石。全链路服务，是承载能源集团数字化转型的重要基石。图表图表7 7：云鼎科技鼎云工业互联网平台云鼎科技鼎云工业互联网平台体系体系 资料来源：公司官网，中邮证券研究所 公司以互联网平台为载体，并不断积累数据，未来将实现数据价值的有效挖掘。公司以互联网平台为载体，并不断积累数据，未来将实现数据价值的有效挖掘。请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 11 图表图表8 8：云鼎科技鼎云工业互联网平台云鼎科技鼎云工业互联网平台大数据治理体系大数据治理体系 资料来源：公司官网，中邮证券研究所 数据平台实现多源异构数据的全面介入、存储、治理服务，极大提升数据的综合应用能力，将海量数据转化为高质量数据资产，为上层应用提供更具个性化和智能化的服务。目前已经接入 42 对矿井数据，每日增量 2875余万条，预计到 2023 年7月份实现75对矿井完全接入支撑，预计日增数据达到 5133 万条数据，至年底接入 187 亿数据、存储达到 63T(含波形文件)支撑能力，日调度任务个数 900 余个，数据接入速度 109M/s，每秒计算能力超过 40 万条，支撑整个能源集团数据湖仓一体化建设。图表图表9 9：云鼎科技鼎云工业互联网平台云鼎科技鼎云工业互联网平台 资料来源：公司官网，中邮证券研究所 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 12 2.4 2.4 从从 SAPSAP 到到 MetaERPMetaERP 的替代推演的替代推演 山东能源集团覆盖矿业，高端化工等产业，ERP 软件产品是不可或缺的。集团在 2021 年已经实现“双 7500 亿”，并计划在十四五期末两大指标突破双万亿。以山能集团为代表的的山东省工业制造业企业，是国产 ERP 落地的良好场景。未来中期看伴随业务场景活动将不断增加，ERP 等信息化支出也将随之增加，我们预计到我们预计到 20252025 年期间年期间 ERPERP单项信息化投入或将超过单项信息化投入或将超过数数亿元。亿元。云鼎子公司山能数科承担 SAP 软件的研发和实施。公司提供数字化创新服务、套装软件咨询及实施、IT 开发管理三大核心解决方案和服务。集团业务扩张将给山能数科提供扎实的基本盘。云鼎科技山能数科建立起全新的计划管理平台，历时 8 个月，完成所有单位上线实施，助力能源集团数字化、信息化转型再提速。全新的计划管理平台实行能源集团、二级公司和基层单位（矿、厂、处）三级计划统计管理模式，通过搭建集团全口径、全业务、全周期的管理平台，全面提高计划统计管理整体信息化管理水平。平台涵盖业务类型 17 项，系统流程 20 项，模板与表单 273 项，依托云服务模式，预计覆盖集团 763 家基层单位，支持省内外单位共计1300 余名用户线上操作。目前看，山能集团目前看，山能集团 ERPERP 等系统仍以等系统仍以 SAPSAP 海外产品为主，我们预计海外产品为主，我们预计华为华为 MetaERPMetaERP 将在四月将在四月份宣誓，未来重点推广领域是价值属性巨大的国企央企客户，国产替代给云鼎科技又一次成份宣誓，未来重点推广领域是价值属性巨大的国企央企客户，国产替代给云鼎科技又一次成长机会。长机会。请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 13 3 3 华为生态发展视角华为生态发展视角 华为整体战略是向高价值的华为整体战略是向高价值的 B B 端和端和 G G 端客户输出技术产品，扶持生态系统发展，与山东端客户输出技术产品，扶持生态系统发展，与山东能源集团深度合作便是基于此。能源集团深度合作便是基于此。梳理云鼎科技与华为深度合作，可以看见云鼎已经与华为产业链形成良性互动。梳理云鼎科技与华为深度合作，可以看见云鼎已经与华为产业链形成良性互动。（1）2022 年初，联合研发盘古矿山大模型；（2）2022 年 10 月，双方达成战略合作；（3）2023 年 2 月，北斗天地公司作为华为终端核心合作伙伴之一，受邀出席华为终端商用政企合作伙伴大会，凭借行业领先技术实力及产品创新能力，荣获本届大会“创新奖”；（4）2023 年 2 月云鼎科技智慧电厂、智慧矿山场景解决方案在华为混合云 HCS 上通过了解决方案构建及测试，完成解决方案认证，获得华为认证级开发伙伴证书。目前两项解决方案已在能源行业广泛部署，具有极高的行业通用性及推广可行性。为提升产品解决方案的构建能力，云鼎科技加入华为中国区政企解决方案合作伙伴计划，通过方案申请、初审、设计、部署测试等流程严格审核，完成两大场景、五项产品解决方案的认证工作，打造智慧光伏运维平台、智慧工程管控系统、云鼎 AI 服务平台、智慧矿山电子封条、生产技术资料管理系统五项产品的华为&云鼎联合解决方案。目前，智慧电厂解决方案已在盛鲁能化电力新能源、鄂尔多斯新能源、灵台新能源、阿拉善新能源公司落地实施，智慧矿山解决方案赋能 70 余家煤矿企业实现端到端智能化转型。图表图表1010：华为技术产品华为技术产品 分类分类 产品产品 简介简介 联接 运营商网络 打造面向未来的极简、弹性和智能最佳网络。企业网络 华为企业网络致力于“打造无处不在的智能 IP 联接”，基于AirEngine Wi-Fi 6、CloudEngine 交换机、NetEngine 路由器、HiSecEngine 网络安全等“四大引擎”企业网络产品，推出端到端智能云网解决方案，覆盖云园区网络、云广域网络、超融合数据中心网络、网络安全四大应用场景，助力千行百业数字化转型。企业光网络 华为智简全光网战略，通过打造智能、极简、超宽、无处不在的下一代全光网络，为每个人、每个家庭、每个组织带来极致的业务体验。基于该战略，面向全光工业网、全光承载、全光感知、全光数据中心、全光园区几大场景，聚集光传送、光接入、光终端三大系列产品进行持续性创新，以引领全球光产业的发展。企业无线 ICT 已经成为行业数字化转型的关键，一个无处不在的可靠连接是 ICT 建设的基础。企业无线面向政府，交通和能源等行业，通过提供专业的移动通信网络（4G/5G 基站、微波、核心网等产品），帮助行业客户快速搭建一个支撑行业生产系统的端到端、高可靠、高速数据通道，加快企业的数字化转型进程。其中，面向行业的 4G/5G 网络（行业无线）帮助客户建 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 14 立起无处不在的专用移动连接；面向政企的微波传输网络（企业微波）帮助客户在光纤难以到达的站点之间提供大数据传输通道；核心网连接政企跨区域的移动网络，并提供与生产应用系统的移动数据互通能力、与办公电话系统的话音互通能力。计算 鲲鹏计算 鲲鹏通用计算平台提供基于鲲鹏处理器的 TaiShan 服务器、鲲鹏主板及开发套件。硬件厂商可以基于鲲鹏主板发展自有品牌的产品和解决方案；软件厂商基于 openEuler 开源 OS 以及配套的数据库、中间件等平台软件发展应用软件和服务；鲲鹏开发套件可帮助开发者加速应用迁移和算力升级。鲲鹏通用计算平台适配各行业多样性计算、绿色计算需求，致力于打造最强算力平台。昇腾 AI 计算 基于华为昇腾系列（HUAWEI Ascend）AI 处理器和基础软件构建 Atlas 人工智能计算解决方案，包括 Atlas 系列模块、板卡、小站、服务器、集群等丰富的产品形态，打造面向“端、边、云”的全场景 AI 基础设施方案，覆盖深度学习领域推理和训练全流程。数据存储 数字经济时代，数据作为新型的生产要素，已经成为基础性资源和战略性资源，我们正在迎来 YB 数据时代，数据应用蓬勃发展，需要有强大、安全、可靠的数据设施保驾护航。秉承“以数据为中心，构建多样化数据应用可靠存储底座”的理念，华为 OceanStor 存储相信，在不确定性、复杂性、多元性激增的时代，需要以应需而变的海纳能力，才能融合和识别难以被洞察的数据需求，释放数据智慧，基于融合广泛、灵活应变、绿色环保、面向未来的能力，助力客户从容应对数字时代的多重挑战，实现利于当下、着眼未来的永续发展。云 华为云 华为云持续构建“全球一张网“，为全球客户提供包括基础设施、AI、媒体、数据等在内的海量高质量云服务。目前华为云已布局全球 29 个区域、78 个可用区，覆盖 170 多个国家和地区。安全、可信、持续创新的产品与服务。满足不同阶段业务需求，加速企业数字化转型。服务 运营商服务 华为服务与软件为全球运营商提供行业领先、安全可靠的全流程解决方案，涵盖网络规划、建设、运维、优化和业务运营领域。过去 30 多年，华为逐步成为全球领先的服务与软件解决方案供应商，交付能力和资源遍布全球；面向未来，华为持续加大投入，做运营商值得信赖的战略合作伙伴，助力运营商数字化转型和商业成功。政企服务 为政企客户提供数字化转型全生命周期服务。上云服务 提供全场景专业服务产品和解决方案，帮助企业上好云、用好云、管好云，联合伙伴为企业提供卓越的服务体验。资料来源：华为官网、中邮证券研究所 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 15 云鼎科技与华为技术产品和组织架构战略均有合作和重叠，云鼎科技与华为技术产品和组织架构战略均有合作和重叠，尤其尤其盘古矿山大模型便是基盘古矿山大模型便是基于华为于华为 CVCV 大模型演化而来，并且山东能源集团覆盖矿山、工业、化工、电厂和新能源，均有大模型演化而来，并且山东能源集团覆盖矿山、工业、化工、电厂和新能源，均有机会与华为机会与华为 CVCV 大模型和科学计算大模型发生业务联系。大模型和科学计算大模型发生业务联系。图表图表1111：盘古盘古 CVCV 大模型应用场景大模型应用场景 资料来源：华为云官网，中邮证券研究所 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 16 4 4 盈利预测盈利预测 4.1 4.1 关键假设关键假设 （1）行业增速：工业互联网体系化发展取得显著成效，逐步成为国民经济增长的重要支撑。2021 年我国工业互联网核心产业规模达到 10749 亿元，增速为 18.1%。根据中国信通院预测,工业互联网产业规模预计 2025 年破2 万亿,年均增速近 19%。智慧矿山正处于政策红利期，市场规模不断扩大。（2）毛利率持续提升：公司转型成功后逐步踏入正轨，随着公司平台化产品增多，将带动毛利率提升。预计 2022-2024 年毛利率为 36.34%/37.64%/38.13%。（3）在 2023-2024 年，国企央企加速国产 ERP 替代进程。（4）华为等巨头，将大模型不断推向 B 端行业应用，AI 价值量得到明显提升。4.2 4.2 投资建议投资建议 我 们 预 测 公 司 2022-2024 年 营 收 分 别 为 6.91/10.02/15.03 亿 元，同 比 增 速36.00%/45.00%/50.00%，归母净利润分别为 0.25/0.90/1.62 亿元，同比增速分别为41.21%/263.90%/79.47%。公司背靠山能集团，深度参与盘古矿山大模型，加入融入华为生态圈。在 AI 服务平台领域不断取得突破，同时有望面临华为 MetaERP 带来的国央企高端 ERP 国产替代机遇。在未来华为盘古大模型迭代/HM OS 行业渗透中都将充分受益，我们坚定看好公司的中长期发展愿景。首次覆盖给予“买入”评级。5 5 风险提示风险提示 技术发展不及预期的风险；商业落地不及预期的风险；市场竞争加剧风险。请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 17 财务报表和主要财务比率财务报表和主要财务比率 财务报表财务报表(百万元百万元)2021A 2022E 2023E 2024E 主要财务比率主要财务比率 2021A 2022E 2023E 2024E 利润表利润表 成长能力成长能力 营业收入营业收入 508.21 691.16 1,002.18 1,503.27 营业收入-76.516.00E.00P.00%营业成本 284.65 440.00 625.00 930.00 营业利润-62.83.020.10U.91%税金及附加 5.41 8.29 7.02 9.77 归属于母公司净利-76.17A.21&3.90y.47%销售费用 9.83 20.73 15.03 24.05 获利能力获利能力 管理费用 101.15 87.78 100.22 157.84 毛利率 43.996.347.648.13%研发费用 32.04 48.38 50.11 75.16 净利率 3.46%3.60%9.02.80%财务费用 3.66 5.00 5.00 5.00 ROE 3.49%4.76.77 .96%资产减值损失-7.16 0.00 0.00 0.00 ROIC 6.18.78A.85W.34%营业利润营业利润 49.33 92.74 231.95 361.63 偿债能力偿债能力 营业外收入 0.03 0.00 0.00 0.00 资产负债率 49.96).39B.785.14%营业外支出 0.05 0.00 0.00 0.00 流动比率 1.48 2.32 1.88 2.39 利润总额利润总额 49.31 92.74 231.95 361.63 营运能力营运能力 所得税 14.42 21.75 58.06 91.15 应收账款周转率 1.47 1.96 1.77 1.83 净利润净利润 34.89 71.00 173.89 270.48 存货周转率 3.40 4.05 3.70 3.87 归母净利润归母净利润 17.60 24.85 90.42 162.29 总资产周转率 0.46 0.65 0.83 0.95 每股收益（元）每股收益（元）0.03 0.04 0.14 0.24 每股指标（元）每股指标（元）资产负债表资产负债表 每股收益 0.03 0.04 0.14 0.24 货币资金 123.36 -54.13 -333.02 -250.14 每股净资产 0.76 0.79 0.92 1.17 交易性金融资产 20.38 20.38 20.38 20.38 估值比率估值比率 应收票据及应收账 388.23 321.01 817.69 835.22 PE 353.29 250.20 68.75 38.31 预付款项 20.54 21.72 35.60 50.62 PB 12.33 11.92 10.16 8.03 存货 195.37 145.71 395.77 381.68 流动资产合计流动资产合计 881.56 632.35 1,169.48 1,427.34 现金流量表现金流量表 固定资产 187.41 174.13 160.85 147.57 净利润 34.89 71.00 173.89 270.48 在建工程 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 折旧和摊销 10.39 13.28 13.28 13.28 无形资产 11.68 14.68 14.68 14.68 营运资本变动-91.75 52.54 -271.89 29.84 非流动资产合计非流动资产合计 317.79 307.51 294.23 280.94 其他 27.71 -4.86 -25.09 -45.16 资产总计资产总计 1,199.34 939.86 1,463.71 1,708.28 经营活动现金流净经营活动现金流净-18.75 131.95 -109.81 268.44 短期借款 40.01 -263.76 -457.94 -688.65 资本开支-3.98 -2.98 0.04 0.06 应付票据及应付账 326.25 289.87 681.78 716.18 其他-32.30 4.84 25.05 45.10 其他流动负债 229.56 246.77 398.99 569.41 投资活动现金流净投资活动现金流净-36.28 1.86 25.09 45.16 流动负债合计流动负债合计 595.83 272.87 622.83 596.93 股权融资 7.49 -7.53 0.00 0.00 其他 3.39 3.39 3.39 3.39 债务融资-5.00 -303.78 -194.18 -230.71 非流动负债合计非流动负债合计 3.39 3.39 3.39 3.39 其他-7.87 0.00 0.00 0.00 负债合计负债合计 599.22 276.26 626.22 600.32 筹资活动现金流净筹资活动现金流净-5.38 -311.30 -194.18 -230.71 股本 510.93 510.93 510.93 510.93 现金及现金等价物净增现金及现金等价物净增-60.42 -177.49 -278.90 82.88 资本公积金 522.16 514.64 514.64 514.64 未分配利润-531.24 -510.12 -433.26 -295.32 少数股东权益 95.85 142.00 225.46 333.66 其他 2.42 6.15 19.72 44.06 所有者权益合计所有者权益合计 600.13 663.59 837.49 1,107.96 负债和所有者权益负债和所有者权益 1,199.34 939.86 1,463.71 1,708.28 资料来源：公司公告，中邮证券研究所 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 18 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元宇宙行业深度：元宇宙关键入口VR、AR光学+显示方案带来新机遇-230327（47页）.pdf

请仔细阅读本报告末页声明 Page 1/47 Table_Main 元宇宙行业深度元宇宙行业深度：元宇宙关键入口元宇宙关键入口，VR/AR 光学光学 显示方案带来新机遇显示方案带来新机遇 电子电子 评级：评级：看好看好 日期：日期：2023.03.27 分析师分析师 王少南王少南 登记编码：S0950521040001 ：0755-23375522 ： 联系人联系人 金凯笛金凯笛 ：021-61097712 ： 行业行业表现表现 2023/3/27 资料来源：Wind，聚源 相关研究相关研究 2023 年电子行业投资策略：半导体国产替代持续加速，汽车电子迎来新机遇(2023/1/6)半导体材料行业深度：晶圆厂迎扩产潮，大国利剑国产替代前景可期(2022/9/9)汽车智能化 网联化深度：自动驾驶逐步升级，摄像头 激光雷达星辰大海(2022/6/29)汽车电动化深度：新能源车销量 渗透率双升，IGBT 与 SiC大放异彩(2022/5/13)2022 年电子行业投资策略：5G 渗透率持续提升，半导体供应链安全大势所趋(2021/12/9)PCB 行业深度：通讯/消费电子/汽车齐发力，FPC替代传统线束前景可期(2021/12/7)半导体设备行业深度：新一轮景气周期，大国重器替代正当时(2021/8/16)2021 年电子行业中期策略：5G ARVR引领新成长，国产替代奏响主旋律(2021/8/6)需求错配 供给瓶颈 资源倾斜，汽车缺芯有望 2021Q2 开始改善(2021/5/12)报告要点报告要点 全球全球 VR/AR 设备出货量未来设备出货量未来数年数年有望保持有望保持 30%以上增速以上增速。根据 IDC 数据，受宏观经济环境等因素影响，2022 年全球 VR/AR 设备出货量下降 20.9%至880 万台，其中 VR/AR 设备出货量分别为 853/27 万台。随着宏观经济预期修复，IDC 预计 2023 年全球 VR/AR 设备出货量有望同比增长 31.5%，并且未来数年增速有望保持在 30%以上，预计 2026 年出货量将达到 3510 万台。VR/AR 行业集中度均较高行业集中度均较高。根据 IDC 数据，2022 年 VR 头显市场格局方面，Meta 占比接近 80%，PICO 占比 10%，DPVR、HTC 和爱奇艺分列 3-5 位。AR 眼镜方面，根据 IDC 数据，2022 年全球 AR 眼镜出货量 Top5 分别为：Nreal/微软/Rokid/TCL（雷鸟创新）/爱普生，出货量分别为 9.8/3.5/3/近 3/1.3万台，合计近 20.6 万台；市占率分别为 36.3%/13.0%/11.1%/近 11.1%/4.8%，合计占比近 76.3%。VR：Pancake 商用趋势确定，商用趋势确定，Fast-LCD 屏幕屏幕成主流，硅基成主流，硅基 OLED 未来可未来可期期。现阶段 VR 头显的主流光学方案包括菲涅尔透镜和 Pancake。因为轻薄化需求，Pancake 方案正在逐步替代菲涅尔透镜，由于光机工作原理不同，菲涅尔透镜采用平行光路方案，Pancake 则通过折叠光路来减小光路系统空间的物理距离，缩小厚度，根据 PICO 官方数据，PICO 4 头盔采用 Pancake方案，前端厚度为 35.8mm，比上一代产品减小 38.8%，重量减小 26.2%，优势明显。此外 Pancake 成像质量更好，还支持屈光度调节，商用趋势确定，但是仍然存在光效低、鬼影、FOV 小、成本高等痛点，需要进一步升级改进。在显示方面，综合分辨率和响应速度的要求，Fast-LCD 已成为市场主流方案，还可以增加 Mini LED 背光解决显示器漏光等问题。而在性能层面更有优势的硅基 OLED，由于配套驱动芯片技术不够成熟、良率偏低等问题，整体成本仍然偏高，苹果2023 年MR设备有望采用硅基OLED，将有利于推动硅基 OLED渗透率提升。AR：光波导光波导和和 Micro LED 未来有望成为未来有望成为 AR 眼镜眼镜主流主流光学光学 显示方案显示方案。AR眼镜光学成像系统主要有离轴反射、棱镜、自由曲面、Birdbath 和光波导。目前使用较多的方案为自由曲面、Birdbath 和光波导，从性能角度对比，光波导在镜片厚度、视场角、透光度、产品尺寸等方面优势明显，技术壁垒最高，未来随着光波导技术更加成熟、工艺流程更加标准化、高效化，成本进一步降低，渗透率有望进一步提升。显示方面目前主要为硅基 OLED 屏幕，但是由于亮度、寿命等问题，Micro LED 也一直是产业界追逐的方向，其优势包括功耗低、亮度高、响应速度快、寿命长等，适合搭配光波导，但是由于工艺技术难度高、外延成本较高、巨量转移的速度和良率还有待提升，短期内还难以替代硅基 OLED，但是苹果等国际巨头在该领域已经布局多年，未来随着 Micro LED 技术更加成熟、成本降低，有望逐步替代硅基 OLED。投资建议投资建议：我们认为，随着用户对元宇宙接受度提高，同时技术升级、成本下降将促进 VR/AR 出货量进一步提升，带动行业驶入快车道，相关主流技术方案厂商有望迈入高速成长期。建议关注：三利谱、京东方 A、歌尔股份。风险提示：风险提示：1、宏观经济复苏、下游需求不及预期；2、技术研发、产品升级不及预期；3、行业竞争加剧。-23%-17%-10%-4%3%9 22/42022/72022/102023/1电子上证综指深证成指沪深300 证券研究报告|行业深度 请仔细阅读本报告末页声明 Page 2/47 Table_Page 电子电子 2023 年 3 月 27 日 内容目录内容目录 1.元宇宙构建数字化时空，产业链广覆盖.5 2.VR/AR 设备是元宇宙重要入口，未来数年有望保持 30%以上增长.10 3.VR 光学 显示方案多样，产业逐渐形成共识.16 3.1 VR 光学：Pancake 减薄效果好，商用趋势确定.16 3.2 VR 显示：Fast-LCD 已成为主流选择，硅基 OLED 有望被苹果采用.22 4.AR 实现显示 虚拟世界融合，中短期内一体式/分体式将共存.25 4.1 AR 光学：光波导性能优势明显，有望引领未来.26 4.2 AR 显示：硅基 OLED 占据主导，Micro LED 未来可期.30 5.VR/AR 产品百花齐放，海内外供应商齐助阵.32 5.1 2022 年多款 VR/AR 产品发布，光学 显示方案路径逐步清晰化.32 5.2 VR 头显拆解及供应商梳理.35 5.3 AR 眼镜拆解及供应商梳理.40 6.投资建议.42 6.1 投资观点.42 6.2 建议关注.43 6.2.1 三利谱（002876.SZ）.44 6.2.2 京东方 A（000725.SZ）.44 6.2.3 歌尔股份（002241.SZ）.44 7.风险提示.45 图表目录图表目录 图表 1：元宇宙概念.5 图表 2：元宇宙世界.5 图表 3：元宇宙发展历史.5 图表 4：元宇宙进化图谱.6 图表 5：元宇宙产业链.6 图表 6：元宇宙产业链国外重点企业.7 图表 7：元宇宙 7 层要素.7 图表 8：元宇宙六大核心技术.8 图表 9：元宇宙四大核心特征.8 图表 10：元宇宙沉浸感交互要求.9 图表 11：2022 年技术成熟度曲线.9 图表 12：VR 游戏.10 图表 13：索尼 PlayStation VR2.10 图表 14：AR 应用.10 图表 15：Google Glass Enterprise Edition 2.10 图表 16：MR 场景.11 oOpOZVcVcWbZuY9YMB7N8Q6MnPpPpNmPeRnNpMiNoMxP9PmNqQvPrQpNvPpMrM 请仔细阅读本报告末页声明 Page 3/47 Table_Page 电子电子 2023 年 3 月 27 日 图表 17：微软 HoloLens 2.11 图表 18：XR 范围.11 图表 19：XR 场景.11 图表 20：全球 VR/AR 产业链主要国家/地区.12 图表 21：XR 产业链.12 图表 22：XR 五大关键技术.13 图表 23：VR/AR 发展历程.13 图表 24：全球 VR 出货量（万台）.14 图表 25：全球 AR 出货量（万台）.14 图表 26：全球 VR 设备市场格局（按出货量分）.14 图表 27：2022 年全球 VR 设备市场格局.14 图表 28：2022 年全球 AR 眼镜出货量 Top5 市占率.15 图表 29：2022 年中国 VR/AR 出货量（万台）.15 图表 30：2022 年中国 AR 眼镜不同价格出货占比（美元）.15 图表 31：2022 年中国市场独立 VR 头显 Top5 市占率.16 图表 32：2022 年中国消费级 AR 眼镜主要线上平台销量格局.16 图表 33：VR 光学方案.16 图表 34：VR 光学发展历程.17 图表 35：球面透镜.17 图表 36：非球面透镜.17 图表 37：使用球面透镜时像差的产生（左）和使用非球面透镜时的校正（右）.18 图表 38：球面透镜 VS 非球面透镜.18 图表 39：菲涅尔透镜.19 图表 40：菲涅尔透镜与普通透镜聚光对比.19 图表 41：菲涅尔透镜轮廓.19 图表 42：平凸透镜和菲涅尔透镜的侧面轮廓对比.19 图表 43：菲涅尔与 Pancake 厚度对比.20 图表 44：PICO 4 比 PICO Neo3 前端重量及厚度均有所减小.20 图表 45：菲涅尔光学和 Pancake 光路方案对比.20 图表 46：Pancake 折叠光路原理.20 图表 47：PICO 4 Pancake 光学透镜.20 图表 48：Pancake 与菲涅尔透镜性能对比.21 图表 49：VR 光学方案对比.22 图表 50：LCD 结构.23 图表 51：OLED 结构.23 图表 52：Micro LED 结构.23 图表 53：巨量转移技术.23 图表 54：Micro OLED 结构.24 图表 55：VR 产业链相关公司.25 图表 56：VR 与 AR 近眼显示原理.25 图表 57：不同形态的 AR 整机.26 图表 58：棱镜/自由曲面/Birdbath 光学系统原理.27 图表 59：AR 光波导全反射机制示意图.27 图表 60：基于光波导的 AR 外观原理示意图.27 图表 61：常见光波导及光栅结构.28 图表 62：几何光波导/表面浮雕光栅波导/全息体光栅波导对比.28 图表 63：采用不同光学方案的 AR 眼镜产品.29 请仔细阅读本报告末页声明 Page 4/47 Table_Page 电子电子 2023 年 3 月 27 日 图表 64：2026 年不同价位段消费级 AR 设备出货量占比.29 图表 65：目前主流 AR 光学方案对比.30 图表 66：AR 设备主流显示技术优缺点对比.31 图表 67：AR 设备主流显示技术参数对比.31 图表 68：AR 产业链相关公司.32 图表 69：2022 年 VR 设备统计.33 图表 70：2022 年 AR 设备统计.33 图表 71：高通对 VR/AR 设备形态预判.34 图表 72：高通无线 AR 智能眼镜参考设计.34 图表 73：高通骁龙 AR2 Gen1.35 图表 74：搭载骁龙 AR2 Gen1 的 AR 头显原型机.35 图表 75：YVR 2 VR 一体机爆炸图.35 图表 76：Meta Quest Pro 沉浸式体验.36 图表 77：Meta Quest Pro.36 图表 78：Meta Quest Pro 硬件 BOM成本.36 图表 79：Meta Quest Pro 硬件成本构成（按品类）.37 图表 80：Meta Quest Pro 硬件成本构成（按国家）.37 图表 81：Meta Quest Pro 核心硬件及供应商.37 图表 82：PICO 4 彩色透视.38 图表 83：PICO 4.38 图表 84：PICO 4 硬件 BOM成本（8G 128G 版本）.39 图表 85：PICO 4 硬件成本构成（按品类）.39 图表 86：PICO 4 硬件成本构成（按国家）.39 图表 87：PICO 4 核心硬件及供应商.40 图表 88：一体式 AR 眼镜零部件.41 图表 89：分体式 AR 眼镜模组及 BOM成本占比.41 图表 90：华为 Vision Glass 观影.41 图表 91：华为 Vision Glass.41 图表 92：华为 Vision Glass 硬件 BOM成本.42 图表 93：华为 Vision Glass 硬件成本构成（按品类）.42 图表 94：华为 Vision Glass 硬件成本构成（按国家）.42 请仔细阅读本报告末页声明 Page 5/47 Table_Page 电子电子 2023 年 3 月 27 日 1.元宇宙元宇宙构建构建数字化时空数字化时空，产业链产业链广广覆盖覆盖 元宇宙的英文是 Metaverse，Metaverse=Meta（超越） Universe（宇宙），即超越现实的虚拟宇宙。“元宇宙”概念是在美国作家尼尔斯蒂芬森 1992 年的科幻小说 雪崩中首次提出，书中讲述了现实人通过 VR 设备与虚拟人共同生活在一个虚拟世界的故事，这个虚拟世界就是 Metaverse。2021 年 3 月，美国 Roblox 公司首次将“元宇宙”写进招股说明书，2021 年 10月，Facebook 改名为 Meta 将元宇宙推至风口，引发了全球关注和讨论，2021 年也被称为元宇宙元年。元宇宙是人类运用数字技术构建的，由现实世界映射或超越现实世界，可与现实世界交互的虚拟世界，具备新型社会体系的数字生活空间。它以信息基础设施为载体，以虚拟现实/增强现实/混合现实（VR/AR/MR/XR）为核心技术支撑，以数据为基础性战略资源，构建数字化时空域。图表 1：元宇宙概念 图表 2：元宇宙世界 资料来源：Sky Post，五矿证券研究所 资料来源：Meta，五矿证券研究所 回首元宇宙发展历史，1931-1992 年是概念孕育期，在一些书籍信件中被开始提及；1992-2018 年是形态塑造期，在一些影视游戏作品中，元宇宙的形象得以塑造；2021 年之后，随着 Facebook 改名 Meta，中国首个元宇宙行业协会成立，行业步入快速增长期。图表 3：元宇宙发展历史 资料来源：亿欧，五矿证券研究所 请仔细阅读本报告末页声明 Page 6/47 Table_Page 电子电子 2023 年 3 月 27 日 展望元宇宙发展趋势，根据 Gartner 数据，2022 年前后，随着 Web3.0 应用市场和技术发展，元宇宙开始兴起；2025 年，在新兴元宇宙的综合研究取得进步的同时，元宇宙迈入更高级；2029 年，在新的虚拟经济下，元宇宙将向互操作、沉浸式体验的新方向发展，逐步走向成熟。图表 4：元宇宙进化图谱 资料来源：Gartner，五矿证券研究所 “元宇宙”产业链方面可以分为基础设施层、核心层和应用服务层。其中基础设施层主要包括通信网络/算力/新技术基础设施等，具体有 5G/6G 网络、数据中心、云计算、区块链、人工智能等技术；核心层主要包括终端入口/时空生成/交互体验等，具体有 VR/AR/MR/XR 终端产品、操作系统、数字孪生、脑机接口等技术；应用服务层主要包括消费端/行业端/政府端应用服务等，具体有数字人、数字货币、虚拟社交/办公/主播/游戏/医疗/教育、NFT、城市规划等应用。整个“元宇宙”产业链涉及的行业非常广泛，有望对相关行业带来新的变革和发展机遇。图表 5：元宇宙产业链 资料来源：元宇宙产业链生态白皮书，五矿证券研究所 根据赛迪智库数据，在元宇宙产业链中，不论是基础设施层、核心层还是应用服务层，众多国外企业已经有所布局，包括微软、谷歌、苹果、三星、英伟达、Meta、亚马逊、IBM 等。请仔细阅读本报告末页声明 Page 7/47 Table_Page 电子电子 2023 年 3 月 27 日 图表 6：元宇宙产业链国外重点企业 产业链环节 地区 企业 基础设施层 通信网络基础设施 国外 Verizon、AT&T、T-Mobile、Sprint、三星、LG、KT、SK电讯、西门子、爱立信、亚马逊、ARM、IBM、博世、思科、通用电气、谷歌、英特尔、微软 算力基础设施 国外 亚马逊、微软、戴尔、ClearBlade、思科、谷歌、IBM、英特尔、微软、三星、SAP 新技术基础设施 国外 亚马逊、微软、谷歌、IBM、Kamatera、Serverspace、Linode 核心层 终端入口 国外 谷歌、苹果、三星、微软、Meta、Magic-Leap、德州仪器、高通 时空生成 国外 Unity、英伟达、Autodesk，Epic Games、罗布乐思 交互体验 国外 Thalmic Labs、Virtuix、Cyberith、产业平台 国外 Meta、微软、谷歌、英伟达 应用服务层 消费端应用服务 国外 谷歌、索尼、Epic Games、EA、世嘉、Valve、Jaunt 行业端应用服务 国外 Meta、Valve、IBM、BBC、Youtube、Discovery VR 政府端应用服务 国外 谷歌、亚马逊、微软 资料来源：赛迪智库，元宇宙产业链生态白皮书，五矿证券研究所 整个元宇宙共包含 7 层要素，每层要素则对应不同的技术和应用，分别如下：1）基础设施：5G、WiFi 6、云计算、芯片等；2）人机交互：可穿戴设备、感知交互；3）去中心化：边缘计算、区块链等；4）空间计算：开发引擎、XR 等；5）创作者经济：设计工具、商业交易等；6）发现：广告网络、社交等；7）体验：游戏、电影、购物、运动等。图表 7：元宇宙 7 层要素 资料来源：Jon Radoff，德勤，五矿证券研究所 元宇宙在发展过程中，有 6 大核心技术作为支撑，总结为 BIGANT。拆开来看 分别是B=Blockchain，区块链技术；I=Interactivity，交互技术；G=Game，电子游戏技术；A=AI，人工智能技术；N=Network，智能网络技术；I=Internet of things，物联网技术。在 6 大支撑 请仔细阅读本报告末页声明 Page 8/47 Table_Page 电子电子 2023 年 3 月 27 日 技术下，有分别有多个细分技术作为支撑，大量的新技术为元宇宙的发展和实现提供了重要保障。图表 8：元宇宙六大核心技术 资料来源：元宇宙之家，五矿证券研究所 元宇宙共包括 4 大核心特征，分别是沉浸式体验、虚拟身份、虚拟经济和虚拟社会治理，只有满足了所有 4 大核心特征的，才算是一个完整的自维持、自发展、自演进的元宇宙。图表 9：元宇宙四大核心特征 资料来源：Fastdata，五矿证券研究所 从用户角度出发，元宇宙的体验好坏很大程度上在于沉浸感受，元宇宙沉浸式交互技术目前能够实现部分沉浸，可以通过虚拟移动、运动轨迹、沉浸声场等方式实现 4K/8K 级别的交互，请仔细阅读本报告末页声明 Page 9/47 Table_Page 电子电子 2023 年 3 月 27 日 算力依赖中心云和边缘云。未来无线接入、渲染方式、交互方式、端边云融合等技术突破将加速沉浸式交互解决方案的升级，交互方式将从手柄、手势、语音指令等升级为触觉反馈、脑机交互，下行带宽从 20Mbps升级到 4Gbps 以上，端到端时延从 40ms 以上降低至 8ms，沉浸感将从初级沉浸升级到部分沉浸，再到深度沉浸，最终实现完全沉浸，整体用户体验将实现质的飞跃。图表 10：元宇宙沉浸感交互要求 初级沉静 部分沉浸 深度沉浸 完全沉浸 无线接入 4G/WiFi 5G/R15 5G R16/R17 B5G/6G 渲染方式 本地渲染、云渲染 云渲染、异构渲染 实时光线追踪渲染、混合云渲染 深度学习渲染、光场渲染、混合渲染 交互支持 4G/WiFi 小型 GPU 5G 中大型 GPU 5G 中大型 GPU B5G/6G GPU 交互方式 手柄、手势指令、语音指令 虚拟移动、运动轨迹、沉浸声场 眼球追踪、语音交互、自然手势交互 触觉反馈、脑机交互 内容制作 2K/4K 4K/8K 8K/12K 16K/24K 上行带宽 5Mbps 20-200Mbps 200-800Mbps 800Mbps 下行带宽 20Mbps 100Mbps-1Gbps 1-4Gbps 4Gbps 端到端延时（总）40ms 30ms 13ms 8ms 网络架构：中心云 应用服务器、云渲染服务器 应用服务器、云渲染服务器 应用服务器、云渲染服务器 应用服务器、云渲染服务器 网络架构：边缘云 MEC边缘渲染、边缘服务 MEC边缘渲染、边缘服务 MEC边缘渲染、边缘服务 网络架构：其他 网络切片、5G QoS、自动化运维、主动拥塞控制 网络切片、5G QoS、云网协同、智能运维、应用为中心的拥塞控制 资料来源：亿欧，五矿证券研究所 根据 2022 年 Gartner 技术成熟度曲线，可以看到元宇宙仍处于创新触发期，10 年后将会步入稳定期。因此我们认为元宇宙将有望在近几年实现快速发展，新技术将不断升级迭代，新产品将不断推陈出新，行业有望迈入高景气时代。图表 11：2022 年技术成熟度曲线 资料来源：Gartner，五矿证券研究所 请仔细阅读本报告末页声明 Page 10/47 Table_Page 电子电子 2023 年 3 月 27 日 2.VR/AR 设备设备是元宇宙重要入口是元宇宙重要入口，未来数年未来数年有望保有望保持持 30%以以上上增增长长 根据元宇宙的构成要素，人机交互是探索元宇宙的入口，其中的关键技术包括虚拟现实、增强现实、混合现实和扩展现实（VR/AR/MR/XR），这些技术有望革命性地改变人们的交互方式，成为通往元宇宙的关键入口。虚拟现实（Virtual Reality）技术，是一种可以创建和体验虚拟世界的计算机仿真系统，它利用计算机生成一种模拟环境，是一种多源信息融合的、交互式的三维动态视景和实体行为的偶系统，使用户沉浸到该环境中。主要产品包括 Meta Quest Pro、PICO 4、索尼 PlayStation VR2、华为 VR Glass 等。图表 12：VR游戏 图表 13：索尼 PlayStation VR2 资料来源：PlayStation 官网，五矿证券研究所 资料来源：PlayStation 官网，五矿证券研究所 增强现实（Augmented Reality）技术，是一种实时地计算摄影机影像的位置及角度并加上相应图像、视频、3D 模型的技术，这种技术的目标是在屏幕上把虚拟世界套在现实世界并进行互动。随着随身电子产品 CPU 运算能力的提升，增强现实的用途将越来越广。主要产品包括 Google Glass，Magic Leap One 等。图表 14：AR应用 图表 15：Google Glass Enterprise Edition 2 资料来源：IKEA，五矿证券研究所 资料来源：Google 官网，五矿证券研究所 混合现实（Mixed Reality）技术，既包括增强现实和增强虚拟，它是虚拟现实技术的进一步 请仔细阅读本报告末页声明 Page 11/47 Table_Page 电子电子 2023 年 3 月 27 日 发展，该技术通过在虚拟环境中引入现实场景信息，在虚拟世界、现实世界和用户之间搭起一个交互反馈的信息回路，以增强用户体验的真实感。主要产品包括微软 HoloLens 2 等。图表 16：MR场景 图表 17：微软 HoloLens 2 资料来源：Augray，五矿证券研究所 资料来源：Microsoft，五矿证券研究所 扩展现实（Extrended Reality，XR）技术，是指通过计算机技术和可穿戴设备产生的一个真实与虚拟组合、可人机交互的环境，是 AR、VR、MR 等多种形式的统称。三者视觉交互技术融合，实现虚拟世界与现实世界之间无缝转换的“沉浸感”体验。图表 18：XR范围 图表 19：XR场景 资料来源：ThoughtWorks，五矿证券研究所 资料来源：Wowza，五矿证券研究所 全球 VR/AR 产业链主要国家和地区主要集中在美国、欧洲、中国和日本，其中美国以研发、技术创新和丰富的娱乐内容创作为主，欧洲以学术研究、高精度研发和多样化内容为主，中国和日本则在组装、硬件制造以及快速成长的研发方面见长。请仔细阅读本报告末页声明 Page 12/47 Table_Page 电子电子 2023 年 3 月 27 日 图表 20：全球 VR/AR产业链主要国家/地区 资料来源：ECORYS，五矿证券研究所 XR 产业链长，包括硬件、软件、内容、应用、5G、AI、区块链等，其中硬件部分包括核心器件、感知交互、终端、配套外设等，软件部分则包括系统软件、开发工具等，内容包括制作、分发，下游应用分为消费级和企业级，消费级包括影视、游戏、社交购物等，企业级应用则包括医疗、教育、工业制造等。图表 21：XR产业链 资料来源：德勤，五矿证券研究所 XR 的发展离不开关键技术的持续突破和创新。从端、管、云的架构来看，其中“端”包括以近眼显示技术和感知交互技术，近眼显示技术主要围绕光学系统和显示器件技术升级来进行，感知交互技术则强调与近眼显示、渲染计算、内容制作、网络传输等关键领域的技术协同。二者主要围绕硬件画质不清晰、视角场受限、头部晕眩等痛点，力求带来更优质的沉浸式体验。“管”主要指网络传输技术，利用 5G 网络速率高、延时低和带宽大的特点，推动 XR 应用快速落地。“云”端主要包含渲染计算和云端内容制作与分发。云化渲染聚焦云网边端协同渲染，能够解决实时海量数据处理的问题，实现硬件终端的轻量化与独立化。请仔细阅读本报告末页声明 Page 13/47 Table_Page 电子电子 2023 年 3 月 27 日 图表 22：XR五大关键技术 资料来源：德勤，五矿证券研究所 从谷歌 2012 年发布 AR 眼镜 Google Glass 至今，VR/AR 的发展先后历经了技术发展期、资本狂热期、低谷退潮期以及行业复苏期。2012 年谷歌发布 AR 眼镜 Google Glass 带领行业迈入技术发展期；2014 年 Facebook 收购 Oculus 则引起了产业界和资本界的普遍关注，索尼、HTC、三星等智能终端大厂纷纷加码布局 XR 产业；在 2017 年行业投资过热后，由于产品技术成熟度不够，用户使用体验不好，导致销量不理想，2018 年全球 VR 销量下滑至350 万台，AR 销量下滑至 26 万台，行业进入低谷期；随着 2019 年全球 5G 正式商用，VR/AR 被重新重视起来，2020 年初居家办公、教育需求激增，伴随着相关技术不断完善、应用逐渐丰富以及 Meta Quest Pro、PICO 4 等新品发布，行业迎来复苏，2023 年苹果有望发布 MR 设备，将有望引领 XR 终端设备开启新一轮消费电子热潮。图表 23：VR/AR发展历程 资料来源：德勤，五矿证券研究所 全球 VR/AR 市场出货量方面，由于过去 10 年行业周期波动较大，VR/AR 设备出货量也呈 请仔细阅读本报告末页声明 Page 14/47 Table_Page 电子电子 2023 年 3 月 27 日 现波动态势。根据 IDC 数据，2021 年全球 VR/AR 设备出货量合计 1123 万台，VR/AR 设备出货量分别为 1095/28 万台；受宏观经济环境和厂商提价等因素影响，2022 年全球 VR/AR设备出货量下降 20.9%至 880 万台，其中 VR/AR 设备出货量分别为 853/27 万台。随着宏观经济预期修复，IDC 预计 2023 年全球 VR/AR 设备出货量有望同比增长 31.5%，未来数年都将保持 30%以上增速，预计 2026 年出货量将达到 3510 万台。图表 24：全球 VR出货量（万台）图表 25：全球 AR出货量（万台）资料来源：IDC，五矿证券研究所 资料来源：IDC，五矿证券研究所 全球 VR 市场格局方面，根据 Counterpoint 数据，过去几个季度，全球主要 VR 厂商中，Meta始终保持行业领先地位，2021Q4 市占率为 80%，2022Q4 市占率为 81%，与此同时，PICO和 DPVR 分别占比 7%和 7%，三大厂商合计占比 95%，市场集中度高。根据 IDC 数据，2022 年全球 VR 头显市场格局方面，Meta 占比接近 80%，PICO 占比 10%，DPVR、HTC和爱奇艺分列 3-5 位。图表 26：全球 VR设备市场格局（按出货量分）图表 27：2022 年全球 VR设备市场格局 资料来源：Counterpoint，五矿证券研究所 资料来源：IDC，五矿证券研究所 全球 AR 市场格局方面，根据 IDC 数据，2022 年全球 AR 市场整体出货量 27 万台，其中消费级产品 17 万台，这也是消费级 AR 品牌出货量首次超越企业级 AR 品牌。2022 年全球 AR眼镜出货量Top5分别为：Nreal/微软/Rokid/TCL（雷鸟创新）/爱普生，出货量分别为9.8/3.5/3/近 3/1.3 万台，合计近 20.6 万台，市占率分别为 36.3%/13.0%/11.1%/近 11.1%/4.8%，合计占比近 76.3%。请仔细阅读本报告末页声明 Page 15/47 Table_Page 电子电子 2023 年 3 月 27 日 图表 28：2022 年全球 AR眼镜出货量Top5 市占率 资料来源：IDC，五矿证券研究所 中国 VR/AR 市场出货量方面，根据 IDC 数据，2022 年中国 VR/AR 设备出货 120.6 万台，其中 VR 110.3 万台，AR 10.3 万台。VR 头显中，独立 VR 首次突破 100 万台大关，达到101.4 万台，占 VR 占比为 91.9%；系留 VR 8.9 万台，占 VR 占比为 8.1%。根据 IDC 数据，2021Q4，中国市场 500 美元以下的产品出货占比仅为 2.7%，随着 2022 年AR 新品大量涌现，产品 ASP 大幅下滑，到了 2022Q4，500 美元以下的 AR 产品出货占比已经接近 90%。随着价格下探，我们认为将加快 AR 眼镜渗透率提升。图表 29：2022 年中国 VR/AR出货量（万台）图表 30：2022 年中国 AR眼镜不同价格出货占比（美元）资料来源：IDC，五矿证券研究所 资料来源：IDC，五矿证券研究所 中国 VR 市场格局方面，独立 VR 中，2022 年 Top 5 型号分别为 PICO Neo3/PICO 4/Nolo CM1/奇遇 Dream Pro/奇遇 Dream，出货量分别为 50.5/21.7/6.6/5.4/2.4 万台，合计 86.6 万台，在独立 VR 中市占率分别为 49.8%/21.4%/6.5%/5.3%/2.4%，合计占比 85.4%。中国 AR 市场格局方面，根据艾瑞咨询数据，2022 年中国消费级 AR 眼镜销量超过预期，主要线上平台销量格局中，Top5 厂商分别为雷鸟创新/Nreal/Rokid/INMO/米家，市占率分别为28.4%/25.1%/21.0%/7.5%/5.2%，合计占比 87.2%。请仔细阅读本报告末页声明 Page 16/47 Table_Page 电子电子 2023 年 3 月 27 日 图表 31：2022 年中国市场独立VR头显 Top5 市占率 图表 32：2022 年中国消费级 AR眼镜主要线上平台销量格局 资料来源：IDC，五矿证券研究所 资料来源：艾瑞咨询，五矿证券研究所 3.VR 光学光学 显示显示方案多样方案多样，产业逐渐形成共识产业逐渐形成共识 VR 作为新一代消费电子代表性产品，涉及上游技术及零部件众多，未来如果想在 C 端大范围普及推广，成本的降低和用户体验的提升是必然趋势，而在提升用户体验方面，高分辨率、大视场角、轻薄小型化一直是行业在努力的方向。在提升用户体验方面，光学和显示则是影响最直接的零部件。3.1 VR 光学光学：Pancake 减薄效果好减薄效果好，商用趋势确定，商用趋势确定 VR 光学技术按照光路设计可以分为垂直光路、折叠光路、复合光路以及特定光路四种方案，其中垂直光路包括非球面透镜和菲涅尔透镜，折叠光路包括 Pancake 和液晶偏振全息，复合光路包括多叠自由曲面和异构微透镜阵列，特定光路包括超表面/超透镜。图表 33：VR光学方案 资料来源：Wellsenn XR，五矿证券研究所 请仔细阅读本报告末页声明 Page 17/47 Table_Page 电子电子 2023 年 3 月 27 日 从早期的 VR 盒子，到分体式 VR 以及 VR 一体机，VR 光学先后经历了非球面透镜、菲涅尔透镜和 Pancake 三个阶段，更为前沿的技术还包括液晶偏振全息、多叠自由曲面、异构微透镜阵列、超表面/超透镜。但不论哪种方案，技术演进的方向都是为了得到更大的视场角、更短的光学镜头总长以及更小的畸变。图表 34：VR光学发展历程 资料来源：Wellsenn XR，五矿证券研究所 非球面透镜：早期 VR 设备采用非球面透镜，相比于球面透镜可以实现光线聚焦。球面透镜曲面弧度是均匀的，具有单一的曲率半径。优点是加工设备简单、价格便宜，缺点是光线聚焦在不同的距离(取决于相对于镜头边缘进入的位置)，从而导致模糊和外围失真，这种现象称为球面像差。非球面镜是指表面不是球面或者柱面的透镜，没有统一的球面半径。非球面镜片的作用就是通过修改镜片表面的曲率，让近轴光线与远轴光线所形成的焦点位置重合，由于其独特的设计（表面曲率角度较浅），可以减少或消除球面像差，此外，还能减少畸变和边缘散光。图表 35：球面透镜 图表 36：非球面透镜 资料来源：BOXIN，五矿证券研究所 资料来源：SCHOTT，五矿证券研究所 请仔细阅读本报告末页声明 Page 18/47 Table_Page 电子电子 2023 年 3 月 27 日 图表 37：使用球面透镜时像差的产生（左）和使用非球面透镜时的校正（右）资料来源：asphericon，五矿证券研究所 图表 38：球面透镜 VS 非球面透镜 球面透镜 非球面透镜 对称性 旋转对称 旋转对称 曲率半径 相等 不相等 像差校正 受限制 可行的 测量 光学和触觉，2D和 3D 光学和触觉，2D和 3D 成本 较低 较高 表面形状 双凸面，平凸形，凹凸形，平凹形，双凹面 资料来源：海纳光学，五矿证券研究所 非球面透镜相比球面透镜具有一定优势，中国厂商如歌尔股份、欧菲光、舜宇光学、双莹光电等均具有自主设计和加工能力，但是非球面透镜在色彩、畸变、厚度等方面仍然存在不足，目前仅有爱奇艺奇遇 Dream、PS VR1 等少数设备使用非球面透镜。使用注塑成型工艺的 VR非球面透镜成本约 5-8 元。非球面透镜的应用原理是通过透镜镜片把 VR 眼镜屏幕的画面放大，让光路顺着光源平直进入人眼。通过非球面透镜，可将 0.5 英寸的屏幕画面放大 2.5 倍以上，而且能满足 90130 度视场角范围。然而，视野轴距和设备重量是非球面透镜的致命缺点。早期非球面透镜 VR 设备从贴眼处算起，至少要延伸 810cm 才能够实现比较理想的画面呈现，此外，非球面透镜较多采用玻璃材质，经常需要多镜片组合，且面临制作工艺复杂、轻便性差的问题，因此非球面光学出现以及普及的时间特别短，短短一两年间就被菲涅尔透镜全面替代了。菲涅尔透镜：菲涅尔透镜（Fresnel lens），又称螺纹透镜，是法国物理学家奥古斯丁菲涅尔发明的一种透镜。此设计初用于灯塔，这种设计可以制造出具有更大光圈的镜头，与其他透镜相比，菲涅耳透镜具有体积小、重量轻、结构紧凑等优点，并具有良好的对焦性能和成像性能。菲涅尔透镜用一系列同心槽代替传统光学透镜的曲面。这些轮廓作为单独的折射表面，将平行光线弯曲至一个共同焦距。因此，菲涅尔透镜虽然在外形轮廓上很窄，但依然能够聚光。请仔细阅读本报告末页声明 Page 19/47 Table_Page 电子电子 2023 年 3 月 27 日 菲涅尔透镜的材质多是树脂、塑料，同时较非球面透镜最大的进步在于大幅缩短了焦距，使得菲涅尔透镜在成本、重量方面都有更大的优势，能够以更轻薄的形式呈现 VR 画面，直到现在菲涅尔仍是 VR 行业的主流光学方案之一，受到了众多厂商青睐。图表 39：菲涅尔透镜 图表 40：菲涅尔透镜与普通透镜聚光对比 资料来源：TOPLITE，五矿证券研究所 资料来源：muRata，五矿证券研究所 图表 41：菲涅尔透镜轮廓 图表 42：平凸透镜和菲涅尔透镜的侧面轮廓对比 资料来源：Edmund Optics，五矿证券研究所 资料来源：Edmund Optics，五矿证券研究所 目前能提供菲涅尔透镜的厂商有歌尔股份、舜宇、欧菲光、双莹光电、趣立科技等，主流 VR头显设备如 Meta Quest 2、PICO Neo3、PS VR2 等设备均采用了菲涅尔透镜方案。Pancake：虽然菲涅尔透镜比非球面透镜有较大优势，但是从终端产品角度，依然不够轻便，主要原因还是在于二者均为平行光路的方案，如果要进一步缩小头盔前端厚度，折叠光路会是一个更优的选择。因此，Pancake 作为折叠光路的代表，便开始被 VR 设备逐渐使用。根据 YVR 官方数据，YVR 2 采用的 Pancake 光机厚度仅为 20mm，而菲涅尔光机为 40mm，厚度减小了 50%，整机厚度被压缩至 42mm。根据 PICO 官方数据，PICO 4 头盔前端厚度为 35.8mm，比上一代产品厚度减小 38.8%，重量减小 26.2%。请仔细阅读本报告末页声明 Page 20/47 Table_Page 电子电子 2023 年 3 月 27 日 图表 43：菲涅尔与 Pancake 厚度对比 图表 44：PICO 4 比 PICO Neo3 前端重量及厚度均有所减小 资料来源：YVR，五矿证券研究所 资料来源：PICO 官网，五矿证券研究所（注：头显厚度是指头显外壳边缘离 前盖最近的距离，头显重量是指去除泡棉和所有绑带后头显的重量）Pancake 方案比菲涅尔透镜厚度明显缩小，主要在于光机工作原理不同。菲涅尔透镜采用平行光路方案，Pancake 通过折叠光路来减小光路系统空间的物理距离，从而缩小厚度，其核心是采用线偏光片（LP）、1/4波片（QWP）、半透半反镜（BS）、反射偏振片（PBS）来实现光路的折叠。图表 45：菲涅尔光学和Pancake 光路方案对比 图表 46：Pancake 折叠光路原理 资料来源：93913XR，五矿证券研究所 资料来源：三利谱，五矿证券研究所 图表 47：PICO 4 Pancake 光学透镜 资料来源：PICO 官网，五矿证券研究所 请仔细阅读本报告末页声明 Page 21/47 Table_Page 电子电子 2023 年 3 月 27 日 Pancake 与菲涅尔透镜相比，在多项性能指标上都有优势。屈光度方面，Pancake 能实现屈光度调节，普遍调节范围在 0-700之间，佩戴眼镜的用户可以调到适合自己的度数，摘掉眼镜佩戴。FOV 理论上限方面，菲涅尔透镜为 140，Pancake 可以做到更大的视场角，最高可到达 200。面板分辨率方面，菲涅尔透镜为 4K4K，Pancake 则没有限制。厚度和重量方面，菲涅尔透镜一般为 40-50mm，400-500g，Pancake 更薄更轻，一般为 18-25mm，200-300g。高性能优势势必伴随着高成本，菲涅尔透镜成本一般为 30-40 元，Pancake 则高达200-300 元。图表 48：Pancake 与菲涅尔透镜性能对比 菲涅尔透镜 Pancake 屈光度调节 变焦调节 FOV 理论上限 140 200 面板分辨率理论上限 4K x 4K 无限制 厚度 40-50mm 18-25mm 重量 400-500g 200-300g 成本 30-40 元 200-300 元 资料来源：THUBA，五矿证券研究所 Pancake 相比菲涅尔，不仅有效减小了厚度和重量，而且成像质量更好，还支持屈光度调节。商用趋势确定，但是仍然存在光效低、鬼影、FOV 小、成本高等痛点。光效低：受光学原理限制，光线在 Pancake 模组中，每次经过半透半反镜会损失 50%，经过反射偏振片损失 10%。整体而言，通常 Pancake 模组光效约 10%-20%。因此，Pancake方案对屏幕亮度有更高要求，需要配套升级显示方案。鬼影：在光学成像系统中，光线经过透镜界面多次反射、散射等会产生杂散光，并在画面中的某个位置形成的“像”，被称为“鬼影”（Ghost）。鬼影降低了图像质量。Pancake 方案因为光线多次折返，鬼影问题相比常规非球面/菲涅尔方案更为严重，一般通过改善透镜材料、改变形状、优化光路等方式抑制鬼影。FOV 小：Pancake 方案有着更高的视场角理论上限，但目前可实现的视场角基本都在 60-90，明显低于菲涅尔透镜方案（100以上）。技术上可以通过曲面贴膜工艺扩大 FOV，改善视场角小的缺点，但是工艺难度较大，仍需在工艺上进行升级。成本高：Pancake 方案中最核心的是光学膜，包括线偏光片（LP）、1/4波片（QWP）、半透半反镜（BS）、反射偏振片（PBS）等，目前全球仅有 3M、旭化成等少数企业产品能达到Pancake 设计要求，一组透镜（单目）的光学膜成本接近 100 元，同时对贴膜的精度和平滑度要求很高，再加上为了改善鬼影问题而采用改善的材料，将进一步增加成本。作为改善用户体验的重要方案，针对以上痛点，我们认为产业界将不遗余力的投入研发，以求在解决问题的同时降低成本，进一步提升 Pancake 方案渗透率。目前能提供 Pancake 光学设计、加工的厂商有舜宇光学、欧菲光、水晶光电、双莹光电、耐德佳等，能提供 Pancake 光学膜的厂商有 3M、旭化成等，中国厂商中，三利谱在 VR 用Pancake 光学膜产品领域具有相关的技术储备；深纺织（盛波光电）已掌握 VR/AR 用偏光 请仔细阅读本报告末页声明 Page 22/47 Table_Page 电子电子 2023 年 3 月 27 日 片产品的生产技术并曾小规模供货，产品可用于主流的 VR/AR 显示终端产品；杉杉股份（杉金光电）VR 用偏光片项目正加快推进，VR 显示端用偏光片测试进展顺利。主流 VR 头显设备如 Meta Quest Pro、PICO 4、YVR 2、创维 PANCAKE 1、PS VR 2 等设备均采用了 Pancake方案。Pancake 在未来几年有望成为 VR 设备主流光学方案，也是行业未来几年需要重点攻坚提升的方向。但是 Pancake 绝不是终点，除此之外，依然还有一些更为前沿的光学技术，包括多叠折返式自由曲面、异构微透镜阵列、液晶偏振全息、超表面/超透镜等。只不过这些技术距离商用还很遥远，但是对于 VR 设备来说，这些前沿技术为 VR 设备的进化升级提供了更多可能。图表 49：VR光学方案对比 非球面透镜 菲涅尔透镜 折叠光路 Pancake 多叠折返式 自由曲面 异构微透镜阵列 液晶偏振全息 超表面/超透镜 光学原理 常规 FOV 90-180 90-120 70-100 80-100 150-180 60-100 80-150 常规 TTL 40-50mm 40-50mm 15-20mm 40-45mm 20-30mm 5-10mm 1-2mm 成像质量 边缘成像好 容易产生 伪影和畸变 边缘成像质量好但容易产伪影 容易产生畸变 视场角超大 但容易产生 伪影和畸变 FOC和 Eyebox 色差小 优点 成本便宜 较轻薄 便宜 轻薄 成像质量好 有利于眼动 元器件布置 轻薄 超大视场角 超薄 可实时变焦 超薄 光路可定制 量产价格 5-10 元 15-20 元 120-180 元 50-100 元-发展阶段 淡出市场 主流选择 即将大规模应用 小众市场 前沿研究 前沿探索 前沿探索 代表产品 VR盒子 PS VR等 Meta Quest 2 PICO Neo3 等 华为 VR Glass 苹果 MR等 Lynx 暂无 暂无 暂无 资料来源：Wellsenn XR，五矿证券研究所 3.2 VR 显示：显示：Fast-LCD 已已成为主流选择，硅基成为主流选择，硅基 OLED 有望被苹果采用有望被苹果采用 作为沉浸式体验设备，显示屏是最接近用户眼睛的零部件，因此显示屏的观感直接决定了用户体验，重要指标包括分辨率（像素密度）、响应速度、刷新率、对比度、亮度等。目前，主要的显示技术有 LCD、OLED、Mini LED、Micro LED、Micro OLED 等。LCD 是液晶显示屏，当外加电压时，液晶分子原本的旋转排列发生扭转，进而改变光线通过的旋转幅度，并以不同比例照射在彩色滤光片上，进而产生不同的颜色。OLED 是有机发光二极管，其原理是在两电极之间夹上有机发光层，当正负极电子在此有机材料中相遇时就会发光。与 LCD 最大的区别在于 LCD 需要背光源，而 OLED 能够自发光。请仔细阅读本报告末页声明 Page 23/47 Table_Page 电子电子 2023 年 3 月 27 日 图表 50：LCD结构 图表 51：OLED结构 资料来源：科技新报，五矿证券研究所 资料来源：科技新报，五矿证券研究所 Mini LED 和 Micro LED 最直观的差异就是 LED 晶体的颗粒大小，基本上以 100m 为界，Mini LED 被视为是 Micro LED 的过渡期，是传统 LED 背光基础上的改良版本，作为 LCD 面板的背光源使用；Micro LED 则是新一代的显示技术，将 LED 背光源微缩化、矩阵化，致力于单独驱动无机自发光（自发光）、让产品寿命更长，甚至性能更胜 OLED，被业界视为下世代的显示技术。虽然 Micro LED 显示技术具有显著的优势，但该技术尚不成熟，在芯片、背板、巨量转移、全彩化、接合、驱动和检测维修等方面仍然存在一些技术瓶颈。Micro OLED 又称硅基 OLED（OLEDoS），传统 OLED 是将屏幕建立在玻璃基板上，而硅基OLED 采用单晶硅晶圆作为背板，从而使得显示器更轻薄短小、耗电量更低、发光效率高，亮度和像素密度表现都很好，特别适用于 VR/AR 等显示穿戴式设备。图表 52：Micro LED结构 图表 53：巨量转移技术 资料来源：科技新报，五矿证券研究所 资料来源：科技新报，五矿证券研究所 请仔细阅读本报告末页声明 Page 24/47 Table_Page 电子电子 2023 年 3 月 27 日 图表 54：Micro OLED结构 资料来源：手机技术咨询，五矿证券研究所 从目前 VR 设备应用来看，大多数 VR 设备采用的是 LCD 屏，Meta Quest 2，HTC Vive 以及 PICO Neo3 和创维 PANCAKE 1 等，主要原因在于 LCD 技术已十分成熟，能做到很高的分辨率（LCD 像素密度已超过 1000PPI），但是 LCD 也有缺点，就是响应速度慢，普通 LCD响应速度只有 AMOLED 的 1/1001/1000，当用户戴上头盔有比较大的头部转动时，将会出现无法弥补的拖影。为了解决这一问题，2018 年以后快速响应液晶屏（Fast-LCD）技术开始出现，改良后的 Fast-LCD 技术采用全新液晶材料（铁电液晶材料）与超速驱动技术，能够有效提升刷新率至 7590Hz，响应速度得到了明显提高，大大缩短了与 OLED 之间的距离，且具有较高的量产稳定性及良率、成本也更低，目前 PICO 4、奇遇 Dream Pro、大朋VR E4 已经使用。但是 Fast-LCD 由于背光层存在，容易出现显示器漏光等问题，而 Mini LED 背光则能够很好的解决该问题，Mini LED 背光与 Fast-LCD 结合，还能进一步提升 Fast-LCD 在高对比度、高刷新率、高亮度等方面的性能，目前 Meta Quest Pro 已经使用。OLED 方面，玻璃基的 OLED 受制于 FMM（精细金属掩膜版）工艺，很难做到超小像素，PPI（单位像素密度）不高导致画面颗粒感比较明显，存在纱窗效应，影响 VR 的沉浸感及视觉清晰度（OLED 像素密度尚未突破 1000PPI，大概在 600 左右），这也是 OLED 一直未被主流 VR 设备所采用的关键原因。因此，为了改善 OLED 的纱窗效应，OLED 在逐步向硅基OLED 转变。硅基 OLED 显示屏采用单晶硅芯片基底，无论是亮度还是像素密度都有明显提升，像素密度可达 30004000PPI。展望未来，我们认为 Fast-LCD 有望凭借低成本和产能优势，推动 VR 产业快速发展。硅基OLED 由于成本高，因此将在高端设备中率先被采用，苹果 2023 年发布的 MR 设备有望采用硅基 OLED，随着技术进步和市场发展，若硅基 OLED 成本降低到有足够竞争力，将迎来快速增长。请仔细阅读本报告末页声明 Page 25/47 Table_Page 电子电子 2023 年 3 月 27 日 图表 55：VR产业链相关公司 产业链环节 中国大陆公司 中国台湾及海外公司 光学 Pancake 光学镜头 联合光电、诚瑞光学 玉晶光 反射式偏振膜、1/4 相位延时片-3M、旭化成 偏光片、膜贴合 三利谱 3M 瞳距调节模组 兆威机电 模组 歌尔股份、舜宇光学、欧菲光、惠牛科技 显示 Fast-LCD 京东方 A、TCL 科技 夏普、JDI、群创光电 Mini LED背光模组 鸿利智汇、隆利科技、瑞丰光电、运鸿辉 硅基 OLED 视涯科技 芯片 CIS 韦尔股份 索尼 主芯片 瑞芯微、全志科技 高通 整机 ODM 歌尔股份 终端品牌 创维数字、PICO、华为、DPVR、YVR Meta、索尼 资料来源：各公司官网，各公司公告，五矿证券研究所 4.AR 实现显示实现显示 虚拟世界融合虚拟世界融合，中短期内一体式中短期内一体式/分体式分体式将将共存共存 不同于头戴式 VR 设备可以显示来自直接放置在穿戴者面前的投影仪或成像系统的图像，AR设备需要透视功能，既要看到真实的外部世界，也要看到虚拟信息，所以成像系统不能挡在视线前方，因此需要一个或多个额外的光学元件构建光学组合器。光学组合器在将外部光线传输到人眼的同时反射虚拟图像，将虚拟内容叠加在现实场景之上，以使其相互补充和增强。光学组合器的不同，是区分 AR 显示系统的关键。图表 56：VR与 AR近眼显示原理 资料来源：RADIANT，五矿证券研究所 从形态上区分，AR 眼镜分为分体式和一体式，其中分体式又分为单色分体式和双目全彩分体式。每类产品的定位不同，单目 AR 主要追求极致的轻量化，主要功能为信息提示等；双 请仔细阅读本报告末页声明 Page 26/47 Table_Page 电子电子 2023 年 3 月 27 日 目 AR 具有显示和交互能力、画质更好，可用于观影、娱乐等场景，主要定位于消费级；一体式 AR 则更侧重于计算能力和交互属性的加强，主要定位于企业级用户，造价高。图表 57：不同形态的 AR整机 资料来源：艾瑞咨询，五矿证券研究所 AR 设备一直在追求更轻薄、更小体积、更低功耗、更舒适的佩戴体验，因此光学成像和显示技术便成为了产业界需要重点突破和提升的领域。4.1 AR 光学光学：光波导光波导性能优势明显，有望引领未来性能优势明显，有望引领未来 在光学成像领域，常见的光学成像系统主要有离轴反射、棱镜、自由曲面、Birdbath 和光波导。离轴反射的原理是将显示屏内容通过一个透明的反射镜面反射到眼睛里，而外界景物也透过这个镜面进入眼睛，从而实现了虚实景物的叠加。优点是结构简单、成本低，FOV 较大，缺点是体积大。棱镜（Prism）方案技术成熟、成本低，但 FOV 较小，厚度较厚、显示面积较小，同时在强光下的显示效果一般，为了解决这一问题，通常采用包裹式方案，保证了内容清晰且不受环境光线影响。自由曲面（Free-space）分为大曲面和小曲面，大曲面的优势在于 FOV 大、成像效果好，小曲面则通过牺牲 FOV 获得小巧轻便的外观，更便于日常穿戴，性价比更高。折返式（Birdbath）显示的内容被投在一个半透明的分光镜片上，优势在于光学结构比离轴反射更小，但是亮度及透光率较低。请仔细阅读本报告末页声明 Page 27/47 Table_Page 电子电子 2023 年 3 月 27 日 图表 58：棱镜/自由曲面/Birdbath 光学系统原理 资料来源：Omdia，五矿证券研究所 光波导由具有特定透光性的透明玻璃或塑料薄片制成，用于引导特定方向、形状或图案的电磁波，成像光线从侧面在镜片内部通过反射传播最终射入眼睛，由于利用了镜片内部空间进行传播，因此不需要增加额外的外部空间，使得整个眼镜可以做的很轻薄。光波导技术壁垒高、价格贵、可量产性有待提高，但由于其兼具大 FOV、体积小、透光率高、画质高清等特点，从光学效果、外观形态以及量产前景来看，具备最好的发展潜力，有望成为 AR 眼镜的终极解决方案。光波导原理是通过全反射机制传播光线，全反射情况下，光在传输的过程中可以做到无损失无泄漏。当光机完成成像过程后，波导将光耦合进自己的玻璃基底中，通过全反射原理将光传输到眼睛前方再释放出来。在此过程中波导只负责传输图像，不对图像进行放大或缩小，因此它是独立于成像系统而存在的一个单独元件。图表 59：AR光波导全反射机制示意图 图表 60：基于光波导的AR外观原理示意图 资料来源：RADIANT，五矿证券研究所 资料来源：Rokid，五矿证券研究所 光波导总体分为几何光波导（Geometric Waveguide）和衍射光波导（Diffractive Waveguide），几何光波导就是阵列光波导，采用传统光学冷加工技术，通过阵列反射镜堆叠实现图像的输出和动眼框的扩大，代表公司是以色列 Lumus。衍射光波导又可以分为利用光刻技术制造的表面浮雕光栅波导（Surface Relief Grating）和基于全息干涉技术制造的全息体光栅波导（Volumetric Holographic Grating）。受益于传统光通信行业中设计和制造技术积累，目前表面浮雕光栅波导（SRG）占据了市场上衍射光波导 请仔细阅读本报告末页声明 Page 28/47 Table_Page 电子电子 2023 年 3 月 27 日 AR 眼镜产品的大多数，代表公司包括 Snapchat（WaveOptics）等，微软 HoloLens 2、Magic Leap One、Vuzix Blade 等产品均采用了表面浮雕光栅波导技术。全息体光栅光波导则是使用全息体光栅元件代替浮雕光栅，代表公司包括苹果（Akonia）、Digilens 和索尼等，目前处在技术发展期，优点是色彩表现较好，缺点是对 FOV 的限制比较大。图表 61：常见光波导及光栅结构 资料来源：AR VR Journey，五矿证券研究所 图表 62：几何光波导/表面浮雕光栅波导/全息体光栅波导对比 几何光波导 衍射光波导 光波导类别 几何光波导 表面浮雕光栅波导 全息体光栅波导 代表公司 Lumus、灵犀、珑璟光电、Optivent 微软，Vuzix，Magic Leap，WaveOptics，Dispelex Digilens，Sony，Akonia(被 Apple 收购）光学元件：材料组成 半透半反镜面阵列：具有薄膜涂层的玻璃或塑料 表面浮雕光栅（SRG）：高折射率聚合物 全息光栅（VHG）或全息光学元件（HOE）：液晶，感光树脂 输入 反射镜或棱镜 SRG：倾斜光栅（slanted grating)或闪耀光栅（blazed grating)VHG 输出 半透半反镜面阵列，1D出口瞳孔扩展 SRG，2D出口瞳孔扩展 VHG，2D出口瞳孔扩展 已证实的最大视场角 Lumus 55 HoloLens 2 52 Magic Leap One 50 Digilens 35 典型眼动范围 10mm 5mm（16-19）mm（12-16）mm 13mm 12mm 制造工艺 常规光学、镀膜、堆叠、切割等工艺 半导体工厂中的精密加工和纳米压印 全息激光干涉测量法 优点 出色的图像质量，无色散 2D瞳孔扩展，大规模量产证实 2D瞳孔扩展；如果大规模量产证实，将会更有成本效益 缺点 1D瞳孔扩展，制造工艺步骤复杂 色散，更高的设计壁垒 色散、模糊、FOV 较小，效率较低 资料来源：Rokid，五矿证券研究所 请仔细阅读本报告末页声明 Page 29/47 Table_Page 电子电子 2023 年 3 月 27 日 目前 AR 主流产品中，Google Glass Enterprise Edition 2 采用了棱镜，Epson MOVERIO 采用了自由曲面，Nreal Light 和高通 AR Smart Viewer 采用了 Birdbath，Lumus Maximus 采用了几何光波导，微软 HoloLens 2 采用表面浮雕光栅波导，TCL 雷鸟发布的先锋版智能眼镜采用全息光波导。根据中国移动数据，2022 年全球发布 AR 眼镜使用光波导、Birdbath 和自由曲面的比例分别为 36%、32%、20%。图表 63：采用不同光学方案的AR眼镜产品 资料来源：ChinaIT，五矿证券研究所 将不同 AR 光学方案进行对比，光波导在镜片厚度、视场角、透光度、产品尺寸等方面均具备较大优势，当然技术壁垒也最高。展望 AR 眼镜光学成像方案演进趋势，光波导技术优势明显，我们认为随着未来光波导技术更加成熟，工艺流程更加标准化、高效化，成本有望进一步下降，将推动渗透率进一步提升。根据 Strategy Analytics 数据，预计到 2026 年，全球消费级 AR 设备出货量占比中，低于 500美元的占比为 62%，500-1000 美元的占比为 35%，高于 1000 美元的占比为 2%。图表 64：2026 年不同价位段消费级 AR设备出货量占比 资料来源：Strategy Analytics，五矿证券研究所 请仔细阅读本报告末页声明 Page 30/47 Table_Page 电子电子 2023 年 3 月 27 日 图表 65：目前主流 AR光学方案对比 项目 棱镜 自由曲面 Birdbath 几何光波导 衍射光波导 产品形态 技术壁垒 镜片厚度 10mm 10mm 8mm 2nm 2nm 视场角 15 30 30-50 40-55 40-50 透光度 50PP%光效 10%-200%-50%-15%0.3%-1%产品尺寸 较大 较大 小 小 小 显示屏幕 LCoS LCoS/Micro OLED Micro OLED LCoS/Micro OLED/Micro LED DLP/Micro LED 主要缺点 体积大 厚度相对较大 厚度大、亮度低 二维扩瞳技术和键合工艺门槛高 彩虹色散、光效低 主要代表 Google Glass EPSON 耐德佳 理湃光晶、Lumus 微软 HoloLens、WaveOptics 资料来源：ChinaIT，五矿证券研究所 4.2 AR 显示显示：硅基：硅基 OLED 占据主导，占据主导，Micro LED 未来可期未来可期 除了光学成像技术，显示技术也是 AR 设备提升的重点。目前 AR 设备主流显示技术包括被动式微显示技术、主动式微显示技术以及扫描显示技术。被动式微显示技术工作时需要 LED 作为光源，包括传统的 LCD、LCoS 和 DLP。硅基液晶（Liquid Crystal On Silicon，LCoS）在早期的 AR 设备中使用较多，技术成熟，但是功耗高、对比度低，影响续航和用户体验，限制了进一步发展。数字光学处理技术（Digital Light Processing，DLP）采用的核心元件是 DMD 显示芯片，设备可以通过控制镜片的偏转达到显示图像的目的。被动式微显示技术已经非常成熟，优点是高亮度、高色域等，但相比其他微显示技术光机体积较大，并且光展量有限。主动式微显示技术采用自发光，包括硅基 OLED 和 Micro LED。硅基 OLED（Micro OLED，OLEDoS）系统简单，但是亮度较低，仅能达到 1000-6000nit，最终进入人眼的亮度可能只有 200-300nit，因此在室外等明亮场景下，显示效果会大打折扣，而 Micro LED 在亮度和使用寿命方面都更有优势。目前，硅基 OLED 因其对比度高、功耗低、工艺成熟得到广泛运用；Micro LED 由于工艺技术难度高，LED 外延成本较高、巨量转移的速度和良率还有待提升，短期内还难以替代硅基 OLED，但是因其功耗低、亮度高、解析度高、饱和度高、响应速度快、对比度高、可视角度宽、寿命长等特点，被认为是最适合 AR 的屏幕。扫描显示技术（Laser Beam Scanning，LBS）使用 RGB 激光器作为光源，搭配 MEMS 进行扫描成像。优点是体积小、效率高、色域对比度高，缺点是系统设计较为复杂，同时激光的干涉效应会引起散斑现象，因此在图像质量上也有待提升。请仔细阅读本报告末页声明 Page 31/47 Table_Page 电子电子 2023 年 3 月 27 日 图表 66：AR设备主流显示技术优缺点对比 被动式微显示技术 主动式微显示技术 扫描显示技术 系统 LCD LCoS DLP 硅基 OLED Micro LED Scanning Mirror 描述 白光 LED用于显示部分的背光源 微显示器使用 RGB LED作为光源 微显示器使用 RGB激光作为光源 直接硅基 OLED显示 直接 Micro LED显示 使用 RGB 激光器作为光源的调制扫描技术 优点 低成本 系统简单 技术成熟 技术成熟 高亮度 高色域 较小的体积（和LED系统相比） 高亮度 高色域 系统简单 解析度易扩展 系统简单 高效率 高亮度 高色域高对比度 解析度易扩展 体积小(使用 RGB 激光模组) 效率高 高色域高对比度 可扩展 缺点-低解析度-低亮度-低色域-体积大-有限的光展量-体积还是有点大-干涉导致图像质量差-低亮度-低可靠性-尚不可用-RGB 集成难度极大-系统复杂（光学&电子）-图像质量待提升(干涉效应)-人眼安全规范 资料来源：OSRAM，五矿证券研究所 通过对比 LCoS、DLP、硅基 OLED 和 Micro LED 性能，不难看出，Micro LED 无论在响应时间、亮度、器件结构、功耗、寿命等多个维度均具备明显优势，同时相比于现在广泛应用的硅基 OLED，能够搭配未来可能成为终极解决方案的光波导方案。我们认为，随着 Micro LED 工艺技术进一步改良升级，成本进一步下降，未来有望成为 AR 设备主流显示方案，国际巨头如苹果（LuxVue）、脸书（InfiniLED）、谷歌（Glo、Mojo Vision）、英特尔（Aledia）等已经投资或收购相关领域初创公司，为将来 Micro LED 的大规模商用提前布局。图表 67：AR设备主流显示技术参数对比 项目 LCoS DLP 硅基 OLED Micro LED 产品形态 响应时间 ms（毫秒）s（微秒）s（微秒）ns（纳秒）对比度 1000:1 2500:1 100000:1 100000:1 亮度 根据背光源亮度决定 普遍10000nit 根据背光源亮度决定 普遍20000nit 1000-6000nit 100000nit（全彩）10000000nit（蓝/绿）光源 外部光源 外部光源 自发光 自发光 器件结构 复杂 复杂 简单 简单 工作温度 40%-40 105 -30 70 -100 120 功耗 高 中等 低 低 寿命 10 万小时 10 万小时 10 万小时 AR光学搭配方案 光波导/棱镜 光波导 自由曲面/Birdbath 光波导 资料来源：VR 陀螺，五矿证券研究所 请仔细阅读本报告末页声明 Page 32/47 Table_Page 电子电子 2023 年 3 月 27 日 图表 68：AR产业链相关公司 产业链环节 中国大陆公司 中国台湾及海外公司 光学 自由曲面 联合光电、耐德佳 Birdbath 水晶光电、欧菲光、歌尔股份、舜宇光学、视涯科技、惠牛科技 光波导 水晶光电、欧菲光、歌尔股份、中光学、联合光电、光峰科技、苏大维格、舜宇光学、视涯科技、理湃光晶、珑璟光电、驭光科技 Lumus、WaveOptics 显示 硅基 OLED 京东方 A（创视界光电）、清越科技、维信诺、视涯科技、国兆光电、奥雷德、长信科技（模组）、立讯精密（模组）、华兴源创（检测设备）、莱特光电（材料）、奥来德（材料）索尼、Kopin、eMagin、MICROOLED、APS Holdings Micro LED 京东方 A、利亚德、三安光电、聚灿光电、瑞丰光电、奥拓电子、华灿光电、芯视元、君万微电子、华引芯 MICLEDI、苹果（LuxVue）、脸书（InfiniLED）、谷歌（Glo、Mojo Vision）、英特尔（Aledia）、JBD 芯片 主芯片 高通 整机 ODM 立讯精密 鸿海、广达、和硕 终端品牌 雷鸟创新、Nreal、Rokid、INMO、米家、华为、小米、OPPO、Vivo Google、Magic Leap、微软 资料来源：各公司官网，各公司公告，Nikkei Asia，五矿证券研究所 5.VR/AR 产品百花齐放产品百花齐放，海内外供应商齐助阵海内外供应商齐助阵 5.1 2022 年多款年多款 VR/AR 产品发布产品发布，光学，光学 显示方案路径逐步清晰化显示方案路径逐步清晰化 对于 VR/AR 设备而言，产品形态大同小异，但是核心的光学和显示方案却不尽相同，进而带来产品成本、价格、性能和用户体验的不同，回顾 2022 年全球 VR/AR 设备及配置，不难看出：1）在 VR 设备方面，大部分都采用了一体机设计，携带更方便灵活；光学方案更多厂商开始用 Pancake 替代菲涅尔透镜；显示方案基本是 Fast-LCD 屏幕。VR 设备厂商中，Meta优势明显，但是中国厂商如 PICO 等也在奋力追赶；2）在 AR 设备方面，新品的发布速度明显加快，分体式设计居多；光学方案采用光波导的占据大多数，剩余厂商中 Birdbath 和自由曲面方案较为均衡；显示方案绝大多数采用硅基 OLED，意味着硅基 OLED 目前仍是 AR 显示的主流方案，但是个别厂商已经开始采用 Micro LED。AR 设备行业格局较为分散，中国厂商在产品创新、新品发布等方面处于领先。请仔细阅读本报告末页声明 Page 33/47 Table_Page 电子电子 2023 年 3 月 27 日 图表 69：2022 年 VR设备统计 产品名称 发布日期 产品形态 显示技术 光学技术 分辨率 FOV 重量 售价 小派 Pimax Crystal 11.3 一体机 QLED Mini LED 非球面(玻璃)单目2800 2800 120/140 -Goovis G3 Max 10.23 一体机 Micro OLED(视涯)玻塑混合非球面多镜片组ASPH光学方案 单目2560 1440 65 300g 8999 元 Meta Quest Pro 10.11 一体机 Fast-LCD Mini LED背光 Pancake 单目1920 1080 水平 106；垂直 96 -1500 美元 ThinkReality VRX 9.28 一体机-Pancake-PICO 4 9.27 一体机 Fast-LCD Pancake 双目4320 2160 105 295g 2499 元 大疆 DJI Goggles 2 8.25 连接无人机 Micro OLED(视涯)-单目1920 1080 155 290g-联想 拯救 VR700 8.18 一体机 Fast-LCD 非球面透镜 3664 1920 93 -2999 元 创维PANCAKE 1 7.25 一体机 TCL Fast-LCD Pancake 3200 1600/4560 2280 95 108 450g 2999 元 玩出梦想 YVR 2 7.12 一体机 Fast-LCD Pancake 单目1600 1600 95 350g 4999 元 GXR Verse 6.20 开售 PCVR-双非球面镜片 3200 1600 94 130g 1007.33美元 爱奇艺 奇遇Dream Pro 4.21 一体机 Fast-LCD 双非球面镜片 双目3664 1920 3000 寸巨幕 348g 3499 元 PICO Neo3 Link 4.17 一体机 Fast-LCD 菲涅尔镜片 双目3664 1920-VRgineers XTAL 3 1.10 PCVR Fast-LCD 菲涅尔镜片 3840 2160 水平 180；垂直 90 600g 8900 元 松下 MeganeX 1.4 PCVR Micro OLED Pancake 单目2560 2560-250g 900 美元 索尼PlayStation VR2 1.4 一体机 OLED 菲涅尔镜片 单目2000 2040 110-资料来源：艾邦智造，五矿证券研究所 图表 70：2022 年 AR设备统计 产品名称 发布日期 全彩/单色 显示技术 光学技术 分辨率 FOV 重量 售价 INMO Air 2 10.28 全彩 Micro OLED 反射光波导-3999 元 雷马 Air 1S 10.20 预售 全彩 Micro OLED(Sony)Birdbath(鸿蚁光电)1080p 45 82g 2499 元 李未可 Meta Lons 10.17 单绿色 Micro LED（JBD）衍射光波导(光舟)-30 87g 3999 元 爱普生 Moverio BT-45C 10.12 全彩 Si-OLED-1080P 34 -Vuzix Shield 9.30 单色 Micro LED 光波导-Vuzix Blade 2 9.28-光波导 单目 480 x480 20 -1299.99 美元 印度 Focally Universe 9.27 全彩 Micro LED 光波导-30 -请仔细阅读本报告末页声明 Page 34/47 Table_Page 电子电子 2023 年 3 月 27 日 亮亮视野 听语者 9.21-硅基微晶屏 自研“八面体”阵列光波导-23 79g 3999 元 Dream Glass Flow 9.19 众筹 全彩 Micro OLED Birdbath 双目 3840 1080-59g-NIO Air AR Glasses 9.5 预售 全彩 Sony Micro OLED Birdbath 单目 1920 1080 46 79g 2299 元 麦耘-MY-1 代 9.2 全彩-光波导 1080P-联想 Glasses T1 9.1-Micro OLED 耐德佳自由曲面钻石 单目 1920 1080-阿拉丁 Bi 参考设计 8.26 全彩-二维扩瞳阵列光波导 1280 720 30 50g-Nreal X 8.23 全彩 Sony Micro OLED-3840 1080P 52 106g 4299 元 Nreal Air 8.23-Sony Micro OLED-3840 1080P 46 79g 2299 元 光粒 Holoswim 2 8.5 众筹 单绿色 OLED 全息树脂光波导 128 64 25 70g-诠视科技 SeerLensTM One 8.5 全彩 Si-OLED EPSON自由曲面棱镜 单目 1920 1080 34 -Engo 2 8.4-AMOLED-304 256 10 36g-米家眼镜相机 8.1 全彩 Sony Micro OLED 自由曲面-100g 2699 元 Megic Leap 2 7.12 全彩 LCoS 光波导 1440 1760 70 260g 4999 美元 tooz ESSNZ Berlin 6.1 单绿色 Micro LED 反射光波导 480 640 15 -高通 XR2 智能眼镜参考设计 5.20 全彩 Micro OLED(视涯)耐德佳自由曲面钻石 单目 1920 1080 40 115g-EM3 Stellar Pro 5.18 全彩 Micro OLED Birdbath 2K 53 110g-雷鸟 Air 4.19 开售 全彩 Sony Micro OLED Birdbath 1980 1080 47 75g 2699 元 Dream Glass Lead Pro 4.15 全影-自由曲面 1920 1080 90 320g 1199 美元 OPPO Air AR Glass 3.3 开售 单绿色 Micro LED 至格衍射光波导 1920 1080-30g 4999 元 视享 G330 1.2 全彩 OLED-1920 1080 40 69g 2999 元 资料来源：艾邦智造，五矿证券研究所 AR 设备的分体式设计，舍弃了电池、处理器、内存等组件，通过连接手机等外部设备使用，有效解决了佩戴重量、散热和续航等问题，但是一根线缆连接在眼镜上，外观和使用都受到很大影响，作为可穿戴设备，高通认为一体式设计或者无线连接将成为未来趋势，从而大幅提升用户体验。高通在 2022 高通骁龙峰会期间特别推出了专门面向 AR 眼镜打造的 AR2 平台（骁龙 AR2 Gen 1），有望引领 AR 眼镜的“无线化”潮流。AR 眼镜通过无线连接云端或者其他硬件设备，可以获得更强的处理能力，同时眼镜本体也可以保持小巧轻便。图表 71：高通对 VR/AR设备形态预判 图表 72：高通无线 AR智能眼镜参考设计 资料来源：高通，五矿证券研究所 资料来源：高通，五矿证券研究所 骁龙 AR2 Gen 1，与第一代骁龙 XR2 对比，采用 4nm 工艺，主处理器占用空间减少 40%，PCB 尺寸减小 40%，信号线数量减少 45%，AI性能提升 2.5 倍，功耗降低 50%，能够支持AR眼镜实现低于1W 的功耗，M2P时延低于9ms，支持WiFi 7，传输峰值速度可达5.8Gbps，请仔细阅读本报告末页声明 Page 35/47 Table_Page 电子电子 2023 年 3 月 27 日 并向下兼容 WiFi 6/6E 等协议，整体性能、用户体验提升明显。图表 73：高通骁龙 AR2 Gen1 图表 74：搭载骁龙 AR2 Gen1 的 AR头显原型机 资料来源：高通，五矿证券研究所 资料来源：Niantic，五矿证券研究所 5.2 VR 头显头显拆解及供应商梳理拆解及供应商梳理 根据 VR 陀螺关于 YVR 2 VR 一体机拆解可知，VR 头显的前部包括摄像头模组、主板、屏幕、镜头模组、散热模组、前壳、中框等等，后部则包括电池、头枕、旋钮调节组件等。Meta Quest Pro 硬件硬件 BOM 成本及供应商成本及供应商：2022 年 10 月，Meta 发布了新款 VR 头盔 Meta Quest Pro，初始售价 1500 美元，目前已下调至 999 美元。Quest Pro 搭载全新高通骁龙 XR2 Gen 1 平台，散热和性能更好，存储为12G 256G，并且采用 Pancake 光学方案，体积比 Quest 2 缩小了 40%。显示方面，Quest Pro 配备两块 2.48 英寸的 Fast-LCD 屏幕 Mini LED 背光板，单眼分辨率为 18001920，刷新率为 90Hz，与 Quest 2 相比，全彩混合现实的分辨率提高了 4 倍。图表 75：YVR 2 VR一体机爆炸图 资料来源：VR 陀螺，五矿证券研究所 请仔细阅读本报告末页声明 Page 36/47 Table_Page 电子电子 2023 年 3 月 27 日 图表 76：Meta Quest Pro 沉浸式体验 图表 77：Meta Quest Pro 资料来源：Meta，五矿证券研究所 资料来源：Meta 官网，五矿证券研究所 作为 Meta 最新款 VR 设备，Meta Quest Pro 结构复杂，零部件及供应商众多，根据 Wellsenn XR 数据，Meta Quest Pro 硬件 BOM 方面，主板成本最高，为 168.6 美元；光机模组次之，为 157 美元；电源系统为 126.5 美元；整体 BOM 成本为 587.6 美元，ODM/OEM 成本为 30美元，不含税的综合硬件成本为 617.6 美元。图表 78：Meta Quest Pro 硬件 BOM成本 部件名称 包含内容 金额(美元)主板 含:SoC、RAM、ROM、电源管理芯片、蓝牙芯片、WiFi 芯片、Codec、射频芯片、PCB 等 168.6 传感器 含摄像头、IMU、电子罗盘、距离传感器等 60.1 光机模组 含 pancake 光学模组、Fast-LCD屏募、瞳距调节模组等 157 头显外壳/结构件 外壳注塑件、泡棉、内部精密结构件等(注：仅头显部分，不含手柄部分)17.5 散热模组 含散热风扇和散热导管等 8 电源系统 含头显充电电池、电源连接线等 126.5 声学模组 包含左右两个扬声器以及阵列麦克风以及 3.5mm插孔等 10.7 手柄 含两个手柄 18 配件 含充电头、充电线、充电底座等 19.2 包装 包装盒、说明书等 2 BOM成本 587.6 ODM/OEM 30 不含税综合硬件成本（不包含产品开模费用、不良和运损等）617.6 资料来源：Wellsenn XR，五矿证券研究所 而在硬件成本构成方面，根据品类划分，芯片成本 228.1 美元，占比 36.9%，排名第 1；屏幕成本 106 美元，占比 17.2%，排名第 2；摄像头成本 85 美元，占比 13.8%，排名第 3；其次分别为光学、电源、OEM、结构件、PCB、声学、散热、传感器和马达等，合计占比 32.1%。根据供应商所属国家划分，中国厂商 377.1 美元，占比 61.1%；美国厂商 203.7 美元，占比33.0%；其他还包括日本、韩国、挪威、德国和英国厂商，合计占比 5.9%。请仔细阅读本报告末页声明 Page 37/47 Table_Page 电子电子 2023 年 3 月 27 日 图表 79：Meta Quest Pro 硬件成本构成（按品类）图表 80：Meta Quest Pro 硬件成本构成（按国家）资料来源：Wellsenn XR，五矿证券研究所 资料来源：Wellsenn XR，五矿证券研究所 供应商方面，芯片核心供应商包括高通、TI、英飞凌等，其中高通骁龙 XR 系列芯片在全球VR 设备市场占据了 90%以上的份额；光学模组采用 Pancake 方案，供应商为舜宇光学和歌尔股份；背光模组采用 Mini LED 方案，供应商为鸿利光电、隆利科技和运鸿辉；屏幕采用Fast-LCD 方案，供应商为京东方；PCB 供应商为鹏鼎控股；MEMS 麦克风和整机 ODM 供应商为歌尔股份；摄像头镜头和模组供应商为舜宇光学；CIS 供应商为韦尔股份（豪威科技）和索尼；电池供应商为欣旺达。图表 81：Meta Quest Pro 核心硬件及供应商 器件名称 供应商 头显主板 SoC 高通 LPDDR 美光 ROM 闪迪 电压电平芯片 TI Type C PD快充芯片 英飞凌 音频芯片 骅讯电子 电源管理芯片 高通 快充芯片 高通 FPGA 莱迪思 LED驱动芯片 TI 升压芯片 TI 运算放大器 TI 电压电平芯片 TI 稳压芯片 TI 电源管理芯片 戴泺格/高通 蓝牙芯片 Nordic 时钟发生器 高通 WiFi 6E SIP 村田 钽电容 基美 PCB 鹏鼎 光机 光学模组 Pancake 舜宇光学/歌尔股份 屏幕 Fast-LCD 京东方 Mini LED背光模组 鸿利光电/隆利科技/运鸿辉 MEMS 麦克风 歌尔股份 请仔细阅读本报告末页声明 Page 38/47 Table_Page 电子电子 2023 年 3 月 27 日 头显（除主板、结构件、光机）腔体喇叭 歌尔股份 眼动追踪摄像头 晶方/豪威 面部识别摄像头 晶方/豪威 VST RGB 摄像头 舜宇/索尼 SLAM摄像头 舜宇/豪威 VST 深度摄像头 舜宇/豪威 IMU TKD IMU版 PCB 鹏鼎 P Sensor SENSORTEK 锂电池 欣旺达 资料来源：Wellsenn XR，潮电智库，AR 圈，五矿证券研究所 PICO 4 硬件硬件 BOM 成本及供应商成本及供应商：2022 年 9 月，PICO 面向中国市场正式发布了新一代 VR 一体机PICO 4 系列，起售价2499 元。PICO 4 处理器为 7nm 制程骁龙 XR2 芯片，存储为 8G 128G/256G，采用 Pancake光学透镜，前端厚度减小 38.8%，重量减少 26.2%，搭配 2 块 2.56 英寸 Fast-LCD 屏幕，总分辨率达到 4320 x2160，PPI 为 1200，刷新率最高达 90Hz，视场角 105，并且支持 62-72mm 无级电动瞳距调节。头显端前置 1600 万像素 RGB 彩色摄像头，可以实现彩色透视功能，一方面提供了和真实环境更融合的画面效果，另一方面还为未来的 MR 应用提供了无限可能。图表 82：PICO 4 彩色透视 图表 83：PICO 4 资料来源：PICO 官网，五矿证券研究所 资料来源：PICO，五矿证券研究所 根据 Wellsenn XR 数据，PICO 4（8G 128G 版本）硬件 BOM 方面，光机模组成本最高，为 138 美元；主板次之，为 115.85 美元；整体 BOM 成本为 348.25 美元，ODM/OEM 成本为 20 美元，不含税的综合硬件成本为 368.25 美元。请仔细阅读本报告末页声明 Page 39/47 Table_Page 电子电子 2023 年 3 月 27 日 图表 84：PICO 4 硬件 BOM成本（8G 128G 版本）部件名称 包含内容 金额（美元）主板 含:XR2、RAM、ROM、电源管理芯片、蓝牙芯片、WiFi 芯片、Codec、射频芯片、PCB等 115.85 传感器 含摄像头、IMU、电子罗盘、距离传感器、PCB 等 28.6 光机模组 含 Pancake 光学模组、Fast-LCD屏幕、瞳距调节模组等 138 头显外壳/结构件 外壳注塑件、内部精密结构件等（注:仅头显部分，不含手柄部分）9 散热模组 包含风扇和散热片 3.5 手柄 含两个手柄以及 4 节五号电池 33.8 声学模组 包含左右两个扬声器以及麦克风等 6 电池 含充电电池、电源连接线等 8 配件 含充电头、充电线等 3.5 包装 包装盒、说明书等 2 BOM成本 348.25 ODM/OEM 20 不含税综合硬件成本 368.25 税后成本（不考虑良率和运损）按增值税 13%，美元兑人民币汇率7 计算 2913 人民币 资料来源：Wellsenn XR，五矿证券研究所 而在硬件成本构成方面，根据品类划分，芯片成本 112.65 美元，占比 30.6%，排名第 1；屏幕成本 84 美元，占比 22.8%，排名第 2；光学成本 44 美元，占比 11.9%，排名第 3；其次分别为传感器、OEM/ODM、结构件、PCB、电池、声学和散热件等，合计占比 34.7%。根据供应商所属国家划分，中国厂商 125.65 美元，占比 34.1%；美国厂商 104.4 美元，占比28.4%；日本厂商 97.35 美元，占比 26.4%；其他还包括韩国、挪威、南非和荷兰等厂商，合计占比 11.1%。图表 85：PICO 4 硬件成本构成（按品类）图表 86：PICO 4 硬件成本构成（按国家）资料来源：Wellsenn XR，五矿证券研究所 资料来源：Wellsenn XR，五矿证券研究所 供应商方面，芯片核心供应商包括高通、三星、Qorvo、恩智浦、兆易创新等；光学模组采用Pancake方案，供应商为歌尔股份和三利谱；瞳距调节模组供应商为兆威机电；屏幕采用Fast-LCD 方案，供应商为 JDI/群创；摄像头供应商为舜宇光学、丘钛科技；CIS 供应商为豪威和索尼；PCB 供应商为胜宏科技和方正；结构件、连接器、扬声器、麦克风和 ODM 供应商为歌尔股份。请仔细阅读本报告末页声明 Page 40/47 Table_Page 电子电子 2023 年 3 月 27 日 图表 87：PICO 4 核心硬件及供应商 器件名称 供应商 主板 处理器 SoC 高通 运存 DRAM 三星 内存 ROM 闪迪 WiFi 芯片 高通 射频芯片 FEM QORVO 威讯 蓝牙芯片 BEL NORDIC北欧半导体 电源管理芯片 PMIC 高通/南芯/长晶科技/芯源 微处理器 MCU 兆易创新 音频编解码芯片 Codec 高通 电机驱动芯片 艾为电子 音频芯片 PA 高通 充电管理芯片 恩智浦 NXP PCB 方正 光机 光学模组 Pancake 歌尔股份/三利谱 瞳距调节模组 兆威机电 屏幕 Fast-LCD JDI/群创 交互传感器 VGA 摄像头模组 舜宇 RGB 摄像头 丘钦/舜宇 距离传感器 P Sensor 异佳电子 陀螺仪 IMU AKM旭化成/TDK 东电化电子 陀螺仪 PCB 胜宏科技 头显（除主板、光机、传感器）散热风扇 AVC 电池 Pack 路华置富 扬声器 歌尔股份 资料来源：Wellsenn XR，潮电智库，AR 圈，五矿证券研究所 从 Meta Quest Pro 和 PICO 4 硬件成本来看，主板（SoC、存储、电源管理芯片、蓝牙芯片、WiFi 芯片、射频芯片、PCB 等）和光机模组（光学模组 Pancake、Fast-LCD 屏幕、瞳距调节模组等）成本占比最大；从供应商来看，国外厂商在 SoC、存储、模拟、射频、音频等芯片领域占据主导地位，中国厂商则在光学方案、屏幕、摄像头、CIS、PCB、电池、扬声器、MEMS 麦克风、ODM 等领域优势明显。5.3 AR 眼镜拆解及供应商梳理眼镜拆解及供应商梳理 AR 设备种类繁多，应用场景多样化。根据 Strategy Analytics 数据，一体式 AR 眼镜包括传感器、摄像头、透镜、投影仪/光源模组、音频输出、麦克风、CPU/GPU、电池、连接模块等。从成本构成上来看，根据艾瑞咨询数据，分体式 AR 眼镜光学显示单元占比最大，为 43%，具体包括微投影光机、镜片和显示屏等；计算单元占比 31%，包括主控芯片 CPU/GPU 等，存储芯片占比 15%，感知单元（摄像头、传感器、陀螺仪、加速度计等）占比 9%，电池占比 2%。对于双目 AR 设备，目前以分体式设计为主，比如 Nreal Air、Rokid Air、华为 Vision Glass等，不仅重量更轻，而且由于省去了 SoC、电源管理、通信、定位、电池等多个关键组件，请仔细阅读本报告末页声明 Page 41/47 Table_Page 电子电子 2023 年 3 月 27 日 降低了 BOM 成本和售价，但是需要通过一根线缆连接手机、电脑等外部设备，使用上会有不便；一体式设计则免去了线束的束缚，比如微软 HoloLens 2，但是散热、续航和佩戴重量等问题依然需要优化。图表 88：一体式 AR眼镜零部件 图表 89：分体式 AR眼镜模组及 BOM成本占比 资料来源：Strategy Analytics，五矿证券研究所 资料来源：艾瑞咨询，五矿证券研究所 华为华为 Vision Glass硬件硬件 BOM 成本及供应商成本及供应商：2022 年 12 月，华为正式发布了新款 AR 眼镜华为 Vision Glass，售价 2999 元起，该款 AR眼镜采用双 Micro OLED 屏幕，单屏 0.49 英寸，分辨率为 219201080，刷新率 60Hz，拥有 120 英寸虚拟巨幕，光学方案为 Birdbath，视场角约 41。佩戴方面支持 500以内的单眼近视独立调节，无需佩戴眼镜，双眼都能轻松看清；支持瞳距自适应，适合更多人群使用。图表 90：华为 Vision Glass 观影 图表 91：华为 Vision Glass 资料来源：华为官网，五矿证券研究所 资料来源：华为商城，五矿证券研究所 根据 Wellsenn XR 数据，华为 Vision Glass 硬件 BOM 方面，屏幕成本最高，为 80 美元；光学模组次之，为 50 美元；整体 BOM 成本为 165.9 美元，ODM/OEM 成本为 15 美元，不含税的综合硬件成本为 180.9 美元。供应商方面，屏幕采用硅基 OLED 方案，供应商为视涯科技；光学模组采用 Birdbath 方案，供应商为惠牛科技/水晶光电；MCU 供应商为意法半导体；音频 PA 为艾为电子；音腔喇叭BOX供应商为歌尔股份。请仔细阅读本报告末页声明 Page 42/47 Table_Page 电子电子 2023 年 3 月 27 日 图表 92：华为 Vision Glass 硬件 BOM成本 部件名称 包含内容 供应商 单价(美元)数量 金额(美元)电平转换芯片 润石 0.3 1 0.3 过压过流保护芯片 微源半导体 0.2 1 0.2 信号转换芯片 龙讯 6 1 6 MCU 意法半导体 2 1 2 音频 PA 艾为电子 0.8 2 1.6 IMU陀螺仪 TDK 2 1 2 其他元器件 含电容、电阻等 其他 1 1 1 音腔喇叭 BOX 歌尔股份 1 2 2 屏幕 0.49 英寸硅基 OLED 视涯科技 40 2 80 Birdbath 光学模组 含 3M的 IQPS 价值约 10 美元，日本帝人 QWP价值约 1 美元 惠牛科技/水晶光电 25 2 50 结构件 含中框、镜腿、保护镜等 10 连接件 含数据线、FPC、PCB 等 6.8 包装配件 含收纳盒、外包装等 4 BOM成本 165.9 ODM/OEM 15 不含税综合硬件成本 不考虑良率、运损和开模费等 180.9 资料来源：Wellsenn XR，五矿证券研究所 而在硬件成本构成方面，根据品类划分，光机（屏幕 Birdbath 光学模组）成本 130 美元，占比 71.9%，排名第 1；ODM/OEM 成本 15 美元，占比 8.3%，排名第 2；其次分别为元器件、结构件、连接件和声学件等，合计占比 19.8%。根据供应商所属国家划分，中国厂商 165.9美元，占比 91.7%；其他还包括美国、日本和意大利厂商，合计占比 8.3%。图表 93：华为 Vision Glass 硬件成本构成（按品类）图表 94：华为 Vision Glass 硬件成本构成（按国家）资料来源：Wellsenn XR，五矿证券研究所 资料来源：Wellsenn XR，五矿证券研究所 6.投资建议投资建议 6.1 投资观点投资观点 作为元宇宙的重要入口，是由现实世界映射或超越现实世界，可与现实世界交互的虚拟世界，请仔细阅读本报告末页声明 Page 43/47 Table_Page 电子电子 2023 年 3 月 27 日 为社会提供新型社会体系的数字生活空间。从元宇宙的构成要素来看，包括基础设施、人机交互、去中心化、空间计算、创作者经济、发现和体验 7 层。其中人机交互是探索元宇宙的入口，而虚拟现实、增强现实等就是其中的关键技术，通过 VR/AR 等方式，可以改变我们的交互方式，打开通往元宇宙的大门。对于目前的 VR 和 AR 产品来说，虽然相比过去有了很大进步，但是还没有真正大规模普及，其中核心原因是产品的用户体验还不够完善，成本和售价还需要进一步降低，同时内容数量和质量也需要跟进。作为提升用户体验的关键因素，高通骁龙 XR2 芯片已经能较好满足需要，但是光学和显示提升空间仍然较大，光学和显示技术也直接影响着用户的观感和购买欲望。VR 设备：对于 VR 头显而言，在一体式设计趋势下，我们认为 VR 设备的升级更多在于光学方案层面，2022 年更多厂商开始用 Pancake 替代菲涅尔透镜，有利于成本进一步降低，Pancake 已经成为主流厂商的选择，未来也有望被更多中小厂商采纳。而在显示方面，我们认为，出于对分辨率和响应速度的要求，Fast-LCD 已成为市场首选，并且为了解决显示器漏光等问题，Mini LED 背光也得以应用，中短期看，Fast-LCD 有望凭借低成本和产能优势，推动 VR 产业快速发展，继续占领市场。而硅基 OLED 从技术层面，在分辨率（3000 以上 PPI）和响应速度方面具有优势，同时由于采用硅基板替代玻璃基板，重量仅为 LCD 和 OLED 的 1/10，因此在技术层面硅基 OLED 更有优势。但是由于配套驱动芯片技术不够成熟、良率偏低等问题，整体成本仍然偏高，短期内将更多应用于高端设备中，目前采用硅基 OLED 方案的厂商依然较少，苹果 2023 年 MR设备有望采用硅基 OLED，将有利于技术发展和成本降低，推动硅基 OLED 渗透率提升。AR 设备：对于 AR 眼镜，目前分体式设计居多，我们认为，光学方案作为 AR 眼镜未来升级的重点，2022 年新品 AR 眼镜采用光波导的占据大多数，剩余厂商中 Birdbath 和自由曲面方案较为均衡，光波导目前技术壁垒高、价格贵、可量产性仍有待提高，但是凭借大 FOV、体积小、透光率高、画质高清等特点，从光学效果、外观形态以及量产前景来看，具备最好的发展潜力，有望成为 AR 眼镜的终极解决方案。显示方面也是 AR 眼镜提升的重要方向，2022 年绝大多数新品 AR 眼镜采用了硅基 OLED。作为显示屏幕的另一个发展方向，Micro LED 的优势包括功耗低、亮度高、响应速度快、对比度高、可视角度宽、寿命长等，适合搭配光波导，但是由于工艺技术难度高、外延成本较高、巨量转移的速度和良率还有待提升，短期内还难以替代硅基 OLED，但是苹果等国际巨头在该领域已经布局多年，未来随着 Micro LED 技术更加成熟，成本降低，有望逐步替代硅基 OLED。随着 VR/AR 设备技术升级、成本降低、渗透率提升，作为最直接影响用户体验的零部件，我们看好光学和显示领域的未来发展方向，相关领域厂商有望充分受益。6.2 建议关注建议关注 Pancake：三利谱；Fast-LCD 硅基 OLED：京东方 A；请仔细阅读本报告末页声明 Page 44/47 Table_Page 电子电子 2023 年 3 月 27 日 ODM：歌尔股份。6.2.1 三利谱三利谱（002876.SZ）公司专注偏光片的研发、生产与销售，主要产品为 TFT 系列偏光片和黑白系列偏光片。偏光片是液晶显示的核心器件，也是 OLED 中防止发光电极反光的功能器件，可应用于智能穿戴设备、智能手机、电脑、电视等领域。2022 年前三季度公司实现营收 16.62 亿元，YoY-5.8%；归母净利润 1.87 亿元，YoY-32.71%；扣非归母净利润 1.66 亿元，YoY-35.63%。公司在偏光片行业中拥有技术领先优势，产品包含 TN 偏光片、SN 偏光片、TFT 偏光片、OLED 偏光片和 3D 眼镜偏光片，可实现有效厚度 79m-210m 等不同厚度的覆盖，同时也可满足客户定制化需求。公司在致力于小尺寸偏光片研发与生产的同时，逐步扩大对大尺寸偏光片的产线布局；同时偏光片国产替代空间大，随着面板产业逐渐向中国聚拢，公司营收有望实现提升。公司在 VR 设备方面具备较强的技术优势，在 VR 用 Pancake 光学膜产品领域具有相关的技术储备，未来有望受益于 VR 设备销售规模的增长。6.2.2 京东方京东方 A（000725.SZ）京东方创立于 1993 年，是一家全球领先的半导体显示技术、产品和服务提供商，目前在五大主流应用领域 LCD 市占率稳居全球第一，其中细分高端市场取得进一步开拓。此外，公司近 5 年加快以“屏之物联”为战略的物联网转型步伐，形成了以半导体显示为核心，物联网创新、传感器及解决方案、MLED、智慧医工等融合发展的“1 4 N 生态链”业务架构。公司 2022 年业绩预告预计归母净利润 75-77 亿元，同比下降 70%-71%；预计扣非归母净利润亏损 18-20 亿元，同比下降 107%-108%。2022 年上半年公司显示器件业务/物联网创新业务/传感器及解决方案业务/MLED/智慧医工业务占营收的比例分别为 90.21%/14.73%/0.11%/0.45%/1.14%。公司 2022 年半导体显示业务经营业绩面临巨大压力，主要原因是受终端消费需求下降、品牌客户保守采购及行业低价竞争等影响。在柔性 AMOLED 业务上，公司 2022 年基本完成年度出货量目标，较上一年继续保持 3 成以上增长，高端产品占比提升尤为显著。2023 年，随着公司柔性 AMOLED 业务的持续成长，以及客户端份额的持续增加，公司柔性 AMOLED 产品的出货量有望继续保持大幅增长。公司积极布局 VR/AR 领域，为 VR/AR/MR 智慧终端提供的显示解决方案，包括高 PPI、高刷新率的 Fast-LCD 和超高分辨率、超高对比度的硅基 OLED 等。京东方旗下子公司云南创视界主要从事硅基 OLED 器件的生产、销售及研发，已实现 8/12 英寸产线量产。2022 年 10月，为进一步强化布局正在高速发展的 VR/AR 市场，公司拟投资 290 亿元在北京建设采用LTPO 技术的第 6 代新型半导体显示器件生产线项目，主要生产 VR 显示面板、Mini LED 直显背板等高端显示产品，设计产能 50 千片/月，项目周期在 2023 年至 2025 年，2025 年量产，2026 年满产。公司在显示领域市场稳中有进，在 VR/AR 显示领域的积极布局将有望给公司业绩增长带来新动力。6.2.3 歌尔股份歌尔股份（002241.SZ）公司主营业务为精密零组件业务、智能声学整机业务和智能硬件业务，可应用于消费电子、可穿戴设备、智能家居以及人工智能等领域。精密零组件业务覆盖声学、光学、微电子、结构件等方向，产品包含扬声器模组、触觉器件（马达）、MEMS 传感器、VR 光学器件及模组、AR 光学器件、AR 光机模组、精密结构件等。智能声学整机业务聚焦声学、语音交互和 AI，请仔细阅读本报告末页声明 Page 45/47 Table_Page 电子电子 2023 年 3 月 27 日 产品包含 TWS 耳机、有线/无线耳机、智能音响等。智能硬件业务涉足娱乐、健康和家居安防等领域，主要产品有 VR/AR、电子游戏机及配件、智能家居产品等。根据公司 2022 年度业绩预告修正公告，公司 2022 年预计归母净利润 17.10-21.37 亿元，同比下滑 50%-60%；预计扣非归母净利润 15.33-19.16 亿元，同比下滑 50%-60%。公司在电子精密零组件、智能声学整机和智能硬件制造领域深耕二十余年，具有丰富的经验、强大的技术实力和优质的客户群体。公司在发展传统智能电子产品代工业务的同时广泛布局VR/AR 设备硬件领域，已为 Meta、Pico 以及索尼等 AR/VR 领域头部厂商进行 AR/VR 设备硬件的制造。未来随着 VR/AR 设备出货量增长，公司有望充分受益。7.风险提示风险提示 1、宏观经济复苏、下游需求不及预期；2、技术研发、产品升级不及预期；3、行业竞争加剧。请仔细阅读本报告末页声明 Page 46/47 Table_Page1 2023 年 3 月 27 日 分析师声明分析师声明 作者在中国证券业协会登记为证券投资咨询(分析师)，以勤勉的职业态度，独立、客观地出具本报告。作者保证：（i）本报告所采用的数据均来自合规渠道；（ii）本报告分析逻辑基于作者的职业理解，并清晰准确地反映了作者的研究观点；（iii）本报告结论不受任何第三方的授意或影响；（iv）不存在任何利益冲突；（v）英文版翻译若与中文版有所歧义，以中文版报告为准；特此声明。投资评级说明投资评级说明 投资建议的评级标准投资建议的评级标准 报告中投资建议所涉及的评级分为股票评级和行业评级（另有说明的除外）。评级标准为报告发布日后 6 到 12 个月内的相对市场表现，也即：以报告发布日后的6到12个月内的公司股价（或行业指数）相对同期相关证券市场代表性指数的涨跌幅作为基准。其中：A 股市场以沪深300指数为基准；香港市场以恒生指数为基准；美国市场以纳斯达克综合指数或标普 500 指数为基准。评级评级 说明说明 股票评级 买入 预期个股相对同期相关证券市场代表性指数的回报在 20%及以上；增持 预期个股相对同期相关证券市场代表性指数的回报介于 5 %之间；持有 预期个股相对同期相关证券市场代表性指数的回报介于-10%5%之间；卖出 预期个股相对同期相关证券市场代表性指数的回报在-10%及以下；无评级 预期对于个股未来 6 个月市场表现与基准指数相比无明确观点。行业评级 看好 预期行业整体回报高于基准指数整体水平 10%以上；中性 预期行业整体回报介于基准指数整体水平-10%之间；看淡 预期行业整体回报低于基准指数整体水平-10%以下。一般声明一般声明 五矿证券有限公司（以下简称“本公司”）具有中国证监会批复的证券投资咨询业务资格。本公司不会因接收人收到本报告即视其为客户，本报告仅在相关法律许可的情况下发放，并仅为提供信息而发放，概不构成任何广告。本报告的版权仅为本公司所有，未经本公司书面许可，任何机构和个人不得以任何形式对本研究报告的任何部分以任何方式制作任何形式的翻版、复制或再次分发给任何其他人。如引用须联络五矿证券研究所获得许可后，再注明出处为五矿证券研究所，且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的删节和修改。在刊载或者转发本证券研究报告或者摘要的同时，也应注明本报告的发布人和发布日期及提示使用证券研究报告的风险。若未经授权刊载或者转发本报告的，本公司将保留向其追究法律责任的权利。若本公司以外的其他机构（以下简称“该机构”）发送本报告，则由该机构独自为此发送行为负责。本报告所载的资料、意见及推测仅反映本公司于发布本报告当日的判断，本报告所指的证券或投资标的的价格、价值及投资收入或将产生波动；在不同时期，本公司可发出与本报告所载资料、意见及推测不一致的报告；本公司不保证本报告所含信息保持在最新状态。同时，本公司对本报告所含信息可在不发出通知的情形下做出修改，投资者应当自行关注相应的更新或修改。本报告的作者是基于独立、客观、公正和审慎的原则制作本研究报告。本报告的信息均来源于公开资料，本公司对这些信息的准确性和完整性不作任何保证，也不保证所包含信息和建议不发生任何变更。本公司已力求报告内容的客观、公正，但文中的观点、结论和建议仅供参考，不包含作者对证券价格涨跌或市场走势的确定性判断。在任何情况下，报告中的信息或意见不构成对任何人的投资建议，投资者据此做出的任何投资决策与本公司和作者无关。在任何情况下，本公司、本公司员工或者关联机构不承诺投资者一定获利，不与投资者分享投资收益，也不对任何人因使用本报告中的任何内容所引致的任何损失负任何责任。本公司及作者在自身所知情范围内，与本报告中所评价或推荐的证券不存在法律法规要求披露或采取限制、静默措施的利益冲突。五矿证券版权所有。保留一切权利。特别声明特别声明 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小家电行业专题研究：以价换量撬动市场短期需求回暖-230327（21页）.pdf

免责声明和披露以及分析师声明是报告的一部分，请务必一起阅读。1 证券研究报告 小家电小家电 以价换量撬动市场，以价换量撬动市场，短期需求回暖短期需求回暖 华泰研究华泰研究 小家电小家电 增持增持 (维持维持)研究员 林寰宇林寰宇 SAC No.S0570518110001 SFC No.BQO796 (86)755 8249 2388 研究员 周衍峰周衍峰 SAC No.S0570521100002 (86)21 2897 2228 研究员 王森泉王森泉 SAC No.S0570518120001 SFC No.BPX070 (86)755 2398 7489 联系人 李裕恬李裕恬 SAC No.S0570121120038 (86)21 2897 2228 行业行业走势图走势图 资料来源：Wind，华泰研究 2023 年 3 月 27 日中国内地 专题研究专题研究 扫地机产品结构调整接近尾声，消费加速回归理性扫地机产品结构调整接近尾声，消费加速回归理性 2 年产品结构调整使得自清洁产品成为国内扫地机市场主流，具备较好增长韧性。根据奥维云网，2022 年国内扫地机线上零售额 100 亿元，同比 1.2%。其中，自清洁产品零售额近 85 亿元，同比 76%，占全年线上零售额的比重超八成（2021：49%）。产品端看，2022 年国内扫地机新品以小步迭代为主，产品趋于同质化。需求端看，消费信心复苏略不及预期，品牌主动降价提振需求，电商节日虹吸效应持续凸显。供需两端挤压下，国内扫地机行业加速洗牌，市场份额向头部进一步集中。根据奥维云网，2022 年扫地机线上市场 CR3、CR5 分别为 76%、93%，同比提升 0.8pct、5.2pct。自清洁技术创新小幅“降温”，扫地机以价换量有望推动需求复苏自清洁技术创新小幅“降温”，扫地机以价换量有望推动需求复苏 2023 年自清洁技术产品设计理念或将从创新走向高性价比，从供应链入手，补齐短板，找寻成本红利，为价格带下沉提供支持，进而突破成长天花板。一方面，随着 2022 年消费环境转变、一级融资市场“降温”，加之新品小幅迭代并未带来消费浪潮，我们认为自清洁技术的幻灭低谷期或已提前到来。另一方面，3 月国内扫地机正增长可期。奥维云网月度数据显示，自清洁产品均价延续去年的下滑趋势，2 月回落至 3550 元左右，而 2 月份销量同比增速转正，这意味着自清洁市场前期的以价换量逻辑正在逐步兑现。洗地机增长势头不减，新品牌格局正在形成洗地机增长势头不减，新品牌格局正在形成 根据奥维云网，2022 年洗地机线上零售额 70.96 亿元，同比 45.19%；零售量 238.28 万台，同比 54.8%。从品类构成看，2022 年洗地机在整体清洁电器线上市场销额占比达 29%。相比扫地机需求的缓慢复苏，2022 年洗地机凭借降价重回增长趋势。此外，洗地机“一家独大”的市场格局正逐步瓦解。2022 年行业龙头添可的线上销额市占率从 2021 年的 70%下降至56%。新兴品牌如追觅凭借 2022 年初全面发力洗地机品类以 12.5%全年线上销额市占率跃升至行业第二；小米、UWANT、米博、美的、海尔均获得了 2%以上的市场份额。短期洗地机市场回暖明显，长期看品牌梯队仍层次分明短期洗地机市场回暖明显，长期看品牌梯队仍层次分明 根据奥维云网，年初至 3 月 12 日，国内洗地机线上累计零售额 12.6 亿元，同比 34.08%；销售量 46.2 万台，同比 53.25%。短期看，洗地机仍是清洁电器领域最具成长潜力的细分赛道。长期看，各大品牌竞争焦点各有侧重。添可凭借丰富的产品矩阵全方位布局 1500 元到 5000 元价位段并重点发力3000 元中高端价位。其他品牌聚焦特定价位段进行错位竞争。如追觅的2022 年 H12、H12S、H12 PRO 三款机型线上销量占其全年洗地机线上销量 68%，且价位段集中于 2500-3000 元，主打“机海战术”。风险提示：宏观经济下行；地产后周期影响或超出预期；原材料价格及人民币汇率不利波动。(16)(9)(1)714Mar-22Jul-22Nov-22Mar-23(%)小家电沪深300 免责声明和披露以及分析师声明是报告的一部分，请务必一起阅读。2 小家电小家电 正文目录正文目录 扫地机：降本降价撬动市场，需求复苏在路上扫地机：降本降价撬动市场，需求复苏在路上.3 2022 年市场回顾：产品结构调整进入尾声，“马太效应”凸显.3 产品端：小步迭代，产品结构进一步调整.3 需求端：消费信心回落，扫地机消费加速回归理性.4 竞争格局：强者恒强，“马太效应”明显，供给格局再优化.7 2023 年市场展望：以价换量推动需求复苏.8 自清洁技术创新回归务实路线，降本降价周期正式开启.8 短期需求开始企稳，基本面好转的数据验证逐渐显现.9 洗地机：仍是成长赛道，竞争加剧是阶段性行为洗地机：仍是成长赛道，竞争加剧是阶段性行为.11 2022 年市场回顾：增长势头强劲，但新一轮竞争开启.11 增长势头不减，市场下沉是关键.11 新一轮竞争开启，新品牌格局正在形成.12 2023 年市场展望：做大蛋糕是主旋律，看好未来三年渗透率提升斜率.14 短期需求回暖明显，全年有望延续中高速增长.15 品牌梯队层次分明，竞争加剧或属于阶段性行为.16 报告提及公司报告提及公司.18 风险提示.18 qQqR3Z8ZbZbZuYeXwVbRaO9PoMnNoMnOjMqQpMiNoMuM8OnNvMuOtOqMwMsRtP 免责声明和披露以及分析师声明是报告的一部分，请务必一起阅读。3 小家电小家电 扫地机：降本降价撬动市场，需求复苏在路上扫地机：降本降价撬动市场，需求复苏在路上 2022 年市场回顾：产品结构调整进入尾声，年市场回顾：产品结构调整进入尾声，“马太效应”凸显“马太效应”凸显 经过经过 2 年产品结构调整，自清洁产品经受住内外部压力，成为年产品结构调整，自清洁产品经受住内外部压力，成为国内扫地机国内扫地机市场主流并展现市场主流并展现出较好的增长韧性出较好的增长韧性。根据奥维云网，2022 年国内扫地机线上零售额 100 亿元，同比 1.2%。其中，自清洁产品零售额近 85 亿元，同比 76%，占全年线上零售额的比重超八成（2021：49%）。同时，结构调整叠加国内消费信心回落带来一轮较为明显的品牌出清，强者恒强，“马太效应”凸显。产品端：产品端：小步迭代，产品结构小步迭代，产品结构进一步进一步调整调整 2022 年国内扫地机新品年国内扫地机新品以小步迭代为主以小步迭代为主，产品产品趋于趋于同质化。同质化。2021 年 9 月，科沃斯发布业内首款全能基站款扫地机器人 X1 OMNI，其卖点在于“全能，让解放双手成为可能”在自动清洗抹布的基础上，增加自动集尘功能，从而免去频繁清理尘盒的烦恼。该产品进一步满足了消费者解放双手的诉求，成为 2022 年产品创新主流方向。石头、追觅等品牌均紧随其后，在 2022 年推出全能基站产品。图表图表1：2022 年自清洁上市新品（截至年自清洁上市新品（截至 2022 年年 12 月底）月底）资料来源：奥维云网，华泰研究 品牌方品牌方合力推动下，合力推动下，2022 年年自清洁产品量、额占比快速上升自清洁产品量、额占比快速上升。2022 年头部品牌均借新品上市加大对自清洁产品的营销推广力度，扩大产品曝光度，从而引导消费预期。根据奥维云网，22Q4 自清洁产品在扫地机市场的销额占比已稳定在八成以上，销量占比维持在七成左右。我们认为，这也意味着新老产品的结构调整已进入尾声，2023 年的扫地机市场将真正步入“自清洁”时代。免责声明和披露以及分析师声明是报告的一部分，请务必一起阅读。4 小家电小家电 图表图表2：2020-2022 年自清洁产品线上零售量、额在整个扫地机器人线上规模中的占比年自清洁产品线上零售量、额在整个扫地机器人线上规模中的占比 资料来源：奥维云网，华泰研究 需求端：消费信心回落，需求端：消费信心回落，扫地机扫地机消费加速回归理性消费加速回归理性 自清洁产品的结构性增长仍难掩自清洁产品的结构性增长仍难掩消费信心消费信心不足的现实不足的现实，2022 年年下半年扫地机下半年扫地机增长放缓增长放缓。从全年走势来看，2022 年国内扫地机线上销售额同比增速震荡走低，销量同比增速则呈现出底部企稳的态势。分产品看，非自清洁产品量、额同比降幅在 2022 年进一步走扩，并拖累整体表现。自清洁产品是市场增长的主力，全年线上销量超 210 万台，同比增长近 80%。图表图表3：2020-2022 年国内扫地机器人线上销售额及增速年国内扫地机器人线上销售额及增速 资料来源：奥维云网，华泰研究 图表图表4：2017-2022 年自清洁产品与非自清洁类产品零售额（亿元）年自清洁产品与非自清洁类产品零售额（亿元）图表图表5：2017-2022 年自清洁产品与非自清洁类产品零售量（万台）年自清洁产品与非自清洁类产品零售量（万台）资料来源：奥维云网，华泰研究 资料来源：奥维云网，华泰研究 90u%0 0Pp0 Q120Q220Q320Q421Q121Q221Q321Q422Q122Q222Q322Q4自清洁零售额占比自清洁零售量占比-10%0 0P1015202530354020Q120Q220Q320Q421Q121Q221Q321Q422Q122Q222Q322Q4国内扫地机器人线上销售额（亿元）YOY020406080100120201720182019202020212022非清洁类零售额（亿元）自清洁类销售额（亿元）050100150200250300350400450500201720182019202020212022非自清洁类销量（万台）自清洁类销量（万台）免责声明和披露以及分析师声明是报告的一部分，请务必一起阅读。5 小家电小家电 分季度看，分季度看，22Q3、Q4 自清洁产品的量、额同比增长放缓自清洁产品的量、额同比增长放缓。除了基数效应，市场还面临国内消费信心回落带来的压力，尤其是自清洁产品的零售均价在 4000 元以上，高价位产品首当其冲。图表图表6：2021-2022 年自清洁类产品线上销额、销量年自清洁类产品线上销额、销量同比同比增速增速 资料来源：奥维云网、华泰研究 面对外部压力，自清洁产品主动降价提振需求，头部品牌更是自清洁产品主动降价提振需求，头部品牌更是抓住抓住 618、双、双 11 电商电商大促节大促节点积极促销。点积极促销。受国内疫情多发频发对消费市场的扰动，2022 年 3 月以来扫地机的需求景气度快速回落。在这样的背景下，618、双 11 等电商节日对推动短期需求回暖的重要性凸显。根据奥维云网，2022年618期间扫地机销售额同比 28%，双11期间扫地机销售额同比 6%，其余大部分时间线上动销低迷，电商节日的虹吸效应持续凸显。图表图表7：2022 年年 618 期间扫地机销售量、额表现期间扫地机销售量、额表现 图表图表8：2022 年双年双 11 期间扫地机销售量、额表现期间扫地机销售量、额表现 资料来源：奥维云网，华泰研究 资料来源：奥维云网，华泰研究 继 2022 年 8 月科沃斯宣布将 T10 omni 降价 700 元后，石头、云鲸、追觅等其他头部主品牌陆续跟进。至 2022 年末自清洁产品均价已降至 4000 元左右。降价换来销量较快增长。22Q3、Q4 销量同比增速分别为 66%、36%，且增长势头平稳。36%00 0000P00p00!Q121Q221Q321Q422Q122Q222Q322Q4自清洁销量增速自清洁销售额增速01020304050607020年61821年61822年618扫地机销售额（亿元）扫地机销量（万台）010203040506070809020年双1121年双1122年双11扫地机销售额（亿元）扫地机销量（万台）免责声明和披露以及分析师声明是报告的一部分，请务必一起阅读。6 小家电小家电 图表图表10：2022 年各品牌主销自清洁产品的价格走势年各品牌主销自清洁产品的价格走势（单位：元）（单位：元）资料来源：奥维云网，华泰研究 图表图表11：2020-2022 年自清洁类产品的量价情况年自清洁类产品的量价情况 资料来源：奥维云网，华泰研究 除降价外，头部品牌进一步加码营销，增加产品关注度，并将除降价外，头部品牌进一步加码营销，增加产品关注度，并将抖音抖音、小红书、小红书等等垂直垂直内容平内容平台台作为品宣主战场作为品宣主战场。近年来抖音、快手等内容平台加大电商闭环生态建设，凭借优质内容连接商品和消费者，带来新一波流量红利。品牌方以新品发布为契机，先后通过内容种草、直播带货等方式提升产品曝光度，“圈粉”抢占消费者心智，最终在京东、天猫等传统电商平台以促销形式实现流量转化。依托抖音平台庞大日活用户和精准算法推荐，品牌方有效提高营销推广效率，提升触达率。截至 2022 年底，科沃斯抖音官方账户粉丝超过 200 万，石头、追觅粉丝超过 50 万。图表图表12：扫地机头部品牌抖音布局（截至扫地机头部品牌抖音布局（截至 2022 年底）年底）资料来源：抖音，华泰研究 3,0003,2003,4003,6003,8004,0004,2004,4004,6004,8005,00022M422M522M622M722M822M922M1022M1122M12科沃斯 T10 omni石头 G10S云鲸 J3追觅 S103,3003,4003,5003,6003,7003,8003,9004,0004,1004,2004,300010203040506070809010020Q120Q220Q320Q421Q121Q221Q321Q422Q122Q222Q322Q4自清洁类零售量（万台）自清洁均价 免责声明和披露以及分析师声明是报告的一部分，请务必一起阅读。7 小家电小家电 竞争格局：强者恒强，“马太效应”明显，供给格局再优化竞争格局：强者恒强，“马太效应”明显，供给格局再优化 供需两端挤压下，国内供需两端挤压下，国内扫地机行业加速洗牌，市场份额向头部扫地机行业加速洗牌，市场份额向头部进一步进一步集中。集中。根据奥维云网，2022 年扫地机线上市场 CR3、CR5 分别为 76%、93%，同比提升 0.8pct、5.2pct。其中，科沃斯全年销额市占率 40%，依旧领跑行业，龙头地位稳固。石头全年销额市占率 21%，同比提升 7.36pct，居行业第二，其新品 G10S 受到消费者的青睐，全年线上销量 26.46 万台，位居行业单品销量第一。追觅作为 2022 年扫地机线上市场的另一匹“黑马”，凭借新品 S10 实现品牌突围。2022 年追觅销额市占率 7%，同比提升 5.9pct，跻身行业第五。图表图表13：2020-2022 年扫地机线上市场年扫地机线上市场 CR5 占比占比 图表图表14：2018-2022 年头部品牌线上销额市占率年头部品牌线上销额市占率 资料来源：奥维云网，华泰研究 资料来源：奥维云网，华泰研究 2022 年头部品牌快速布局并抢占自清洁这一细分赛道，中小品牌“夹缝中求生存”年头部品牌快速布局并抢占自清洁这一细分赛道，中小品牌“夹缝中求生存”。根据奥维云网，2022 年自清洁产品市场 CR3（科沃斯、石头、云鲸）、CR5 分别为 82%、97%。企业多采取大单品战略，即从单品线上零售额来看，头部集聚效应明显。2022 年自清洁畅销机型 TOP10 中，科沃斯独占 4 款，云鲸占 2 款，石头占 2 款，追觅占 1 款。而中小品牌如晓舞仅 2 款产品在售，全年线上销售仅 5000 多万，在自清洁领域的销额市占率不足 1%。加之考虑到 2022 年非自清洁量、额同比下滑明显，我们认为，对于中小品牌而言，2022年是在夹缝中求生存的艰难时期。图表图表16：2022 年自清洁这一细分赛道的品牌份额年自清洁这一细分赛道的品牌份额 资料来源：奥维云网，华泰研究 84x 20202120220%5 %05EP 182019202020212022科沃斯石头云鲸小米追觅科沃斯42%石头22%云鲸18%追觅8%小米7%其他3%免责声明和披露以及分析师声明是报告的一部分，请务必一起阅读。8 小家电小家电 图表图表17：2022 年自清洁畅销机型销量年自清洁畅销机型销量 TOP10 机型机型 品牌品牌 销量（万台）销量（万台）销额（亿元）销额（亿元）均价（元均价（元/台）台）G10S 石头 26.46 11.98 4529 T10 OMNI 科沃斯 26.30 10.26 3900 X1 OMNI 科沃斯 24.90 13.08 5252 J2 云鲸 24.78 8.91 3596 T10 TURBO 科沃斯 18.20 6.68 3672 G10 石头 12.58 4.84 3847 S10 追觅 9.89 3.93 3978 N9 科沃斯 8.92 2.85 3194 J3 云鲸 8.57 3.98 4643 米家免洗扫拖 小米 7.83 1.74 2218 资料来源：奥维云网，华泰研究 2023 年市场展望：以价换量推动需求复苏年市场展望：以价换量推动需求复苏 我们认为，2023 年是国内扫地机市场复苏的一年，年是国内扫地机市场复苏的一年，既是消费需求的复苏，更是技术创新既是消费需求的复苏，更是技术创新回回归务实路线归务实路线，研发，研发回归回归成本减法。成本减法。一方面，经过 2022 年的发展，企业间技术/产品代差逐渐缩小；另一方面，当均价 4000 元左右的自清洁线上销量突破 200 万台后，高价位段的价格竞争趋于激烈。因此，价格带下沉，释放中端需求是市场再次突破增长天花板的必经之路。产业的破局之路在于，从供应链入手提供高性价比产品，加快向中端市场渗透。自清洁技术创新自清洁技术创新回归务实路线回归务实路线，降本降价周期正式开启降本降价周期正式开启 从技术从技术研发研发看，看，2022 年是自清洁技术年是自清洁技术较为着重迭代创新较为着重迭代创新的一年，预计的一年，预计 2023 年将年将逐步走向逐步走向成熟。成熟。根据技术成熟度曲线，一项技术创新从诞生到最终成熟大致会经历创新萌发期、过热期、幻灭低谷期、复苏期和生产力成熟期 5 个阶段。正如我们预测的，2022 年初自清洁技术正处在创新萌芽的中后期，2022 年会“从底层开发转向场景完善”。而随着 2022 年消费环境转变、一级融资市场“降温”，加之新品小幅迭代并未带来消费浪潮，我们认为自清洁技术的幻灭低谷期或已提前到来。图表图表18：2023 年新品在年新品在 2022 年的产品基础上继续小步迭代，并逐步走向成熟年的产品基础上继续小步迭代，并逐步走向成熟 资料来源：科沃斯、石头科技、云鲸官网，华泰研究 我们认为，2023 年自清洁技术产品设计理念或将从创新走向高性价比，从供应链入手给用年自清洁技术产品设计理念或将从创新走向高性价比，从供应链入手给用户提供高性价比产品。户提供高性价比产品。2022 年新品反响一般或已表明自清洁技术遭遇阶段性发展瓶颈，另一方面自清洁产品的价格带一直处于高位，中端市场红利并未被充分挖掘。故头部企业或将在 2023 年转向补齐供应链短板，找寻成本红利，为价格带下沉提供支持，进而突破成长天花板。G10SG10S PureG10S PureX1 OMNIX1 PRO OMNIT10 OMNIT20 PROT20 PRO发布时间2022.32023.22021.92022.92022.42023.3售价409939994684559933994199导航技术LDS激光导航LDS激光导航dToF导航dToF导航避障技术视觉避障 结构光结构光避障视觉避障3D结构光避障其他自动清洗抹布水箱自动补水基站自清洁自动集尘自动除菌/抑菌选配选配自动热/冷风烘干选配自动上下水选配选配选配选配选配选配石头石头科沃斯科沃斯机身音视频通话基座视觉避障 结构光dToF导航 免责声明和披露以及分析师声明是报告的一部分，请务必一起阅读。9 小家电小家电 图表图表19：自清洁和非自清洁产品的线上价格带相差悬殊自清洁和非自清洁产品的线上价格带相差悬殊（单位：元）（单位：元）资料来源：奥维云网，华泰研究 短期需求开始企稳短期需求开始企稳，基本面好转的数据验证逐渐显现，基本面好转的数据验证逐渐显现 跟踪春节后高频数据，我们发现随着春节因素的消化，国内扫地机线上市场出现回暖迹象。跟踪春节后高频数据，我们发现随着春节因素的消化，国内扫地机线上市场出现回暖迹象。根据奥维云网，年初至 3 月 12 日，国内扫地机器人线上零售额超 13 亿元，同比-15%；销售量约 44 万台，同比-18%。其中，自清洁产品销售额超 11 亿元，同比持平；销售量约 31万台，同比 12%。周度高频数据显示，春节因素消除后（23 年春节假期为 W4&5，22 年春节假期为 W6），扫地机国内线上整体销额降幅有所收窄。自清洁对拉动整体量、额降幅收窄发挥着重要贡献。图表图表20：自清洁拉动扫地机整体自清洁拉动扫地机整体销额销额降幅收窄降幅收窄 资料来源：奥维云网、华泰研究 389513341,0001,5002,0002,5003,0003,5004,0004,50020Q120Q220Q320Q421Q121Q221Q321Q422Q122Q222Q322Q4自清洁均价非自清洁均价4.09 4.85 4.90 5.62 5.33 5.55 5.82 5.39 4.87 4.28 4.21 3.84 4.19 4.09-45%-40%-35%-30%-25%-20%-15%-10%-5%023456722w47-w5022w48-w5122w49-w5222w50-23w122w51-23w222w52-23w323w1-423w2-523w3-623w4-723w5-823w6-923w7-1023w8-11扫地机线上零售额（亿元）yoy 免责声明和披露以及分析师声明是报告的一部分，请务必一起阅读。10 小家电小家电 基本面好转的数据验证逐渐显现基本面好转的数据验证逐渐显现，3 月国内扫地机正增长可期。月国内扫地机正增长可期。根据奥维云网月度数据，自清洁产品均价延续去年的下滑趋势，2 月回落至 3550 元左右，而 2 月份销量同比增速转正，这意味着自清洁市场前期的以价换量逻辑正在逐步兑现。新品方面，石头 2 月中旬上市的G10S Prue 和科沃斯 3 月初上市的 T20 PRO，定价均在 4000 元左右。性价比新品的加持叠加低基数，我们认为，3 月国内扫地机市场或能迎来正增长，同时也看好 618 行情。图表图表21：扫地机扫地机以价换量逻辑正在逐步兑现以价换量逻辑正在逐步兑现 资料来源：奥维云网、华泰研究 14.99 7.17 9.89 10.16 22.04 30.98 6.90 11.27 12.72 27.65 44.62 13.52 13.82 10.95 3,0003,2003,4003,6003,8004,0004,2004,4000510152025303540455022M122M222M322M422M522M622M722M822M922M1022M1122M1223M123M2销量（万台）均价（元）免责声明和披露以及分析师声明是报告的一部分，请务必一起阅读。11 小家电小家电 洗地机：仍是成长赛道，竞争加剧是阶段性行为洗地机：仍是成长赛道，竞争加剧是阶段性行为 2022 年市场回顾：增长势头强劲，但新一轮竞争开启年市场回顾：增长势头强劲，但新一轮竞争开启 面对国内消费走弱，面对国内消费走弱，2022 年年洗地机依旧实现中高速增长，并成为清洁电器领域的中坚力量。洗地机依旧实现中高速增长，并成为清洁电器领域的中坚力量。在消费信心回落的大背景下，洗地机市场通过降价提振短期动销，并推动需求的持续复苏。此外，随着洗地机配套供应链的日益完善，2022 年行业涌现出一批有产品实力的新品牌且占据一定市场份额，新品牌格局正在形成。增长势头不减，增长势头不减，市场下沉市场下沉是关键是关键 即使在消费信心回落的大背景下，即使在消费信心回落的大背景下，2022 年洗地机增长势头不减，行业仍实现量价齐升。年洗地机增长势头不减，行业仍实现量价齐升。根据奥维云网，2022 年洗地机线上零售额 70.96 亿元，同比 45.19%；零售量 238.28 万台，同比 54.8%。从品类构成看，2022 年洗地机在整个清洁电器线上市场的销额占比达 29%，已成长为行业中最具成长潜力的细分赛道。图表图表22：2020-2022 年洗地机线上零售额及渗透率年洗地机线上零售额及渗透率 资料来源：奥维云网，华泰研究 降价降价有效有效推动洗地机市场需求推动洗地机市场需求持续、平稳持续、平稳复苏。复苏。相比扫地机需求的缓慢复苏，2022 年洗地机在经历短暂的冲击后凭借降价重回增长趋势。分季度看，21Q4 洗地机价格已有高位回落的迹象，2022 年洗地机价格重心加速下移，2022 年下半年洗地机均价已低于 3000 元。图表图表23：2020-2022 洗地机线上均价走势洗地机线上均价走势 资料来源：奥维云网，华泰研究 1%3%5 $)12%0%5 %05101520253020Q120Q220Q320Q421Q121Q221Q321Q422Q122Q222Q322Q4洗地机零售额（亿）洗地机在清洁电器的渗透率2872300530833027295632563266315931043125290528652,5002,6002,7002,8002,9003,0003,1003,2003,3003,4003,50020Q120Q220Q320Q421Q121Q221Q321Q422Q122Q222Q322Q4洗地机均价（元）免责声明和披露以及分析师声明是报告的一部分，请务必一起阅读。12 小家电小家电 图表图表24：相较于相较于 2021 年，年，2022 洗地机线上价格带下沉至洗地机线上价格带下沉至 2500-2999 元价格带元价格带 资料来源：奥维云网，华泰研究 分品牌看，分品牌看，添可引领降价潮。添可引领降价潮。2022 年添可洗地机的主力机型是芙万 2.0（LED）、3.0 和 slim（增配版），根据奥维云网，上述三款机型全年线上销售额总计 29.66 亿元，占同期添可线上销售额 74%。其中，2.0（LED）和 slim（增配版）的发布率先开启降价潮。以 2.0（LED）为例，其 ASP 从 2022 年初的 3700 元左右一路降至年末的 3000 元左右，降幅高达 20%。值得注意的是，3000 元价格带曾是追觅、小米等竞品的主战场。图表图表25：2022 年添可线上在售机型销售额年添可线上在售机型销售额 图表图表26：2022 年添可年添可 2.0（LED）和）和 3.0（LCD）价格走势）价格走势（单位：元）（单位：元）资料来源：奥维云网，华泰研究 资料来源：奥维云网，华泰研究 新一轮竞争开启新一轮竞争开启，新品牌格局正在形成，新品牌格局正在形成 2022 年洗地机市场涌现出更多有产品竞争力的新品牌，年洗地机市场涌现出更多有产品竞争力的新品牌，打破打破“一家独大”的寡头格局。“一家独大”的寡头格局。2022年行业龙头添可的线上销额市占率从 2021 年的 70%下降至 56%。而一些新品牌如追觅、小米、米博等通过“小步快跑”式的迭代迎合细分人群需求，抢占了一定的市场份额。其中，追觅在 2022 年初全面发力洗地机品类并站稳脚跟，最终以 12.5%的全年线上销额市占率跃升至行业第二。此外，小米、UWANT、米博、美的、海尔均获得了 2%以上的市场份额。0%5 %05EPy9-800-9991000-14991500-19992000-24992500-29993000-39994000-49995000 （元）20212022销量占比13.929.006.743.011.971.750.892.650246810121416添可2.0（LED）添可3.0添可slim（增配版）添可2.0（LCD）添可FW25M-01添可slim添可station其他型号线上销额（亿元）2,5003,0003,5004,0004,5005,00021M421M521M621M721M821M921M1021M1121M1222M122M222M322M422M522M622M722M822M922M1022M1122M12添可2.0（LED）添可3.0 免责声明和披露以及分析师声明是报告的一部分，请务必一起阅读。13 小家电小家电 图表图表27：2021 年洗地机线上销额市占率前五品牌年洗地机线上销额市占率前五品牌 图表图表28：2022 年洗地机线上销额市占率前五品牌年洗地机线上销额市占率前五品牌 资料来源：奥维云网，华泰研究 资料来源：奥维云网，华泰研究 图表图表29：21Q3 以来国内洗地机新品牌（添可除外）线上销额市占率情况以来国内洗地机新品牌（添可除外）线上销额市占率情况 资料来源：奥维云网，华泰研究 新品牌格局的形成表明供应链的完善和添可产品优势新品牌格局的形成表明供应链的完善和添可产品优势减弱减弱。2020 年初，行业引领者添可凭借产业链一体化优势，自研自产创新性推出洗地机这一新品，其他跟随者囿于干湿两用电机的技术瓶颈，产品力不足。经过两年发展，跟随者逐渐完成了技术攻关，行业涌现出苏州尚腾、昆山鑫泰利、东莞长城等代工企业以及石头、追觅、杉川等产品技术方案商，上下游产业相互支持、合作。因此，追觅、小米、石头、米博等诸多企业得以在 2022 年陆续推出自家洗地机。同时，各企业通过在添可洗地机基础上对产品进行的差异化、细分式迭代，瞄准各自的细分市场，迎合不同人群的需求。添可70%必胜10%石头2%海尔2%滴水1%其他15%添可56%追觅13%必胜4%小米3%美的3%其他21%0%2%4%6%8 !Q321Q422Q122Q222Q322Q4石头小米追觅uwant米博 免责声明和披露以及分析师声明是报告的一部分，请务必一起阅读。14 小家电小家电 图表图表30：2022 年洗地机各品牌主要新品对比图年洗地机各品牌主要新品对比图 资料来源：公司官网，华泰研究 然而然而行业行业也不可避免也不可避免出现同质化现象。出现同质化现象。洗地机的供应链瓶颈问题得以解决后，产品设计方面出现了“抄袭”的短视行为，较多新品牌产品与头部品牌产品高度类似。但行业对“抄袭”定义的界限相对模糊，导致恶意竞争难以规避。2022 年以来，添可发起多起洗地机专利侵权诉讼，涉及追觅、必胜、小狗等多个品牌。以添可与追觅的专利纠纷案为例，追觅有四款产品被判侵权，其中包括 618 期间大卖的 H12 机型。追觅承诺 10 月 30 日前停止生产、销售侵权产品。图表图表31：2022 年年 11 月宁波中院裁定追觅部分洗地机产品侵害添可的专利，并停止销售月宁波中院裁定追觅部分洗地机产品侵害添可的专利，并停止销售 资料来源：中国专利网，华泰研究 2023 年市场展望：做大蛋糕是主旋律，年市场展望：做大蛋糕是主旋律，看好未来三年渗透率提升斜率看好未来三年渗透率提升斜率 我们认为，洗地机行业虽然于去年开始新一轮品牌竞争，但仍可视为一个具备成长属性的大赛道。2022 年国内洗地机城镇家庭渗透率不足 1.5%，随着产品功能配置的成熟以及成本规模效益的释放，加之降价加快产品的推广和普及，尤其是走向广大中等收入家庭。我们看好未来 3 年洗地机渗透率的提升斜率。免责声明和披露以及分析师声明是报告的一部分，请务必一起阅读。15 小家电小家电 短期需求回暖明显，全年有望延续中高速增长短期需求回暖明显，全年有望延续中高速增长 短期看，短期看，剔除春节因素，洗地机线上市场增长韧性足，洗地机仍是清洁电器领域最具成长剔除春节因素，洗地机线上市场增长韧性足，洗地机仍是清洁电器领域最具成长潜力的细分赛道。潜力的细分赛道。根据奥维云网，年初至 3 月 12 日，国内洗地机线上累计零售额 12.6 亿元，同比 34.08%；销售量 46.2 万台，同比 53.25%。洗地机市场延续去年迅猛增长的势头，销量、销额均快速增长。价格方面，洗地机同样延续去年价格快速回落的趋势，价格带加快下沉，年初以来，市场均价滑落到 2728 元，同比-12.51%。图表图表32：洗地机线上增长洗地机线上增长韧劲足韧劲足 资料来源：奥维云网、华泰研究 中长期看，洗地机已进入成长期，中长期看，洗地机已进入成长期，渗透率提升取代产品创新成为行业增长的底层逻辑。渗透率提升取代产品创新成为行业增长的底层逻辑。2020-2022 年连续三年的高增长证明洗地机的产品力得到了国内消费者的认可，并且消费习惯已经养成。展望未来，我们认为洗地机的基础功能配置已经趋于完善，行业将从产品创新驱动转向需求拉动，即加快产品渗透，抢占空白市场。根据我们的测算，截至 2022 年底，我国洗地机累计销量约 430 万台，并且以家庭首次购买为主。2022 年国内洗地机城镇家庭渗透率不足 1.5%。考虑到清洁为国内家庭的刚需，洗地机具备普适性，国内洗地机的渗透率存在较大提升空间。参照吸尘器在国内的渗透率提升曲线，我们预判 2023-2025 年国内洗地机销量 cagr=36%，而同期价格降幅偏温和。3.65 4.24 4.41 5.00 5.33 5.25 5.24 5.15 4.53 4.20 4.12 3.88 4.00 3.99-20%-10%0 0Pp%3.03.54.04.55.05.522w47-w5022w48-w5122w49-w5222w50-23w122w51-23w222w52-23w323w1-423w2-523w3-623w4-723w5-823w6-923w7-1023w8-11洗地机线上零售额（亿元）yoy 免责声明和披露以及分析师声明是报告的一部分，请务必一起阅读。16 小家电小家电 图表图表33：2015-2022 年洗地机线上年销量及家庭渗透率测算年洗地机线上年销量及家庭渗透率测算 数据来源数据来源 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023E 2024E 2025E 清清 洁洁 电电 器器 吸尘器线上年销量（万台）奥维云网 532 734 1136 1095 1186 1456 1501 yoy 38U%-4%8#%3%洗地机线上年销量（万台）奥维云网 38 154 238 315 447 596 yoy 305U2.17B.013.33%吸尘器累计销量（万台）532 1266 2402 3497 4684 6140 7641 洗地机累计销量（万台）0 38 192 430 745 1191 1787 人人 口口 指指 标标 城镇人口（万人）wind 79302 81924 84343 86433 88426 90220 91425 91425 农村人口（万人）wind 59024 57308 55668 54108 52582 50992 49835 49835 平均每户人数 wind 3.10 3.10 3.09 3.08 3.08 3.07 3.07 3.07 城镇家庭户数 25581 26427 27295 28063 28710 29388 29780 29780 农村家庭户数 19040 18486 18016 17568 17072 16610 16233 16233 保保 有有 量量 吸尘器城镇家庭渗透率 不考虑更换和重叠需求 2.08%4.79%8.80.46.31 .89%.66%洗地机城镇家庭渗透率 0.00%0.13%0.64%1.44%2.50%4.00%6.00%资料来源：奥维云网，华泰研究预测 品牌梯队层次分明，竞争加剧品牌梯队层次分明，竞争加剧或或属于阶段性行为属于阶段性行为 在去年较为激烈的竞争下在去年较为激烈的竞争下，品牌梯队，品牌梯队仍保持仍保持层次分明。层次分明。在绝对规模方面，添可仍具备先发优势，品牌梯队层次分明。根据奥维云网，2022 年添可线上零售额 40 亿元，是第 2-5 名之和的 2.5 倍。而且，随着 22Q4 添可价格重心的下移，其线上销额市占率开始回升。图表图表34：2022 年不同洗地机品牌的线上零售额年不同洗地机品牌的线上零售额 图表图表35：2022 年不同洗地机品牌的线上销额市占率走势年不同洗地机品牌的线上销额市占率走势 资料来源：奥维云网，华泰研究 资料来源：奥维云网，华泰研究 39.938.92.942.092.041.861.61.531.52051015202530354045添可追觅必胜小米美的石头UWANT米博海尔线上零售额（亿元）54XIY%0 0Pp0Q122Q222Q322Q4添可必胜石头小米追觅uwant其他 免责声明和披露以及分析师声明是报告的一部分，请务必一起阅读。17 小家电小家电 结合品牌的定位、销售策略看，线上线上 top5 的竞争焦点各有侧重的竞争焦点各有侧重。根据奥维云网对 2022 年不同价位段销量居前 21 款机型（销量之和占线上整体的 70%）的统计，我们发现添可拥有最丰富的产品矩阵，并且从1500元到5000 元进行了全方位布局，其中公司重点发力3000 元的中高端价位，比如芙万 station 凭借“空间站”概念引领高端产品。反观其他品牌，反观其他品牌，SKU偏单一，更多聚焦特定价位段进行错位竞争。偏单一，更多聚焦特定价位段进行错位竞争。以追觅为例，2022 年 H12、H12S、H12 PRO三款机型线上销量合计 19 万台，占追觅全年洗地机线上销量 68%，且价位段集中于2500-3000 元。图表图表36：2022 年不同产品在各价位段的销量及均价表现年不同产品在各价位段的销量及均价表现 资料来源：奥维云网，华泰研究 图表图表37：添可洗地机从添可洗地机从 1.0 不断迭代到不断迭代到 3.0 资料来源：钛媒体，华泰研究 综上所述，我们认为在新一轮品牌竞争中，作为国内洗地机市场的领导者，添可的产品平台化开发优势、成本规模优势值得重视。1.651.471.131.020.450.430.430.340.330.262,0002,5003,0003,5004,0004,5005,0005,5006,0000.00.20.40.60.81.01.21.41.61.8T10 omniG10SX1 omniJ3J2X1 pro omni免洗扫拖机器人T10 TURBOS10全能扫拖洗地机1s畅销机型销售额（亿元）均价（元）-右轴 免责声明和披露以及分析师声明是报告的一部分，请务必一起阅读。18 小家电小家电 报告提及公司报告提及公司 图表图表38：报告提及公司上市信息概览报告提及公司上市信息概览 公司公司 上市信息上市信息 科沃斯 603486 CH 石头科技 688169 CH 美的集团 000333 CH 海尔智家 600690 CH 云鲸 未上市 追觅 未上市 必胜 未上市 小米集团 1810 HK 资料来源：Bloomberg，华泰研究 风险提示风险提示 1）宏观经济下行。如果国内宏观经济增速大幅低于预期，居民人均可支配收入将受到大幅冲击，行业可能出现供大求的局面，可能导致竞争环境恶化、产业链盈利能力下滑，影响家电企业收入及盈利增长。2）地产后周期影响或超出预期。如果地产销售持续趋弱及价格出现不利波动，可能导致居民财富杠杆的反转，进而导致居民消费能力和消费意愿的下降，导致家电需求持续低于预期、行业增速低于预期。3）原材料价格及人民币汇率不利波动。家电产品原材料占比较大，终端价格传导机制依托新产品的更新换代，因此原材料涨价速度过快或幅度过大时，成本提速高于价格提速，整体毛利率出现下滑，进而可能导致企业业绩增长受到明显影响。同时受到人民币汇率影响，在汇兑损益、投资收益、公允价值变动损益科目出现较大的不利波动，或将导致企业业绩不及预期。免责声明和披露以及分析师声明是报告的一部分，请务必一起阅读。19 小家电小家电 免责免责声明声明 分析师声明分析师声明 本人，林寰宇、周衍峰、王森泉，兹证明本报告所表达的观点准确地反映了分析师对标的证券或发行人的个人意见；彼以往、现在或未来并无就其研究报告所提供的具体建议或所表迖的意见直接或间接收取任何报酬。一般声明及披露一般声明及披露 本报告由华泰证券股份有限公司（已具备中国证监会批准的证券投资咨询业务资格，以下简称“本公司”）制作。本报告所载资料是仅供接收人的严格保密资料。本报告仅供本公司及其客户和其关联机构使用。本公司不因接收人收到本报告而视其为客户。本报告基于本公司认为可靠的、已公开的信息编制，但本公司及其关联机构(以下统称为“华泰”)对该等信息的准确性及完整性不作任何保证。本报告所载的意见、评估及预测仅反映报告发布当日的观点和判断。在不同时期，华泰可能会发出与本报告所载意见、评估及预测不一致的研究报告。同时，本报告所指的证券或投资标的的价格、价值及投资收入可能会波动。以往表现并不能指引未来，未来回报并不能得到保证，并存在损失本金的可能。华泰不保证本报告所含信息保持在最新状态。华泰对本报告所含信息可在不发出通知的情形下做出修改，投资者应当自行关注相应的更新或修改。本公司不是 FINRA 的注册会员，其研究分析师亦没有注册为 FINRA 的研究分析师/不具有 FINRA 分析师的注册资格。华泰力求报告内容客观、公正，但本报告所载的观点、结论和建议仅供参考，不构成购买或出售所述证券的要约或招揽。该等观点、建议并未考虑到个别投资者的具体投资目的、财务状况以及特定需求，在任何时候均不构成对客户私人投资建议。投资者应当充分考虑自身特定状况，并完整理解和使用本报告内容，不应视本报告为做出投资决策的唯一因素。对依据或者使用本报告所造成的一切后果，华泰及作者均不承担任何法律责任。任何形式的分享证券投资收益或者分担证券投资损失的书面或口头承诺均为无效。除非另行说明，本报告中所引用的关于业绩的数据代表过往表现，过往的业绩表现不应作为日后回报的预示。华泰不承诺也不保证任何预示的回报会得以实现，分析中所做的预测可能是基于相应的假设，任何假设的变化可能会显著影响所预测的回报。华泰及作者在自身所知情的范围内，与本报告所指的证券或投资标的不存在法律禁止的利害关系。在法律许可的情况下，华泰可能会持有报告中提到的公司所发行的证券头寸并进行交易，为该公司提供投资银行、财务顾问或者金融产品等相关服务或向该公司招揽业务。华泰的销售人员、交易人员或其他专业人士可能会依据不同假设和标准、采用不同的分析方法而口头或书面发表与本报告意见及建议不一致的市场评论和/或交易观点。华泰没有将此意见及建议向报告所有接收者进行更新的义务。华泰的资产管理部门、自营部门以及其他投资业务部门可能独立做出与本报告中的意见或建议不一致的投资决策。投资者应当考虑到华泰及/或其相关人员可能存在影响本报告观点客观性的潜在利益冲突。投资者请勿将本报告视为投资或其他决定的唯一信赖依据。有关该方面的具体披露请参照本报告尾部。本报告并非意图发送、发布给在当地法律或监管规则下不允许向其发送、发布的机构或人员，也并非意图发送、发布给因可得到、使用本报告的行为而使华泰违反或受制于当地法律或监管规则的机构或人员。本报告版权仅为本公司所有。未经本公司书面许可，任何机构或个人不得以翻版、复制、发表、引用或再次分发他人(无论整份或部分)等任何形式侵犯本公司版权。如征得本公司同意进行引用、刊发的，需在允许的范围内使用，并需在使用前获取独立的法律意见，以确定该引用、刊发符合当地适用法规的要求，同时注明出处为“华泰证券研究所”，且不得对本报告进行任何有悖原意的引用、删节和修改。本公司保留追究相关责任的权利。所有本报告中使用的商标、服务标记及标记均为本公司的商标、服务标记及标记。中国香港中国香港 本报告由华泰证券股份有限公司制作,在香港由华泰金融控股（香港）有限公司向符合证券及期货条例及其附属法律规定的机构投资者和专业投资者的客户进行分发。华泰金融控股（香港）有限公司受香港证券及期货事务监察委员会监管，是华泰国际金融控股有限公司的全资子公司，后者为华泰证券股份有限公司的全资子公司。在香港获得本报告的人员若有任何有关本报告的问题,请与华泰金融控股（香港）有限公司联系。免责声明和披露以及分析师声明是报告的一部分，请务必一起阅读。20 小家电小家电 香港香港-重要监管披露重要监管披露 华泰金融控股（香港）有限公司的雇员或其关联人士没有担任本报告中提及的公司或发行人的高级人员。有关重要的披露信息，请参华泰金融控股（香港）有限公司的网页 https:/.hk/stock_disclosure 其他信息请参见下方“美国“美国-重要监管披露”重要监管披露”。美国美国 在美国本报告由华泰证券（美国）有限公司向符合美国监管规定的机构投资者进行发表与分发。华泰证券（美国）有限公司是美国注册经纪商和美国金融业监管局（FINRA）的注册会员。对于其在美国分发的研究报告，华泰证券（美国）有限公司根据1934 年证券交易法（修订版）第 15a-6 条规定以及美国证券交易委员会人员解释，对本研究报告内容负责。华泰证券（美国）有限公司联营公司的分析师不具有美国金融监管（FINRA）分析师的注册资格，可能不属于华泰证券（美国）有限公司的关联人员，因此可能不受 FINRA 关于分析师与标的公司沟通、公开露面和所持交易证券的限制。华泰证券（美国）有限公司是华泰国际金融控股有限公司的全资子公司，后者为华泰证券股份有限公司的全资子公司。任何直接从华泰证券（美国）有限公司收到此报告并希望就本报告所述任何证券进行交易的人士，应通过华泰证券（美国）有限公司进行交易。美国美国-重要监管披露重要监管披露 分析师林寰宇、周衍峰、王森泉本人及相关人士并不担任本报告所提及的标的证券或发行人的高级人员、董事或顾问。分析师及相关人士与本报告所提及的标的证券或发行人并无任何相关财务利益。本披露中所提及的“相关人士”包括 FINRA 定义下分析师的家庭成员。分析师根据华泰证券的整体收入和盈利能力获得薪酬，包括源自公司投资银行业务的收入。华泰证券股份有限公司、其子公司和/或其联营公司,及/或不时会以自身或代理形式向客户出售及购买华泰证券研究所覆盖公司的证券/衍生工具，包括股票及债券（包括衍生品）华泰证券研究所覆盖公司的证券/衍生工具，包括股票及债券（包括衍生品）。华泰证券股份有限公司、其子公司和/或其联营公司,及/或其高级管理层、董事和雇员可能会持有本报告中所提到的任何证券（或任何相关投资）头寸，并可能不时进行增持或减持该证券（或投资）。因此，投资者应该意识到可能存在利益冲突。评级说明评级说明 投资评级基于分析师对报告发布日后 6 至 12 个月内行业或公司回报潜力（含此期间的股息回报）相对基准表现的预期（A 股市场基准为沪深 300 指数，香港市场基准为恒生指数，美国市场基准为标普 500 指数），具体如下：行业评级行业评级 增持：增持：预计行业股票指数超越基准 中性：中性：预计行业股票指数基本与基准持平 减持：减持：预计行业股票指数明显弱于基准 公司评级公司评级 买入：买入：预计股价超越基准 15%以上 增持：增持：预计股价超越基准 5%持有：持有：预计股价相对基准波动在-15%5%之间 卖出：卖出：预计股价弱于基准 15%以上 暂停评级：暂停评级：已暂停评级、目标价及预测，以遵守适用法规及/或公司政策 无评级：无评级：股票不在常规研究覆盖范围内。投资者不应期待华泰提供该等证券及/或公司相关的持续或补充信息 免责声明和披露以及分析师声明是报告的一部分，请务必一起阅读。21 小家电小家电 法律实体法律实体披露披露 中国中国：华泰证券股份有限公司具有中国证监会核准的“证券投资咨询”业务资格，经营许可证编号为：91320000704041011J 香港香港：华泰金融控股（香港）有限公司具有香港证监会核准的“就证券提供意见”业务资格，经营许可证编号为：AOK809 美国美国：华泰证券（美国）有限公司为美国金融业监管局（FINRA）成员，具有在美国开展经纪交易商业务的资格，经营业务许可编号为：CRD#:298809/SEC#:8-70231 华泰证券股份有限公司华泰证券股份有限公司 南京南京 北京北京 南京市建邺区江东中路228号华泰证券广场1号楼/邮政编码：210019 北京市西城区太平桥大街丰盛胡同28号太平洋保险大厦A座18层/邮政编码：100032 电话：86 25 83389999/传真：86 25 83387521 电话：86 10 63211166/传真：86 10 63211275 电子邮件：ht- 电子邮件：ht- 深圳深圳 上海上海 深圳市福田区益田路5999号基金大厦10楼/邮政编码：518017 上海市浦东新区东方路18号保利广场E栋23楼/邮政编码：200120 电话：86 755 82493932/传真：86 755 82492062 电话：86 21 28972098/传真：86 21 28972068 电子邮件：ht- 电子邮件：ht- 华泰金融控股（香港）有限公司华泰金融控股（香港）有限公司 香港中环皇后大道中 99 号中环中心 58 楼 5808-12 室 电话： 852-3658-6000/传真： 852-2169-0770 电子邮件： http:/.hk 华泰证券华泰证券（美国美国）有限公司有限公司 美国纽约公园大道 280 号 21 楼东（纽约 10017）电话： 212-763-8160/传真： 917-725-9702 电子邮件:Huataihtsc- http:/www.htsc- 版权所有2023年华泰证券股份有限公司

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中金岭南-公司研究报告-全产业链布局铜领域铅锌龙头扬帆再起-230327（46页）.pdf

1 截止Ta公司报告公司报告公司深度研究公司深度研究 中金岭南（中金岭南（000060）有色金属 全产业链布局铜领域，铅锌龙头扬帆再起全产业链布局铜领域，铅锌龙头扬帆再起 投资要点：投资要点：公司在铅锌采选领域拥有较强的资源型竞争壁垒、布局“铜矿-铜冶炼”产业链拓宽企业护城河、深耕高端铝型材及新材料增强核心竞争力，以及新一轮国改行动下央国企估值提升预期，有望成为世界一流的多金属国际化全产业链资源公司，公司价值有待重估。铅锌铜资源全球布局，迈蒙矿资源禀赋优异、铜精矿放量在即铅锌铜资源全球布局，迈蒙矿资源禀赋优异、铜精矿放量在即 公司资源储量大、布局海内外，目前所属矿山保有金属资源储量锌776万吨，铅358万吨，银6100吨，铜147万吨，钴20807吨，金80099千克，镍9.24万吨。主力矿山凡口铅锌矿储量大、周边探储成果显著，目前具备18万吨/年铅锌金属量产能，仍有较大增产增储空间。多米尼加迈蒙矿资源禀赋优异，铜金属含量高，目前年产200万吨采选工程稳步推进，项目达产后预计每年生产各类金属6万吨，成为公司盈利增长新引擎。全产业链布局铜领域，打造第二增长极全产业链布局铜领域，打造第二增长极 公司2022年参与东营方圆有色重组并正式接管，获得年产70万吨阴极铜产能，在2022年底于广东拍得两处铜矿探矿权，“铜矿-铜冶炼”全产业链布局，打造公司第二增长极。在逆全球化趋势加剧、资源民族主义抬头背景下，矿产资源安全尤为重要，公司在增采增储、资源自主可控方面竞争优势突出，基本面扎实、成长性显著。多元品种齐发展，打造多金属国际化资源公司多元品种齐发展，打造多金属国际化资源公司 华加日铝业深耕铝型材领域30余载，拥有铝加工完整产业链，年产铝型材25000吨，产品定位高端，在细分领域持续创造价值增量；中金科技依托公司资源型企业平台，是全球重要的碱性电池锌粉供应商之一。盈利盈利预测、估值与评级预测、估值与评级 我们预计，2022-24年公司营收分别为544.18/580.81/600.86亿元，3年CAGR为10.9%；归母净利分别为13.19/18.58/28.87亿元；3年CAGR为35.1%。EPS分别为0.35/0.5/0.77元。绝对估值法测得公司每股价值7.3元，可比公司2023年平均PE为12.1倍，综合相对估值与绝对估值结果，我们给予公司目标价7.13元，首次覆盖给予“买入”评级。风险风险提示：提示：宏观经济、海外矿投产、矿山资源储备、财务并表等风险。Table_First|Table_Summary|Table_Excel1 财务数据和估值财务数据和估值 20202020A A 2022021 1A A 2022E2022E 2023E2023E 2 2024E024E 营业收入（百万元）30226 44449 54418 58081 60086 增长率（%）32.6 47.1 23.4 6.7 3.5 EBITDA（百万元）2096.39 2415.58 4150.51 4889.07 6108.60 净利润（百万元）995 1172 1319 1858 2887 增长率（%）16.8 17.7 12.6 40.8 55.4 EPS（元/股）0.27 0.31 0.35 0.50 0.77 市盈率（P/E）18.0 15.3 13.6 9.6 6.2 市净率（P/B）1.5 1.4 1.3 1.2 1.1 EV/EBITDA 11.40 10.52 6.48 4.90 3.27 数据来源：公司公告、iFinD，国联证券研究所预测；股价为 2023 年 3 月 24 日收盘价 证券研究报告 2023 年 03 月 27 日 投资投资评级评级：行行 业：业：工业金属工业金属 投资建议：投资建议：买入买入/（首次评级）（首次评级）当前价格：当前价格：4.79 元 目标价格：目标价格：7.13 元 基本数据基本数据 总股本/流通股本（百万股）3,738/3,737 流通 A 股市值（百万元）17,902 每股净资产（元）3.52 资产负债率（%）54.04 一年内最高/最低（元）4.89/3.85 股价相对走势股价相对走势 分析师：骆可桂 执业证书编号：S0590522110001 邮箱： 联系人 胡章胜 邮箱： 相关报告相关报告 请务必阅读报告末页的重要声明 -25%-20%-15%-10%-5%0%中金岭南沪深300指数 2 请务必阅读报告末页的重要声明 公司报告公司深度研究公司报告公司深度研究 投资聚焦投资聚焦 核心逻辑核心逻辑 公司收购东营方圆有色，获得年产70万吨阴极铜产能，同时多米尼加迈蒙矿资源禀赋优异，铜金属含量高，公司打造“铜矿-铜”全产业链，由铅锌主业向铜领域延伸，有望打造世界一流的多金属国际化全产业链资源公司。不同于不同于市场的观点市场的观点 市场普遍认为中金岭南是一家以铅锌为主业的资源公司，同时资源端储量增长预期不高。我们认为，公司传统铅锌主业随着找探矿项目与技改项目的实施，铅锌产量有望迎来增长，持续增厚公司利润，而延伸布局铜全产业链打造第二成长极，公司正逐步迈向多金属国际化全产业链资源龙头企业。鉴于公司增采增储、多金属覆盖、全产业链布局，且在高端铝型材及新材料加工领域凸显亮点，我们认为公司估我们认为公司估值范式值范式有待有待重筑，当前股价尚未重筑，当前股价尚未充分充分体现公司价值，我们予以体现公司价值，我们予以推荐。推荐。核心假设核心假设 产量方面：产量方面：公司以资源战略为引领，一方面加大自有矿权的资源勘探力度，扩大找矿成果，一方面积极寻找资源并购标的，以及获取新探矿权，在国内外参与资源竞争。我们认为公司铅锌铜等金属产量有望迎来显著增长。价格方面：价格方面：我们认为在强预期（货币政策边际宽松）与弱现实（海外衰退风险不减）双重节奏演绎下，叠加全球供给增量较少，金属价格中枢预计将上行。盈利预测盈利预测、估值与评级估值与评级 我们预计，2022-24年公司营收分别为544.18/580.81/600.86亿元，3年CAGR为10.9%；归母净利分别为13.19/18.58/28.87亿元；3年CAGR为35.1%。EPS分别为0.35/0.5/0.77元。绝对估值法测得公司每股价值7.3元，可比公司2023年平均PE为12.1倍，考虑到公司未来的成长属性，综合考虑相对估值与绝对估值结果，我们给予公司目标价7.13元，首次覆盖给予“买入”评级。投资看点投资看点 短期来看：短期来看：公司全产业链布局铜领域，打造第二增长极。中期来看：中期来看：铜端（冶炼、矿端）产能提升，铅、锌、铜持续放量，公司成为多金属全产业链资源公司。长期来看：长期来看：公司持续探矿增储，提升资源获取能力，巩固公司产业上游的主导地位，有望为世界一流的多金属国际化全产业链资源公司。qQpO2YcVcWbZpXdUNA9P9R8OpNpPmOtQeRoOtQjMoMxP8OpOnNwMnMvNvPpOoO 3 请务必阅读报告末页的重要声明 公司报告公司深度研究公司报告公司深度研究 正文目录正文目录 1.1.铅锌龙头切入铜产业链，打造多金属全产业链资源公司铅锌龙头切入铜产业链，打造多金属全产业链资源公司 .6 6 1.1.全球化布局的资源型企业.6 1.2.产品种类丰富，涵盖上游至下游多款产品.7 1.3.背靠广东国资委，国企改革再突破.9 1.4.经营业绩持续优化，2022 年净利有望创新高.12 2.2.资源端全球布局，迈蒙矿资源禀赋突出、放量在即资源端全球布局，迈蒙矿资源禀赋突出、放量在即 .1515 2.1.国内矿山扩产增效重焕生机.15 2.2.国外矿山亮点频现.20 2.3.资源端积极探索，做好铜矿项目储备.25 3.3.全产业链布局铜领域，打造公司第二增长极全产业链布局铜领域，打造公司第二增长极 .2525 3.1.收购方圆系企业，发挥自身矿产端资源优势.错误错误!未定义书签。未定义书签。4.4.多元品种齐发展，打造多金属国际化资源公司多元品种齐发展，打造多金属国际化资源公司 .2828 4.1.把握汽车轻量化趋势，布局铝加工领域.28 4.2.中金科技主营电池锌粉市场占有率较高.29 4.3.小金属为公司另一大亮点.30 5.5.盈利预测、估值与投资建议盈利预测、估值与投资建议 .3131 5.1.铜：流动性边际改善与经济复苏支撑铜价中枢上行.31 5.2.锌：供应宽松、需求提升，冶炼端利润持续修复.35 5.3.盈利预测.40 5.4.估值与投资建议.41 6.6.风险提示风险提示 .4444 图表目录图表目录 图表图表 1 1：中金岭南发展历程中金岭南发展历程.6 图表图表 2 2：20202020 年公司可转债募集资金使用计划年公司可转债募集资金使用计划.7 图表图表 3 3：海内外资源量对比（截至：海内外资源量对比（截至 20212021 年年 1212 月月 3131 日）日）.7 图表图表 4 4：锌精矿产品示意图：锌精矿产品示意图.8 图表图表 5 5：铅精矿产品示意图：铅精矿产品示意图.8 图表图表 6 6：锌锭产品示意图：锌锭产品示意图.8 图表图表 7 7：铅锭产品示意图：铅锭产品示意图.8 图表图表 8 8：主要子公司及对公司净利润影响达：主要子公司及对公司净利润影响达 10%以上的参股公司情况以上的参股公司情况.9 图表图表 9 9：公司背靠广东省国资委：公司背靠广东省国资委.10 图表图表 1010：政策层面高度重视国有企业价值实现：政策层面高度重视国有企业价值实现.11 图表图表 1111：中国主要矿产能源对外依存度：中国主要矿产能源对外依存度.12 图表图表 1212：中国矿产消费量占全球比超：中国矿产消费量占全球比超 50P%有有 1212 品种品种.12 图表图表 1313：中国制造：中国制造 20252025与战略性关键矿产与战略性关键矿产.12 图表图表 1414：中国、美国、欧盟战略性关键矿产：中国、美国、欧盟战略性关键矿产.12 图表图表 1515：2022Q12022Q1-Q3Q3 实现营收实现营收 469.8469.8 亿元亿元.13 图表图表 1616：2022Q12022Q1-Q3Q3 实现营业利润实现营业利润 1212 亿元亿元.13 图表图表 1717：2022Q12022Q1-Q3Q3 实现归母净利实现归母净利 10.510.5 亿元亿元.13 图表图表 1818：除贸易外其他毛利率保持稳定：除贸易外其他毛利率保持稳定.13 4 请务必阅读报告末页的重要声明 公司报告公司深度研究公司报告公司深度研究 图表图表 1919：贸易收入为最大营收占比单项：贸易收入为最大营收占比单项.14 图表图表 2020：精矿产品为最大毛利占比单项：精矿产品为最大毛利占比单项.14 图表图表 2121：除其他业务外，精矿产品毛利率最高：除其他业务外，精矿产品毛利率最高.14 图表图表 2222：降本增效成效显著，研发端持续投入：降本增效成效显著，研发端持续投入.15 图表图表 2323：凡口铅锌矿保有资源储量情况表（截至：凡口铅锌矿保有资源储量情况表（截至 20212021 年年 1212 月月 3131 日）日）.16 图表图表 2424：凡口铅锌矿全景图：凡口铅锌矿全景图.17 图表图表 2525：中金岭南凡口矿首个井下：中金岭南凡口矿首个井下 5G5G 项目控制室项目控制室.17 图表图表 2626：广西盘龙矿发展历程：广西盘龙矿发展历程.18 图表图表 2727：广西盘龙矿区资源储量情况（截至：广西盘龙矿区资源储量情况（截至 20212021 年年 1212 月月 3131 日）日）.19 图表图表 2828：广西盘龙矿扩产建设进展：广西盘龙矿扩产建设进展.20 图表图表 2929：多米尼加迈蒙矿北矿山井下资源量（截至多米尼加迈蒙矿北矿山井下资源量（截至 20212021 年年 1010 月月 3131 日）日）.21 图表图表 3030：多米尼加迈蒙矿北矿山井下储量（截至多米尼加迈蒙矿北矿山井下储量（截至 20212021 年年 1010 月月 3131 日）日）.21 图表图表 3131：多米尼加迈蒙矿南矿山井下资源量（截至多米尼加迈蒙矿南矿山井下资源量（截至 20212021 年年 1010 月月 3131 日）日）.21 图表图表 3232：多米尼加迈蒙矿南矿山井下储量（截至多米尼加迈蒙矿南矿山井下储量（截至 20212021 年年 1010 月月 3131 日）日）.21 图表图表 3333：Loma PesadaLoma Pesada 远景区探矿项目资源量（截至远景区探矿项目资源量（截至 2121 年年 1010 月）月）.22 图表图表 3434：Loma BarbuitoLoma Barbuito 远景区探矿项目资源量（截至远景区探矿项目资源量（截至 2121 年年 1010 月）月）.22 图表图表 3535：Cerro KioskoCerro Kiosko 远景区探矿项目资源量（截至远景区探矿项目资源量（截至 2121 年年 1010 月）月）.23 图表图表 3636：Dona Dona AmandaAmanda 远景区探矿项目资源量（截至远景区探矿项目资源量（截至 2121 年年 1010 月）月）.23 图表图表 3737：坎背山项目资源量（截至：坎背山项目资源量（截至 2121 年年 1010 月）月）.23 图表图表 3838：澳大利亚布罗肯山：澳大利亚布罗肯山资源量和储量表（截至资源量和储量表（截至 20212021 年年报）年年报）.24 图表图表 3939：弗林德斯运营点资源量表（截至：弗林德斯运营点资源量表（截至 20212021 年年报）年年报）.24 图表图表 4040：蒙特奥赛德项目矿产资源量：蒙特奥赛德项目矿产资源量（截至（截至 20212021 年年报）年年报）.24 图表图表 4141：蒙特奥赛德项目钴资源量（截至：蒙特奥赛德项目钴资源量（截至 20212021 年年报）年年报）.25 图表图表 4242：20222022 年底公司拍得广东省内两处铜探矿权年底公司拍得广东省内两处铜探矿权.25 图表图表 4343：中金岭南收购东营方圆系企业回顾：中金岭南收购东营方圆系企业回顾.26 图表图表 4444：引入财务投资者前股权：引入财务投资者前股权结构图结构图.27 图表图表 4545：引入财务投资者后股权结构图：引入财务投资者后股权结构图.27 图表图表 4646：华加日公司主要产品示意图：华加日公司主要产品示意图.28 图表图表 4747：铝挤压材部件渗透率提升：铝挤压材部件渗透率提升.29 图表图表 4848：中金科技主要产品示意图：中金科技主要产品示意图.30 图表图表 4949：丹霞冶炼厂新貌：丹霞冶炼厂新貌.31 图表图表 5050：房地产开发投资、施工竣工及新开工同比：房地产开发投资、施工竣工及新开工同比.32 图表图表 5151：电网电源投资累积同比：电网电源投资累积同比.32 图表图表 5252：20132013-20222022 年电子产品产量同比增速年电子产品产量同比增速.33 图表图表 5353：20202020-20222022 年中国汽车月度产量年中国汽车月度产量.33 图表图表 5454：空调产量（万台）及增速：空调产量（万台）及增速.33 图表图表 5555：冰箱产量（万台）及增速：冰箱产量（万台）及增速.33 图表图表 5656：中国铜冶炼厂粗炼费：中国铜冶炼厂粗炼费 TCTC（美元（美元/干吨）干吨）.33 图表图表 5757：中国铜冶炼厂精炼费：中国铜冶炼厂精炼费 TCTC（美分（美分/磅）磅）.33 图表图表 5858：全球铜精矿产量预测：全球铜精矿产量预测.34 图表图表 5959：2023E2023E 铜精矿产量分区铜精矿产量分区.34 图表图表 6060：2024E2024E 铜精矿产量分区铜精矿产量分区.34 图表图表 6161：2025E2025E 铜精矿产量分区铜精矿产量分区.34 图表图表 6262：20232023 年海外主要新投产扩建铜矿山年海外主要新投产扩建铜矿山.35 图表图表 6363：主要新投产扩建铜矿山未来变化量（万吨）：主要新投产扩建铜矿山未来变化量（万吨）.35 图表图表 6464：20222022 年金属锌终端消费占比年金属锌终端消费占比.36 图表图表 6565：镀锌板是金属锌主要应用下游：镀锌板是金属锌主要应用下游.36 5 请务必阅读报告末页的重要声明 公司报告公司深度研究公司报告公司深度研究 图表图表 6666：2323 年海外锌矿产量同比增年海外锌矿产量同比增 2.8%2.8%（万吨）（万吨）.36 图表图表 6767：秘鲁以及澳洲贡献海外主要减量（万吨）：秘鲁以及澳洲贡献海外主要减量（万吨）.36 图表图表 6868：SMMSMM 国产锌精矿周度加工费国产锌精矿周度加工费.37 图表图表 6969：SMMSMM 进口锌精矿周度加工费进口锌精矿周度加工费.37 图表图表 7070：锌精矿企业生产利润：锌精矿企业生产利润.37 图表图表 7171：精炼锌企业生产利润：精炼锌企业生产利润.37 图表图表 7272：SMMSMM 锌下游采购经理人指数：镀锌锌下游采购经理人指数：镀锌.38 图表图表 7373：SMMSMM 锌下游采购经理人指数：压铸锌合金锌下游采购经理人指数：压铸锌合金.38 图表图表 7474：SMMSMM 锌下游采购经理人指数：氧化锌锌下游采购经理人指数：氧化锌.38 图表图表 7575：SMMSMM 锌下游采购经理人指数：黄铜锌下游采购经理人指数：黄铜.38 图表图表 7676：SMMSMM 锌下游采购经理人指数：电池锌下游采购经理人指数：电池.38 图表图表 7777：SMMSMM 锌下游采购经理人指数：综合锌下游采购经理人指数：综合.38 图表图表 7878：镀锌板卷、冷轧及热轧价格逐步回升：镀锌板卷、冷轧及热轧价格逐步回升.39 图表图表 7979：SMMSMM 镀锌周度开工率上行镀锌周度开工率上行.39 图表图表 8080：氧化锌（氧化锌（99.7.7%）平均价）平均价.39 图表图表 8181：氧化锌周度开工率：氧化锌周度开工率.39 图表图表 8282：压铸锌合金锭平均价：压铸锌合金锭平均价.39 图表图表 8383：压铸锌合金锭周度开工率：压铸锌合金锭周度开工率.39 图表图表 8484：公司营收测算汇总（亿元）：公司营收测算汇总（亿元）.41 图表图表 8585：可比公司：可比公司 PEPE.42 图表图表 8686：FCFEFCFE 参数假设参数假设.42 6 请务必阅读报告末页的重要声明 公司报告公司深度研究公司报告公司深度研究 1.铅锌龙头切入铜产业链，打造多金属全产业链资源公司铅锌龙头切入铜产业链，打造多金属全产业链资源公司 1.1.全球化布局的资源型企业全球化布局的资源型企业 铅锌龙头延伸布局铜产业链。铅锌龙头延伸布局铜产业链。中金岭南成立于 1984 年 9 月，1997 年 1 月在深交所上市，是一家以铅锌为主业的多金属国际化全产业链资源公司，公司在中国、澳大利亚、多米尼加、爱尔兰拥有多个矿山和勘探项目，掌控已探明的有色金属资源金属量超千万吨。2022 年，公司收购东营方圆有色，利用自身铜矿资源优势，布局“铜矿-铜”产业链，打造公司增长新引擎。公司发展主要分为三个阶段：（1）资源整合，扎根广东；（2）立足中国，走向世界；（3）拓展铜业，多元发展。图表图表 1 1：中金岭南发展历程中金岭南发展历程 来源：公司官网，公司公告，国联证券研究所（1 1）资源整合，扎根广东。资源整合，扎根广东。1984 年 9 月，公司前身中国有色金属工业深圳联合公司成立；1994 年 6 月，发行内部股份，更名为深圳中金实业股份有限公司；1997年 1 月，在深交所挂牌上市；与韶关岭南铅锌集团资产重组，并更名为深圳市中金岭南有色金属股份有限公司；2000 年，由国家有色工业局划归广东省管理；2001 年 11月，划归广东省广晟资产经营有限公司。（2 2）立足中国，走向世界。立足中国，走向世界。2008 年，收购盘龙铅锌矿，实现“立足广西，放眼东盟”的战略布局；2009 年 2 月，收购 100%澳大利亚铅锌企业佩利雅矿业公司，实现国际化经营的战略转型；2011 年 1 月，收购加拿大全球星矿业公司，实现多金属国际化的战略布局；2018 年 6 月，海外子公司佩利雅收购缅甸金属 19.9%股权，成为第一大股东。（3 3）拓展铜业，多元发展。拓展铜业，多元发展。2020 年 7 月，发行 38 亿可转债，建设多米尼加矿业公司迈蒙矿年产 200 万吨采选工程项目以及丹霞冶炼厂炼锌渣绿色化升级改造项目；2022 年，参与东营方圆有色破产重组并正式接管，全产业链布局铜领域。7 请务必阅读报告末页的重要声明 公司报告公司深度研究公司报告公司深度研究 图表图表 2 2：20202020 年公司可转债募集资金使用计划年公司可转债募集资金使用计划 项目名称 拟使用募集资金额（亿元）投资进度 多米尼加矿业公司迈蒙矿年产 200万吨采选工程项目 17.3 59.1%丹霞冶炼厂炼锌渣绿色化升级改造项目 14.1 78.36%凡口铅锌矿采掘废石资源化利用技术改造项目 1.6 100.11%补充流动资金 5 100%合计 38 73.36%来源：公司公告，国联证券研究所 海内外布局，资源储量丰厚。海内外布局，资源储量丰厚。公司所属矿山保有金属资源储量锌 776 万吨，铅 358 万吨，银 6100 吨，铜 147 万吨，钴 20807 吨，金 80099 千克，镍 9.24万吨。其中国内矿山保有金属资源储量锌 350 万吨，铅 142 万吨，银 1452 吨，国外矿山保有金属资源储量锌 427 万吨，铅 216 万吨，银 4648 吨，铜 147 万吨，钴 20807 吨，金 80099 千克，镍 9.24 万吨。拥有铅锌采选年产金属量 30万吨的生产能力。图表图表 3 3：海内外资源量对比（截海内外资源量对比（截至至 20212021 年年 1212 月月 3131 日）日）锌 铅 银 铜 钴 金 镍 单位 万吨 万吨 吨 万吨 吨 千克 万吨 国内 350 142 1452-国外 427 216 4648 147 20,807 80,099 9.24 来源：公司公告，国联证券研究所 1.2.产品种类丰富，涵盖上游至下游多款产品产品种类丰富，涵盖上游至下游多款产品 公司主营产品为铅锌相关产品。公司主营产品为铅锌相关产品。公司主要销售产品为铅锌精矿、金属铅、金属锌及锌制品等。锌锭产品拥有“南华牌”商标，在伦敦金属交易所（LME）和上海期货交易所（SHFE）注册交易，因其品质较高在行业内享有较高知名度。公司直属凡口 8 请务必阅读报告末页的重要声明 公司报告公司深度研究公司报告公司深度研究 铅锌矿、子公司广西中金岭南矿业公司下属广西盘龙矿和澳大利亚佩利雅公司负责铅锌矿的开采、选矿，公司直属韶关冶炼厂和丹霞冶炼厂负责铅锌精矿的冶炼，采取一体化生产模式，大部分精矿均由企业自身冶炼。图表图表 4 4：锌精矿产品示意图：锌精矿产品示意图 图表图表 5 5：铅精矿产品示意图：铅精矿产品示意图 来源：公司官网，国联证券研究所 来源：公司官网，国联证券研究所 图表图表 6 6：锌锭产品示意图：锌锭产品示意图 图表图表 7 7：铅锭产品示意图：铅锭产品示意图 来源：公司官网，国联证券研究所 来源：公司官网，国联证券研究所 冶炼副产品丰富，提升公司盈利能力。冶炼副产品丰富，提升公司盈利能力。除铅锌外，公司冶炼端会产生多种副产品，包括银锭、黄金、粗铜、电铜、铟锭、工业硫酸、硫磺等，因铅锌冶炼量较大，且公司采选、回收工艺水平较高，副产品产量也比较可观，较大程度上提升公司盈利能力。积极开拓新材料加工积极开拓新材料加工板块板块。公司子公司华加日铝业专注于铝型材加工领域，主要产品包括智能设备铝材、光伏铝材以及汽车铝材。子公司中金科技专注于电池材料，主要产品包括片状锌粉与无汞锌粉。多年来，公司积极探索有色细分领域的发展路径，力求在有色金属领域的全方位覆盖。9 请务必阅读报告末页的重要声明 公司报告公司深度研究公司报告公司深度研究 子公司业务维度丰富多元。子公司业务维度丰富多元。公司除矿山与冶炼外，积极向新材料加工、金融贸易、工程服务等领域开拓，公司在新材料加工领域设有子公司华加日铝业与中金岭南科技，在金融贸易领域设有子公司中金岭南期货与有色金属财务公司，在工程服务领域设有中金岭南工程技术有限公司。近年来不断做大企业版图，为公司带来多元化的盈利增长点，提升企业的抗风险能力，增强企业核心竞争力。图表图表 8 8：主要子公司及对公司净利润影响达主要子公司及对公司净利润影响达 10%以上的参股公司情况以上的参股公司情况 子公司名称子公司名称 业务主要业务主要 持股比例持股比例 广西中金岭南矿业有限责任公司 铅锌矿开采、加工、销售 100%澳大利亚佩利雅有限公司 铅锌铜矿等勘探、开采、加工 100%深圳华加日铝业有限公司 生产经营铝门窗及铝合金制品 72%深圳市中金岭南科技有限公司 高性能粉体材料研发生产销售 100%香港深业有色金属有限公司 贸易 99.17%深圳市有色金属财务有限公司 同业拆借、成员单位内金融业务 100%深圳市中金岭南期货有限公司 期货经纪业务、咨询、培训 100%广东中金岭南工程技术有限公司 冶炼工程施工总承包 100%来源：公司公告，国联证券研究所 1.3.背靠广东国资委，国企改革再突破背靠广东国资委，国企改革再突破 公司背靠广东省国资委。公司背靠广东省国资委。从股权结构看，广东省广晟控股集团有限公司合计拥有公司 33.72%股份，为公司控股股东，广东省国资委拥有广东省广晟控股集团有限公司 90%股份，公司实控人为广东省国资委。截至 2022 年年底，广东省属国企资产总额达 2.33 万亿元，同比增长 3.8%，资产总额位列全国第三，股东背景雄厚。10 请务必阅读报告末页的重要声明 公司报告公司深度研究公司报告公司深度研究 图表图表 9 9：公司背靠广东省国资委：公司背靠广东省国资委 来源：公司公告，国联证券研究所 政策层面高度重视国有企业价值实现，央国企价值重估进行时。政策层面高度重视国有企业价值实现，央国企价值重估进行时。2022 年 11 月21 日，易会满主席在金融街年会论坛上首次提出“中国特色估值体系”，提到上市公司尤其是国有上市公司，一方面要“练好内功”，加强专业化战略性整合，提升核心竞争力；另一方面，要进一步强化公众公司意识，主动加强投资者关系管理，让市场更好地认识企业内在价值。2023 年初，国资委的系列会议以及 2023 年政府工作报告均提到要深化国有企业改革，提高国有企业的核心竞争力，政策层面高度重视国有企业价值。2023 年 3 月 3 日，国资委启动国有企业对标世界一流企业价值创造行动，做强做优做大国有企业，低估值国企有望迎来估值提升。2 2020020-20222022 年三年国企改革收官，新一轮国改乘势而上再突破。年三年国企改革收官，新一轮国改乘势而上再突破。国务院国资委党委署名文章国企改革三年行动的经验总结与未来展望中提到，围绕提高安全支撑力深化改革，增强重要能源资源托底作用，推进重要能源、矿产资源国内勘探和增储上产。2022 年 12 月中共中央、国务院印发扩大内需战略规划纲要（2022-2035 年）提到，强化能源资源安全保障，增强国内生产供应能力。国家安全战略（2021-2025 年）提出“要确保能源矿产安全”，矿产安全首次上升到国家战略。围绕加强重要能源矿产资源国内勘探开发和增储上产，中国已经全面启动新一轮找矿突破战略行动。当前，中国仍处在工业化中后期和新型城镇化快速发展期，矿产资源需求量维持高位，且中国矿产资源对外依存度较高，其金属消费比例已超过美国和欧洲，根据 中国能源与重要矿产资源需求展望，中国消费占比超过50%的矿产资源达到了12种。在逆全球化趋势加剧、资源民族主义抬头、全球产业链重构背景下，关键矿产资源安全、资源供应链稳定的重要性与日俱增。我们认为在资源储量产量、自主可控方面有竞争优势的金属矿业公司值得关注。公司扎根广东、立足岭南、面向粤港澳大湾区，公司扎根广东、立足岭南、面向粤港澳大湾区，总部位于深圳改革开放桥头堡、中国特色社会主义先行示范区，公司秉承“以有限资源创造无限价值、争创世界一流的多金属国际化资源公司”的使命与愿景，现已发展为以铅、锌、铜等为主业的多金属国际化全产业链资源公司，拥有海内外多个矿山和勘探项目，11 请务必阅读报告末页的重要声明 公司报告公司深度研究公司报告公司深度研究 掌控已探明的铅、锌、铜等有色金属资源量超千万吨，潜在价值超千亿元，且在高端铝型材及新材料加工领域亮点显著。我们认为，公司在资源增储增采、多金属覆盖、全产业链布局等举措深刻契合国我们认为，公司在资源增储增采、多金属覆盖、全产业链布局等举措深刻契合国家矿产安全战略内核，在构建国家矿产资源供应链完整、提升关键矿产资源自主可控、家矿产安全战略内核，在构建国家矿产资源供应链完整、提升关键矿产资源自主可控、强化矿产资源安全保障等方面稳步践行。结合公司在铅锌领域较强的竞争壁垒、切入强化矿产资源安全保障等方面稳步践行。结合公司在铅锌领域较强的竞争壁垒、切入铜产业链不断拓宽的护城河、新一轮国改行动下低估值央国企估值提升的预期，我们铜产业链不断拓宽的护城河、新一轮国改行动下低估值央国企估值提升的预期，我们认为公司估值范式认为公司估值范式有待有待重筑，当前股价尚未充分体重筑，当前股价尚未充分体现公司价值，我们予以推荐。现公司价值，我们予以推荐。图表图表 1010：政策层面高度重视国有企业价值实现：政策层面高度重视国有企业价值实现 时间时间 重点事件重点事件/文件文件 主要内容主要内容 2022/5/27 提高央企控股上市公司质量工作方案 打造一批核心竞争力强、市场影响力大的旗舰型龙头上市公司，培育一批专业优势明显、质量品牌突出的专业化领航上市公司，为提升中央企业可持续发展能力和整体实力，做强做优做大国有资本做强做优做大国有资本和国有企业和国有企业 2022/10/25 二十大报告 深化国资国企改革，加快国有经济布局优化和结构调整，推动国有推动国有资本和国有企业做强做优做大资本和国有企业做强做优做大，提升企业核心竞争力 2022/11/21 易会满主席在 2022 金融街论坛年会上的主题演讲 深刻认识我们的市场体制机制、行业产业结构、主体持续发展能力所体现的鲜明中国元素、发展阶段特征，深入研究成熟市场估值理论的适用场景，把握好不同类型上市公司的估值逻辑，探索建立具探索建立具有中国特色的估值体系有中国特色的估值体系，促进市场资源配置功能更好发挥 2023/1/31 国资委副主任袁野解读中央企业“一利五率”经营指标体系 国资委将中央企业 2023 年主要经营指示由原来的“两利四率”调整为“一利五率“提出了“一增一稳四提升”的年度经营目标，推推动中央企业提高核心竞争力动中央企业提高核心竞争力，加快实现高质量发展，建设世界一流企业 2023/3/3 国资委启动国有企业对标世界一流企业价值创造行动 牢牢把握做强做优做大国有资本和国有企业这一根本目标牢牢把握做强做优做大国有资本和国有企业这一根本目标，用好提升核心竞争力和增强核心功能这两个途径，以价值创造为关键抓手，扎实推动企业高质量发展，加快建成世界一流企业，为服务构建新发展格局、全面推进中国式现代化提供坚实基础和战略支撑 2023/3/5 2023 年政府工作报告 深化国资国企改革，提高国企核心竞争力深化国资国企改革，提高国企核心竞争力。坚持分类改革方向，处理好国企经济责任和社会责任关系，完善中国特色国有企业现代公司治理 2023/3/6 上交所党委副书记、总经理蔡建春于两会上的提案及建议（1）进一步加强央企在科技创新领域的龙头牵引作用。（2）鼓励央企充分运用资本市场工具，提升央企核心竞争力。（3）促进央促进央企估值水平合理回归，推动央企上市公司质量提高、价值挖掘和企估值水平合理回归，推动央企上市公司质量提高、价值挖掘和提升。提升。（4）利用资本市场工具，推动央企专业化、产业化战略性重组整合，充分发挥产业链龙头地位的央企上市公司作用，优化产业布局，改善产业生态。来源：国务院，国资委，证监会，上海证券报，对标世界一流企业,哪些行业央国企具有估值提升空间？国联证券研究所策略组，国联证券研究所 12 请务必阅读报告末页的重要声明 公司报告公司深度研究公司报告公司深度研究 图表图表 1111：中国主要矿产能源对外依存度中国主要矿产能源对外依存度 图表图表 1212：中国矿产消费量占全球比超：中国矿产消费量占全球比超 50P%有有 1212 品种品种 来源：河北省自然资源厅，国联证券研究所 来源：中国能源与重要矿产资源需求展望，国联证券研究所 图表图表 1313：中国制造：中国制造 20252025与战略性关键矿产与战略性关键矿产 图表图表 1414：中国、美国、欧盟战略性关键矿产中国、美国、欧盟战略性关键矿产 来源：大国竞争背景下的中国战略性关键矿产资源安全思考，国联证券研究所 来源：大国竞争背景下的中国战略性关键矿产资源安全思考，国联证券研究所 1.4.经营业绩持续优化，经营业绩持续优化，2022 年净利有望创新高年净利有望创新高 公司营收及利润稳步增长。公司营收及利润稳步增长。2021 年公司实现营收 445 亿元，同比增长 47.1%，2018 年-2021 年年均复合增长率为 30.5%，2022Q1-Q3 实现营收 469.8 亿元，预计 2022 年全年营收同比有较大增长。2021 年公司实现营业利润 15.1 亿元，同比增长 72.1%，2018 年-2021 年年均复合增长率为 4.5%，2022Q1-Q3 实现营业利润 12 亿元，预计 2022 年全年营业利润会有较大增长。13 请务必阅读报告末页的重要声明 公司报告公司深度研究公司报告公司深度研究 图表图表 1515：20222022Q1Q1-Q3Q3 实实现营收现营收 469.8469.8 亿元亿元 图表图表 1616：2022Q2022Q1 1-Q3Q3 实实现营业利润现营业利润 1212 亿元亿元 来源：Wind，国联证券研究所 来源：Wind，国联证券研究所 2222 年归母净利预计创近年来新高，除贸易外其他毛利率保持稳定年归母净利预计创近年来新高，除贸易外其他毛利率保持稳定。2021 年公司实现归母净利 11.7 亿元，同比增长 17.8%，2018 年-2021 年年均复合增长率为 8.4%，2022Q1-Q3 实现归母净利 10.5 亿元，预计 2022 年全年归母净利将创近年来新高。毛利率方面，公司总体毛利率从 2018 年的 13.5%降 2021 年至6%，但除贸易外其余产品 2021 年毛利率 29.6%，保持相对稳定。图表图表 1717：202022Q122Q1-Q3Q3 实实现归母净利现归母净利 10.510.5 亿元亿元 图表图表 1818：除贸易外其他毛利率保持稳定除贸易外其他毛利率保持稳定 来源：Wind，国联证券研究所 来源：Wind，国联证券研究所 分产品来看，贸易收入为最大营收占比单项，精矿产品为最大毛利占比单分产品来看，贸易收入为最大营收占比单项，精矿产品为最大毛利占比单项。项。拆分营收看，公司营收中贸易收入占比最高，2021 年为 351 亿元，第二位是冶炼产品，2021 年收入 61.2 亿元，第三位是精矿产品，2021 年收入 33.4 亿元。拆分毛利看，公司毛利中精矿产品毛利最高，2021 年为 11.8 亿元，冶炼产品次之，2021 年为 9.9 亿元。200.1 228.4 302.5 445.0 469.8 0%5 %05EP010015020025030035040045050020182019202020212022Q1-Q3营业总收入（亿元）同比13.3 10.4 8.8 15.1 12.0-40%-20%0 4681012141620182019202020212022Q1-Q3营业利润（亿元）同比9.2 8.5 10.0 11.7 10.5-20%-15%-10%-5%0%5 46810121420182019202020212022Q1-Q3归属母公司股东的净利润（亿元）同比14.2.5%9.1%6.9%6.03.60.9.2.6).6%0%5 %05 172018201920202021毛利率毛利率（除贸易）14 请务必阅读报告末页的重要声明 公司报告公司深度研究公司报告公司深度研究 图表图表 1919：贸易收入为最大营收占比单项贸易收入为最大营收占比单项 图表图表 2020：精矿产品为最大毛利占比单项精矿产品为最大毛利占比单项 来源：Wind，国联证券研究所 来源：Wind，国联证券研究所 除其他业务外，精矿产品毛利率最高。除其他业务外，精矿产品毛利率最高。2021 年，公司精矿产品毛利率为34.7%，冶炼产品毛利率为 16.2%，各项产品毛利率都保持相对稳定。图表图表 2121：除其他业务外，精矿产品毛利率最高除其他业务外，精矿产品毛利率最高 来源：Wind，国联证券研究所 降本增效成效显著，研发端持续投入。降本增效成效显著，研发端持续投入。2018 年-2022Q3，公司积极管控各项费用开支，费用率呈现下降态势，降本增效成果显著。研发端持续投入，研发费用率小幅提升，公司坚持科技赋能，创新赋能，努力提升企业核心竞争力。0 0Pp0 172018201920202021其他业务其他收入幕墙门窗电池材料铝型材精矿产品冶炼产品贸易收入0 0Pp0 172018201920202021其他业务其他收入幕墙门窗电池材料铝型材精矿产品冶炼产品贸易收入16.24.7C.5%0%5 %05EP 172018201920202021贸易收入冶炼产品精矿产品铝型材电池材料幕墙门窗其他收入其他业务 15 请务必阅读报告末页的重要声明 公司报告公司深度研究公司报告公司深度研究 图表图表 2222：降本增效成效显著，研发端持续投入降本增效成效显著，研发端持续投入 来源：Wind，国联证券研究所 2.资源端全球布局，迈蒙矿资源禀赋突出、放量在即资源端全球布局，迈蒙矿资源禀赋突出、放量在即 2.1.国内矿山扩产增效重焕生机国内矿山扩产增效重焕生机 2.1.1 凡口铅锌矿 凡口铅锌矿是亚洲最大的铅锌银矿种生产基地之一凡口铅锌矿是亚洲最大的铅锌银矿种生产基地之一，资源优势显著，资源优势显著。凡口铅锌矿 1958 年建矿，1968 年投产，是目前亚洲最大的单一铅锌银矿生产基地、国家能源资源规划重点矿区和矿产资源重点勘查区，矿山资源丰富，品位高，储量大，矿石中除富含 13%左右的铅锌金属外，还赋存大量的银和锗、镓等稀散金属。凡口铅锌矿凡口铅锌矿拥有拥有年产年产 1818 万吨铅锌金属量万吨铅锌金属量产能产能。凡口铅锌矿年采矿石约 140万吨，日处理铅锌矿石 5500 吨、具有年产 18 万吨铅锌金属量的生产能力。主要产品有铅锌矿石、铅精矿（品位 60%）、锌精矿（品位 55%）、混合铅锌精矿（铅锌品位 47%以上）、高铁硫精矿（品位 47%）、建筑砂石料。0.0%0.5%1.0%1.5%2.0%2.5%3.0 182019202020212022Q3销售费用率管理费用率研发费用率财务费用率 16 请务必阅读报告末页的重要声明 公司报告公司深度研究公司报告公司深度研究 图表图表 2323：凡口铅锌矿保有资源储量情况表（截凡口铅锌矿保有资源储量情况表（截至至 20212021 年年 1212 月月 3131 日）日）来源：公司公告，国联证券研究所 找矿工程科学得当，增找矿工程科学得当，增产产预期清晰明朗预期清晰明朗。截至 2022 年 11 月底，矿区完成地表外围探矿钻孔施工17个，累计进尺11369.9米，其中见矿钻孔12个，见矿率70.59%，井下探矿钻孔施工进尺 10979 米，其中园墩岭-280m 中段上下盘探获 2 条新铅锌矿体，查明狮岭深部、狮岭南及园墩岭重点区域铜矿体分布及铜矿物质量情况。随着公司加快推进采矿权扩证后续相关工作，增产预期清晰明朗。采矿工艺先进，选矿水平国际领先。采矿工艺先进，选矿水平国际领先。凡口矿为地下开采，井深达 900m。采用中央主、副井加斜坡道开拓方式，目前主要的采矿方法为盘区上向机械化分层胶结充填采矿法、大直径深孔采矿法（FDQ 法）、无底柱深孔 VCR 采矿法等。选矿工艺为高碱细磨铅锌快速优化浮选工艺，大型设备化、智能化、现代化选矿厂于 2021 年投入使用，创造了 SABC 流程调试时间最短的国内记录，铅锌银等综合回收率达到国际先进水平。积极积极推进智能矿山建设。推进智能矿山建设。凡口铅锌矿 5000 吨/日新选矿厂的智能管控中心于 2021 年 1 月建成，其中最核心的部分是 DCS 智能系统，使得选矿厂实现了全自动化，可以实现自动上料，磨矿和浮选药剂远程添加，金属的回收率在 92%以上。17 请务必阅读报告末页的重要声明 公司报告公司深度研究公司报告公司深度研究 图表图表 2424：凡口铅锌矿全景图凡口铅锌矿全景图 来源：公司官网，国联证券研究所 科技赋能采矿实现井下作业减人增效。科技赋能采矿实现井下作业减人增效。2016 年凡口矿建成的采矿车间集中控制中心，实现了井下压风、通风、排水、提升、配电系统远程集中控制，大大提升了井下生产管理效率及安全监管能力。数字化改造后，仅需要安排 10 人在集控中心远程集中监控及 9 个员工巡检共 19 人就可以完成以往 90 人的工作量。图表图表 2525：中金岭南凡口矿首个井下中金岭南凡口矿首个井下 5G5G 项目项目控制室控制室 来源：公司官网，国联证券研究所 18 请务必阅读报告末页的重要声明 公司报告公司深度研究公司报告公司深度研究 智能化建设后，降本增效成果显著。智能化建设后，降本增效成果显著。经过初步统计，近年来的自动化、数字化、智能化改造，使得凡口铅锌矿在采、选、运方面减员 141 人，按每人 10万元/年的薪酬来算，一年可降低成本约 1410 万元。同时，矿山作业的少人化、无人化，显著提高了安全性。2.1.2 广西盘龙矿 广西盘龙矿目前由公司广西盘龙矿目前由公司 1 100%控股。控股。广西盘龙矿隶属于公司子公司广西中金岭南矿业有限责任公司，创建于 2001 年 3 月，2005 年 11 月正式投产。2008 年7 月，公司以 3.41 亿元收购原股东 55%股份。2010 年 11 月，更名为广西中金岭南矿业有限责任公司。2021 年 2 月，公司收购全部股份。图表图表 2626：广西盘龙矿发展历程广西盘龙矿发展历程 来源：公司公告，国联证券研究所 广西盘龙广西盘龙矿矿拥有拥有年产年产 2 2 万吨铅锌金属量万吨铅锌金属量产能产能。广西盘龙矿拥有露天/地下开采 210.8 万吨/年的采矿权，拥有司律矿勘察 4.91 平方公里、湾龙铅锌矿普查 4.37 平方公里两个探矿权。目前探明备案的铅锌金属储量 222.5 万吨，日处理铅锌矿石近 3000 吨，年处理铅锌矿石 80 万吨，铅锌金属年产量约 2 万吨。19 请务必阅读报告末页的重要声明 公司报告公司深度研究公司报告公司深度研究 图表图表 2727：广西盘龙矿区资源储量情况（广西盘龙矿区资源储量情况（截至截至 20212021 年年 1212 月月 3131 日）日）来源：公司公告，国联证券研究所 采矿工艺坚持向智能化迈进。采矿工艺坚持向智能化迈进。井下生产，广西盘龙矿采用深孔、中深孔爆破嗣后充填采矿法，大力推行安全高效机械化采矿，遥控铲运机、遥控破碎台车等一大批先进设备投入井下生产，向着“机械化换人、自动化减人、智能化无人”目标坚实迈进。6 600000 0 吨吨/天扩产工程预计于天扩产工程预计于 2 2024024 年投产。年投产。广西盘龙矿 6000t/d 扩产改造工程已于 2017 年底开工建设，建设完成后生产规模将达到 198 万吨/年，服务年限 26 年，达产期 23 年。主要建设项目有采矿的主井、副井和井下联络道，还有新的选矿厂。预计建成后年产值达 8 亿元、年利润可达 3 亿元。20 请务必阅读报告末页的重要声明 公司报告公司深度研究公司报告公司深度研究 图表图表 2828：广西盘龙矿扩产建设进展广西盘龙矿扩产建设进展 来源：公司公众号，国联证券研究所 2.2.国外矿山亮点频现国外矿山亮点频现 2.2.1 多米尼加迈蒙矿 多米尼加迈蒙矿为公司目前资源端主要发力点。多米尼加迈蒙矿为公司目前资源端主要发力点。迈蒙矿位于多米尼加共和国首都圣多明哥西北角 75 公里处，是多米尼加第一个运营的铜金矿。该矿属于全球星矿业，中金岭南子公司佩利雅公司收购全球星矿业后获得该矿控制权。地下矿脉提升迈蒙矿整体价值。地下矿脉提升迈蒙矿整体价值。迈蒙矿于 2008 年 10 月投产，采取露天开采方式，设计寿命 8-9 年，理论上已经进入开采后期，但是地下矿的发现延长了迈蒙矿的使用年限，重新焕发生机。2019 年地下矿道正式开通，为多米尼加首个地下矿开采项目。前期投入少、见效快，能实现“边采边探、以矿养矿”的生产模式。截至 2021 年 10 月 31 日勘探结果，公司多米尼加迈蒙矿南北矿山资源量、储量丰富。21 请务必阅读报告末页的重要声明 公司报告公司深度研究公司报告公司深度研究 图表图表 2929：多米尼加迈蒙矿北矿山井下资源量（多米尼加迈蒙矿北矿山井下资源量（截至截至 20212021 年年 1010 月月 3131 日日）来源：公司公告，国联证券研究所 图表图表 3030：多米尼加迈蒙矿北矿山井下储量（多米尼加迈蒙矿北矿山井下储量（截至截至 20212021 年年 1010 月月 3131 日日）来源：公司公告，国联证券研究所 图表图表 3131：多米尼加迈蒙矿南矿山井下资源量（多米尼加迈蒙矿南矿山井下资源量（截至截至 20212021 年年 1010 月月 3131 日）日）来源：公司公告，国联证券研究所 图表图表 3232：多米尼加迈蒙矿南矿山井下储量（多米尼加迈蒙矿南矿山井下储量（截至截至 20212021 年年 1010 月月 3131 日）日）来源：公司公告，国联证券研究所 采选矿采选矿项目预计于项目预计于 2 2024024 年年 1 12 2 月达到月达到满产满产状态。状态。目前迈蒙矿矿石年产量约 60 万吨/年，2021 年生产精矿含铜金属量 4774 吨。2019 年 11 月，公司董事局审议通过关于投资多米尼加矿业公司迈蒙矿年产 200 万吨采选工程项目的议 22 请务必阅读报告末页的重要声明 公司报告公司深度研究公司报告公司深度研究 案。项目设计建设规模为南、北两矿床合计 200 万吨/年矿石量，矿山服务年限 19 年。项目主要产品为锌精矿、铜精矿和伴生的金、银，年均生产精矿合计含锌金属量约 3.2 万吨，铜金属量约 2.6 万吨，金约 890 千克，银约 24 吨。项目采取边建边采边探的生产模式，目前已有矿石量产出，预计 2024 年 12 月达到满产状态。预计项目建成后可实现年均净利润预计项目建成后可实现年均净利润 4.454.45 亿元。亿元。迈蒙矿井下资源的开发项目达产后，在服务年限内生产的精矿含金属产量以及可实现的经济效益可观，对市场金属价格的抗风险能力较强，这将提高佩利雅公司的持续盈利能力，迈蒙矿也将成为中金岭南海外盈利的重要支撑点。探矿权覆盖区域广，资源潜力探矿权覆盖区域广，资源潜力大。大。公司迈蒙矿权还包含原矿场周围大型硫化矿带 80的区域，延伸面积超过 105 平方公里。矿带金属含量丰富且品种多元，增储潜力大。图表图表 3333：Loma PesadaLoma Pesada 远景区探矿项目资源量（远景区探矿项目资源量（截至截至 2121 年年 1 10 0 月）月）来源：公司公告，国联证券研究所 图表图表 3434：Loma Loma B Bararbuitobuito 远景区探矿项目资源量（远景区探矿项目资源量（截至截至 2121 年年 1010 月月）来源：公司公告，国联证券研究所 23 请务必阅读报告末页的重要声明 公司报告公司深度研究公司报告公司深度研究 图表图表 3535：C Cerro Kioskoerro Kiosko 远景区探矿项目资源量（远景区探矿项目资源量（截至截至 2121 年年 1010 月月）来源：公司公告，国联证券研究所 图表图表 3636：D Dona Amandaona Amanda 远景区探矿项目资源量（远景区探矿项目资源量（截至截至 2121 年年 1010 月月）来源：公司公告，国联证券研究所 图表图表 3737：坎背山坎背山项目资源量（项目资源量（截至截至 2121 年年 1010 月月）来源：公司公告，国联证券研究所 2.2.2 澳大利亚布罗肯山 布罗肯山历史悠久，规模较大。布罗肯山历史悠久，规模较大。澳大利亚布罗肯山铅锌矿是公司走向海外的第一步，该矿属于子公司佩利雅公司，佩利雅公司于 2002 年收购布罗肯铅锌矿。自 1885 年矿山开采以来，布罗肯山铅锌矿共产出 2 亿吨矿石，矿区面积1042 平方公里，规模量位居世界前列。同时，公司多次进行找探矿工程，不断提升现有产量并延长矿山使用寿命。开采经验丰富，基础设施完善。开采经验丰富，基础设施完善。澳大利亚凭借其资源禀赋，在矿产端拥有上百年的开采经验，且技术水平先进。公司拥有矿山均为成熟矿山项目，交通、加工等基础设施完善，采矿团队技术娴熟、经验丰富。矿石品味较高。矿石品味较高。布罗山矿主要生产锌精矿和铅精矿，精矿产品属于优质粗粒产品，复杂度低，锌精矿中锌含量约为 50%，铅精矿中铅含量为 70%。24 请务必阅读报告末页的重要声明 公司报告公司深度研究公司报告公司深度研究 布罗肯山铅锌资源量丰富。布罗肯山铅锌资源量丰富。据公司 21 年年报显示，布罗肯山拥有矿石资源量 2547 万吨、储量 964 万吨。金属品种涵盖锌、铅、银，是全球最大的铅锌混合矿。图表图表 3838：澳大利亚布罗肯山资源量和储量表（澳大利亚布罗肯山资源量和储量表（截至截至 20212021 年年报）年年报）来源：公司公告，国联证券研究所 除布罗肯山外，公司在澳大利亚拥有的矿山还包括弗林德斯运营点和蒙特奥赛德项目。弗林德斯运营点金属以铅锌为主，蒙特奥赛德项目包含铜、银、钴等金属。图表图表 3939：弗林德斯运营点资源量表（弗林德斯运营点资源量表（截至截至 20212021 年年报）年年报）来源：公司公告，国联证券研究所 图表图表 4040：蒙特奥赛德项目矿产资源量（蒙特奥赛德项目矿产资源量（截至截至 20212021 年年报）年年报）来源：公司公告，国联证券研究所 25 请务必阅读报告末页的重要声明 公司报告公司深度研究公司报告公司深度研究 图表图表 4141：蒙特奥赛德项目钴资源量（蒙特奥赛德项目钴资源量（截至截至 20212021 年年报）年年报）来源：公司公告，国联证券研究所 2.3.资源端积极探索，做好铜矿项目储备资源端积极探索，做好铜矿项目储备 公司扎根广东，积极把握省内资源项目。公司扎根广东，积极把握省内资源项目。2022 年底，公司拍得两块以铜为主的探矿权项目，分别位于韶关市与阳春市，矿产品种皆以铜为主。韶关市探矿权面积 30.63 平方千米，成交价 1294 万元；阳春市探矿权面积 6.45 平方千米，成交价 40 万元。该举进一步说明公司未来往铜领域发展方向的确定性，积极获取新的探矿权，夯实公司铜产业链一体化布局。图表图表 4242：20222022 年底公司拍得广东省内两处铜探矿权年底公司拍得广东省内两处铜探矿权 项目名称项目名称 勘察矿种勘察矿种 勘察面积（勘察面积（km2）成交价（万元）成交价（万元）广东省韶关市武江区万侯铜银铅锌多金属矿普查（含资产包）铜多 30.6323 1294 广东省阳春市尧垌铜多金属矿普查 铜多 6.45 40 来源：广东省自然资源厅官网，国联证券研究所 3.全产业链布局铜领域，打造全产业链布局铜领域，打造公司公司第二增长极第二增长极 重整投资东营方圆系企业，重整投资东营方圆系企业，发挥发挥自身矿产端资源优势自身矿产端资源优势。2022 年 8 月，公司董事会审议通过关于签署的议案，此举是中金岭南成立以来规模最大的一次并购，也是近年来中国有色金属行业规模较大的一次并购。这标志着，中金岭南正式进入铜冶炼及精深加工领域，产业结构持续优化，产业链条进一步完善，为构建以铅锌采选冶及精深加工为主的铅锌全产业链和以铜采选冶及精深加工为主的铜全产业链，打造千亿元级、世界一流的多金属国际化全产业链资源公司奠定了坚实的基础。26 请务必阅读报告末页的重要声明 公司报告公司深度研究公司报告公司深度研究 图表图表 4343：中金岭南收购东营方圆系企业回顾：中金岭南收购东营方圆系企业回顾 日期 进展 2022 年 5 月 30 日 公司第九届董事会第八次会议审议通过关于参与方圆系企业破产重整竞价遴选的议案，同意公司及子公司中金岭南荣晟（东营）投资有限公司在董事会授权范围内参与东营方圆有色金属有限公司、东营鲁方金属材料有限公司等公司破产重整投资人的竞价遴选。2022 年 7 月 28 日 公司收到方圆等 20 家公司管理人发来的中选通知书，公司在方圆等 20 家公司实质合并重整案重整投资人评选中胜出，成为方圆等 20 家公司重整投资人。2022 年 8 月 25 日 公司第九届董事会第十次会议审议通过关于签署的议案。2022 年 9 月 20 日 公司 2022 年第一次临时股东大会审议通过 关于签署的议案。2022 年 12 月 27 日 中金岭南接管方圆系企业。来源：公司公告，国联证券研究所 方圆有色铜冶炼产能民企中排名第一。方圆有色铜冶炼产能民企中排名第一。方圆有色成立于 1998 年，位于山东省东营市，是以铜冶炼为主营业务的民营企业，此次纳入实质合并重整范围 20家，产能指标年产阴极铜 70 万吨，国内排名第五位、民营铜冶炼企业排名第一。本次重整主要采取本次重整主要采取“存续式存续式-吸收合并重整吸收合并重整”的模式：的模式：由由 4 家公司合并成立新鲁方金属。家公司合并成立新鲁方金属。由鲁方金属吸收合并方圆有色、方泰回收和方圆科技，保留鲁方金属的法人主体资格，成为新鲁方金属，作为中金岭南重要铜冶炼平台。现金出资收购方圆铜业等现金出资收购方圆铜业等 15 家公司的全部股权。家公司的全部股权。中金岭南在东营设立中金资产，由中金岭南 100%控股，收购方圆铜业等 15 家公司剥离负债、不收购资产后的 100%股权，处置回款归中金资产所有。27 请务必阅读报告末页的重要声明 公司报告公司深度研究公司报告公司深度研究 图表图表 4444：引入财务投资者前引入财务投资者前股权结构图股权结构图 来源：公司公告，国联证券研究所 引入财务投资者，优化公司资本结构。引入财务投资者，优化公司资本结构。2022 年 12 月，公司引入农银金资、中国信达、光曜致新三家财务投资人，分别出资 5 亿元、3.1 亿元、3 亿元，增资完成后中金岭南持有中金东营股权比例为 63.00%，农银金资持有中金东营股权比例为16.67%，中国信达持有中金东营股权比例为 10.33%，光曜致新持有中金东营股权比例为 10.00%。此举有助于优化公司资本结构，增强资本实力和核心竞争力，助推企业高质量发展，对公司财务状况及经营成果产生积极影响，符合公司整体利益，促进公司持续稳健健康发展。图表图表 4545：引入财务投资者后股权结构图：引入财务投资者后股权结构图 来源：公司公告，国联证券研究所 28 请务必阅读报告末页的重要声明 公司报告公司深度研究公司报告公司深度研究 4.多元品种齐发展，打造多金属国际化资源公司多元品种齐发展，打造多金属国际化资源公司 4.1.把握汽车轻量化趋势，布局铝加工领域把握汽车轻量化趋势，布局铝加工领域 公司控股华加日公司专注公司控股华加日公司专注于于铝材加工。铝材加工。华加日公司是原中国有色金属工业总公司于 1986 年在深圳特区设立的高端铝加工制造企业，是中国第一家铝加工行业的中外合资企业。公司主要生产基地位于深圳市坪山区，占地 8 万平方米，拥有铝型材产能25000 吨/年。华加日公司为国家高新技术企业，产品定位高端。华加日公司为国家高新技术企业，产品定位高端。公司拥有 61 项国家专利（其中 8 项发明专利），主编十多项国家或行业标准，经过 30 多年的技术创新和积累，公司的技术水平和研发实力已进入行业领先水平。公司主要产品为汽车轻量化、航空、航天、航海轨道交通、消费电子、新能源、自动化等工业应用领域和高端建筑系统门窗市场的高性能铝材及制品。图表图表 4646：华加日公司主要产品示意图华加日公司主要产品示意图 来源：公司官网，国联证券研究所 汽车铝挤压材市场蓝海依旧。汽车铝挤压材市场蓝海依旧。2021 年中国汽车铝挤压材占比为 13.4%，全铝汽车中挤压材占比达到 20%，主要依靠铝挤压材部件渗透率的提升，根据亚太科技 2021 年年报，以车身/底盘转向节、副车架、控制臂为例，渗透率预计从2019年的28%/10%/19%提升至 2025 年的 60%/25%/40%。新能源车单车铝挤压材重量占比能达到 30%以上。29 请务必阅读报告末页的重要声明 公司报告公司深度研究公司报告公司深度研究 图表图表 4747：铝挤压材部件渗透率提升：铝挤压材部件渗透率提升 来源：亚太科技年报，国联证券研究所 4.2.中金科技主营电池锌粉市场占有率较高中金科技主营电池锌粉市场占有率较高 中金科技是专注于新材料领域的高科技企业。中金科技是专注于新材料领域的高科技企业。中金科技是中金岭南全资子公司，是专业研发及生产新能源材料、新材料、电子浆料及应用技术产品的国家级高新技术企业，深圳市（坪山区）区级新材料领域重点企业，致力于高新功能材料、新能源材料的研发制造，中金岭南博士后科研工作站依托单位，中金岭南国家级技术中心-绿色功能材料工程平台，拥有广东省院士工作站。公司广泛开展产学研合作，科研成果丰富，实现了多种高性能新材料及产品产业化。公司主营产品电池锌粉市场占有率较高。公司主营产品电池锌粉市场占有率较高。公司主要产品有无汞电池锌粉、片锌、特种防腐涂料、银粉铜粉等金属粉体和浆料、新能源用复合金属材料、冲孔镀镍钢带、冲孔铝箔等。主导产品无汞电池锌粉国内市场占有率较高，供应各大知名电池生产企业，成为全球重要的碱性电池锌粉供应商之一。28%0 0Pp%车身/底盘转向节副车架控制臂20192025 30 请务必阅读报告末页的重要声明 公司报告公司深度研究公司报告公司深度研究 图表图表 4848：中金科技主要产品示意图中金科技主要产品示意图 来源：公司官网，国联证券研究所 4.3.小金属为公司另一大亮点小金属为公司另一大亮点 丹霞冶炼厂炼锌渣绿色化升级改造项目有效提升公司经济效益。丹霞冶炼厂炼锌渣绿色化升级改造项目有效提升公司经济效益。丹霞冶炼厂锌氧压浸出系统产出的炼锌渣包含锌、铅、铜、银、镉、钴、硫等多种有价金属，但此前尚未得到充分回收利用。此外，过去炼锌渣处置渠道较窄，其中的有价金属在处置时价值被大幅压低，同时还存在一些处置费用，公司经济损失较大。2020 年公司可转债 14.1 亿募集资金用于丹霞冶炼厂炼锌渣绿色化升级改造项目，2022 年 5 月正式运营，年处理废渣 28.7 万吨，每年可综合回收有价金属包括铅锭 11.61 万吨、粗铜992.19 吨、镉锭 413.11 吨、银锭 120.42 吨，预计每年为公司带来净利润 1.43 亿元，具有良好的环境效益、经济效益和社会效益。31 请务必阅读报告末页的重要声明 公司报告公司深度研究公司报告公司深度研究 图表图表 4949：丹霞冶炼厂新貌丹霞冶炼厂新貌 来源：公司官网，国联证券研究所 5.盈利预测盈利预测、估值估值与投资建议与投资建议 5.1.铜：铜：流动性流动性边际边际改善与经济复苏支撑铜价中枢上行改善与经济复苏支撑铜价中枢上行 站在当前时点，我们认为 2023 年压制铜价的诸多因素有望得到缓解，全球经济复苏节奏或将成为工业金属（铜、铝等）定价的核心要素，随着美联储加息进入尾声、美元指数显著回落，金融属性对铜价的影响权重将较商品属性边际下降，库存水平处于历史低位、长期矿产资本开支不足等因素将有效支撑铜价，叠加全球流动性边际改善、新能源需求正旺，我们看好铜价中枢上行：（1）纵观 2022 年，铜价下行的核心因素在于宏观层面的压力，尤其是美联储大幅持续加息、俄乌冲突导致欧洲地区能源成本飙升、全球通胀持续上行的大背景下，导致经济衰退预期持续加重，对工业金属需求形成打压。当前，鉴于通胀水平温和回落、经济衰退预期加深，我们认为美联储加息进入尾声，美元指数显著回落，宏观因素有望边际改善，利好铜价重拾上行趋势；（2）供需格局来看，2023 年供需格局或由此前的紧平衡转为供略大于需，铜精矿原料缺口缩窄、供应偏宽松或将贯穿全年，但由于全球矿产资本开支周期总体呈下行趋势，2025 年开始全球铜矿供应有望再度转为供不应求格局。据 SMM 预计，全球铜矿供需平衡将于 2023 年达到峰值，过剩 21.6 万金属吨，2022-2023 年供应增速达到最大值的 7.2%，供应端主要以 Grasberg、Kamoa-Kakula、QB2、驱龙铜矿 Quellaveco 为代表的矿山新增产量为主。2024 年后铜增量将以原有矿山产量和扩建产量为主，大型矿山新开发投产的产量较少。具体来看，2023、2024、2025 年全球铜精矿产量分别为 2088、2203、2285 万吨，对应增速分别为 7.2%、5.5%、3.8%；32 请务必阅读报告末页的重要声明 公司报告公司深度研究公司报告公司深度研究（3）需求端，我们看好 2023 年中国经济增长前景、“三支箭”政策引导下房地产行业困境反转等对工业金属需求拉动。中国精炼铜消费量占到全球消费总量的 50%及以上，尽管消费增速已降至 3%左右，但随着中国 GDP 持续增长铜绝对消费量仍将保持高位。中国加速工业化、城镇化阶段已经结束，基建投资增速下滑、房地产行业政策持续高压等因素导致对铜消费增长动能趋弱。但 2022 年底中国房地产市场出现积极信号，“三支箭”或将提供政策端支持支持信贷、聚焦债券、放开股权，三箭齐发或将确认房企融资环境改善，房地产基本面有望迎来修复，进而带动地产相关产业链对铜的消费需求回升，如地产建设所需的电缆及相关变电设备，以及房屋装修所需的空调、冰箱、洗衣机等家用电器；（4）全球能源结构转型加速，新能源行业方兴未艾、景气上行，光伏、风电、新能源车铜需求持续增长。铜在光伏领域中主要用于连接器、电缆和逆变器等，据国际铜业协会数据显示，光伏领域单位耗铜量为每兆瓦 4 吨；铜在风电领域主要用于电缆、发电机和变压器等，风力发电机组单位耗铜量为每兆瓦 6 吨；铜在新能源汽车领域中主要用于电池、电机和充电桩等，新能源汽车单位耗铜量为每辆 83 千克。据 SMM数据，我们测算 2023-2025 年光伏耗铜量 116、129、142 万吨，对应增速 29%、11%、10%；2023-2025 年风电耗铜量 69、73、77 万吨，对应增速 4.5%、5.8%、5.5%；2023-2025 年新能源车耗铜量 115、142、176 万吨，对应增速 32%、23%、24%；2023-2025 年光风新总耗铜量 299、344、395 万吨，对应增速 22.5%、15.1%、14.8%；2023-2025 年光风新耗铜量占铜总消费量比例分别为 12%、13%、15%；（5）过去十年全球新发现大型铜矿稀少、矿山资本支出下降、长期开采之下铜品位呈降低趋势，资源稀缺性日益显著；此外，近些年资源民族主义抬头，矿业开发环境有恶化迹象，资源供应刚性化制约了中长期供应释放空间。根据伍德麦肯兹的数据显示，到 2026 年金属与矿业的总资本支出将下降 70%以上。铜资源稀缺性、供应链非稳态、品位下降、开发成本上升以及铜库存处于历史低位等因素对铜价形成有效支撑。图表图表 5050：房地产开发投资、施工竣工及新开工同比：房地产开发投资、施工竣工及新开工同比 图表图表 5151：电网电源投资累积同比电网电源投资累积同比 来源：Wind，国联证券研究所 来源：Wind，国联证券研究所 33 请务必阅读报告末页的重要声明 公司报告公司深度研究公司报告公司深度研究 图表图表 5252：2 2013013-20222022 年电子产品产量同比增速年电子产品产量同比增速 图表图表 5353：2 2020020-20222022 年中国汽车月度产量年中国汽车月度产量 来源：SMM，国联证券研究所 来源：SMM，国联证券研究所 图表图表 5454：空调产量（万台）及增速空调产量（万台）及增速 图表图表 5555：冰箱产量（万台）及增速冰箱产量（万台）及增速 来源：Wind，国联证券研究所 来源：Wind，国联证券研究所 图表图表 5656：中国铜冶炼厂粗炼费中国铜冶炼厂粗炼费 TCTC（美元（美元/干吨）干吨）图表图表 5757：中国铜冶炼厂精炼费中国铜冶炼厂精炼费 TCTC（美分（美分/磅）磅）来源：Wind，国联证券研究所 来源：Wind，国联证券研究所 -40-2002040600500100015002000250030002015-022015-052015-082015-112016-022016-052016-082016-112017-022017-052017-082017-112018-022018-052018-082018-112019-022019-052019-082019-112020-022020-052020-082020-112021-022021-052021-082021-112022-022022-052022-082022-11产量:空调:当月值产量:空调:累计同比-40-2002040600200400600800100012002015-022015-062015-102016-022016-062016-102017-022017-062017-102018-022018-062018-102019-022019-062019-102020-022020-062020-102021-022021-062021-102022-022022-062022-10产量:家用电冰箱:当月值产量:家用电冰箱:累计同比 34 请务必阅读报告末页的重要声明 公司报告公司深度研究公司报告公司深度研究 图表图表 5858：全球铜精矿产量预测全球铜精矿产量预测 图表图表 5959：2 2023023E E 铜精矿产量分区铜精矿产量分区 来源：SMM，国联证券研究所 来源：SMM，国联证券研究所 图表图表 6060：2 2024024E E 铜精矿产量分区铜精矿产量分区 图表图表 6161：2 2025025E E 铜精矿产量分区铜精矿产量分区 来源：SMM，国联证券研究所 来源：SMM，国联证券研究所 1720.61809.71947.620882202.92285.40.49%5.18%7.62%7.21%5.50%3.75%0%2%4%6%8001000150020002500202020212022202320242025产量（万吨）增速41%9%5%5%拉丁美洲亚洲北美洲非洲独联体地区欧洲大洋洲41%9%5%5%拉丁美洲亚洲北美洲非洲独联体地区欧洲大洋洲41%9%5%5%拉丁美洲亚洲北美洲非洲独联体地区欧洲大洋洲 35 请务必阅读报告末页的重要声明 公司报告公司深度研究公司报告公司深度研究 图表图表 6262：2 2023023 年海外主要新投产扩建铜矿山年海外主要新投产扩建铜矿山 来源：SMM，国联证券研究所 图表图表 6363：主要新投产扩建铜矿山未来变化量（万吨）主要新投产扩建铜矿山未来变化量（万吨）来源：SMM，国联证券研究所 5.2.锌锌：供应宽松、需求提升，冶炼端利润持续修复供应宽松、需求提升，冶炼端利润持续修复 供应端，2022 年受矿山闭坑、品位下降等影响海外锌精矿产量不及预期，秘鲁、澳大利亚矿山成为海外主要减量，据 SMM 预计全年海外锌矿产量同比降低 2.49%。36 请务必阅读报告末页的重要声明 公司报告公司深度研究公司报告公司深度研究 展望2023年，随着澳洲劳动力短缺问题有所缓解，澳洲地区矿山产量有望迎来增长，带动海外锌矿总产量小幅回升 2.8%。冶炼端，随着矿端恢复增长、供应放量，冶炼企业利润有望持续修复。需求端，我们看好 2023 年中国经济增长前景、“三支箭”政策引导下房地产行业困境反转等对工业金属需求拉动。2022 年底中国房地产市场出现积极信号，“三支箭”或将提供政策端支撑支持信贷、聚焦债券、放开股权，三箭齐发或将确认房企融资环境改善，房地产基本面有望迎来修复，带动锌产业链需求回升。图表图表 6464：2 2022022 年金属锌终端消费占比年金属锌终端消费占比 图表图表 6565：镀锌板是金属锌主要应用下游镀锌板是金属锌主要应用下游 来源：SMM，国联证券研究所 来源：SMM，国联证券研究所 图表图表 6666：2323 年海外锌矿产量同比增年海外锌矿产量同比增 2.8%2.8%（万吨）（万吨）图表图表 6767：秘鲁以及澳：秘鲁以及澳洲洲贡献海外主要减量贡献海外主要减量（万吨）（万吨）来源：SMM，国联证券研究所 来源：SMM，国联证券研究所 镀锌,67.78%黄铜,9.64%氧化锌,3.25%电池,6.21%压铸锌合金,11.02%其他,2.107 请务必阅读报告末页的重要声明 公司报告公司深度研究公司报告公司深度研究 图表图表 6868：SMMSMM 国产锌精矿周度加工费国产锌精矿周度加工费 图表图表 6969：SMMSMM 进口锌精矿周度加工费进口锌精矿周度加工费 来源：SMM，国联证券研究所 来源：SMM，国联证券研究所 图表图表 7070：锌精矿企业生产利润锌精矿企业生产利润 来源：SMM，国联证券研究所 图表图表 7171：精炼锌企业生产利润精炼锌企业生产利润 来源：SMM，国联证券研究所 38 请务必阅读报告末页的重要声明 公司报告公司深度研究公司报告公司深度研究 图表图表 7272：SMMSMM 锌下游采购经理人指数：镀锌锌下游采购经理人指数：镀锌 图表图表 7373：SMMSMM 锌下游采购经理人指数：压铸锌合金锌下游采购经理人指数：压铸锌合金 来源：SMM，国联证券研究所 来源：SMM，国联证券研究所 图表图表 7474：SMMSMM 锌下游采购经理人指数：氧化锌锌下游采购经理人指数：氧化锌 图表图表 7575：SMMSMM 锌下游采购经理人指数：黄铜锌下游采购经理人指数：黄铜 来源：SMM，国联证券研究所 来源：SMM，国联证券研究所 图表图表 7676：SMMSMM 锌下游采购经理人指数：电池锌下游采购经理人指数：电池 图表图表 7777：SMMSMM 锌下游采购经理人指数：锌下游采购经理人指数：综合综合 来源：SMM，国联证券研究所 来源：SMM，国联证券研究所 39 请务必阅读报告末页的重要声明 公司报告公司深度研究公司报告公司深度研究 图表图表 7878：镀锌板卷、冷轧及热轧价格逐步回升镀锌板卷、冷轧及热轧价格逐步回升 图表图表 7979：SMMSMM 镀锌周度开工率上行镀锌周度开工率上行 来源：SMM，国联证券研究所 来源：SMM，国联证券研究所 图表图表 8080：氧化锌（氧化锌（9 99.7%9.7%）平均价）平均价 图表图表 8181：氧化锌周度开工率氧化锌周度开工率 来源：SMM，国联证券研究所 来源：SMM，国联证券研究所 图表图表 8282：压铸锌合金锭平均价压铸锌合金锭平均价 图表图表 8383：压铸压铸锌合金锭锌合金锭周度开工率周度开工率 来源：SMM，国联证券研究所 来源：SMM，国联证券研究所 40 请务必阅读报告末页的重要声明 公司报告公司深度研究公司报告公司深度研究 5.3.盈盈利预测利预测 1 1）精矿产品：精矿产品：凡口铅锌矿、广西盘龙铅锌矿、多米尼加迈蒙矿均有技改提效措施，预计至 2025 年公司精矿产品有小幅提升，假设 2022-2025 年精矿产品销量分别为 29/31/35/38 万吨，单吨价分别为 12000/12500/13000/13000 元，成本端给予一些上涨，毛利率维持在 38%左右。2 2）冶炼产品：冶炼产品：公司一体化生产模式，假设 2022-2025 年冶炼产能与精矿产品保持一致，分别为 29/31/35/38 吨，单吨价分别为 23500/23500/24000/24000元，成本端给予一些上涨，毛利率维持在 20%左右。3 3）铝型材：铝型材：公司铝型材客户稳定，且客户存在明显扩产需求，预计公司也会提升相应产量，假设 2022-2025 年铝型材销量分别为 1.85/2/2/2.5 万吨，单吨价分别为 33000/34000/35000/35000 元，毛利率维持在 15%左右。4 4）铜：铜：预计 2023 年东营有色会有阴极铜产出，同时企业会提高铜矿自给率，假设 2023-2025 年阴极铜销量分别为 1.5/2.2/3 万吨，单吨价分别为68500/68500/71000 元，单吨成本价分别为 35000/35000/35000 元，毛利率约 49%。5 5）此外，公司未来将专注于矿产资源端，贸易类业务将不再为公司发力方向，假设 23 年贸易额为 450 亿元，且未来贸易额保持不变，毛利率保持0.1%。41 请务必阅读报告末页的重要声明 公司报告公司深度研究公司报告公司深度研究 图表图表 8484：公司营收测算汇总（亿元）公司营收测算汇总（亿元）20212021 2022E2022E 2023E2023E 2024E2024E 2022025 5E E 营业收入合计营业收入合计 441.00 441.00 544.18 544.18 580.81 580.81 600.86 600.86 618.03 618.03 yoyyoy 46.66F.66#.40#.40%6.73%6.73%3.45%3.45%2.86%2.86%毛利率毛利率 5.73%5.73%5.51%5.51%6.38%6.38%7.20%7.20%7.81%7.81%精矿产品精矿产品 20212021 2022E2022E 2023E2023E 2024E2024E 2022025 5E E 收入 33.3633.36 34.8034.80 38.7538.75 45.5045.50 49.4049.40 YOY 47.64G.64%4.32%4.32.35.35.42.42%8.57%8.57%毛利率 34.74.76.76.78.28.29.59.59.59.5%冶炼产品冶炼产品 20212021 2022E2022E 2023E2023E 2024E2024E 2022025 5E E 收入 61.1561.15 68.1568.15 72.8572.85 84.0084.00 91.2091.20 YOY 30.620.62.44.44%6.90%6.90.31.31%8.57%8.57%毛利率 16.2.2%.1%.1.1.1 .8 .8 .0 .0%铝型材铝型材 20212021 2022E2022E 2023E2023E 2024E2024E 2022025 5E E 收入 6.226.22 6.116.11 6.806.80 7.007.00 8.758.75 YOY 38.468.46%-1.84%1.84.38.38%2.94%2.94%.00%.00%毛利率 13.8.8.2.2.7.7.1.1.1.1%电池材料电池材料 20212021 2022E2022E 2023E2023E 2024E2024E 2022025 5E E 收入 5.765.76 6.126.12 6.216.21 6.296.29 6.386.38 YOY 28.64(.64%6.23%6.23%1.39%1.39%1.37%1.37%1.35%1.35%毛利率 11.8.8.5.5.3.3.2.2.0.0%有色金属贸易有色金属贸易 20212021 2022E2022E 2023E2023E 2024E2024E 2022025 5E E 收入 351.02351.02 450450 450450 450450 450450 YOY 55.79U.79%-0.29%0.29%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%毛利率 0.11%0.11%0.10%0.10%0.10%0.10%0.10%0.10%0.10%0.10%其他其他 20212021 2022E2022E 2023E2023E 2024E2024E 2022025 5E E 收入 9.819.81 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 YOY 8.69%8.69%-8.23%8.23%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%毛利率 12.24.24.11.11.11.11.11.11.11.11%铜铜 20212021 2022E2022E 2023E2023E 2024E2024E 2022025 5E E 收入 10.210.2 15.115.1 21.321.3 YOY 47.75G.75A.34A.34%毛利率 48.5H.5H.9H.9P.7P.7%来源：公司公告，国联证券研究所 我们预计，2022-24 年公司营收分别为 544.18/580.81/600.86 亿元，对应增速分别为23.40%/6.73%/3.45%，3年CAGR为10.9%；归母净利分别为13.19/18.58/28.87亿元，对应增速分别为 12.58%/40.83%/55.42%，3 年 CAGR 为 35.1%。EPS 分别为0.35/0.5/0.77 元。5.4.估值与投资建议估值与投资建议 相对估值法：选取驰宏锌锗、紫金矿业、洛阳钼业作为可比公司，2023 年平均 PE为 12.1，考虑到公司为多品种全产业链一体化公司，并且涉及铜加工领域，盈利能力更为丰厚，抗风险能力更强，给予公司 2023 年 14 倍 PE，对应价格为 6.96 元。42 请务必阅读报告末页的重要声明 公司报告公司深度研究公司报告公司深度研究 图表图表 8585：可比公司可比公司 P PE E 代码代码 公司简称公司简称 EPSEPS PEPE 2021A2021A 2022E2022E 2023E2023E 2024E2024E 2021A2021A 2022E2022E 2023E2023E 2024E2024E 600497.SH 驰宏锌锗 0.11 0.37 0.46 0.52 43.47 14.41 11.65 10.30 601899.SH 紫金矿业 0.6 0.76 0.92 1.03 12.73 12.32 12.32 11.05 603993.SH 洛阳钼业 0.24 0.28 0.48 0.58 23.6 16.2 12.34 10.2 平均值 0.32 0.47 0.62 0.71 26.60 14.31 12.1 10.52 000060.SZ 中金岭南 0.32 0.35 0.37 0.41 15.3 14.19 9.94 7.54 来源：iFind 预测，国联证券研究所（股价为 2023 年 3 月 24 日收盘价，可比公司 PE 为 iFind 机构一致预测）绝对估值法：我们做出下表中假设，采用 FCFE 绝对估值法对公司股权价值进行估算，得出每股价值为 7.3 元。图表图表 8686：F FCFECFE 参数假设参数假设 假设假设 数值数值 公司系数（参考上证指数收益率）1.9593 无风险利率 Rf（参考国债）2.9%市场预期回报率 Rm 7.5%第二阶段年数（年）4 第二阶段增长率 3%永续增长率（参考 CPI）1.7%有效税率 Tx（参考公司往年税率）14.97%WACC 7.5%来源：iFind，国联证券研究所 43 请务必阅读报告末页的重要声明 公司报告公司深度研究公司报告公司深度研究 考虑到公司在铅锌采选领域拥有较强的资源型竞争壁垒、同时布局“铜矿-铜冶炼”产业链拓宽企业护城河、深耕高端铝型材及新材料增强核心竞争力，结合新一轮国改行动下央国企估值提升预期。参考相对估值法与绝对估值法，我们给予公司目标价 7.13 元，首次覆盖给予“买入”评级。44 请务必阅读报告末页的重要声明 公司报告公司深度研究公司报告公司深度研究 6.风险提示风险提示 1 1）宏观经济风险宏观经济风险。公司主营产品铅、锌、铜等有色金属产品在工业生产中应用领域较为广泛，与国民经济运行周期的相关性较高。当国民经济进入下行周期时，将可能引起工业生产对公司产品需求的下降并加剧同行业企业的竞争。2 2）海外矿投产风险。海外矿投产风险。多米尼加未来出现影响政局安定的重大事件，有可能导致多米尼加迈蒙矿的建设、生产或供应直接被中断或终止，对项目的经营与收益造成重大不利影响。同时，多米尼加交通和电力等基础设施状况相对较差，铁路和公路设施不完善，可能会导致多米尼加矿投产不及预期。3 3）矿山资源储备风险。）矿山资源储备风险。在矿山建设、勘查及实际开采过程中，实际资源储量及可开采利用的储量可能会出现低于评估储量的情形，从而对未来经营业绩产生不利影响。4 4）财务财务并表风险：并表风险：公司目前已接管东营方圆有色，但方圆有色财务数据暂时未并入公司报表，具体并入时间可能存在风险。45 请务必阅读报告末页的重要声明 公司报告公司深度研究公司报告公司深度研究 财务预测摘要财务预测摘要 Table_Excel2 资产负债表资产负债表 利润表利润表 单位单位:百万元百万元 2020A2020A 2021A2021A 2022E2022E 2023E2023E 2024E2024E 单位单位:百万元百万元 2020A2020A 2021A2021A 2022E2022E 2023E2023E 2024E2024E 货币资金 1689.1782.5441.5808.6008.60 营业收入营业收入 30226 30226 44449 44449 54418 54418 58081 58081 60086 60086 应收账款 票据 834.7663.11506.1607.1663.16 营业成本 28233 41800 51417 54373 55759 预付账款 100.091.26 171.7183.2189.59 税金及附加 177 262 360 384 397 存货 2043.2406.3635.3844.3942.64 营业费用 134 149 109 116 60 其他 3747.3827.4078.4219.4297.69 管理费用 508 533 435 465 240 流动资产合计流动资产合计 8563.8563.9017.9017.1513115131159821598216431.116431.1 财务费用 150 159 407 359 195 长期股权投资 649.7794.7838.6882.5926.51 资 产 减 值 损-9 -23 -25 -27 -28 固定资产 7443.7828.7237.6528.5701.86 公 允 价 值 变-70 -28 0 0 0 在建工程 2637.4522.3768.3014.2261.22 投资净收益 188 318 240 240 240 无形资产 3098.4462.3718.2974.2231.15 其他 52 35 52 52 52 其他非流动资产 1927.952.6947.9943.2938.52 营业利润营业利润 878 878 1511 1511 1638 1638 2306 2306 3584 3584 非流动资产合计非流动资产合计 157841578418586185861652416524143441434412059.212059.2 营 业 外 净 收404 3 0 0 0 资产总计资产总计 243482434827604276043165631656303263032628490.428490.4 利润总额利润总额 1248 1248 1489 1489 1638 1638 2306 2306 3584 3584 短期借款 1912.3790.6666.4971.2082.08 所得税 148 268 245 345 537 应付账款 票据 1242.1082.1920.2030.2082.59 净利润净利润 1100 1100 1221 1221 1392 1392 1961 1961 3048 3048 其他 1405.2618.3370.3567.3656.85 少 数 股 东 损105 49 73 103 160 流动负债合计流动负债合计 4560.4560.7490.7490.119571195710569105697821.52 7821.52 归 属 于 母 公归 属 于 母 公995 995 1172 1172 1319 1319 1858 1858 2887 2887 长期带息负债 5152.4673.3264.1923.658.27 长期应付款 1793.1675.1675.1675.1675.73 财务比率财务比率 其他 0 0 0 0 0 2020A2020A 2021A2021A 2022E2022E 2023E2023E 2024E2024E 非流动负债合计非流动负债合计 6946 6946 6350 6350 4940 4940 3599 3599 2334 2334 成长能力成长能力 负债合计负债合计 13840 13840 16898 16898 14168 14168 10156 10156 13840 13840 营业收入 30226 44449 54418 58081 60086 少数股东权益 514 587 691 851 514 EBIT 878 1511 1638 2306 3584 股本 3738 3738 3738 3738 3738 EBITDA 1100 1221 1392 1961 3048 资本公积 1550 1936 1936 1936 1936 归母净利润 995 1172 1319 1858 2887 留存收益 7082 7663 8585 9882 11898 获利能力获利能力 股东权益合计股东权益合计 12202 12202 13250 13250 14171 14171 15468 15468 17484 17484 毛利率 6.6 6.0 5.5 6.4 7.2 负债和股东权益总负债和股东权益总24348 24348 27604 27604 31656 31656 30327 30327 28490 28490 净利率 3.3 2.6 2.4 3.2 4.8 ROE 8.2 8.8 9.3 12.0 16.5 现金流量表现金流量表 ROIC 6.7 7.4 8.4 9.8 14.9 单位单位:百万元百万元 2020A2020A 2021A2021A 2022E2022E 2023E2023E 2024E2024E 偿债能力偿债能力 净利润 1100 1221 1392 1961 3048 资产负债（%）47.3 50.1 53.4 46.7 35.6 折旧摊销 698 768 2106 2224 2329 流动比率 1.9 1.2 1.3 1.5 2.1 财务费用 150 159 407 359 195 速动比率 0.8 0.5 0.7 0.9 1.2 存货减少-188 -318 -240 -240 -240 营运能力营运能力 营运资金变动 55 -248 -1120 -177 -107 应 收 账 款 周39.3 67.0 37.1 37.1 37.1 其它 -213 156 41 41 41 存货周转率 24.71 40.06 28.00 28.00 28.00 经营活动现金流经营活动现金流 1602 1602 1737 1737 2586 2586 4168 4168 5266 5266 总 资 产 周 转1.2 1.6 1.7 1.9 2.1 资本支出 2644 4767 -0 0 0 每 股 指 标每 股 指 标 长期投资-844 -124 0 0 0 每股收益 0.27 0.31 0.35 0.50 0.77 其他 -7891 412 155 155 每 股 经 营 现0.43 0.46 0.69 1.12 1.41 投资活动现金流投资活动现金流-4714 4714 -3248 3248 412 412 155 155 155 155 每股净资产 3.09 3.39 3.64 3.98 4.52 债权融资-1404 1879 2876 -1695 -2889 估值比率估值比率 股权融资 4238 -479 -1410 -1341 -1265 市盈率 18.0 15.3 13.6 9.6 6.2 其他 -207 218 -805 -920 -1066 市净率 1.5 1.4 1.3 1.2 1.1 筹资活动现金流筹资活动现金流 2626 2626 1617 1617 661 661 -3956 3956 -5220 5220 EV/EBITDA 11.40 10.52 6.48 4.90 3.27 现金净增加额现金净增加额 -483 483 117 117 3659 3659 366 366 201 201 EV/EBIT 17.10 15.42 13.15 8.98 5.28 数据来源：公司公告、iFinD，国联证券研究所预测；股价为 2023 年 3 月 24 日收盘价 46 请务必阅读报告末页的重要声明 分析师声明分析师声明 本报告署名分析师在此声明：我们具有中国证券业协会授予的证券投资咨询执业资格或相当的专业胜任能力，本报告所表述的所有观点均准确地反映了我们对标的证券和发行人的个人看法。我们所得报酬的任何部分不曾与，不与，也将不会与本报告中的具体投资建议或观点有直接或间接联系。评级说明评级说明 投资建议的评级标准 评级 说明 报告中投资建议所涉及的评级分为股票评级和行业评级（另有说明的除外）。评级标准为报告发布日后 6到 12 个月内的相对市场表现，也即：以报告发布日后的 6 到 12 个月内的公司股价（或行业指数）相对同期相关证券市场代表性指数的涨跌幅作为基准。其中：A 股市场以沪深 300 指数为基准，新三板市场以三板成指（针对协议转让标的）或三板做市指数（针对做市转让标的）为基准；香港市场以摩根士丹利中国指数为基准；美国市场以纳斯达克综合指数或标普500 指数为基准；韩国市场以柯斯达克指数或韩国综合股价指数为基准。股票评级 买入 相对同期相关证券市场代表指数涨幅 20%以上 增持 相对同期相关证券市场代表指数涨幅介于 5 %之间 持有 相对同期相关证券市场代表指数涨幅介于-10%5%之间 卖出 相对同期相关证券市场代表指数跌幅 10%以上 行业评级 强于大市 相对同期相关证券市场代表指数涨幅 10%以上 中性 相对同期相关证券市场代表指数涨幅介于-10%之间 弱于大市 相对同期相关证券市场代表指数跌幅 10%以上 一般声明一般声明 除非另有规定，本报告中的所有材料版权均属国联证券股份有限公司（已获中国证监会许可的证券投资咨询业务资格）及其附属机构（以下统称“国联证券”）。未经国联证券事先书面授权，不得以任何方式修改、发送或者复制本报告及其所包含的材料、内容。所有本报告中使用的商标、服务标识及标记均为国联证券的商标、服务标识及标记。本报告是机密的，仅供我们的客户使用，国联证券不因收件人收到本报告而视其为国联证券的客户。本报告中的信息均来源于我们认为可靠的已公开资料，但国联证券对这些信息的准确性及完整性不作任何保证。本报告中的信息、意见等均仅供客户参考，不构成所述证券买卖的出价或征价邀请或要约。该等信息、意见并未考虑到获取本报告人员的具体投资目的、财务状况以及特定需求，在任何时候均不构成对任何人的个人推荐。客户应当对本报告中的信息和意见进行独立评估，并应同时考量各自的投资目的、财务状况和特定需求，必要时就法律、商业、财务、税收等方面咨询专家的意见。对依据或者使用本报告所造成的一切后果，国联证券及/或其关联人员均不承担任何法律责任。本报告所载的意见、评估及预测仅为本报告出具日的观点和判断。该等意见、评估及预测无需通知即可随时更改。过往的表现亦不应作为日后表现的预示和担保。在不同时期，国联证券可能会发出与本报告所载意见、评估及预测不一致的研究报告。国联证券的销售人员、交易人员以及其他专业人士可能会依据不同假设和标准、采用不同的分析方法而口头或书面发表与本报告意见及建议不一致的市场评论和/或交易观点。国联证券没有将此意见及建议向报告所有接收者进行更新的义务。国联证券的资产管理部门、自营部门以及其他投资业务部门可能独立做出与本报告中的意见或建议不一致的投资决策。特别声明特别声明 在法律许可的情况下，国联证券可能会持有本报告中提及公司所发行的证券并进行交易，也可能为这些公司提供或争取提供投资银行、财务顾问和金融产品等各种金融服务。因此，投资者应当考虑到国联证券及/或其相关人员可能存在影响本报告观点客观性的潜在利益冲突，投资者请勿将本报告视为投资或其他决定的唯一参考依据。版权声明版权声明 未经国联证券事先书面许可，任何机构或个人不得以任何形式翻版、复制、转载、刊登和引用。否则由此造成的一切不良后果及法律责任有私自翻版、复制、转载、刊登和引用者承担。联系我们联系我们 无锡：无锡：江苏省无锡市太湖新城金融一街 8 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物流行业：顺丰第80架全货机入列浙江首个货运机场枢纽获批-230328（24页）.pdf

本报告由中信建投证券股份有限公司在中华人民共和国（仅为本报告目的，不包括香港、澳门、台湾）提供。在遵守适用的法律法规情况下，本报告亦可能由中信建投（国际）证券有限公司在香港提供。同时请参阅最后一页的重要声明。证券研究报告证券研究报告行业动态行业动态 顺丰第顺丰第 80 架架全货机全货机入列入列，浙江首个货浙江首个货运机场枢纽获批运机场枢纽获批 核心观点核心观点 1）顺丰第 80 架全货机入列。自 2009 年以来，顺丰航空以平均每年 6 架的速度扩充运力，目前 80 架全货机中宽体机占比近30%，平均每天执行近 150 个航班。2）浙江嘉兴首个机场货运枢纽获批，2030 年设计货邮吞吐量 90万吨，总投资 13.59 亿元。机场主体工程、圆通航空物流项目已进入全面开工建设阶段，预计 2025 年建成。3）菜鸟联合中国人寿，共同出资 12 亿，成立杭州吉仓物流合伙企业。行业动态信息行业动态信息 行业综述：行业综述：从交运各子板块相对沪深 300 的表现来看，本周（3 月 20 日-3月 24 日）交运板块整体保持稳定，快递板块上涨 0.45%。快递快递：顺丰第顺丰第 80 架全货机入列，架全货机入列，浙江首个货运机场枢纽获批浙江首个货运机场枢纽获批 顺丰第顺丰第 80 架全货机入列架全货机入列。3 月 26 日上午，顺丰航空第 80 架全货机（B767-300BCF）飞抵深圳宝安国际机场，正式入列顺丰机队。自 2009 年以来，顺丰航空以平均每年 6 架的速度扩充运力，并持续扩大宽体机比例，目前机队包括 3 架 B747-400ERF、19 架B767-300BCF、41 架 B757-200F、17 架 B737-300/400F，其中宽宽体机占比近体机占比近 30%，投放于全国，投放于全国 40 余个城市和地区，平均每天执余个城市和地区，平均每天执行近行近 150 个航班。个航班。浙江省发展改革委批复嘉兴机场货运工程可行性研究报告，标志浙江省发展改革委批复嘉兴机场货运工程可行性研究报告，标志着嘉兴航空货运枢纽工程全面启动。着嘉兴航空货运枢纽工程全面启动。嘉兴机场货运工程将按照满足 2030 年货邮吞吐量 90 万吨设计，新增机位 28 个，总用地 831亩，总投资 13.59 亿元。主要建设内容包括新建 23 个机位的货机坪、5 个机位的维修机坪，机务维修工程新建 1 个维修机库及配套辅助用房。嘉兴航空物流枢纽工程正在加快推进，机场主体工程、圆通航空物流项目目前已处全面开工建设阶段，预计将于2025 年建成。维持维持 强于大市强于大市 韩军韩军 SAC 编号：S1440519110001 SFC 编号：BRP908 发布日期：2023 年 03 月 28 日 市场表现市场表现 相关研究报告相关研究报告 -11%-6%-1%4%9 22/3/212022/4/212022/5/212022/6/212022/7/212022/8/212022/9/212022/10/212022/11/212022/12/212023/1/212023/2/21物流上证指数物流物流 1 物流物流 行业动态研究报告 请参阅最后一页的重要声明 菜鸟联合中国人寿在杭州成立物流企业，出资额菜鸟联合中国人寿在杭州成立物流企业，出资额 12 亿。亿。3 月 22 日，杭州吉仓物流合伙企业（有限合伙）成立，出资额约 12.21 亿元人民币，出资人包括吉仓（天津）物流股权投资基金合伙企业（有限合伙）、中国人寿旗下国寿置业投资管理有限公司以及菜鸟供应链旗下杭州游鹄企业管理有限公司。其中吉仓（天津）物流股权投资基金合伙企业（有限合伙）前两大合伙人为国寿投资保险资产管理有限公司、浙江菜鸟供应链管理有限公司。经营范围含国内货物运输代理；普通货物仓储服务；装卸搬运；企业管理咨询。建议建议长期长期关注顺丰控股、中通快递、京东物流（德邦股份）。关注顺丰控股、中通快递、京东物流（德邦股份）。2022 年 11 月 20 日，京东集团董事局主席刘强东召集所有高管，进行了一场近四小时的管理培训会议，被视为刘强东“回归一线”的标志。2023 年 3 月 5日，京东正式宣布“百亿补贴”将于 3 月 6 日晚 8 点全面上线，驱动京东物流营收快速增长。根据京东物流年报，2024 年其目标净利率为 1.5%，或有望超预期实现。pPqR3ZdUaYbZvZ9YzW8ObPbRoMqQoMtQfQpPmPfQpNyR9PnMoOwMpOvNwMnQtR 2 物流物流 行业动态研究报告 请参阅最后一页的重要声明 目录目录 核心观点.1 一、行情综述：快递板块有所回升.4 1.1 A 股市场：快递板块有所回升.4 1.2 港股及海外市场：快递板块整体有所回升.5 二、行业动态：1-2 月快递业务量同比增长 4.6%.7 2.1 重点事件：顺丰第 80 架全货机入列，浙江首个货运机场枢纽获批.7 2.2 件量：2 月快递业务量同比增长 32.8%，快递收入同比增长 29.3%.8 2.3 价格：1-2 月单票价格预计为 10.05 元/件，同比增长 0.2%.11 2.4 上游：1-2 月社会消费品零售总额同比增长 3.5%.12 三、竞争格局：2 月 CR8 环比继续提升，各家价格策略不一.15 四、投资评价和建议.19 4.1 快递：关注顺丰控股、中通快递、京东物流（德邦股份）.19 4.2 物流：风逐“良田”，筑篱细作，静待丰收.20 五、风险分析.21 图表目录图表目录 图表 1：交通运输行业各子板块与沪深 300 的超额收益.4 图表 2：交通运输行业涨跌幅股票排名前十（单位：%）.4 图表 3：快递板块涨跌幅表现.4 图表 4：A 股市场快递物流板块主要标的股价表现及估值.5 图表 5：港股及海外市场快递物流板块主要标的股价表现及估值.6 图表 6：全国整车货运流量约为 2019 年日均值的 99.69%.8 图表 7：广西整车货运流量约为 2019 年日均值的 80.48%.8 图表 8：辽宁整车货运流量约为 2019 年日均值的 72.36%.8 图表 9：黑龙江整车货运流量约为 2019 年日均值的 107.08%.8 图表 10：3 月 23 日上海、吉林整车货运流量环比 3 月 22 日分别增长 10.65pct、下降 0.43pct.9 图表 11：规模以上快递业务收入同比增速.9 图表 12：规模以上快递业务量增速.10 图表 13：同城、异地、国际港澳台快递收入及同比.10 图表 14：同城、异地、国际港澳台快递业务量及同比.10 图表 15：东、中、西部地区快递收入及同比.11 图表 16：东、中、西部地区快递业务量及同比.11 图表 17：规模以上快递业务单票收入及同比.11 图表 18：同城、异地快递业务单票价格变化.12 图表 19：东、中、西部单票价格变化.12 图表 20：中国社会消费品零售总额同比增速.12 图表 21：中国实物网上零售额累计同比增速.13 3 物流物流 行业动态研究报告 请参阅最后一页的重要声明 图表 22：实物商品网上零售额占比.13 图表 23：网上商品零售额吃穿用累计同比增速.13 图表 24：中国电商物流指数(ELI).14 图表 25：快递服务品牌集中度指数 CR8.15 图表 26：快递企业增速出现分化.15 图表 27：顺丰、韵达、申通、圆通月度市占率变化（单位：%）.16 图表 28：快递企业单票收入企稳回升.16 图表 29：快递行业上市公司月度经营数据（单票收入：元，业务收入：亿元，快递业务量：亿票）.17 图表 30：快递企业申诉率.18 图表 31：快递企业有效申诉率.18 图表 32：2022 年 2 月主要快递企业申诉率和有效申诉率.18 4 物流物流 行业动态研究报告 请参阅最后一页的重要声明 一、行情综述：快递板块一、行情综述：快递板块有所有所回升回升 1.1 A 股股市场：快递板块市场：快递板块有所有所回升回升 从交运各子板块相对沪深 300 的表现来看，本周（3 月 20 日-3 月 24 日）交运板块整体保持稳定，快递板块上涨 0.45%。图表图表1：交通运输行业各子板块与沪深交通运输行业各子板块与沪深 300 的超额收益的超额收益 资料来源：Wind，中信建投 本周（3 月 20 日-3 月 24 日）中谷物流、德新科技和 ST 万林领涨，涨幅分别为 6.2%、4.7%和 4.5%；锦州港、密尔克卫和天顺股份本周跌幅分别为 16.7%、16.1%和 14.8%。本周快递板块中顺丰控股和申通股份本周涨幅分别为 2.34%和 1.05%，德邦股份、韵达股份和圆通速递本周跌幅为 5.05%、4.43%和 2.36%。图表图表2：交通运输行业涨跌幅股票排名前十交通运输行业涨跌幅股票排名前十（单位：（单位：%）图表图表3：快递板块涨跌幅表现快递板块涨跌幅表现 资料来源：Wind，中信建投 资料来源：Wind，中信建投 -150%-100%-50%0P00 19/12019/52019/92020/12020/52020/92021/12021/52021/92022/12022/52022/92023/1公路铁路公交快递航运港口航空机场物流综合排名证券简称涨幅证券简称跌幅1中谷物流6.2锦州港-16.72德新科技4.7密尔克卫-16.13ST万林4.5天顺股份-14.84招商港口4.3连云港-10.85海航控股4.1厦门象屿-9.96传化智联3.8山西路桥-8.97外服控股3.6嘉友国际-8.38怡亚通2.9长久物流-8.39华鹏飞2.5三羊马-8.010顺丰控股2.3龙江交通-7.2排名证券简称涨幅证券简称跌幅1顺丰控股2.34%德邦股份-5.05%2申通快递1.05%韵达股份-4.43%3圆通速递-2.36E 5 物流物流 行业动态研究报告 请参阅最后一页的重要声明 图表4：A 股市场快递物流板块主要标的股价表现及估值股市场快递物流板块主要标的股价表现及估值 细分行业细分行业 上市公司上市公司 股票代码股票代码 市值（亿元）市值（亿元）周涨跌幅周涨跌幅 年初至今涨幅年初至今涨幅 PE（TTM）PB EV/EBITDA 快递 顺丰控股 002352.SZ 2,630.19 2.34%-6.987.88 3.10 13.96 申通快递 002468.SZ 161.50 1.05%2.13%-35.07 2.00 44.17 圆通速递 600233.SH 627.01 -2.36%-9.31.00 2.45 13.00 韵达股份 002120.SZ 350.88 -4.43%-15.92$.02 2.13 9.81 德邦股份 603056.SH 179.41 -5.05%-16.13.60 2.59 6.84 资料来源：Wind，中信建投 注：均为Wind客观数据，不包含预测数据 1.2 港股及海外市场：快递板块港股及海外市场：快递板块整体有所回整体有所回升升 本周（3 月 20 日-3 月 24 日）港股及海外市场快递物流板块有所回升。快递板块中联邦快递和 UPS 本周分别下跌1.23%和0.39%，百世集团上涨8.52%，京东物流上涨2.98%，中通快递美股和H股分别上涨0.21%和2.99%；仓储物流板块 ESR 上涨 7.56%；其余板块较稳定。6 物流物流 行业动态研究报告 请参阅最后一页的重要声明 图表图表5：港股及海港股及海外市场快递物外市场快递物流板块主要标的股价表现及估值流板块主要标的股价表现及估值 细分行业细分行业 上市公司上市公司 股票代码股票代码 市值市值(亿美元亿美元)周涨跌幅周涨跌幅(%)年初至今涨幅年初至今涨幅(%)PE（TTM）PB EV/EBITDA 快递 联合包裹服务（UPS）UPS.N 1,597.86-0.39%7.98.84 11.21 9.65 联邦快递（FEDEX）FDX.N 546.94-1.23&.33.31 2.19 7.32 中通快递 ZTO.N 235.76 0.21%6.10$.11 3.09-百世集团 BEST.N 0.65 8.52G.98%-0.31 0.20-中通快递 2057.HK 239.36 2.99%7.37$.65 3.16-京东物流 2618.HK 116.43 2.98%-8.47%-58.44 1.97-快运 安能物流 9956.HK 7.18-4.15%4.30.22 2.11-4.40 零担货运 统领货运线 ODFL.O 362.54-0.62.25&.32 9.85 17.11 TFI INTERNATIONAL TFII.N 97.22-3.34.98.81 4.38 7.02 仓储物流 中国物流资产 1589.HK 19.12 0.00%0.47%-4,362.35 1.06 28.81 ESR 1821.HK 76.62 7.56%-16.61.43 1.98 10.76 跨境物流 中国外运 0598.HK 24.81-1.48%5.12%4.22 0.48-嘉里物流 0636.HK 29.24-4.80%-9.54%3.31 1.09 3.11 嘉泓物流 2130.HK 2.81 0.00%-4.65.21 5.48 7.97 卡车运输 JB 亨特运输服务 JBHT.O 172.36-0.84%-4.53.78 5.53 9.33 KNIGHT-SWIFT KNX.N 89.18 3.26%5.99.56 1.36 6.16 SCHNEIDER NATIONAL SNDR.N 45.42-2.56%9.36%9.92 1.87 4.55 沃纳企业 WERN.O 26.80-1.67%5.24.11 2.02 5.31 货运代理 德国邮政（DHL）DPW.DF-3.34.16%-2.72 10.30 DSV PANALPINA 0JN9.L-3.17.51%-3.78 20.95 Kuehne Nagel（KNIN）KNIN.SIX 344.68 4.74.12.55 9.90 8.55 罗宾逊全球物流 CHRW.O 111.24-0.45%4.93.83 5.50 10.23 康捷国际物流 EXPD.O 161.33-1.82%0.55.89 4.62 7.46 XPO LOGISTICS XPO.N 35.11-4.61%-8.68%5.27 3.09 8.59 合同物流 GXO LOGISTICS GXO.N 54.55 4.46%7.59.69 2.32 11.41 车货匹配平台 满帮集团 YMM.N 78.36-0.56%-11.634.18 1.59 资料来源：Wind，中信建投 注：均为Wind客观数据，不包含预测数据 7 物流物流 行业动态研究报告 请参阅最后一页的重要声明 二、行二、行业动态：业动态：1-2 月快递业务量月快递业务量同比增长同比增长 4.6%2.1 重点事件：重点事件：顺丰第顺丰第 80 架架全货机全货机入列，入列，浙江首个货运机场枢纽获批浙江首个货运机场枢纽获批 1、顺丰第顺丰第 80 架全货机入列架全货机入列 3 月月 26 日上午，顺丰航空第日上午，顺丰航空第 80 架全货机（架全货机（B767-300BCF）飞抵深圳宝安国际机场，停靠在顺丰速运华南）飞抵深圳宝安国际机场，停靠在顺丰速运华南转运中心临空一侧，正式入列顺丰机队。转运中心临空一侧，正式入列顺丰机队。2009 年底，顺丰航空在深圳迎来首架全货机（B-2899、B757-200F），开通了首条国内货运航线“深圳=杭州”。历经逾十三年的发展，顺丰航空逐步搭建起能够支撑国内、国际货运航线网络运行的梯队运力，包括 3 架 B747-400ERF、19 架 B767-300BCF、41 架 B757-200F、17 架 B737-300/400F，其中宽体机占比近 30%。自开航以来，顺丰航空以平均每年 6 架的速度扩充运力，并持续扩大宽体机比例，目前，顺丰航空 80 架全货机投放于全国 40 余个城市和地区，平均每天执行近 150 个航班。2、浙江浙江嘉兴嘉兴首个货运机场枢纽获批首个货运机场枢纽获批 浙江省发展改革委批复嘉兴机场货运工程可行性研究报告，标志着嘉兴航空货运枢纽工程全面启动。报告显示，嘉兴机场货运工程按照满足 2030 年货邮吞吐量 90 万吨设计，新增机位 28 个，总用地 831 亩，总投资13.59 亿元。主要建设内容包括新建 23 个机位的货机坪、5 个机位的维修机坪，机务维修工程新建 1 个维修机库及配套辅助用房。工程计划 2023 年 9 月开工建设，2025 年与机场主体工程同步建成、同步投运。嘉兴航空物流枢纽工程正在加快推进，机场主体工程、圆通航空物流项目目前已处全面开工建设阶段，预计将于 2025 年建成。建成后，嘉兴机场可起降波音 737、空客 320 系列等主流民航客货机，开通至国内各主要城市航线及境外国际航线，满足年旅客吞吐量 180 万人次、货邮吞吐量 10 万吨的目标设计，打造全球航空物流枢纽中心。3、菜鸟联手中国人寿菜鸟联手中国人寿在杭州在杭州成立物流企业，成立物流企业，出资额出资额 12 亿元亿元 3 月 22 日，杭州吉仓物流合伙企业（有限合伙）成立，出资额约 12.21 亿元人民币，执行事务合伙人为徐跃东，经营范围含国内货物运输代理；普通货物仓储服务；装卸搬运；企业管理咨询。出资人包括吉仓（天津）物流股权投资基金合伙企业（有限合伙）、中国人寿旗下国寿置业投资管理有限公司以及菜鸟供应链旗下杭州游鹄企业管理有限公司，其中吉仓（天津）物流股权投资基金合伙企业（有限合伙）前两大合伙人为国寿投资保险资产管理有限公司、浙江菜鸟供应链管理有限公司。8 物流物流 行业动态研究报告 请参阅最后一页的重要声明 2.2 件量件量：2 月快递业务量同比月快递业务量同比增长增长 32.8%，快递收入同比，快递收入同比增长增长 29.3%根据国家邮政局数据，2023 年年 2 月快递业务量收月快递业务量收入入同比分别增长同比分别增长 32.8%和和 29.3%，2 月日均业务量近月日均业务量近 3.3亿件。亿件。根据国家邮政局数据，2023 年年 1-2 月月快递业务量累计完成快递业务量累计完成 164.0 亿件，同比增长亿件，同比增长 4.6%。根据交通部日度数据推算，2023 年年 1-2 月快递累计件量约月快递累计件量约 172.4 亿件，同比增长约亿件，同比增长约 10.0%。截至 3 月 23 日全国整车货运流量约为 2019 年日均值的 99.69%，同比增长 0.88pct。其中广西、辽宁及黑龙江货运流量为 2019 年日均值的 80.48%、101.63%、107.08%，同比增长 26.27pct、22.44pct、21.01pct，本周同比增长位居前列。图表图表6：全国整车货运流量约为全国整车货运流量约为 2019 年日均值的年日均值的 99.69%图表图表7：广西广西整车货运流量约为整车货运流量约为 2019 年日均值的年日均值的 80.48%资料来源：Wind，中信建投 资料来源：Wind，中信建投 图表图表8：辽宁辽宁整车货运流量约为整车货运流量约为 2019 年日均值的年日均值的 72.36%图表图表9：黑龙江黑龙江整车货运流量约为整车货运流量约为 2019 年日均值的年日均值的107.08%资料来源：Wind，中信建投 资料来源：Wind，中信建投 99.690204060801001201401602022-03-012022-03-132022-03-252022-04-062022-04-182022-04-302022-05-122022-05-242022-06-052022-06-172022-06-292022-07-112022-07-232022-08-042022-08-162022-08-282022-09-092022-09-212022-10-032022-10-152022-10-272022-11-082022-11-202022-12-022022-12-142022-12-262023-01-072023-01-192023-01-312023-02-122023-02-242023-03-082023-03-20整车货运流量指数：全国3月12日新增本土病例达1807例，4月30日每日新增降至1000例以下 9 物流物流 行业动态研究报告 请参阅最后一页的重要声明 图表图表10：3 月月 23 日上海、吉林整车货运流量环比日上海、吉林整车货运流量环比 3 月月 22 日分别增长日分别增长 10.65pct、下降、下降 0.43pct 资料来源：Wind，中信建投 图表图表11：规模以上快递业务收入同比增速规模以上快递业务收入同比增速 资料来源：Wind，中信建投 62 63 72 80 84 84 84 91 92 94 95 95 97 99 100 101 102 103 106 107 109 109 110 110 112 112 113 123 153 153 169-100%-80%-60%-40%-20%0 0406080100120140160180北京山西青海广西宁夏天津吉林湖南陕西山东湖北上海重庆四川全国云南辽宁福建广东黑龙江江苏安徽河北江西内蒙古浙江河南贵州海南新疆甘肃各省份整车货运流量指数环比变化（%）(右轴)-10%0 0P00400600800100012001400160018002010/032010/072010/112011/042011/082011/122012/052012/092013/1-22013/062013/102014/032014/072014/112015/042015/082015/122016/052016/092017/1-22017/062017/102018/032018/072018/112019/042019/082019/122020/052020/092021/1-22021/062021/102022/032022/072022/11规模以上快递业务收入规模以上快递业务收入同比 10 物流物流 行业动态研究报告 请参阅最后一页的重要声明 图表图表12：规模以上快递业务量增速规模以上快递业务量增速 资料来源：Wind，中信建投 分类来看，2023 年 1-2 月同城、异地、国际/港澳台快递业务量分别占全部快递业务量的 10.4%、87.2%和2.4%；业务收入分别占全部快递收入的 6.0%、51.2%和 10.6%。与去年同期相比，同城快递业务量的比重下降1.4 个百分点，异地快递业务量的比重增长 0.9 个百分点，国际/港澳台业务量的比重增长 0.5 个百分点。图表图表13：同城、异地、国际港澳台快递收入及同比同城、异地、国际港澳台快递收入及同比 图表图表14：同城、异地、国际港澳台快递业务量及同比同城、异地、国际港澳台快递业务量及同比 资料来源：Wind，中信建投 资料来源：Wind，中信建投 分区域来看，2023 年 1-2 月东、中、西部地区快递业务量比重分别为 76.0%、16.1%和 7.9%，业务收入比重分别为 75.9%、14.2%和 9.9%。与去年同期相比，东部地区快递业务量比重下降 1.7 个百分点，快递业务收入比重下降 1.3 个百分点；中部地区快递业务量比重上升 0.9 个百分点，快递业务收入比重上升 0.6 个百分点；西部地区快递业务量比重上升 0.8 个百分点，快递业务收入比重上升 0.7 个百分点。-20%0 004060801001201401601802010/032010/072010/112011/042011/082011/122012/052012/092013/1-22013/062013/102014/032014/072014/112015/042015/082015/122016/052016/092017/1-22017/062017/102018/032018/072018/112019/042019/082019/122020/052020/092021/1-22021/062021/102022/032022/072022/11规模以上快递业务量规模以上快递业务量同比-20%0 000400600800100012002010/032010/092011/042011/102012/052012/112013/062013/122014/072015/1-22015/082016/032016/092017/042017/102018/052018/112019/062019/122020/072021/1-22021/082022/032022/09同城异地国际及港澳台同城同比异地同比国际及港澳台同比-20%0 0004060801001201401601802010/032010/082011/1-22011/072011/122012/062012/112013/052013/102014/042014/092015/032015/082016/1-22016/072016/122017/062017/112018/052018/102019/042019/092020/032020/082021/1-22021/072021/122022/062022/11同城异地国际及港澳台同城同比异地同比国际及港澳台同比 11 物流物流 行业动态研究报告 请参阅最后一页的重要声明 图表图表15：东、中、西部地区快递收入及同比东、中、西部地区快递收入及同比 图表图表16：东、中、西部地区快递业务量及同比东、中、西部地区快递业务量及同比 资料来源：Wind，中信建投 资料来源：Wind，中信建投 2.3 价格：价格：1-2 月单票价格月单票价格预计为预计为 10.05 元元/件，件，同比同比增长增长 0.2%根据国家邮政局数据根据国家邮政局数据推算推算，1-2 月行业单票价格为月行业单票价格为 10.05 元元/件，件，同比同比增长增长 0.16%。图表图表17：规模以上快递业务单票收入及同比规模以上快递业务单票收入及同比 资料来源：Wind，中信建投 分类来看，2022 年 1-12 月同城、异地、国际/港澳台快递单票平均价格分别为 5.08、5.22、54.91 元/件，同比变化分别为-5.5%、-7.6%、104.4%。分区域来看，2022 年 12 月，东、中、西部地区平均单票价格分别为 9.55、8.15、11.60 元/件，同比变化分别为 5.2%、9.7%、6.3%。-20%0 000400600800100012001400160018002010/032010/092011/042011/102012/052012/112013/062013/122014/072015/1-22015/082016/032016/092017/042017/102018/052018/112019/062019/122020/072021/1-22021/082022/032022/09东部中部西部东部同比中部同比西部同比-20%0 004060801001201401601802010/032010/082011/1-22011/072011/122012/062012/112013/052013/102014/042014/092015/032015/082016/1-22016/072016/122017/062017/112018/052018/102019/042019/092020/032020/082021/1-22021/072021/122022/062022/11东部中部西部东部同比中部同比西部同比-30%-20%-10%0 010152025302010/032010/072010/112011/042011/082011/122012/052012/092013/1-22013/062013/102014/032014/072014/112015/042015/082015/122016/052016/092017/1-22017/062017/102018/032018/072018/112019/042019/082019/122020/052020/092021/1-22021/062021/102022/032022/072022/11规模以上快递业务单票收入规模以上快递业务单票收入同比 12 物流物流 行业动态研究报告 请参阅最后一页的重要声明 图表图表18：同城、异地快递业务单票价格变化同城、异地快递业务单票价格变化 图表图表19：东、中、西部单票价格变化东、中、西部单票价格变化 资料来源：Wind，中信建投 资料来源：Wind，中信建投 2.4 上游：上游：1-2 月月社会消费品零售总额同比社会消费品零售总额同比增长增长 3.5%根据根据国家统计局数据国家统计局数据，2023 年年 1-2 月份，社会消费品零售总额月份，社会消费品零售总额 77067 亿元，同比增长亿元，同比增长 3.5%，2022 年年 12 月月份为下降份为下降 1.8%，扭转了，扭转了 2022 年年 10 月以来连续三个月下降的趋势月以来连续三个月下降的趋势。商品零售线上渠道表现继续优于线下，百货业态增速由负转正。线上渠道，2023 年 1-2 月，实物商品网上零售额为 1.75 万亿元/ 5.3%，实物商品网上零售额占商品零售比重为 25.5%，其中，吃类、穿类和用类商品同比分别增长 5.3%、4.0%、5.7%。线下渠道，2023年 1-2 月，实物商品线下零售额（商品零售额-实物商品网上零售额）约为 5.12 万亿元/ 1.6%。05101520252010/032010/082011/1-22011/072011/122012/062012/112013/052013/102014/042014/092015/032015/082016/1-22016/072016/122017/062017/112018/052018/102019/042019/092020/032020/082021/1-22021/072021/122022/062022/11同城异地051015202530352010/032010/082011/1-22011/072011/122012/062012/112013/052013/102014/042014/092015/032015/082016/1-22016/072016/122017/062017/112018/052018/102019/042019/092020/032020/082021/1-22021/072021/122022/062022/11东部中部西部图表图表20：中国社会消费品零售总额同比增速中国社会消费品零售总额同比增速 资料来源：Wind，中信建投-30-20-10010203040200520062007200820092010201120122013201420152016201720182019202020212022社会消费品零售总额:当月同比社会消费品零售总额:实际当月同比 13 物流物流 行业动态研究报告 请参阅最后一页的重要声明 图表图表22：实物商品网上零售额占比实物商品网上零售额占比 图表图表23：网上商品零售额吃穿用累计同比增速网上商品零售额吃穿用累计同比增速 资料来源：Wind，中信建投 资料来源：Wind，中信建投 根据中国物流与采购联合会发布的数据，根据中国物流与采购联合会发布的数据，2023 年年 2 月中国电商物流指数为月中国电商物流指数为 107.2 点，比上月提高点，比上月提高 2.6 个点。个点。9 个分项指数全面回升，总业务量指数、农村业务量指数、实载率指数、履约率指数、人员指数、成本指数、库存周转指数、物流时效指数和满意率指数均有所提高。随着稳经济政策措施效应进一步显现，企业复工复产、复商复市进程加快，电商物流运行呈加快恢复态势，总指数在 1 月回升 1.8 个点之后，本月继续回升 2.6 个点，涨幅有所扩大。需求端全面上涨，三大地区电商物流业务总量和农村电商业务量均有所提升。供给端 7 个分项指数全面回升，在春节后复工复产的带动下，人员指数创 3 年新高，但物流时效、履约率和满意率指数仍处于 100 以下，有待进一步修复。后期来看，需求端各项指数虽实现连续上涨，但与往年相比，整体还处于低位，仍有较大增长空间，预计 3 月电商物流指数将在需求带动下继续回升。051015202530201520162017201820192020202120222023-30-20-1001020304050607020152016201720182019202020212022吃穿用图表图表21：中国实物网上零售额累计同比增速中国实物网上零售额累计同比增速 资料来源：Wind，中信建投 051015202530354045500200004000060000800001000001200001400002015-042016-042017-042018-042019-042020-042021-042022-04社会消费品零售总额:实物商品网上零售额:累计值社会消费品零售总额:实物商品网上零售额:累计同比 14 物流物流 行业动态研究报告 请参阅最后一页的重要声明 图表图表24：中国中国电商物流指数电商物流指数(ELI)资料来源：Wind，中信建投 60801001201401601802016201720182019202020212022综合指数总业务量指数农村业务量指数 15 物流物流 行业动态研究报告 请参阅最后一页的重要声明 三、三、竞争格局：竞争格局：2 月月 CR8 环比继续提升，各家价格策略不一环比继续提升，各家价格策略不一 1）稳需求措施效应进一步显现，PMI 以及制造业与服务业快件指数均继续上升，快递需求发展态势持续向好。2）行业整体单票价格 9.26 元，同比下降 2.7%，环比下降 12.8%；其中：预估电商件价格降至约 8.4 元/件，环比下降 10.2%。3）1-2 月整体，全国快递行业业务量完成 164.1 亿件，同比增长 4.7%；业务收入完成 1617.2 亿元，同比增长 2.7%。根据交通部数据，3 月至今全国快递揽收日均 3.64 亿件，同比增长约 32%。4）行业“价格风向标”义乌地区 2 月快递价格下降至 2.79 元/件（下降约 0.43 元/件），环比下降 13.5%，同比下降 9.2%，基本提前到达去年淡季价格低点。其中华东地区大部分降幅在 13-15%，高于华南和华北的下降幅度 5-7%，但促进件量高速增长。5）TOP8 快递 1-2 月业务量同增长 4.4%，涨幅小于去年同期且与行业基本持平，申通（21.1%）圆通（18.6%）顺丰（13.9%）行业（4.6%）韵达（-11.6%）。各家快递品牌公司市场份额回归淡季正常水平，圆通及申通分别得益于稳定的策略以及不断提升产能，两者市占率均创下近四年新高，圆通（17.0%）韵达（15.0%）申通（13.4%）顺丰（9.6%），2 月单月快递品牌集中度 CR8 环比继续提升 1.5pct 达到 85.3。6）2 月各家快递公司面对淡季及派费政策变化出现不一的价格策略：快递行业整体价格环比降幅低于通达系各家快递总部，韵达(-5.6%)圆通(-7.3%)顺丰(-10.0%)申通(-10.4%)行业(-12.8%)，表明本月降价主要体系于加盟商的主动降价行为，从而守住既有市场份额或获取增量市场份额，总部整体利润可控但件量增长较快。图表图表25：快递服务品牌集中度指数快递服务品牌集中度指数 CR8 图表图表26：快递企业增速出现分化快递企业增速出现分化 资料来源：Wind，中信建投 资料来源：Wind，中信建投 757779818385872017/012017/042017/072017/102018/012018/042018/072018/102019/012019/042019/072019/102020/012020/042020/072020/102021/012021/042021/072021/102022/012022/042022/072022/102023/01024681012141618202018-012018-032018-052018-072018-092018-112019-012019-032019-052019-072019-092019-112020-012020-032020-052020-072020-092020-112021-012021-032021-052021-072021-092021-112022-012022-032022-05顺丰韵达圆通申通 16 物流物流 行业动态研究报告 请参阅最后一页的重要声明 图表图表27：顺丰、韵达、申通、圆通月度市占率变化（单位：顺丰、韵达、申通、圆通月度市占率变化（单位：%）图表图表28：快递企业单票收入企稳回升快递企业单票收入企稳回升 资料来源：Wind，中信建投 资料来源：Wind，中信建投 0%2%4%6%8 18-012018-032018-052018-072018-092018-112019-012019-032019-052019-072019-092019-112020-012020-032020-052020-072020-092020-112021-012021-032021-052021-072021-092021-112022-012022-032022-05顺丰韵达申通圆通151719212325270.00.51.01.52.02.53.03.54.0韵达圆通申通顺丰 17 物流物流 行业动态研究报告 请参阅最后一页的重要声明 图表图表29：快递行业快递行业上市公司上市公司月度经营数据（单票收入月度经营数据（单票收入：元，：元，业务收入：亿元，快递业务量业务收入：亿元，快递业务量：亿：亿票）票）2022 2 月月 2022 3 月月 2022 4 月月 2022 5 月月 2022 6 月月 2022 7 月月 2022 8 月月 2022 9 月月 2022 10 月月 2022 11 月月 2022 12 月月 2023 1 月月 2023 2 月月 2023 累计累计 顺丰 控股 单票收入 15.44 15.52 15.4 15.45 15.81 16.02 15.61 16.05 15.04 14.87 15.88 17.06 15.36 16.24 当月同比 5.46%2.24%1.70%3.55%3.00%0.41%-2.35%-8.79%-5.52%-6.00%-3.34%-2.36%-0.52%-7.03%快递业务量 6.38 8.03 7.47 9.02 10.2 9.21 9.42 9.59 9.39 10.57 10.39 9.57 8.79 18.36 当月同比-8.33%-7.91%-10.00%4.40%7.94%8.23%8.53%8.24.73%2.92.77%-3.247.77.64%业务收入 98.49 124.63 115.1 139.38 161.25 147.59 147 153.94 141.24 157.19 142.24 163.24 135.01 298.25 当月同比-6.72%-5.87%-8.50%8.13.16%8.66%5.98%-1.29%6.52%-3.24%-7.72%-5.537.08r.60%韵达 股份 单票收入 2.34 2.59 2.53 2.49 2.57 2.51 2.62 2.63 2.66 2.88 2.71 2.75 2.60 2.66 当月同比 8.33.26$.00#.27.23#.17.98.71.67!.00.38%5.13.12%6.80%快递业务量 12.16 15.82 11.32 14.85 16.14 15.86 14.88 15 15.17 14.8 16.17 9.98 13.81 23.79 当月同比 73.47%4.35.10%-7.88%-1.71%2.12%-2.43%-7.86%-11.60%-21.40%-11.93%-33.99.57%-12.79%业务收入 28.5 41.02 28.6 37.05 41.4 39.85 39.04 39.39 40.38 42.62 41.38 27.49 35.91 63.4 当月同比 88.12#.37%0.00.04%.11%.79$.81.25%8.58%-4.72%-4.12%-30.53&.00%-6.86%圆通 速递 单票收入 2.66 2.48 2.51 2.51 2.61 2.56 2.52 2.52 2.52 2.72 2.74 2.74 3.22 2.99 当月同比 2.31.11.40#.24$.58&.66.30.60.20%4.97%9.68%0.62 .95.73%快递业务量 9.67 14.17 12.46 15.54 15.72 15.06 15.2 15.64 39.95 16.28 40.95 11.21 12.29 23.5 当月同比 82.83%5.06.70%5.75%5.61%7.80.14%7.643.81%-6.708.85%-15.65.09%2.35%业务收入 25.77 35.12 31.2 39.02 41.07 38.53 38.3 39.44 15.83 44.26 16.83 30.68 39.54 70.22 当月同比 87.15.68.800.331.576.240.45.08%-56.08%-1.91%-57.44%-15.23S.43.33%申通 快递 单票收入 2.59 2.56 2.57 2.55 2.51 2.42 2.42 2.43 2.42 2.62 2.63 2.69 1.90 2.17 当月同比-4.78.78 .70#.19.40.63.64.39.90%6.51%7.67%4.05%-26.49%-16.08%快递业务量 7.23 9.87 7.91 10.03 11.88 11.95 12.26 12.26 12.51 12.08 13.51 8.06 15.59 23.65 当月同比 85.59%8.76.60%8.090.833.827.29.60.21%2.20.17%-18.505.638.14%业务收入 18.69 25.29 20.3 25.53 29.82 28.87 29.62 29.85 30.33 31.65 31.33 21.72 29.68 51.4 当月同比 76.32$.03.403.03U.09c.75h.01A.40).84%8.88.26%-15.32X.80.92%资料来源：公司公告，中信建投 服务质量方面，由于快递量增长超越当前产能配置，新产能投放仍需经历爬坡阶段，各快递企业的申诉率服务质量方面，由于快递量增长超越当前产能配置，新产能投放仍需经历爬坡阶段，各快递企业的申诉率均有所上升。均有所上升。根据国家邮政管理局披露的数据，2022 年一季度邮政服务有效申诉率为百万分之 0.04，快递服务有效申诉率为百万分之 0.51。消费者快递服务公众满意度为 80 分，同比提高 1.2 分。重点地区 72 小时准时率为 72.0%，与去年同期基本持平。3 月以来，受疫情因素影响，快递服务时效有所延长。从申诉率排名看，中通、韵达、申通申诉率低于全国平均水平，分别为 0.47、1.75、2.49；从有效申诉率排名看，中通、韵达、申通、顺丰、圆通低于全国平均，分别为 0.003、0.01、0.02、0.04、0.09。18 物流物流 行业动态研究报告 请参阅最后一页的重要声明 图表图表30：快递企业申诉率快递企业申诉率 图表图表31：快递企业有效申诉率快递企业有效申诉率 资料来源：Wind，中信建投 资料来源：Wind，中信建投 6.812.12.83.54.54.64.56.62.04.10.50.91.71.11.81.32.33.30.61.12.71.63.61.802468101214全国平均 顺丰速运 中通快递 韵达快递 圆通速递 申通快递 百世快递京东201920202021%0.330.140.020.020.050.010.020.200.180.030.00.010.010.000.010.010.220.030.00.010.040.010.020.030.000.050.100.150.200.250.300.350.40全国平均 顺丰速运 中通快递 韵达快递 圆通速递 申通快递 百世快递京东201920202021%图表图表32：2022 年年 2 月主要快递企业申诉率和有效申诉率月主要快递企业申诉率和有效申诉率 资料来源：Wind，中信建投 3.430.471.7515.132.496.393.987.704.593.830.550.000.012.620.021.370.042.851.070.090246810121416全国平均 中通快递 韵达快递 百世快递 申通快递 德邦快递 顺丰速运EMS京东圆通速递申诉率有效申诉率 19 物流物流 行业动态研究报告 请参阅最后一页的重要声明 四、投资评价和建议四、投资评价和建议 4.1 快递：快递：关注关注顺丰控股、中通快递顺丰控股、中通快递、京东物流（德邦股份）京东物流（德邦股份）快递市场供需两侧仍然都存在一定不确定性，正处高速发展向高质量发展“换挡周期”，快递市场供需两侧仍然都存在一定不确定性，正处高速发展向高质量发展“换挡周期”，2023 年业务量随年业务量随着疫情政策优化及需求小幅回暖预期仍有着疫情政策优化及需求小幅回暖预期仍有 12-13%增速，但价格博弈以及随着催生的消耗战仍要面对。增速，但价格博弈以及随着催生的消耗战仍要面对。需求侧：需求侧：实物网上社零增速与电商渗透率数据均从 30% 进入 10%的“平缓增长期”，行业高速发展红利逐渐消退，但需求结构仍在震荡变化，电商市场格局未定，内容电商及近场电商崛起，为不同快递市场玩家均提供了发展机会，并且商流与物流愈发一体化，电商领域后发挑战者开始重视快递物流的体系建设，为竞争格局形成添加了未知数；供给端：供给端：快递市场玩家的单票成本下降曲线愈发“平坦化”，网络规模效应减弱，再加之行业整体再融资能力减弱，使得成本持续优化的瓶颈难以通过粗放型投资实现，精益化运营与管理成行业共识。政策端：政策端：监管干预终究对快递行业发展能起到引导或辅助作用，未来几年更多体现在“政策最低价托底”以及“快递价格与电商产业政策的博弈”，因此价格的最终改善主要还是依赖于结构性成本优化及行业格局的最终确立。总总之，之，2021 年下半年到年下半年到 2022 年，年，疫情管控叠加价格监管政策拉长了快递行业由成长期向稳定期转变的“换挡周疫情管控叠加价格监管政策拉长了快递行业由成长期向稳定期转变的“换挡周期”，未来期”，未来 2-3 年年将将是市场格局重塑的关键时期，价格消耗战代替恶性血拼，是市场格局重塑的关键时期，价格消耗战代替恶性血拼，供给供给高质量发展加速快递服务模高质量发展加速快递服务模式迭代以及同质化服务出清。式迭代以及同质化服务出清。2023 年面对行业增速换挡过度期及价格存在短期博弈的大背景下，国际化、数字化、差异化成为快递公司控成本、“挖掘”利润的核心手段，此外转型期探索模式变革从而在中长期体系结构性的成本优势，也将是主要的投资方向。中通及顺丰在产能投入具备较好的前瞻性（目前在建工程是其他快递公司中通及顺丰在产能投入具备较好的前瞻性（目前在建工程是其他快递公司 2 倍以上），倍以上），拥有超拥有超过市场平均水平的单票盈利能力和潜在融资能力，考虑需求端两家在“效率体验”和“国际快递”具备“自动过市场平均水平的单票盈利能力和潜在融资能力，考虑需求端两家在“效率体验”和“国际快递”具备“自动化及数字化”和“航空及海外网络”两大深度护城河，因此化及数字化”和“航空及海外网络”两大深度护城河，因此中通快递及顺丰控股是中通快递及顺丰控股是建议建议中长期中长期关注关注的标的。的标的。1、因为通达系各家单票成本（不含派费）差异在 0.15-0.2 元之间，中通在单票净利上相较于其他公司有 0.1元领先空间，因此包括疫情在内的各种风险出现，成本增加对快递公司产生非对称压力，手握充足流动资金的手握充足流动资金的中通无惧，而且其具备产品差异化以及价格优势，将在中通无惧，而且其具备产品差异化以及价格优势，将在 2023 年体现稳定性和韧性年体现稳定性和韧性。中长期维度来看，随着中国制造业的转型升级和数字化进程持续推进，即意味着快递物流收入的“天花板”取决于中国制造业的转型升级及随之带来的供应链重构，面对供应链管理复杂程度，以及定制化、综合供应链模式优化的客户需求，具备数字化供应链物流服务基础的快递物流公司屈指可数，而京东系（京东系（京东物流及德邦股份）凭借其稳定的供应链物京东物流及德邦股份）凭借其稳定的供应链物流网络、行业定制化服务能力以及协同带来的降本增效，流网络、行业定制化服务能力以及协同带来的降本增效，有望有望从产业飞速成长发展中获益从产业飞速成长发展中获益。2、疫情三年使得市场对快递物流的体验和稳定性诉求超过价格，预计 2023 年上半年新的快递服务国家标准及电商平台服务标准陆续出台，电商平台及快递企业均将快递服务高质量作为核心策略；伴随需求去中心化趋势，原有快递网络模式需要重构，更精确的数字化管控与更聚焦的投入规划带来更优的成本效率，多网融合突破能够突破单一环节降本增效瓶颈。我们相信在行业发展变革期，辅以模式变革的扁平化公司将更有优势：我们相信在行业发展变革期，辅以模式变革的扁平化公司将更有优势：顺丰控股在高质量发展、网络融合提效降本及技术投入方面均具备领先优势顺丰控股在高质量发展、网络融合提效降本及技术投入方面均具备领先优势。总之，总之，2023 年快递行业已确认由成长期切换到稳定期，未来年快递行业已确认由成长期切换到稳定期，未来 2-3 年内产能供给超过需求，需求价格弹性难年内产能供给超过需求，需求价格弹性难以体现，快递进入以体现，快递进入“供给为王供给为王”时代，强大融资能力和资产持续投入才是真正提升市占率、格局优化、产生超预时代，强大融资能力和资产持续投入才是真正提升市占率、格局优化、产生超预期收益的关键！期收益的关键！20 物流物流 行业动态研究报告 请参阅最后一页的重要声明 4.2 物流：物流：风逐风逐“良田良田”，筑篱细作，静待丰收，筑篱细作，静待丰收 1、减亏超预期，即时零售减亏超预期，即时零售业态业态用户心智进一步强化用户心智进一步强化 GMV 与活跃用户数稳健增长，人均与活跃用户数稳健增长，人均 GMV 持续提升。持续提升。2022 Q3 京东到家 GMV（TTM）为 589 亿元，同比增长 58.33%，继续保持高速增长；活跃用户数为 7540 万，同比增长 32.05%。三季度人均 GMV 达到 781 元，同比增长 19.90%，环比增长 4.2%。第三季度京东小时购延续高速增长态势，GMV 同比增长超过 160%，作为小时购的重要流量入口之一，京东 App“附近”频道扩大用户展示，地理位置“附近”升级为显示城市名，同时持续打磨用户运营能力，实现曝光量增长、点击率和转化率同步提升。达达快送与京东到家营收均高速增长。达达快送与京东到家营收均高速增长。三季度公司实现营收 23.80 亿元人民币，同比增长 41.11%。其中，京东到家营收 15.44 亿元，同比增长 43.99%，增长由活跃用户数和客单价共同驱动。截至三季度末，京东到家与物美达成合作，百强连锁商超签约合作数已达 88 家，同时新签约江西甘雨亭等区域领先商超，在商超品类的领先优势得以巩固。本季度来自零售商的佣金和品牌商的广告费用达到 10.13 亿元，同比增长 60.87%，收入占比持续提升，增长主要来源于品牌主和零售商促销活动的持续增加。三季度达达快送营收 8.36 亿元，同比增加 36.07%。展望四季度，公司预计总收入将在 26.5-27.5 亿间，同比增长 30%-35%。运营效率提升，利润率显著改善。运营效率提升，利润率显著改善。二季度京东到家直接利润率（=（单均收入-配送成本-用户补贴）/客单价）转正，达到 0.4%，三季度进一步提升到 1%。第三季度公司 Non-GAAP 净亏损 2.70 亿元，Non-GAAP 净亏损率 11.35%，去年同期为 26.69%，同比减少 15.3pct，环比减少 6.0pct，减亏幅度超市场预期。2、制造产业链高端化和自主安全化助推国内供应链物流公司崛起及高质量发展、制造产业链高端化和自主安全化助推国内供应链物流公司崛起及高质量发展 伴随着国家培育不断完善产业链，疫情及全球化受阻导致国内制造产业的死穴或软肋（信息技术产业、高端装备制造产业、新材料产业和生物产业）显现，在制造产业链向中高端升级以及配套的关键领域进口替代成为 2023 年及更长期的重要国家发展战略，电子物流、化工物流、医药物流、汽车物流将是电子物流、化工物流、医药物流、汽车物流将是 2023 年供应链物流年供应链物流领域投资的核心板块领域投资的核心板块。由于目前市场中能够提供相对于产业，国内外复杂供应链管理服务能力的专业第三方物流标的较为稀缺，尤其是汽车供应链物流赛道，仍被产业内部物流垄断，屈指可数的第三方汽车物流公司成为汽车供应链物流赛道，仍被产业内部物流垄断，屈指可数的第三方汽车物流公司成为 2023 年供应链物流年供应链物流赛道中的优选细分领域赛道中的优选细分领域。但受制于供应链物流领域货物单向流动，无法内部自行循环，收益稳定性和收益率无法保障的先天问题，但受制于供应链物流领域货物单向流动，无法内部自行循环，收益稳定性和收益率无法保障的先天问题，选择毛利率较好、固定资产壁垒较高、资金周转率较稳定的上升期标的。选择毛利率较好、固定资产壁垒较高、资金周转率较稳定的上升期标的。21 物流物流 行业动态研究报告 请参阅最后一页的重要声明 五、风险分析五、风险分析 疫情再次加剧造成全球经济的大面积崩溃疫情再次加剧造成全球经济的大面积崩溃 南非新冠变异毒株“Omicron”来势凶猛，后续新冠变异病毒仍存在其他发展的可能性，或带来疫情再次严重加剧，造成全球经济的大面积崩溃，类似于 2020 年初新冠疫情爆发的情形，届时全球快递物流需求或大幅下降。电商快递需求增长低于预期电商快递需求增长低于预期 快递件量较大部分来源于电商快递，需求增长存在低于预期风险。回顾 2020 年，经历了新冠疫情短暂冲击的快递行业受益于线上渗透率的加速提升，需求出现超预期增长；同时，电商平台间竞争加剧，各类促销活动频出，带动快递行业件量增速表现优异，后续电商平台营销费用存在不及预期风险，带来电商快递需求增长低于预期。快递行业价格战愈演愈烈快递行业价格战愈演愈烈 当前各地快递价格监管政策下，快递行业价格战硝烟散去；但是快递企业产能扩张仍未完全落地，当快递行业需求不及预期，或处于淡季之中，无法满足快递行业整体产能利用率时，快递行业价格战存在愈演愈烈风险。劳务用工成本提升劳务用工成本提升超出预期超出预期 快递企业价格战期间，派费成本显著降低，导致快递一线员工收入下降。目前国内多地出台保障快递小哥收益相关政策，叠加劳务用工成本持续处于提升状态，快递企业劳务用工成本提升存在超出预期可能。22 物流物流 行业动态研究报告 请参阅最后一页的重要声明 分析师介绍分析师介绍 韩军：韩军：交通运输行业首席分析师，曾供职于上海国际航运研究中心，3 年政府规划与市场咨询经验，曾负责或参与为交通运输部、上海市交通委、港航企业等提供决策咨询服务二十余项。7 年交通运输行业证券研究经验，深入覆盖航运、港口、高铁、快递、物流板块，擅长把握周期性和政策性投资机会。2021 第十九届新财富最佳分析师交通运输行业第五名。研究助理研究助理 梁骁梁骁 18822267833 李琛李琛 13122770135 23 物流物流 行业动态研究报告 请参阅最后一页的重要声明 评级说明评级说明 投资评级标准 评级 说明 报告中投资建议涉及的评级标准为报告发布日后6个月内的相对市场表现，也即报告发布日后的 6 个月内公司股价（或行业指数）相对同期相关证券市场代表性指数的涨跌幅作为基准。A 股市场以沪深300指数作为基准；新三板市场以三板成指为基准；香港市场以恒生指数作为基准；美国市场以标普 500 指数为基准。股票评级 买入 相对涨幅 15以上 增持 相对涨幅 5 中性 相对涨幅-5%5之间 减持 相对跌幅 5 卖出 相对跌幅 15以上 行业评级 强于大市 相对涨幅 10%以上 中性 相对涨幅-10-10%之间 弱于大市 相对跌幅 10%以上 分析师声明分析师声明 本报告署名分析师在此声明：（i）以勤勉的职业态度、专业审慎的研究方法，使用合法合规的信息，独立、客观地出具本报告,结论不受任何第三方的授意或影响。（ii）本人不曾因，不因，也将不会因本报告中的具体推荐意见或观点而直接或间接收到任何形式的补偿。法律主体说明法律主体说明 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中药行业“中特估值”探究系列5：中药行业焕然新生估值体系亟待重建-230327（19页）.pdf

请务必阅读正文之后的信息披露和法律声明 Table_MainInfo 行业研究/医药与健康护理/中药 证券研究报告 行业专题报告行业专题报告 2023 年 03 月 27 日 Table_InvestInfo 投资评级 优于大市优于大市 维持维持 市场表现市场表现 Table_QuoteInfo-20.24%-14.77%-9.30%-3.83%1.64%7.10 22/32022/62022/92022/12中药海通综指 资料来源：海通证券研究所 相关研究相关研究 Table_ReportInfo 中药行业报告：乘政策东风，传统与创新联结硕果2023.01.12 Table_AuthorInfo 分析师:余文心 Tel:(0755)82780398 Email: 证书:S0850513110005 分析师:郑琴 Tel:(021)23219808 Email: 证书:S0850513080005 联系人:彭娉 Tel:(010)68067998 Email: 中药行业焕然新生，估值体系亟待重建中药行业焕然新生，估值体系亟待重建“中特估值”探究系列“中特估值”探究系列 5 Table_Summary 投资要点：投资要点：中药在医药板块具有特殊性，中药在医药板块具有特殊性，符合国家战略方向。符合国家战略方向。中药是具备中国特色的医药板块，中药国企更加具备代表性。我们认为当前政策高度重视中医药产业链发展，中药国企作为中药发展重要力量，近年在国企改革与业务与众多支持性政策扶持下，盈利能力显著提升。但我们目前诸多中药企业，特别是国企的价值没有得到充分体现，估值体系亟需重建。中药行业具备明显中国特色，引入“中特中药行业具备明显中国特色，引入“中特估值估值”有望带动行业走向合理估值。”有望带动行业走向合理估值。2023 年 3 月 3 日国资委召开会议，对国有企业对标开展世界一流企业价值创造行动进行动员部署，会议提出“以价值创造为关键抓手，扎实推动企业高质量发展，加快建成世界一流企业，为服务构建新发展格局、全面推进中国式现代化提供坚实基础和战略支撑”；2022 年 11 月 21 日，证监会主席易会满在 2022金融街论坛年会上提出“中国特色估值体系”，指出要“深入研究成熟市场估值理论的适用场景，结合中国特色做创新，把握好不同类型上市公司的估值逻辑，促进市场资源配臵功能更好发挥”。我们认为国内医药行业的中药板块具有明显中国特色，在国际上也无法找到对标市场。近年来国企改革、股权激励等系列举措出台后，中药行业不断释放增长潜力，我们认为中药临床应用价值更加明确、内部机制理顺后成长路径更加清晰、品牌价值高，引入“中特估值”的估值体系后有望引领中药行业的估值走向更加合理的水平。行业走向规范化，中药临床应用价值的臵信度不断提升。行业走向规范化，中药临床应用价值的臵信度不断提升。中药具有上千年历史底蕴，拥有众多经典名方，在多病种治疗方面有显著效果。但我们认为过去中药注射剂等相关事件的负面影响，使得市场对中药行业的长期成长性存在疑问。近年来部分临床疗效好，成分品种相对单一，被验证安全有效的中药注射剂品种被逐步取消相关限制，相关负面影响逐步消除。此外，近年来国家药监局加大对中药注册审查力度，加强对于中药质量管理，2015 年“722 事件”之后，药品临床试验与相关注册逐步更加规范，2023 年 2 月 10 日，国家发布中药注册管理专门规定，对规定实施之日起满 3 年后申请药品再注册时禁忌、不良反应、注意事项中仍为“尚不明确”的药品不予再注册。我们认为中药行业走向规范，产品的应用价值逐步得到验证，臵信度有望逐步提升。政策支持叠加企业改善，行业发展趋势明朗，成长性逐步凸显。政策支持叠加企业改善，行业发展趋势明朗，成长性逐步凸显。近年来国家出台多项政策支持中药行业发展，在审评端给予中药创新药支持，在支付端推进中药纳入医保以及进入国家基药目录，同时中药集采的降幅也较为温和。而企业自身方面，中药国企积极推进落实国企改革方案，部分中药国企实现股权变更梳理，落实混合所有制改革，董监高等管理层通过更加市场化制选举，同时多个中药企业陆续发布股权激励计划，激发员工积极性，系列高效改革方案为中药上市企业注入增长新动能，我们认为机制理顺后的中药企业成长性更好。中药品牌历史源远流长，品牌价值高，存续久期长，应当给予比普通消费品更中药品牌历史源远流长，品牌价值高，存续久期长，应当给予比普通消费品更高的估值。高的估值。中药国企品牌价值巨大，拥有历史深厚积淀。2021 年中医药品牌价值前 5 名企业中有 4 家企业均为中药国企，分别为广药集团、云南白药、华润三九与同仁堂，其中广药集团品牌力估值高达 14.6 亿美金。同时部分中药企业拥有高品牌价值产品，如片仔癀与云南白药拥有国家绝密级保密配方。我们认为中药企业品牌影响力源远流长，具有较强的生命力与持续增长潜能，在估值体系中应将这部分企业的品牌价值予以体现。风险提示风险提示：改革推进不及预期，集采降价不及预期，中药材原材料持续涨价的风险。行业研究中药行业 请务必阅读正文之后的信息披露和法律声明 2 目目 录录 1.中国特色医药子板块，引入“中特估值”有望合理重估.5 2.行业走向规范化，臵信度不断提升行业走向规范化，臵信度不断提升.7 2.1 中药注射剂监管力度加大，临床使用走向规范化中药注射剂监管力度加大，临床使用走向规范化.7 2.2“历史最严”临床试验数据审查促进中药审批流程更加规范“历史最严”临床试验数据审查促进中药审批流程更加规范.7 3.政策支持叠加企业改善，行业发展趋势明朗政策支持叠加企业改善，行业发展趋势明朗.7 3.1 自上而下：国家出台多项政策，支持中药传承创新自上而下：国家出台多项政策，支持中药传承创新.7 3.1.1 审评端：中药研发指导意见明确，创新产品不审评端：中药研发指导意见明确，创新产品不断涌现断涌现.8 3.1.2 支付端：中成药纳入医保比例攀升，集采降幅温和支付端：中成药纳入医保比例攀升，集采降幅温和.9 3.2 自上而下：国企混改引入市场化机制，加大激励调动员工积极性自上而下：国企混改引入市场化机制，加大激励调动员工积极性.11 4.中药品牌历史源远流长，品牌价值高中药品牌历史源远流长，品牌价值高.14 5.风险提示风险提示.15 nNnMXX8ZfVaYoWfWwV6MbPbRpNnNnPmPjMmMoNfQoMvN8OoOuNvPsPuNxNmNsP 行业研究中药行业 请务必阅读正文之后的信息披露和法律声明 3 图目录图目录 图 1 过去十年 SW 消费指数与 SW 中药指数市盈率变化情况（倍）.5 图 2 中药板块国企利润占比较高.6 图 3 中药国企 PE 估值显著偏低.6 图 4 2017-2022 年中药新药获批数量情况（个）.9 图 5 2017-2020 年医保谈判药品类别分布格局.10 图 6 2018-2021 年部分中药企业研发费用（亿元）.11 图 7 2018-2021 年部分中药企业研发费用占营业收入比重.11 图 8 2021 年中医药药品牌力价值排行榜前 5 名.14 行业研究中药行业 请务必阅读正文之后的信息披露和法律声明 4 表目录表目录 表 1 中药上市公司市值 TOP20.6 表 2 近年中医药行业发展支持政策.8 表 3 2022 年获批中药创新药.9 表 4 2021 年以来中成药集采试点情况.11 表 5 中药部分国企混改及股权激励落地时间表.12 表 6 部分中药企业股权激励考核指标.13 表 7 代表性中药国企市值及主营产品.14 行业研究中药行业 请务必阅读正文之后的信息披露和法律声明 5 1.中国特色医药子板块，引入“中国特色医药子板块，引入“中特估值中特估值”有望合理重”有望合理重估估 中药是中华千年瑰宝，拥有悠久的发展历史，是具有中国特色的医药子板块。中药是中华千年瑰宝，拥有悠久的发展历史，是具有中国特色的医药子板块。我们认为中药行业看重产品、渠道和品牌，具有明显的消费属性，估值体系可以与消费行业进行类比。从过去十年市盈率变化情况来看，中药指数与消费指数具有较高相关度，消费指数市盈率相较于十年前有所提升，但中药指数市盈率出现明显下滑。目前两者估值水平差异相较于十年前有较大变化，我们认为中药指数相比之下估值水平明显偏低。图图1 过去十年过去十年 SW 消费指数与消费指数与 SW 中药指数市盈率变化情况中药指数市盈率变化情况（倍）（倍）资料来源：Wind，海通证券研究所 中药企业普遍采用相对估值法，国内中药上市公司市值前五名均为国有企业，排名中药企业普遍采用相对估值法，国内中药上市公司市值前五名均为国有企业，排名前前 20 名中有名中有 12 家为中药国企。家为中药国企。国有企业的利润在中药板块中占比超过 50%，占据了重要战略地位，但与中药民营企业相比 PE 水平明显偏低。近年来国企改革、股权激励等系列举措出台后，中药行业不断释放增长潜力，我们认为中药临床应用价值更加明确、内部机制理顺后成长路径更加清晰、品牌价值高，引入“中特估值”的估值体系后有望引领中药行业的估值走向更加合理的水平。行业研究中药行业 请务必阅读正文之后的信息披露和法律声明 6 表表 1 中药上市公司市值中药上市公司市值 TOP20 排序排序 证券代码证券代码 证券简称证券简称 总市值（亿元）总市值（亿元）2023.03.17 收盘价收盘价 是否国企是否国企 1 600436.SH 片仔癀 1716 是 2 000538.SZ 云南白药 971 是 3 600085.SH 同仁堂 698 是 4 000999.SZ 华润三九 569 是 5 600332.SH 白云山 515 是 6 002603.SZ 以岭药业 488 否 7 000423.SZ 东阿阿胶 296 是 8 600518.SH ST 康美 290 否 9 600566.SH 济川药业 280 否 10 600329.SH 达仁堂 227 是 11 600535.SH 天士力 223 否 12 603858.SH 步长制药 220 否 13 600129.SH 太极集团 211 是 14 300026.SZ 红日药业 195 是 15 000623.SZ 吉林敖东 181 否 16 600771.SH 广誉远 178 是 17 002317.SZ 众生药业 171 否 18 600557.SH 康缘药业 171 否 19 600422.SH 昆药集团 161 是 20 600572.SH 康恩贝 153 是 资料来源：Wind，海通证券研究所 图图2 中药板块国企利润占比较高中药板块国企利润占比较高 0 0Pp0%数量总市值22Q3累计归母净利润国有企业民营及其他企业 资料来源：Wind，海通证券研究所 图图3 中药国企中药国企 PE 估值显著偏低估值显著偏低 3.0 3.1 3.2 3.3 3.4 3.5 3.6 3.7 3.8 3.9 4.0 051015202530国有企业民营及其他企业总计PE（TTM，倍，左轴）PB（LF，倍，右轴）资料来源：Wind，海通证券研究所 行业研究中药行业 请务必阅读正文之后的信息披露和法律声明 7 2.行业走向规范化，臵信度不断提升行业走向规范化，臵信度不断提升 2.1 中药注射剂监管力度加大，临床使用走向规范化中药注射剂监管力度加大，临床使用走向规范化 中药注射剂由于安全性问题曾在临床使用中造成严重不良后果。中药注射剂由于安全性问题曾在临床使用中造成严重不良后果。中国第一款中药注射剂柴胡注射液诞生于自上世纪 40 年代，此后中药注射剂的发展历经波折。根据时代财经百家号，2006 年出现使用鱼腥草注射液致死事件，当年 6 月，国家药品不良反应监测中心共接到鱼腥草注射液不良反应报告 5488 例，严重药品不良反应 258 例，死亡44 人，鱼腥草注射液当即停售。此后刺五加注射液、茵栀黄注射液、生脉注射液、红花注射剂、喜炎平注射液也都因为一系列使用安全问题引发过风波。近年国家开始不断加强对于中药注射液的监管。近年国家开始不断加强对于中药注射液的监管。2017 年 10 月，国家关于深化审评审批制度改革鼓励药品医疗器械创新的意见中要求严格药品注射剂审评审批，开展药品注射剂再评价，一些知名大品种的销量出现明显萎缩。据界面新闻百家号援引中康CMH 的数据显示，在 2017 年-2020 年之间，参麦注射液的销售量由 4500 万盒下降至2500 万盒；柴胡注射液的销售量由 183 万盒下降至 81 万盒；生脉注射液由 1200 万盒下降至 507 万盒；喜炎平注射液由 7000 万盒下降至 3300 万盒；注射用血栓通（冻干）由 1.32 亿盒下降至 6500 万盒。使用规范化加速中药注射剂负面影响出清。使用规范化加速中药注射剂负面影响出清。根据界面新闻百家号，2017 版医保目录开始对中药注射剂严格限制使用规范，26 个中药注射剂品种限二级以上医院使用，部分附加病症限制。2019 版医保目录中，继续针对中药注射剂做调整，剔除了部分品种，如生脉注射液、三七皂苷注射制剂、银杏叶注射制剂等，扩大受限品种至 33 个。2021版医保目录中，受限品种继续增加。我们认为中药注射剂因为历史原因，在临床试验等注册审批环节存在不完善之处，导致产品安全性监管出现问题，由此对整个中药行业声誉以及产品可靠性造成负面影响。从 2017 年之后，针对中药注射剂审批、使用规范等系列严格政策的出台保证了中药产品使用的安全性，根据步长制药 2021 年年度报告，步长制药大单品丹红液在进入 2021 年医保目录后，二级及以上医院使用限制被解除。我们认为随着临床注册监管力度加大，在临床应用价值高的注射剂品类将逐步被取消相关限制。2.2“历史最严”临床试验数据审查促进中药审批流程更加规范“历史最严”临床试验数据审查促进中药审批流程更加规范 2023 年 2 月 10 日国家药监局发布中药注册管理专门规定，对中药说明书修改进行了明确规定。其中规定中药说明书禁忌、不良反应、注意事项中任何一项在本规定施行之日起满 3 年后申请药品再注册时仍为“尚不明确”的，依法不予再注册。我们认为该规定对中药再注册提出更高要求，加速了行业的优胜劣汰。同时该管理规定对于中药注册分类、上市审批以及中药创新药上市等方面进行了更加详细规范的规定，将有效促进中药行业良性稳健发展。3.政策支持叠加企业改善政策支持叠加企业改善，行业发展趋势明朗，行业发展趋势明朗 3.1 自上而下：国家出台多项政策，支持中药传承创新自上而下：国家出台多项政策，支持中药传承创新 党的十八大以来，习近平总书记高度重视中医药工作，作出一系列重要指示批示，为新时代中医药发展指明了前进方向、提供了根本遵循。2019 年 10 月，国务院发布中医药传承创新顶层设计文件 关于促进中医药传承创新发展的意见，为新时代中医药事业传承创新发展指明了方向。2021 年以来，中医药政策落地迎来爆发期，国家对中医药支持的政策已由顶层设计逐步过渡到落地执行阶段，具有较强的连贯性。我们认为，国家促进中医药领域发展的相关政策不断落地，中医药的重要性不断提升，在中西医并重的方针下，优质中药仍有广阔的发展空间。行业研究中药行业 请务必阅读正文之后的信息披露和法律声明 8 表表 2 近年近年中医药中医药行业发展支持政策行业发展支持政策 发布时间发布时间 发布机构发布机构 政策名称政策名称 政策内容政策内容 2019 年 10 月 国务院 关于促进中医药传承创新发展的意见 健全中医药服务体系，大力推动中药质量提升和产业高质量发展，加强中医药人才队伍建设，促进中医药传承与开放创新发展，改革完善中医药管理体制机制 2020 年 12 月 国家药监局 关于促进中药传承创新发展的实施意见 结合药品监管工作实际，全面落实“四个最严”的要求，从深化改革、传承精华、坚守底线、创新发展四个方面，促进中医药创新发展。2021 年 1 月 国务院办公厅 关于加快中医药特色发展的若干政策措施 从人才、产业、资金、发展环境等多个方面提出 28 条举措，指出，要遵循中医药发展规律，认真总结中医药防治新冠肺炎经验做法，破解存在的问题，更好发挥中医药特色和比较优势，推动中医药和西医药相互补充、协调发展。2021 年 6 月 国家卫生健康委、国家中医药局、中央军委后勤保障部卫生局 关于进一步加强综合医院中医药工作推动中西医协同发展的意见 综合医院是提供中医药服务的重要平台，是中医药传承创新的重要阵地，加强综合医院中医药工作对促进中西医协同发展具有重要意义。2021 年 12 月 国家中医药管理局和国家医保局 关于医保支持中医药传承创新发展的指导意见 要求完善适合中医药特点的支付政策。2022 年 3 月 国务院办公厅“十四五”中医药发展规划 制定“十四五”时期中医药发展目标任务和重点措施。规划的发展目标明确，到 2025 年，中医药健康服务能力明显增强，中医药高质量发展政策和体系进一步完善，中医药振兴发展取得积极成效，在健康中国建设中的独特优势得到充分发挥。资料来源：中国政府网，国家医疗保障局网站，新华社，海通证券研究所 3.1.1 审评端：中药研发指导意见明确，创新产品不断涌现审评端：中药研发指导意见明确，创新产品不断涌现“三结合”审评证据构建完善中药创新审批体系。“三结合”审评证据构建完善中药创新审批体系。2020 年 6 月 2 日，习近平总书记在专家学者座谈会上强调要改革完善中药审评审批机制，促进中药新药研发和产业发展。2020 年 9 月，国家药监局发布中药注册分类及申报资料要求，将中药注册分类化繁为简，并将中药创新药单列，拓宽了改良型新药范畴，鼓励中药二次开发。新注册分类充分体现了中药的研发规律及特色，淡化原注册分类管理中“有效成份”和“有效部位”含量要求，不再仅以物质基础作为划分注册类别的依据，而是支持基于中医药理论和中医临床实践经验评价中药的有效性。2021 年 2 月，国务院印发的关于加快中医药特色发展的若干政策措施通过调整中药注册分类，开辟具有中医药特色的注册申报路径，构建“三结合”的审评证据体系等创新举措，在保持中药传统优势的基础上，进一步加大以临床价值为导向的中药创新研制力度，激发创新要素向传统中医药领域聚集，我们认为这为中药产业优化结构、转换动能注入新的活力。审批制度改革初显成效，审批制度改革初显成效，2021 年中药新药获批创新高。年中药新药获批创新高。近年来，国家药监局在中药创新药的注册分类及申报、审批流程等方面就已经给予了政策支持。包括对具有人用经验的中药复方制剂适当减免药效学试验；中药创新药处方来源于经典名方或国医大师、名老中医等具有丰富临床经验的中医临床专家经验方，且提取工艺仅为水提的，可简化工艺研究，豁免非临床有效性研究等。根据米内网数据显示，2021 年国家药监局累计批准 12 款中药新药上市，数量创近 5 年新高，其中 1.1 类新药有 7 个，包括康缘药业的银翘清热片、一力制药的虎贞清风胶囊、方盛制药的玄七健骨片、凤凰制药的芪蛭益肾胶囊、天士力的坤心宁颗粒、以岭药业的苏夏解郁除烦胶囊、健民集团的七蕊胃舒胶囊。行业研究中药行业 请务必阅读正文之后的信息披露和法律声明 9 图图4 2017-2022 年中药年中药新药获批数量情况（个）新药获批数量情况（个）资料来源：赛柏蓝微信公众号援引米内网，海通证券研究所 2022 年中药新药再有突破，经典名方实现破冰。年中药新药再有突破，经典名方实现破冰。2022 年共有 7 款中药创新药获批，其中 5 款为 1 类创新药，分别是参葛补肾胶囊（1.1 类）、芪胶调经颗粒（1.1 类）、淫羊藿素软胶囊（1.2 类）、广金钱草总黄酮胶囊（1.2 类）、黄蜀葵花总黄酮口腔贴片（1.2类）。此外，2022 年中药经典名方有 2 个品种批准上市，分别为苓桂术甘颗粒与散寒化湿颗粒，其中苓桂术甘颗粒为首个按古代经典名方目录管理的中药复方制剂，实现中药3.1 类新药“零的突破”。表表 3 2022 年获批中药创新药年获批中药创新药 药品名称药品名称 企业名称企业名称 注册分类注册分类 批准文号批准文号 功能主治功能主治 参葛补肾胶囊（太子神悦胶囊）参葛补肾胶囊（太子神悦胶囊）华春药业 1.1 国药准字Z20220008 用于治疗气阴不足、心脾两虚证的轻、中度抑郁症 芪胶调经颗粒芪胶调经颗粒 安邦制药 1.1 国药准字Z20220007 益气补血、止血调经 淫羊藿素（阿可拉定）软胶囊淫羊藿素（阿可拉定）软胶囊 珅诺基 1.2 国药准字Z20220002 适用于不适合或患者拒绝接受标准治疗、且既往未接受过全身系统性治疗的、不可切除的肝细胞癌 广金钱草总黄酮胶囊广金钱草总黄酮胶囊 光谷人福 1.2 国药准字Z20220003 清热祛湿、利尿排石 黄蜀葵花总黄酮口腔贴片黄蜀葵花总黄酮口腔贴片 康恩贝 1.2 国药准字 Z20220006 治疗口腔溃疡 苓桂术甘颗粒苓桂术甘颗粒 康缘药业 3.1 国药准字C20220002 温阳化饮，健脾利湿 散寒化湿颗粒散寒化湿颗粒 康缘药业 3.2 国药准字C20220001 用于寒湿郁肺所致疫病 资料来源：赛柏蓝微信公众号援引米内网，药智网微信公众号，安邦之爱百家号，新京报百家号，中国非处方药物协会，海通证券研究所 3.1.2 支付端：中成药纳入医保比例攀升，集采降幅温和支付端：中成药纳入医保比例攀升，集采降幅温和 中药医保入围与中标率逐年提升。中药医保入围与中标率逐年提升。2021 年 12 月 31 日，国家医保局、中医药管理局发布关于医保支持中医药传承创新发展的指导意见，将符合条件的中医医药机构纳入医保定点，提高中药和中医医疗服务项目纳入医保支付范围，并指出中医医疗机构可暂不实行 DRG 付费，在医保终端覆盖范围、医疗服务、产品价格和支付方式上都给予了较大的支持。回顾 2017-2020 年，医保谈判药品中中药占比从 10%提升至 31%，中药纳入医保的比例逐年攀升，2021 年中药医保入围后的中标率（84%）高于西药入围后的中标率（53%）。行业研究中药行业 请务必阅读正文之后的信息披露和法律声明 10 图图5 2017-2020 年医保谈判药品类别分布格局年医保谈判药品类别分布格局 资料来源：医药魔方，华经产业研究院，华经情报网百家号，海通证券研究所 中成药集采降幅温和，独家品种普遍降幅更低。中成药集采降幅温和，独家品种普遍降幅更低。根据健康界数据显示，2018 年以来的国家七批药物集采历史数据显示，药品平均降幅在 48%-59%之间，而 2021 年以来湖北、广东、北京与山东实施省际中成药集采或联采，平均价格降幅在 23%-44%，中药集采价格平均降幅相对较低。独家品种普遍比非独家品种降幅更低，我们认为中药原材料价格会传导影响中药材农业脱贫，独家品种众多难以分组，适应症多难以划分，诸多因素使得中药集采未来不会对行业产生类似于化药、生物制剂类似的较大降幅震动。31i%中药西药2019202026t%中药西药10%中药西药2017、2018 行业研究中药行业 请务必阅读正文之后的信息披露和法律声明 11 表表 4 2021 年以来中成药集采试点情况年以来中成药集采试点情况 地区地区 中药集采试点情况汇总中药集采试点情况汇总 湖北湖北 2021 年下半年，按照国家医保局工作安排，湖北曾牵头 19 省份组成省际联盟开展中成药集中带量采购工作，开辟了药品集采新领域，有 157 家企业的 182 个产品参与竞价，采购规模近 100 亿元，最终 97 家企业、111 个产品中选，中选率达 62%，拟中选价格平均降幅 42.27%，最大降幅 82.63%。根据 19 省联盟年度需求量测算，预计每年可节约药品费用超过 26 亿元。广东广东 2021 年 12 月底，广东等 6 省开展中成药集采，涉及 132 种中成药，包括了 32 个中药独家品种，共涉及企业产品品规 257 个，药价降幅达到 40%以上的 64 个。从最小制剂单位来看，有 122 个拟中选/备选品种价格不足 1 元，本次中成药集采中选品种平均降幅 32.5%，最高降幅 90.9%，独家产品拟中标平均降幅为 21.8%。北京北京 2022 年 7 月，北京市医疗保障局日前发布关于开展 2022 年北京市中成药带量采购有关工作的通知，宣布启动本轮中成药带量采购，公布 84 个采购药品目录。本轮中成药带量采购药品主要分为两类：一类是包括银杏叶、双黄连等市场竞争较为充分的64 个药品，以上 64 个药品被纳入带量联动药品范围；另一类是包括复方丹参等市场竞争相对不足的 20 个药品，以上 20 个药品则被纳入到带量谈判药品范围。平均降价幅度约为 23%左右，除银杏胶囊等竞争激烈品种，总体降价幅度相对温和，尤其是独家品种降价幅度小，例如连花清瘟颗粒 10 包规格中标价 23.3 元（降价 1%），15 包中标价 34.95 元（降价 1%）。山东山东 2022 年 11 月，山东省第三批（中成药专项）集中带量采购 67 个药品划分为 15 个品种组竞争，全部产生拟中选结果，平均降价 44.31%，最高降幅 87.97%，本次中成药集中带量采购周期为 2 年。资料来源：健康界，广东省药品交易中心，北京医保局，赛柏蓝，海通证券研究所 3.2 自上而下：国企混改引入市场化机制，加大激励调动员工积极性自上而下：国企混改引入市场化机制，加大激励调动员工积极性 政策引领加强中医药人才培育，中药企业整体研发投入提升。政策引领加强中医药人才培育，中药企业整体研发投入提升。2022 年 10 月，国家中医药管理局发布“十四五”中医药人才发展规划，要求完善人才培育体系，加强中医药高层次专业人才队伍建设，促进中药传承创新与人才供给。2022 年前三季度，中药企业研发投入合计 64.13 亿元，相较于 2021 年同期的 56.44 亿元增长了 13.63%，其中52 家中药企业研发投入实现正增长，占比为 69.33%。2018 至 2021 年，大部分中药企业的研发投入呈增长态势。图图6 2018-2021 年部分中药企业研发费用（亿元）年部分中药企业研发费用（亿元）0%1%2%3%4%5%6%7%8%9 18201920202021白云山东阿阿胶达仁堂片仔癀同仁堂云南白药济川药业华润三九以岭药业天士力 资料来源：Wind，海通证券研究所 图图7 2018-2021 年部分中药企业研发费用占营业收入比重年部分中药企业研发费用占营业收入比重 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 2018201920202021白云山东阿阿胶达仁堂片仔癀同仁堂云南白药济川药业华润三九以岭药业天士力 资料来源:Wind，海通证券研究所 中药国企混改加速落地，传统老店焕发新生机。中药国企混改加速落地，传统老店焕发新生机。2020 年 6 月 30 日，习近平总书记主持召开中央深改委第十四次会议，审议通过了国企改革三年行动方案（2020-2022年），方案提出要完善国资监管体制，深化混合所有制改革；健全市场化经营机制，提高国企核心竞争力。广誉远、太极集团、达仁堂实际控制人发生变更，部分中药国企实现股权变更梳理，落实混合所有制改革，董监高等管理层通过更加市场化制选举。2023年政府工作报告指出，要“深化国资国企改革，提高国企核心竞争力”。2023 年 1 月，国资委将央企考核体系的经营指标由“两利四率”调整为“一利五率”，进一步加强对国企盈利能力和创现能力的考核。我们认为随着国企改革的不断深化，中药企业执行力提升，盈利能力有望得到改善。行业研究中药行业 请务必阅读正文之后的信息披露和法律声明 12 表表 5 中药部分国企混中药部分国企混改及股权激励落地时间表改及股权激励落地时间表 企业名称企业名称 混改时间及过程混改时间及过程 云南白药云南白药 2018 年，国企混改落地，云南省国资委与新华都成为并列第一大股东；2019 年 10 月，公布第一期员工持股计划；2020 年 6 月，公布首批股权激励方案；2021 年 3 月，公布员工持股计划。太极集团太极集团 2020 年 10 月，发布增资协议，引入中国医药有限公司，国务院国资委为实际控制人；2021 年 5 月，完成董监高换届。达仁堂（原中新药业）达仁堂（原中新药业）2021 年 3 月，公司股权变化，天津国资委不再为公司实控人，津沪深公司间接控股；2022 年 5 月，正式更名为津药达仁堂。广誉远广誉远 2021 年 6 月，晋创投资转为控股股东，实际控制人由郭家学变更为山西省国资委。同仁堂同仁堂 2021 年 6 月，同仁堂集团召开国企改革三年行动推进会，成立改革工作领导小组、制定了行动方案和任务清单，完善体制机制；2021 年 12 月，新任董事长上任。华润三九华润三九 2021 年 12 月，公布限制性股票激励计划。江中药业江中药业 2021 年 6 月，公布限制性股票激励计划。资料来源：云南白药股东权益变动公告，云南白药员工持股计划，太极集团增资协议公告，太极集团管理层变更公告，中新药业关于变更证券简称公告，广誉远实控人变更公告，同仁堂官网，中国北京同仁堂官微，华润三九限制性股票激励计划，江中药业限制性股票激励计划，海通证券研究所 陆续推出股权激励，未来业绩增长指引清晰。陆续推出股权激励，未来业绩增长指引清晰。近年来多个中药企业陆续推出股权激励方案，给出未来几年更加清晰的业绩增长指引。其中，部分中药企业还会结合自身的发展情况和业务特点制定额外的激励考核指标，例如济川药业设臵了 BD 引进产品的指标，康缘药业设臵了非注射剂产品营业收入增长的指标。我们认为股权激励方案出台将有效激发上市公司团队的能动性，有利于公司朝着既定目标快速前行。行业研究中药行业 请务必阅读正文之后的信息披露和法律声明 13 表表 6 部分中药部分中药企业股权激励考核指标企业股权激励考核指标 企业名称企业名称 激励考核指标激励考核指标 华润三九华润三九 1.以 2020 年业绩为基数，2022-2024 每年归母扣非净利 CAGR 不低于 10%，且不低于同行业平均或对标企业 75 分位水平；2.2022-2024 年归母扣费净资产收益率分别不低于 10.15%/10.16%/10.17%，且不低于对标企业 75 分位水平；3.2022-2024 总资产周转率分别不低于 0.69/0.70/0.72。江中药业江中药业 1.2022-2024 年投入资本回报率分别不低于 12.74%/12.75%/12.76%，且不低于对标企业 75 分为水平或同行业平均值；2.较 2020 年，2022-2024 年归母净利润 CAGR 不低于 6%，且不低于对标企业 75 分位水平或同行业平均值；3.2022-2024 年研发投入强度分别不低于 2.96%/2.98%/3.00%。羚锐制药羚锐制药 以 2020 年净利润为基数，2021 年-2023 年净利润增长率分别不低于 20%/44%/65.6%。达仁堂达仁堂 1.以 2018 年业绩为基数，2020-2022 年每股收益分别不低于 0.8/0.86/0.92 元且不低于同行业对标企业 75 分位水平；2.2020-2022 年净利润增长率分别不低于 9.7%/17.9%/27.1%，且不低于同行业对标企业 75 分位水平；3.2020-2022 年主营业务收入占营业收入的比例不低于 92%。奇正藏药奇正藏药 分别以 2020/2021 年营业收入为基数，2021/2022 年营业收入增长率低于 15%，当期限售股份不予解锁；大于等于 15%，解锁比例 100%。仁和药业仁和药业 2021/2022 年净利润较 2020 年增长分别不低于 10%/20%（包含）。桂林三金桂林三金 1.2021 年主营业务收入不低于 173970 万元；2.2022 年主营业务收入不低于 192495 万元；或前两个解锁期累计主营业务收入达到 366465 万元，视作两期全部完成；3.2023 年主营收入不低于 212472 万元，或任意解锁期未完成，累计主营业务收入达到 578937 万元，视作全部完成；济川药业济川药业 1.公司 2023 年度净利润不低于 22 亿元；且 BD 引进产品不少于 4 个；2.公司 2024 年度净利润不低于 25 亿元；且 BD 引进产品不少于 4 个。康缘药业康缘药业 1.（1）以公司 2021 年营业收入为基数，2022 年营业收入增长率不低于 22%，或以公司 2021 年净利润为基数，2022 年净利润增长率不低于 24%；（2）以公司 2021 年非注射剂产品营业收入为基数，2022 年非注射剂产品营业收入增长率不低于 22%；2.（1）以公司 2022 年营业收入为基数，2023 年营业收入增长率不低于 20%，或以公司 2022 年净利润为基数，2023 年净利润增长率不低于 22%；（2）以公司 2022 年非注射剂产品营业收入为基数，2023 年非注射剂产品营业收入增长率不低于 23%；3.（1）以公司 2023 年营业收入为基数，2024 年营业收入增长率不低于 18%，或以公司 2023 年净利润为基数，2024 年净利润增长率不低于 20%；（2）以公司 2023 年非注射剂产品营业收入为基数，2024 年非注射剂产品营业收入增长率不低于 22%。新天药业新天药业 1.2021 年以 2020 年营业收入为 基数，2021 年营业收 入增长 27%；2.2022 年以 2020 年营业收入为 基数，2022 年营业收 入增长 61%；或以 2021 年营业收入为 基数，2022 年营业收 入增长 27%；3.2023 年以 2020 年营业收入为 基数，2023 年营业收 入增长 100%；或以 2022 年营业收入为 基数，2023 年营业收入增长 27%。资料来源：华润三九、江中药业、羚锐药业、达仁堂、奇正藏药、仁和药业、桂林三金、济川药业、康缘药业、新天药业股票激励计划及草案，海通证券研究所 行业研究中药行业 请务必阅读正文之后的信息披露和法律声明 14 4.中药品牌历史源远流长，品牌价值高中药品牌历史源远流长，品牌价值高 中药企业价值被明显低估，估值体系有待改善。中药企业价值被明显低估，估值体系有待改善。目前大部分中药上市国企相对估值指标市盈率水平较低，但相关企业均具备较高的盈利水平，同时中药国企品牌价值巨大，拥有历史深厚积淀。品牌为公司经营持续注入增长动能，未来拥有较大增长潜力。例如同仁堂起源于 1669 年，至今已有近 350 余年历史。2021 年中医药品牌价值前 5 名企业中有 4 家企业均为中药国企，分别为广药集团、云南白药、华润三九与同仁堂。其中广药集团品牌价值高达 14.6 亿美元位居第一。同时部分中药企业拥有高品牌价值产品，如片仔癀与云南白药拥有国家绝密级保密配方。我们认为中药企业品牌影响力源远流长，具有较强的生命力与持续增长潜能，在估值体系中应将这部分企业的品牌价值予以体现。图图8 2021 年中医药药品牌力价值排行榜前年中医药药品牌力价值排行榜前 5 名名 资料来源：广药白云山公司官方微信公众号，海通证券研究所 表表 7 代表性中药国企市值及主营产品代表性中药国企市值及主营产品 成立时间成立时间 企业名称企业名称 总市值总市值(亿元亿元)2023.03.17收盘价收盘价 主营产品主营产品 1956 片仔癀片仔癀 1716.44 片仔癀系列及茵胆平肝胶囊、心舒宝片、增乳膏、安宫牛黄丸等 1971 云南白药云南白药 971.38 云南白药系列及普药、牙膏产品 1669 同仁堂同仁堂 697.53 安宫牛黄丸、同仁牛黄清心丸、同仁大活络丸等 1985 华润三九华润三九 569.48 999 感冒灵、三九胃泰、999 皮炎平（红）、澳诺钙、易善复等 1973 白云山白云山 539.11 消渴丸、滋肾育胎丸、小柴胡颗粒等中药，枸橼酸西地那非片、头孢克肟系列、阿莫西林系列等西药 1952 东阿阿胶东阿阿胶 296.47 阿胶系列（阿胶浆、阿胶糕、阿胶粉）、燕真卿真好燕窝 1914 达仁堂达仁堂 279.60 速效救心丸、京万红软膏、舒脑欣滴丸、紫龙金片、清肺消炎丸、藿香正气软胶囊、通脉养心丸、胃肠安丸、清咽滴丸、海马补肾丸、安宫牛黄丸 1972 太极集团太极集团 211.06 藿香正气口服液、小金片、急支糖浆、复方板蓝根颗粒、通天口服液等中药，注射用头孢唑肟钠、洛芬待因缓释、盐酸吗啡缓释片等西药 1996 红日药业红日药业 195.27 血必净注射液、清肺散结丸、“全成分”中药配方颗粒等中药，盐酸法舒地尔注射液、低分子量肝素钙注射液等西药 1541 广誉远广誉远 178.17 龟龄集、定坤丹大蜜丸、定坤丹水蜜丸、定坤丹口服液、安宫牛黄丸、牛黄清心丸等 1951 昆药集团昆药集团 160.57 参苓健脾胃颗粒、舒肝颗粒、香砂平胃颗粒等中药，草乌甲素软胶囊、玻璃酸钠注射液、阿法骨化醇软胶囊等西药 资料来源：Wind，各公司 2021 年年报，各公司官网，百度百科，海通证券研究所 行业研究中药行业 请务必阅读正文之后的信息披露和法律声明 15 5.风险提示风险提示 改革推进不及预期，集采降价不及预期，中药材原材料持续涨价的风险。行业研究中药行业 请务必阅读正文之后的信息披露和法律声明 16 信息披露信息披露 分析师声明分析师声明 余文心 医药行业 郑琴 医药行业 本人具有中国证券业协会授予的证券投资咨询执业资格，以勤勉的职业态度，独立、客观地出具本报告。本报告所采用的数据和信息均来自市场公开信息，本人不保证该等信息的准确性或完整性。分析逻辑基于作者的职业理解，清晰准确地反映了作者的研究观点，结论不受任何第三方的授意或影响，特此声明。分析师负责的股票研究范围分析师负责的股票研究范围 重点研究上市公司：华润三九,人福医药,凯莱英,纳微科技,药康生物,片仔癀,华兰生物,沃森生物,同仁堂,微芯生物,万泰生物,康泰生物,康龙化成,迈瑞医疗,贝达药业,百普赛斯,海泰新光,诺唯赞,惠泰医疗,诺禾致源,普瑞眼科,以岭药业,博腾股份,鱼跃医疗,科伦药业,泰格医药,万孚生物,康华生物,智飞生物,老百姓 投资投资评级评级说明说明 1.投资评级的比较和评级标准：投资评级的比较和评级标准：以报告发布后的 6 个月内的市场表现为比较标准，报告发布日后 6 个月内的公司股价（或行业指数）的涨跌幅相对同期市场基准指数的涨跌幅；2.市场基准指数的比较标准：市场基准指数的比较标准：A 股市场以海通综指为基准；香港市场以恒生指数为基准；美国市场以标普 500 或纳斯达克综合指数为基准。类类 别别 评评 级级 说说 明明 股票投资评股票投资评级级 优于大市 预期个股相对基准指数涨幅在 10%以上；中性 预期个股相对基准指数涨幅介于-10%与 10%之间；弱于大市 预期个股相对基准指数涨幅低于-10%及以下；无评级 对于个股未来 6 个月市场表现与基准指数相比无明确观点。行业投资评行业投资评级级 优于大市 预期行业整体回报高于基准指数整体水平 10%以上；中性 预期行业整体回报介于基准指数整体水平-10%与 10%之间；弱于大市 预期行业整体回报低于基准指数整体水平-10%以下。法律声明法律声明 。本公司不会因接收人收到本报告而视其为客户。在任何情况下，本报告中的信息或所表述的意见并不构成对任何人的投资建议。在任何情况下，本公司不对任何人因使用本报告中的任何内容所引致的任何损失负任何责任。本报告所载的资料、意见及推测仅反映本公司于发布本报告当日的判断，本报告所指的证券或投资标的的价格、价值及投资收入可能会波动。在不同时期，本公司可发出与本报告所载资料、意见及推测不一致的报告。市场有风险，投资需谨慎。本报告所载的信息、材料及结论只提供特定客户作参考，不构成投资建议，也没有考虑到个别客户特殊的投资目标、财务状况或需要。客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况。在法律许可的情况下，海通证券及其所属关联机构可能会持有报告中提到的公司所发行的证券并进行交易，还可能为这些公司提供投资银行服务或其他服务。本报告仅向特定客户传送，未经海通证券研究所书面授权，本研究报告的任何部分均不得以任何方式制作任何形式的拷贝、复印件或复制品，或再次分发给任何其他人，或以任何侵犯本公司版权的其他方式使用。所有本报告中使用的商标、服务标记及标记均为本公司的商标、服务标记及标记。如欲引用或转载本文内容，务必联络海通证券研究所并获得许可，并需注明出处为海通证券研究所，且不得对本文进行有悖原意的引用和删改。根据中国证监会核发的经营证券业务许可，海通证券股份有限公司的经营范围包括证券投资咨询业务。行业研究中药行业 请务必阅读正文之后的信息披露和法律声明 17 Table_PeopleInfo 海通证券股份有限公司研究所海通证券股份有限公司研究所 路 颖 所长(021)23219403 邓 勇 副所长(021)23219404 荀玉根 副所长(021)23219658 涂力磊 所长助理(021)23219747 余文心 所长助理(0755)82780398 宏观经济研究团队 梁中华(021)23219820 应镓娴(021)23219394 李 俊(021)23154149 联系人 李林芷(021)23219674 王宇晴 侯 欢(021)23154658 金融工程研究团队 冯佳睿(021)23219732 郑雅斌(021)23219395 罗 蕾(021)23219984 余浩淼(021)23219883 袁林青(021)23212230 黄雨薇(021)23154387 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国轩高科-公司深度报告：锂电池行业先行者携手大众焕发新生机-230329（30页）.pdf

电力设备电力设备/电池电池 请务必参阅正文后面的信息披露和法律声明 1/30 国轩高科国轩高科（002074.SZ）2023 年 03 月 29 日 投资评级：投资评级：买入买入（维持维持）日期 2023/3/28 当前股价(元)29.62 一年最高最低(元)51.00/22.67 总市值(亿元)526.90 流通市值(亿元)366.85 总股本(亿股)17.79 流通股本(亿股)12.39 近 3 个月换手率(%)77.3 股价走势图股价走势图 数据来源：聚源 客户结构持续优化，看好公司利润率持续回升公司信息更新报告-2022.5.1 锂电池行业先行者，携手大众焕发新生机锂电池行业先行者，携手大众焕发新生机 公司深度报告公司深度报告 殷晟路（分析师）殷晟路（分析师） 证书编号：S0790522080001 锂电池行业先行者、携手大众焕发新生机锂电池行业先行者、携手大众焕发新生机 公司是最早开始研发动力电池的企业之一，2017-2020 年由于补贴政策偏向刺激产品能量密度，公司坚守的磷酸铁锂产品处于下风，利润表现不佳。2020 年大众品控团队入驻，品牌背书助力公司扩展海外大客户，未来公司有望进入成本客户产品的良性循环，“做精铁锂、做强三元”的产品路线更具优势。我们预计 2022-2024 年公司归母净利分别为 2.18、16.00、28.21 亿元，EPS 为 0.12、0.90、1.59 元，当前股价对应 PE 分别为 242.0、32.9、18.7 倍，公司 2023 年 PEG 与PS 分别为 0.05、1.32，明显低于可比公司，考虑到公司在客户、产品等方面的困境反转，2024 年为大众批量供货后利润有望进一步兑现，维持“买入”评级。做精铁锂做强三元大力扩展产能，产业链一体化贯彻成本领先战略做精铁锂做强三元大力扩展产能，产业链一体化贯彻成本领先战略 公司在国内形成了合肥（经开、庐江、新站）、南京、青岛、唐山、柳州、南通、桐城、宜春十大基地布局，此外公司相继在德国规划产能供应欧洲客户加速出海进程；同时公司产业链布局全，在锂矿、正极、前驱体、负极、隔膜、铜箔等各电池材料都进行了战略布局，宜春科丰拥有 2 万吨碳酸锂冶炼产能，宜丰国轩锂业将于 2023 年上半年投产一期 2.5 万吨碳酸锂冶炼产能，2023 年公司有望形成碳酸锂 2 万吨以上产出，对应碳酸锂自供率达到 50%以上。技术突破驱动动力客户结构改善，储能布局带来新增技术突破驱动动力客户结构改善，储能布局带来新增量量 公司开发的半固态电池单体密度达 360Wh/Kg，2023 年有望装车交付加快公司向中高端客户渗透。2023 年起在国内终端需求增速下降的背景下，除大众标准电芯平台的确定性增量以外，公司还与美国大客户、印度塔塔等客户绑定受益海外电动车景气度红利。储能领域公司布局早，在发电侧和通信侧与国家电网、华为等客户合作紧密，也在积极开发 Freyr、Nextra、Moxion 等海外储能客户，充分受益于储能景气红利。风险提示：风险提示：电动车下游需求景气度不及预期风险、行业竞争加剧盈利恶化风险、公司储能客户扩展不及预期风险。财务摘要和估值指标财务摘要和估值指标 指标指标 2020A 2021A 2022E 2023E 2024E 营业收入(百万元)6,724 10,356 21,764 39,804 65,124 YOY(%)35.6 54.0 110.2 82.9 63.6 归母净利润(百万元)150 102 218 1,600 2,821 YOY(%)192.0-31.9 113.7 634.7 76.3 毛利率(%)25.2 18.6 13.9 17.8 18.3 净利率(%)2.2 0.7 1.0 4.0 4.3 ROE(%)1.3 0.4 1.1 7.6 11.9 EPS(摊薄/元)0.08 0.06 0.12 0.90 1.59 P/E(倍)358.0 525.9 246.1 33.5 19.0 P/B(倍)4.9 2.9 2.8 2.6 2.3 数据来源：聚源、开源证券研究所 -40%-20%0 22-032022-072022-112023-03国轩高科沪深300相关研究报告相关研究报告 开源证券开源证券 证券研究报告证券研究报告 公司深度报告公司深度报告 公司研究公司研究 公司深度报告公司深度报告 请务必参阅正文后面的信息披露和法律声明 2/30 目目 录录 1、国轩高科：锂电池行业先行者，携手大众焕发新生机.4 1.1、发展历程：深耕磷酸铁锂电池，业务布局不断完善.4 1.2、股权结构：大众入股驱动公司发展进入良性循环.4 1.3、财务分析：困境反转，2022 年起盈利有望持续向上.6 2、做强铁锂做精三元大力扩展产能，产业链一体化贯彻成本领先战略.8 2.1、二线电池厂商仍存在赶超的窗口期.8 2.2、公司贯彻做强铁锂做精三元战略布局.9 2.3、产业链一体化布局帮助公司成本领先.11 3、技术突破驱动动力客户结构改善，储能布局带来新增量.14 3.1、自研 JTM 技术，大众技术赋能加强质控.14 3.2、储能：从发电侧到用户侧，公司储能业务扩展提速.15 3.3、客户结构改善将驱动公司盈利逆境反转.16 3.3.1、公司前期客户基本盘以商用车及 A00 级车为主.16 3.3.2、从商用车及低端乘用车向中高端车型突破，客户结构逐步改善.18 3.4、突破新市场全面发力，增量确定性强.20 3.4.1、大众：公司率先获得标准电芯定点，带来大量确定性订单增量.20 3.4.2、三元：做强三元战略稳步推进，与大众合作开启新征程.21 3.4.3、海外：公司电池出海提速，看好印度、美国未来订单增量.22 3.4.4、小动力：抓住二轮车锂电池替代趋势，提前布局电动船市场.23 4、盈利预测与估值评级.24 4.1、核心假设.24 4.2、估值评级.25 5、风险提示.26 附：财务预测摘要.27 图表目录图表目录 图 1：国轩高科产品性能持续迭代，客户不断突破.4 图 2：大众入股前控股股东为董事长李缜.5 图 3：当前控股股东为大众中国（截止 2022 年三季报）.5 图 4：大众入股驱动公司进入发展良性循环.6 图 5：公司营收保持高速增长，利润端受原材料价格影响承压.6 图 6：公司产品售价不断下行.7 图 7：公司毛净利率下滑.7 图 8：公司经营性现金流开始回暖（亿元）.7 图 9：国内动力电池装机份额国轩高科位于前列.8 图 10：全球动力电池装机量份额国内企业不断提升.8 图 11：2021 年国轩高科装机以方形为主.9 图 12：2021 年国轩高科装机以磷酸铁锂为主.9 图 13：磷酸铁锂电池装机成为主流.9 图 14：国轩高科产业链布局完整.12 图 15：公司锂电池组销售均价具有优势（元/Wh）.12 bUbUeUcWfYbUaYfV9PcMbRtRrRmOsRjMpPpMeRsQzQ9PmNpPxNnQsNuOtOuM公司深度报告公司深度报告 请务必参阅正文后面的信息披露和法律声明 3/30 图 16：公司电池生产成本行业领先（元/Wh）.12 图 17：JTM 技术模组对各类型电芯适应性强.14 图 18：2022 年 5 月公司发布半固态电池.15 图 19：国内 A00 级乘用车销量占比开始下降.17 图 20：2021 年公司装机以乘用车为主.18 图 21：2021 年公司各客户份额趋于平衡.19 图 22：2022 年大众在欧洲电动车市占率排名第二.21 图 23：大众标准电芯打造低成本电池.21 图 24：大众推出多款电动车平台.21 图 25：公司三元电池业务稳步推进.22 图 26：印度电动乘用车目前渗透率较低.23 图 27：国内电动两轮车锂电池占比提升.24 图 28：国内电动二轮车锂电池出货量预计将快速增长.24 图 29：国内电动船舶电池需求量预计快速增长.24 表 1：公司董事会中四名董事由大众提名.5 表 2：2021 年国内车企电池呈现多极供应格局.8 表 3：公司国内十大生产基地布局，德国产线加快欧洲出海.10 表 4：公司 2022 年底电池产能接近 100GWh.10 表 5：国轩高科碳酸锂自供率行业领先.12 表 6：大众电池在固态电池及产品品控方面有丰富的技术资源.15 表 7：2022 年国轩高科在全球储能电池出货量中排名第 6.15 表 8：国轩高科储能业务布局早.16 表 9：2022 年吉利远程系列多款车入选新能源物流车畅销车型.17 表 10：公司配套多款 A00 级畅销车型（单位：万辆）.17 表 11：公司配套车型向中高端车型突破.19 表 12：公司配套多款 2022 年新能源乘用车畅销车型.19 表 13：2022 年大众多款车型在欧洲热销.20 表 14：2021 年新能源汽车推荐目录公司三元电池新增配套多款车型.22 表 15：Rivian 产能规划接近 100 万辆.23 表 16：公司营收拆分与预测.25 表 17：公司 2023 年 PEG、PS 都大幅低于可比公司.25 公司深度报告公司深度报告 请务必参阅正文后面的信息披露和法律声明 4/30 1、国轩高科：锂电池行业先行者，携手大众焕发新生机国轩高科：锂电池行业先行者，携手大众焕发新生机 1.1、发展历程：深耕磷酸铁锂电池，业务布局不断完善发展历程：深耕磷酸铁锂电池，业务布局不断完善 2006-2016 年公司深耕锂电池赛道，是磷酸铁锂电池先行者。年公司深耕锂电池赛道，是磷酸铁锂电池先行者。公司 2006 年起以磷酸铁锂材料起家，2009 年就开始电动大巴用的磷酸铁锂电池，是国内最早开始接触磷酸铁锂材料也是最早开始动力电池研发的一批企业之一。2013 年就进入了上汽、北汽等客户供应体系，是行业的先行者。2016-2020 年四面出击，客户扩容期。年四面出击，客户扩容期。在高端乘用车领域，由于补贴政策对能量密度的持续刺激，磷酸铁锂电池份额不断被压缩的背景下，公司一方面开始布局三元电池，一方面横向扩张客户，陆续进入博世、塔塔、华为、滴滴供应体系，打入储能、海外动力、电动二轮车、电动船舶市场保持营收的正增长。2020 年大众入股后产品品控提升，客户结构改善。年大众入股后产品品控提升，客户结构改善。2020 年 5 月大众中国签约入股成为公司大股东，约定国轩高科将成为大众认证供应商。之后一方面大众技术团队入驻公司扣产品细节，弥补公司在产品品控上的相对短板；另一方面在大众背书下公司客户结构明显改善，2020 年进入五菱宏光 MINI 供应体系，2021 年与美国客户及长城签订超过 200GWh 的长单上攻高端乘用车市场。2022 年公司正式获得大众三元及铁锂电池量产定点，预计将 24 年批量供应。未来公司规模效应提升，客户产品结构逐步改善，有望驱动公司盈利能力明显提升。图图1：国轩高科产品性能持续迭代，客户不断突破国轩高科产品性能持续迭代，客户不断突破 资料来源：公司官网、公司公告、开源证券研究所 1.2、股权结构：大众入股驱动公司发展进入良性循环股权结构：大众入股驱动公司发展进入良性循环 2021年底定增完成，实际控制人目前仍为李缜。年底定增完成，实际控制人目前仍为李缜。2020年5月公司发布定增预案，引入大众作为战略投资者。2021 年 12 月 15 日定增完成，大众中国成为国轩高科控股股东，4 名大众中国推荐的人员被提名和选举为公司董事，其中 2 名非独立董事，2 名独立董事。根据股东协议的约定，大众中国承诺直至 2024 年底不可撤销地放弃其持有的部分公司股份的表决权，公司的实际控制人不会发生变更，仍为李缜。公司深度报告公司深度报告 请务必参阅正文后面的信息披露和法律声明 5/30 图图2：大众入股前控股股东为董事长李缜大众入股前控股股东为董事长李缜 图图3：当前控股股东为大众中国（截止当前控股股东为大众中国（截止 2022 年三季报）年三季报）资料来源：Wind、开源证券研究所 资料来源：Wind、开源证券研究所 公司管理层汽车及电池产业经验丰富，大众入驻进一步提升管理水平。公司管理层汽车及电池产业经验丰富，大众入驻进一步提升管理水平。公司总经理李缜 2006 年成立合肥国轩开始深耕动力电池行业，多名高管均具有汽车企业、电池企业履历背景，团队涵盖材料、机械、管理等各方面人才，团队战斗力十足。2021 年底定增完成后大众入驻两名非独立董事，分别负责产品研发及品控，帮助国轩高科的产品对接整车的需求、提升品质，进一步提高了国轩高科的管理水平和产品力。表表1：公司董事会中四名董事由大众提名公司董事会中四名董事由大众提名 姓名姓名 职位职位 提名权归属提名权归属 任职日期任职日期 简介简介 李缜 董事长 李缜 2015 年 7 月 合肥国轩集团董事长、总经理 Steven Cai 董事 李缜 2017 年 4 月 合肥国轩工程副总经理、研究总院院长 张宏立 董事 李缜 2019 年 12 月 合肥国轩电池研究院院长 Frank Engel 董事 大众中国 2020 年 8 月 大众中国副总裁，主管零部件、物流、质保 Andrea Nahmer 董事 大众中国 2021 年 12 月 负责大众生产、产品及投资控制业务 邱新平 独立董事 李缜 2021 年 12 月 清华大学化学系教授 王枫 独立董事 李缜 2021 年 12 月 闪电快车软件（北京）有限公司 CFO 孙哲 独立董事 大众中国 2021 年 12 月 美国哥伦比亚大学中国项目联席主任 周忆 独立董事 大众中国 2021 年 12 月 IBM 全球副总裁 资料来源：Wind、开源证券研究所 进入大众供应体系在订单规模、产品研发、品牌三方面为公司提供赋能。进入大众供应体系在订单规模、产品研发、品牌三方面为公司提供赋能。在订单规模方面，公司与大众签订协议为其开发第一代标准电芯，在新站高新区扩产20GWh 动力电池专供大众，快速扩大规模效应；在产品研发方面，大众技术团队入驻公司扣产品细节，提升公司产品安全性及量产稳定性；在品牌方面，电池厂商的 B端品牌效应首先体现在进入了哪家车企的供应体系，大众集团作为全球头部的汽车企业将明显提升公司品牌在全球的认可度。大众入股的赋能可以驱动公司进入发展的良性循环。大众入股的赋能可以驱动公司进入发展的良性循环。规模上的赋能可以通过规模效应降低公司产品的平均成本，研发和品控上的赋能帮助公司打磨出安全性和可公司深度报告公司深度报告 请务必参阅正文后面的信息披露和法律声明 6/30 靠性更高的产品，产品性价比提升及大众的品牌赋能帮助公司导入更多的优质核心客户，优质客户的导入又通过规模效应和联合研发进一步提升公司的产品性价比，形成成本客户性能正反馈发展的良性循环。图图4：大众入股驱动公司进入发展良性循环大众入股驱动公司进入发展良性循环 资料来源：开源证券研究所 1.3、财务分析：困境反转，财务分析：困境反转，2022 年起盈利有望持续向上年起盈利有望持续向上 公司公司 2020 年之前利润表现不佳是受到磷酸铁锂份额下降和公司客户结构的综年之前利润表现不佳是受到磷酸铁锂份额下降和公司客户结构的综合影响。合影响。在磷酸铁锂份额下降的背景下，公司为了保持营收端的正增长采用了全面扩容客户的战略，形成了以低端乘用车及商用车为主的客户结构。客户结构不理想首先导致了下游客户重视成本，公司产品溢价低；2019 年公司资产及信用减值损失合计 5.43 亿元，超过营收的 10%。此外，客户结构的问题也导致公司产品缺乏背书，进入优质客户供应体系的难度增大，形成了公司盈利能力的桎梏，在政策补贴不断退坡的背景下陷入亏损。2021 年以来原材料价格上涨，年以来原材料价格上涨，2022Q3 环比改善明显环比改善明显。2021 年起受到碳酸锂等原材料价格大幅上涨的影响，公司利润承压，同时 2022 年上半年公司的股权激励费用，对上半年的利润造成影响。Q2 开始公司开始向下游传导原材料价格压力，2022Q3公司实现归母净利润 1.5 亿元，同比增长 121%，环比增长 132%，盈利修复明显。图图5：公司营收保持高速增长，利润端受原材料价格影响承压公司营收保持高速增长，利润端受原材料价格影响承压 数据来源：Wind、开源证券研究所 补贴退坡给新能源车企带来降本压力，公司电池售价下行导致毛净利率下滑。补贴退坡给新能源车企带来降本压力，公司电池售价下行导致毛净利率下滑。补贴的退坡给新能源汽车带来了降本压力，动力电池作为新能源汽车的核心零部件-350.00%-300.00%-250.00%-200.00%-150.00%-100.00%-50.00%0.00P.000.000.00 0.00%-200204060801001201401602016A2017A2018A2019A2020A2021A2022Q3营业收入归母扣非净利润营收同比(%)归母同比（%）公司深度报告公司深度报告 请务必参阅正文后面的信息披露和法律声明 7/30 成为降价的核心，公司产品售价从2017年的1.69元/Wh下滑到2021年的0.68元/Wh，毛利率从 2017 年的 39%下降到 2022Q3 的 14%，由于公司成本管控能力强，毛利率稳居行业前列。图图6：公司产品售价不断下行公司产品售价不断下行 图图7：公司毛净利率下滑公司毛净利率下滑 数据来源：Wind、开源证券研究所 数据来源：Wind、开源证券研究所 现金流情况已经开始回暖。现金流情况已经开始回暖。2020 年以前公司另一个财务困境表现在现金回流能力，2017-2020 年在营收从 48 亿元增长至 67 亿元的同时，经营性现金流入却从 53亿元下降至 44 亿元，销售收现比降至 58%。2021 年公司产品性能提升，客户结构改善，净经营性现金流达到 10.58 亿元，同比增长 54%，现金流情况已经开始回暖。图图8：公司经营性现金流开始回暖（亿元）公司经营性现金流开始回暖（亿元）数据来源：Wind、开源证券研究所 0.000.501.001.502.002017A2018A2019A2020A2021A产品售价(元/Wh）0.00%5.00.00.00 .00%.000.005.00.00E.00 17A 2018A 2019A 2020A 2021A 2022Q3毛利率净利率-40.00-20.000.0020.0040.0060.0080.00100.002017A2018A2019A2020A2021A经营性现金流流入经营性现金流流出净经营性现金流公司深度报告公司深度报告 请务必参阅正文后面的信息披露和法律声明 8/30 2、做强铁锂做精三元大力扩展产能，产业链一体化贯彻成本做强铁锂做精三元大力扩展产能，产业链一体化贯彻成本领先战略领先战略 2.1、二线电池厂商仍存在赶超的窗口期二线电池厂商仍存在赶超的窗口期 动力电池装机份额国内企业不断提升。动力电池装机份额国内企业不断提升。2022年国轩高科国内装机量12.32GWh，占比 4.72%，市占率维持在 5%左右。在全球装机量份额上，2022 年国轩高科全球市占率为 2.7%，同比提升 0.4pct，排在全球第 8 位。图图9：国内动力电池装机份额国内动力电池装机份额国轩高科位于前列国轩高科位于前列 图图10：全球动力电池装机量份额国内企业不断提升全球动力电池装机量份额国内企业不断提升 数据来源：动力电池产业联盟公众号、开源证券研究所 数据来源：SNE、开源证券研究所 培养二线供应商是下游车企的诉求。培养二线供应商是下游车企的诉求。一方面车企需要保障核心部件电池的稳定供应以及保障议价能力；另一方面由于 C 端消费者的需求多元化，下游车企会有对应的不同定位的车型产品和电池需求，提升其他电池供应商的份额，形成多元化供应体系是下游车企的诉求。当前多极供应格局已经逐步形成，2021 年绝大部分车企均从多个供应商采购电池，未来随着与二线电池厂合作加深以及新车型平台的投放，二线电池厂商的渗透比例有望进一步提升。表表2：2021 年国内车企电池呈现多极供应格局年国内车企电池呈现多极供应格局 乘用车企乘用车企 宁德宁德时代时代 比亚迪比亚迪 国轩高国轩高科科 中创新中创新航航 亿纬锂亿纬锂能能 蜂巢科蜂巢科技技 孚能科孚能科技技 星恒能星恒能源源 LG 欣旺达欣旺达 力神力神 鹏辉能鹏辉能源源 SK 上汽集团 64%8%1%2%广汽集团 6u%北汽集团 72%7%东风集团 64%7%1%1%8%一汽集团 88%2%4%2%长安集团 41%53%华晨集团 100%奇瑞集团 8 %江淮汽车 78%长城汽车 31W%1%特斯拉 619%蔚来 100%0 0 182019202020212022宁德时代比亚迪中创新航国轩高科孚能科技亿纬锂能其他0 0 182019202020212022宁德时代LG新能源比亚迪松下SKI三星SDI中航锂电国轩高科其他公司深度报告公司深度报告 请务必参阅正文后面的信息披露和法律声明 9/30 乘用车企乘用车企 宁德宁德时代时代 比亚迪比亚迪 国轩高国轩高科科 中创新中创新航航 亿纬锂亿纬锂能能 蜂巢科蜂巢科技技 孚能科孚能科技技 星恒能星恒能源源 LG 欣旺达欣旺达 力神力神 鹏辉能鹏辉能源源 SK 理想 100%小鹏 77#%合众 45%1%1%威马 61%零跑 56C%数据来源：起点锂电、开源证券研究所 2.2、公司贯彻做强铁锂做精三元战略布局公司贯彻做强铁锂做精三元战略布局 公司电池形态以方形铁锂为主。公司电池形态以方形铁锂为主。公司当前产品布局中三元电池份额较少，2021年三元装机量仅占 7%，主要为磷酸铁锂电池，其中圆柱铁锂面向江淮、奇瑞、北汽等乘用车型，公司主要出货为方形铁锂电池，其中 2021 年方形电池装机量占总装机量的 75%，下游客户包括各类型乘用车、部分商用车、储能等客户。图图11：2021 年国轩高科装机以方形为主年国轩高科装机以方形为主 图图12：2021 年国轩高科装机以磷酸铁锂为主年国轩高科装机以磷酸铁锂为主 数据来源：GGII、开源证券研究所 数据来源：起点锂电、开源证券研究所 磷酸铁锂成本优势凸显，磷酸铁锂成本优势凸显，2021 年开始重新成为主流技术路线。年开始重新成为主流技术路线。随着磷酸铁锂电池能量密度的提升以及下游电动车补贴的退坡，三元体系高能量密度带来的边际收益减少，整车厂成本敏感度提升，铁锂体系低成本优势凸显，份额提升。2022 年前9 月磷酸铁锂电池装机量达到 116.3GWh，占比达到 60%，重新成为主流技术路线。图图13：磷酸铁锂电池装机成为主流磷酸铁锂电池装机成为主流 数据来源：GGII、开源证券研究所 十大生产基地快速扩产，德国产线加快出海进程。十大生产基地快速扩产，德国产线加快出海进程。公司逐步在国内形成了合肥（经开、庐江、新站）、南京、青岛、唐山、柳州、南通、桐城、宜春十大基地布局，产能快速扩张，公司国内工厂已公布的产能规划达 223GWh。此外，2021 年 8 月公方形75%圆柱25%方形圆柱磷酸铁锂93%三元7%磷酸铁锂三元0 0 182019202020212022年1-9月磷酸铁锂三元公司深度报告公司深度报告 请务必参阅正文后面的信息披露和法律声明 10/30 司在德国哥根廷收购博世工厂，棕地、绿地规划共计 18GWh 电池产能专门供应欧洲动力储能客户，加快出海进程。表表3：公司国内十大生产基地布局，德国产线加快欧洲出海公司国内十大生产基地布局，德国产线加快欧洲出海 基地基地 产能总产能总规划规划 电池类型电池类型 下游客户下游客户 合肥经开区 21GWh 三元电池 合肥庐江 9GWh 圆柱铁锂 江淮、奇瑞、北汽 合肥新站 50GWh 10GWh 铁锂，10GWh 三元 20GWh 专供大众标准电芯，铁锂、三元各 10GWh 南京基地 30GWh 磷酸铁锂，主要为方形 华为、吉利、奇瑞、瑞驰、上汽大通、五菱、长安、长城、零跑 青岛基地 3GWh 1GWh 方形铁锂，2GWh 圆柱铁锂 主要供应北汽 唐山基地 10GWh 大容量方形铁锂 华为等储能客户 柳州基地 30GWh 方形铁锂 上汽通用五菱 南通基地 10GWh 磷酸铁锂 与上海电气合资，公司持股 45%，专供储能客户 桐城基地 40GWh 磷酸铁锂 印度塔塔、美国客户等海外客户 宜春基地 30GWh 德国哥廷根 3.5GWh 专供博世 欧洲棕地绿地 18GWh 针对欧洲动力储能客户 越南河静 5GWh 与 VinES 合资，国轩持股 51%美国大瀑布城 电池材料 规划年产 15 万吨正极及 5 万吨负极材料产能预计 2030年完工 资料来源：起点锂电、公司官网、公司公告、GGII、开源证券研究所 公司公司2022年底产能将接近年底产能将接近100GWh。2022年南京四期20GWh、柳州一期5GWh、桐城一期10GWh及宜春一期10GWh共45GWh投产，到年底公司产能将达到92GWh，其中确定为铁锂电池的产能 87GWh，三元电池 5GWh，为公司 2023 年动力及储能电池放量形成支撑。表表4：公司公司 2022 年底年底电池产能电池产能接近接近 100GWh 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022E 2023E 2024E 2025E 下游客户下游客户 南京一二期 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 华为、吉利、奇瑞、瑞驰 南京三期 5 5 8 8 8 8 上汽大通、五菱、东风小康、重庆长安 南京四期 20 20 20 20 长安、长城、零跑、吉利、奇瑞、重庆瑞驰等 青岛一二期 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 主要供应北汽 唐山一二期 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 华为等储能客户 唐山三期 7 7 7 7 7 华为等储能客户 柳州一期 5 10 10 10 10 上汽通用五菱 柳州二期 10 20 20 上汽通用五菱、印度塔塔 南通一期（参股 43%）5 5 5 5 5 5 针对储能用户 南通二期（参 5 5 5 针对储能用户 公司深度报告公司深度报告 请务必参阅正文后面的信息披露和法律声明 11/30 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022E 2023E 2024E 2025E 下游客户下游客户 股 43%）合肥新站 10 10 10 大众 铁锂方形铁锂方形 6 6 16 28 56 81 91 91 合肥一二期 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 北汽、上汽、江淮、奇瑞 合肥庐江 1 4 7 7 7 7 7 7 主要为圆柱铁锂，供应江淮、奇瑞、北汽 青岛一二期 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 主要供应北汽 铁锂圆柱铁锂圆柱 5 8 11 11 11 11 11 11 桐城一期 10 10 10 10 印度塔塔、美国客户等海外客户 桐城二期 10 20 20 印度塔塔、美国客户等海外客户 桐城三期 10 铁锂形状待定铁锂形状待定 0 0 0 0 10 20 30 40 铁锂合计铁锂合计 11 14 27 39 77 112 132 142 合肥经开一期 4 4 5 5 5 5 5 5 合肥经开二期 8 16 16 合肥新站 10 10 10 大众 三元电池三元电池 4 4 5 5 5 23 31 31 合肥新站 30 30 宜春一期 10 10 10 10 宜春二期 20 20 20 德国哥廷根 3.5 3.5 3.5 博世 欧洲棕地 3.5 6 6 欧洲动力储能客户 欧洲绿地 6 12 欧洲动力储能客户 越南河静 5 5 5 与 VinES 合资，国轩持股51%其他产能（型其他产能（型号待定）号待定）0 0 0 0 42 81 87 42 产能合计产能合计 15 18 32 44 177 244 260 177 资料来源：公司官网、公司公告、GGII、起点锂电、开源证券研究所 2.3、产业链一体化布局帮助公司成本领先产业链一体化布局帮助公司成本领先 产业链布局全，形成成本端竞争力。产业链布局全，形成成本端竞争力。在锂矿环节，公司国内在宜春规划合计 12万吨碳酸锂产能，预计在 2025 年前将全部投产，在阿根廷规划 6 万吨碳酸锂产能；在正极材料环节，公司在庐江自建 20 万吨磷酸铁锂及 3 万吨高镍三元材料产线，并向上延伸至前驱体环节；在负极材料环节，公司在乌海规划 40 万吨石墨负极产能，将全部采用太阳能发电，其中一期 10 万吨于 2022 年 3 月已开工建设；隔膜环节公司与星源材质合资建厂规划 5 亿平米湿法隔膜；铜箔环节战略入股了铜冠铜箔。全面的上游战略布局帮助公司实现成本领先。公司深度报告公司深度报告 请务必参阅正文后面的信息披露和法律声明 12/30 图图14：国轩高科产业链布局完整国轩高科产业链布局完整 资料来源：公司公告、投资者问答、爱企查、开源证券研究所 公司成本领先市场，未来规模效应扩大以及一体化项目投产，成本优势有望进公司成本领先市场，未来规模效应扩大以及一体化项目投产，成本优势有望进一步扩大。一步扩大。公司充分发挥磷酸铁锂电池成本低的相对优势，战略布局向上游延伸实现正极材料的自供，始终保持生产成本端的优势，2017-2021 年公司电池成本从 1.02元/Wh 下降到 0.55 元/Wh，未来随着规模效应扩大以及一体化项目投产，成本优势有望进一步扩大。图图15：公司锂电池组销售均价具有优势（元公司锂电池组销售均价具有优势（元/Wh）图图16：公司电池生产成本行业领先（元公司电池生产成本行业领先（元/Wh）数据来源：各公司公告、彭博新能源财经、开源证券研究所 数据来源：各公司公告、开源证券研究所 锂资源布局行业领先，锂资源布局行业领先，2023 年碳酸锂自供率有望达到年碳酸锂自供率有望达到 55%。在锂资源端，公司与科丰锂业合资成立宜春科丰规划 2 万吨碳酸锂产能，公司持股约 79%，宜春科丰国轩科丰年产 2 万吨电池级碳酸锂项目，顺利产出碳酸锂，2022 年预期出货 0.6 万吨；公司与宜春矿业合资成立宜春国轩，分别在宜丰和奉新各规划 5 万吨碳酸锂产能，宜丰碳酸锂项目一期年产 2.5 万吨，有望于 2023 年初投产，2023 年预期碳酸锂出货 2 万吨，对应碳酸锂自供率超过 50%，中性情况下有望贡献 24.8 亿元利润。表表5：国轩高科碳酸锂自供率行业领先国轩高科碳酸锂自供率行业领先 公司公司/产线产线 持股比例持股比例 产能总规划（万吨）产能总规划（万吨）2023 年出货（万吨）年出货（万吨）宜春科丰 79%2.5 1.5 宜春国轩 55 0.5 0.000.501.001.502.0020172018201920202021国轩高科宁德时代中创新航孚能科技全球平均0.000.200.400.600.801.001.201.4020172018201920202021国轩高科宁德时代中创新航孚能科技国内行业平均公司深度报告公司深度报告 请务必参阅正文后面的信息披露和法律声明 13/30 公司公司/产线产线 持股比例持股比例 产能总规划（万吨）产能总规划（万吨）2023 年出货（万吨）年出货（万吨）国轩胡胡伊矿业 6 权益产量合计（万吨）1.46 电池出货量（GWh）47 碳酸锂需求量（万吨）2.68 自供比例 54.5%自产碳酸锂单吨成本（万元）20 乐观预期下贡献利润（亿元)（假设碳酸锂价 50 万元/吨,所得税 15%）37.23 中性预期下贡献利润（亿元)（假设碳酸锂价 40 万元/吨,所得税 15%）24.82 悲观预期下贡献利润（亿元)（假设碳酸锂价 30 万元/吨,所得税 15%）12.41 数据来源：公司公告、开源证券研究所 电力设备电力设备/电池电池 请务必参阅正文后面的信息披露和法律声明 14/30 3、技术突破驱动动力客户结构改善，储能布局带来新增量技术突破驱动动力客户结构改善，储能布局带来新增量 3.1、自研自研 JTM 技术，大众技术赋能加强质控技术，大众技术赋能加强质控 自研自研 JTM 技术突破电池成组工艺专利壁垒。技术突破电池成组工艺专利壁垒。电池 PACK 成组工艺是电池组生产的重要技术壁垒，成熟的成组工艺需要做到减少模组和 PACK 层级的连接件，简化内部结构及零部件数量，提升空间利用率，实现降低成本和提升能量密度的双重目的。公司于 2020 年自主研发出 JTM 技术，实现了技术壁垒的突破并申请了发明专利，2022年上半年首批搭载JTM技术的电池产线落地，电池系统能量密度160Wh/kg，处于行业领先水平。JTM 技术主打电芯适用性和模组成本符合公司当前成本领先战略定位。技术主打电芯适用性和模组成本符合公司当前成本领先战略定位。除了可以提升电池能量密度以及防止热失控提升电池安全性以外，JTM 技术一方面卷绕的方式较为灵活，在实现模组标准化提升电池能量密度的同时能够适应市场上 95%的各种型号电芯，对各车厂的需求差异具有更好的适应性；另一方面工艺较为简单，将电芯卷绕之后通过导电组件串联起来，模组材料成本较低，成组效率高，单体到模组效率超过 90%，将锂电池模组总体制造成本降低至铅酸电池水平，符合公司当前低成本发展的战略定位。图图17：JTM 技术模组对各类型电芯适应性强技术模组对各类型电芯适应性强 资料来源：国家知识产权局 与大众深度合作从研发效率、技术资源协同两方面赋能公司研发。与大众深度合作从研发效率、技术资源协同两方面赋能公司研发。研发效率：研发效率：成本端大众提供的确定性产品路线指引以及派出的采购、产品、质控等方面的专家可以节约公司的研发资源；产出端通过产业链下游使用端的密集沟通和反馈，可以帮助公司更加有针对性地针对弱环进行研发，优化产品性能。技术资源协同：技术资源协同：公司的实验室样品研发进展一直处于行业领先水平，2020 年公司就通过预锂化、硅基负极等技术研发出了单体能量密度 210Wh/kg 的磷酸铁锂电池。大众在电池可靠性验证、测试周期、测试方法等方面经验丰富，大众的品控团队入驻公司快速提升了公司的品控能力。2023 年 2 月 21 日，公司正式获得大众电芯测试实验室资质认证，象征着公司正式进入全球领先技术管理体系。公司深度报告公司深度报告 请务必参阅正文后面的信息披露和法律声明 15/30 表表6：大众电池在固态电池及产品品控方面有丰富的技术资源大众电池在固态电池及产品品控方面有丰富的技术资源 时间时间 相关方相关方 业务布局业务布局 2018 投资 QuantunScape 研发固态电池等电池材料工艺 2019 投资 Northvolt AB 进行动力电池全产业链的技术研发，为大众供应电池 2020 入股国轩高科 增强供应链管理能力，为大众供应标准电芯 2021 投资萨尔茨吉特实验室 提升电池检测水平，保障电池安全性和长期稳定性 资料来源：公司公告、安徽日报、开源证券研究所 公司在固态电池领域研发有望实现弯道超车。公司在固态电池领域研发有望实现弯道超车。2022 年 5 月公司发布半固态三元电池，搭载半固态电池的车型，电池包电量达到 160kWh，续航里程长达 1000km，有望在 2023 年上半年实现批量供货。既象征着公司加快了对长续航中高端车型的渗透，也有望帮助公司的三元电池站稳脚跟，实现弯道超车。图图18：2022 年年 5 月公司发布半固态电池月公司发布半固态电池 资料来源：安徽日报 3.2、储能：从发电侧到用户侧，公司储能业务扩展提速储能：从发电侧到用户侧，公司储能业务扩展提速 公司储能布局早，从发电侧入局。公司储能布局早，从发电侧入局。公司于 2014 年开展储能业务，并于 2016 年正式成立储能事业部，从发电侧储能入局，陆续承接咸阳彩虹、电子十一院、北京福威斯、国家电网、美国西弗吉尼亚、皖能股份的多个项目。在产能方面，2018 年公司与上海电气在南通规划合计 10GWh 储能电池产线，公司持股 43%，一期 5GWh已于 2020 年 9 月投产。表表7：2022 年国轩高科在全球储能电池出货量中排名第年国轩高科在全球储能电池出货量中排名第 6 排行排行 企业企业 1 宁德时代 2 比亚迪 3 瑞浦兰钧 4 亿纬锂能 5 鹏辉能源 6 国轩高科 7 海辰储能 8 赣锋锂电 9 派能科技 公司深度报告公司深度报告 请务必参阅正文后面的信息披露和法律声明 16/30 排行排行 企业企业 10 远景动力 资料来源：GGII、开源证券研究所 与苏美达签订战略协议开辟新篇章。与苏美达签订战略协议开辟新篇章。2022 年 10 月 12 日公司与苏美达签订2023-2025 年 10GWh 的战略框架协议，在国内积极开发大储等储能市场，在海外依托苏美达在 FIRMAN 发电机组的渠道、设备集成能力和售后服务网络开拓户储和工商业储能市场。同时 2022 年底苏美达首款便携式储能产品 FIRMAN Zero E 完成交付，未来有望贡献储能电池增量需求。表表8：国轩高科储能业务布局早国轩高科储能业务布局早 时间时间 合作方合作方 事件事件 2016.9 成立储能事业部 2016.12 咸阳彩虹 签订战略合作协议，建设风电、光伏 储能电站 2017.2 电子十一院、北京福威斯 签署 200MW 储能电站合作协议 2017.5 上海电气 共同出资成立上海电气国轩 2017.10 南通经济技术开发区 签署投资协议，扩展分布式储能、电网储能业务 2018.1 中国铁塔 签署动力电池梯级再生利用战略合作协议 2018.11 台塑集团 为台塑锂铁储能系统供应 IFR32131 电芯 2018.12 上海电气国轩 在南通规划 10GWh 锂电池电池储能系统产能 2019.6 华为 与华为签订采购合作协议，在锂电储能领域开展合作 2019 美国 PJM 在美国伊利诺伊州和西弗吉尼亚州合作部署两个 72MW/72MWh 磷酸铁锂储能项目 2022.1 皖能股份 淮北皖能储能电站一期（103MW/206MWh）工程总承包，总金额3.94 亿元 2022.5 国家电网“Power Ocean”储能产品中标国家电网多功能移动储能充电车项目 2022.10 苏美达 签订 2023-2025 年 10GWh 的战略框架协议 资料来源：CNESE、公司公告、投资者互动平台、开源证券研究所 通信侧与华为深度合作，用户侧储能系统产品开始受到市场认可。通信侧与华为深度合作，用户侧储能系统产品开始受到市场认可。2018 年 11月公司与台塑集团合作开始切入用户侧储能，公司为台塑集团的储能系统提供IFR32131 电芯，后者在台北地区规划运营 550 个储能电站，合计电量达 0.85GWh。2019 年 6 月公司与华为开始深度合作，为其通信储能系统提供电芯产品。进入 2022年，公司开始从储能电芯向下游切入储能系统产品，第三代“Power Ocean”储能产品中标国家电网储能充电车项目。3.3、客户结构改善将驱动公司盈利逆境反转客户结构改善将驱动公司盈利逆境反转 3.3.1、公司公司前期客户基本盘以商用车及前期客户基本盘以商用车及 A00 级车为主级车为主 商用车提供稳定装机，吉利商用车有望带来增量。商用车提供稳定装机，吉利商用车有望带来增量。2022 年 4 月公司与吉利商用车新签订 2022-2024 年电池长单，预估总量 12.6 万套。吉利商用车品牌远程销量一直稳居国内前列，两款车型入选 2022 年新能源物流车畅销车型。此前公司已经为瑞驰 EC35 配套电池，也进入上汽大通供应体系，与吉利的合作将进一步稳定公司在物流车的市场地位。根据吉利商用车规划，到 2025 年实现新能源车销量 25 万辆，市场占有率 21%；到 2030 年实现新能源销量 57 万辆，市场占有率 20%，未来销量看公司深度报告公司深度报告 请务必参阅正文后面的信息披露和法律声明 17/30 好，有望给公司商用车领域带来稳定新增量。表表9：2022 年吉利远程系列多款车入选新能源物流车畅销车型年吉利远程系列多款车入选新能源物流车畅销车型 车型名称车型名称 销量（辆）销量（辆）占比占比 瑞驰 EC35 23852 10.11%远程星享远程星享 18652 7.91%鑫源 X30L EV 12109 5.13%东风御风 EM26 10418 4.42%上汽大通 MAXUS EV30 9661 4.10%开瑞江豚 6985 2.96%五菱 EV50 6140 2.60%新吉奥帅凌 6023 2.55%远程星享远程星享 E6 5505 2.33%申龙微面 5475 2.32%数据来源：电车资源公众号、开源证券研究所 A00 级车已基本完成燃油替代。级车已基本完成燃油替代。2018 年新能源车补贴与续航里程挂钩后，一大批 A00 级骗补车型成为历史，A00 级车型占比快速下降。2020 年公司开始配套五菱宏光 MINI 车型，市场领先的电池成本以及精准的代步车定位实现了对燃油车的快速渗透，A00 级车份额有所回升。2021 年 A00 级电动车的渗透率已经接近 100%，预计未来 A 级以上车型将成为增量主要来源。图图19：国内国内 A00 级乘用车销量占比开始下降级乘用车销量占比开始下降 数据来源：乘联会、开源证券研究所 A00 级车是公司乘用车电池根据地市场。级车是公司乘用车电池根据地市场。2017 年 A00 级车为当时市场主流，公司也通过江淮 iEV6e 及北汽 EC180 车型从 A00 级车切入乘用车市场，后续发展了奇瑞、宝骏等客户，站稳 A00 级车第一梯队脚跟。2020 年进入宏光 MINI 供应体系，帮助其成为当年爆款车型，也为公司带来了大量的配套订单，实现了双赢，2021 年公司配套超 13.4 万辆宏光 MINI，占其销量的 34%。表表10：公司配套多款公司配套多款 A00 级畅销车型（单位：万辆）级畅销车型（单位：万辆）2017 年年 销量销量 2018 年年 销量销量 2019 年年 销量销量 2020 年年 销量销量 2021 年年 销量销量 北汽 EC 7.81 北汽 EC 9.06 宝骏新能源 6.01 宏光 MINI 11.28 宏光 MINI 39.55 知豆 D2 4.23 奇瑞 eQ 4.70 奇瑞 eQ 3.94 欧拉黑猫 4.68 奇瑞 eQ 7.70 0 0 1720182019202020212022HA00级A0级A级B级C级公司深度报告公司深度报告 请务必参阅正文后面的信息披露和法律声明 18/30 2017 年年 销量销量 2018 年年 销量销量 2019 年年 销量销量 2020 年年 销量销量 2021 年年 销量销量 奇瑞 eQ 2.58 江淮 IEV6E 4.32 欧拉 R1 2.85 奇瑞 eQ 3.82 奔奔 EV 7.64 江淮 IEV6E 2.42 江铃 E200 3.21 北汽 EC 2.74 宝骏 E100 2.11 欧拉黑猫 6.35 众泰 E200 1.68 华泰 EV160 2.97 江淮 IEV6E 1.84 宝骏 E200 1.57 科莱威CLEVER 4.60 数据来源：乘联会、开源证券研究所 客户以乘用车为主，配套了大量中小型客户。客户以乘用车为主，配套了大量中小型客户。客户结构上，公司已经完成了从商用车向乘用车的转型，2021 年乘用车装机量比例 87%占据主要份额。此外，公司配套了大量中小型客户，2021 年配套了 15 家乘用车客户(包括大众、长城、长安、上汽通用五菱等)、9 家客车用户(安凯、上汽等)、27 家专用车用户(包括小康、北汽等)，总客户数量排名第二。图图20：2021 年公年公司装机以乘用车为主司装机以乘用车为主 数据来源：GGII、开源证券研究所 3.3.2、从商用车及低端乘用车向中高端车型突破，客户结构逐步改善从商用车及低端乘用车向中高端车型突破，客户结构逐步改善 根据地市场向头部客户热销车型扩展。根据地市场向头部客户热销车型扩展。在专用车市场，公司 2020 年起新配套了瑞驰 EC35，2021 年销量在新能源物流车中排名第一；在 A00 级乘用车市场，公司相继新增配套了宏光 MINI 及奇瑞 QQ 冰淇淋，2022 年上半年销量在新能源乘用车中分别排名第一、第十一名。积极扩展热销车型的配套比例可以提升单一车型的装机规模，通过规模效应带来的成本领先提升盈利水平。乘用车87%专用车8%客车及其他5%乘用车专用车客车及其他公司深度报告公司深度报告 请务必参阅正文后面的信息披露和法律声明 19/30 图图21：2021 年公司各客户份额趋于平衡年公司各客户份额趋于平衡 数据来源：GGII、开源证券研究所 向中高端车型突破。向中高端车型突破。2020 年随着公司产品性能及品牌效应的提升，相继进入哪吒 N01、欧尚科尚 EV 供应体系，完成了向 A0 级以上车型的突破。2021 年 11 月公司与长城签订 2022-2025 年 10GWh 长单，为欧拉好猫及欧拉芭蕾猫提供磷酸铁锂电池。其中欧拉好猫 2021 年销量接近 5 万辆，排在乘用车 14 名；欧拉芭蕾猫为全球第一款深度结合女性需求的汽车，在外观气质、专属功能、易操作性等方面进行专属设计，已于 2022 年 7 月 12 日正式上市，有望为公司装机带来新增量。表表11：公司配套车型向中高端车型突破公司配套车型向中高端车型突破 开始配套时间开始配套时间 下游客户下游客户 车型车型 类别类别 2017 年 江淮汽车 思皓 E10X A00 级乘用车 2017 年 奇瑞汽车 奇瑞 eQ1 A00 级乘用车 2021 年 QQ 冰淇淋 A00 级乘用车 2017 年 北汽新能源 北汽 EC3 A00 级乘用车 2019 年 吉利商用车 远程系列 专用车 2020 年 瑞驰汽车 瑞驰 EC35 专用车 2020 年 上汽通用五菱 宏光 MINI A00 级乘用车 2020 年 合众新能源 哪吒 N01 A0 级乘用车 2020 年 长安汽车 欧尚科尚 EV A 级乘用车 2021 年 奔奔 e-Star A00 级乘用车 2021 年 零跑汽车 零跑 T03 A00 级乘用车 2022 年 长城汽车 欧拉好猫 A0 级乘用车 2022 年 欧拉芭蕾猫 A 级乘用车 资料来源：乘联会、公司公告、开源证券研究所 表表12：公司配套多款公司配套多款 2022 年新能源乘用车畅销车型年新能源乘用车畅销车型 车型名称车型名称 销量（辆）销量（辆）比亚迪宋 475306 宏光宏光 MINI 404823 比亚迪秦 341943 Model Y 315314 比亚迪汉 272418 上汽通用五菱28%江淮汽车19%奇瑞汽车14%零跑汽车9%长安汽车8%北汽新能源3%枫盛汽车3%吉利汽车2%安凯汽车2%其他12%公司深度报告公司深度报告 请务必参阅正文后面的信息披露和法律声明 20/30 车型名称车型名称 销量（辆）销量（辆）比亚迪海豚 204226 比亚迪元 PLUS 167220 比亚迪唐 148585 埃安 Y 120585 埃安 S 116332 QQ 冰淇淋 96529 哪吒 V 95529 奇瑞奇瑞 eQ 94330 奔奔 EV 92053 理想 ONE 78791 资料来源：乘联会、公司公告、开源证券研究所 3.4、突破新市场全面发力，增量确定性强突破新市场全面发力，增量确定性强 3.4.1、大众：公司率先获得标准电芯定点，带来大量确定性订单增量大众：公司率先获得标准电芯定点，带来大量确定性订单增量 进击的巨人：大众电动车发展迅速。进击的巨人：大众电动车发展迅速。大众电动车已经在欧洲市场取得领先，先后推出的三款车型均在欧洲畅销，2022 年大众集团（大众 奥迪）电动车在欧洲市占率达到 16.88%。根据大众的“Roadmap E”电动化战略，到 2025 年实现每年生产 300万辆电动汽车，并且未来推出 80 款全新的电动车型，其中大众中国电动车计划年交付量达到 150 万辆，对应电池需求 100GWh。表表13：2022 年大众多款车型在欧洲热销年大众多款车型在欧洲热销 纯电动车型纯电动车型 销量（辆）销量（辆）市占率市占率 特斯拉 Model Y 138,373 5.32%特斯拉 Model 3 91,257 3.51%大众大众 ID.4 68,409 2.63%菲亚特 500e 66,732 2.56%福特 Kuga PHEV 55,018 2.11%大众大众 ID.3 53,287 2.05%斯柯达 Enyaq 52,635 2.02%达契亚 Spring 48,948 1.88%标志 208EV 46,834 1.80%奥迪 Q4 e-tron 42,540 1.63%资料来源：第一电动网、开源证券研究所 公司深度报告公司深度报告 请务必参阅正文后面的信息披露和法律声明 21/30 图图22：2022 年大众在欧洲电动车市占率排名第二年大众在欧洲电动车市占率排名第二 数据来源：EU-EV、开源证券研究所 公司供应大众标准电芯平台，带来大量确定性订单增量。公司供应大众标准电芯平台，带来大量确定性订单增量。2021 年 3 月大众公布了标准电芯概念，据其测算标准电芯可以将电芯成本降低 50%。大众规划标准电芯将于 2024 年正式应用，将涵盖大众旗下 80%车型。2021 年 7 月公司与大众签订协议在新站高新区建设 20GWh 动力电池生产基地专供大众标准电芯生产，公司也成为全球首个获得大众标准电芯研发合同的定点开发商，目前公司已同时取得大众的磷酸铁锂和三元电池正式量产定点，将于 2023-2024 年带来确定性订单增量。图图23：大众标准电芯打造低成本电池大众标准电芯打造低成本电池 图图24：大众推出多款电动车平台大众推出多款电动车平台 资料来源：投资快报社 资料来源：EV 之家 3.4.2、三元：做强三元战略稳步推进，与大众合作开启新征程三元：做强三元战略稳步推进，与大众合作开启新征程 做强三元战略稳步推进。做强三元战略稳步推进。2017-2020 年公司三元电池稳步推进，到 2020 年公司已经研发出单体能量密度达 307Wh/kg 的高镍三元电池，并已进入奇瑞、北汽、长安等客户供应体系。2021 年公司三元电池客户扩容加速，当年工信部推荐目录中公司配套了 17 款车型的三元电池，为长安配套的车型电池系统能量密度达 201Wh/kg，续航里程达 500KM，进一步证明公司的高端技术产业化能力已经得到提升，正在往中高端车型切入。2022 年公司获得大众三元电池定点，开启新征程。与大众的三元电池合作逐步形成三元电池的发展良性循环。与大众的三元电池合作逐步形成三元电池的发展良性循环。2021 年 7 月公司发布公告称与大众将在德国萨尔茨吉特共同建设工厂，开发生产三元标准电芯，并进一步探讨第一代磷酸铁锂标准电芯，加上国内的三元定点，公司有望同时分享大众在国内及欧洲的订单红利，快速扩张三元规模形成发展良性循环。特斯拉,14.98%大众,11.27%雷诺,4.53%现代,5.62%尼桑,2.27%宝马,6.16%起亚,4.73%奥迪,5.61%其他,38.92%特斯拉大众雷诺现代尼桑宝马起亚奥迪其他公司深度报告公司深度报告 请务必参阅正文后面的信息披露和法律声明 22/30 图图25：公司三元电池业务稳步推进公司三元电池业务稳步推进 数据来源：公司官网、公司公告、开源证券研究所 表表14：2021 年新能源汽车推荐目录公司三元电池新增配套年新能源汽车推荐目录公司三元电池新增配套多款多款车型车型 配套车型配套车型 电池能量密度（电池能量密度（Wh/kg）续航里程（续航里程（KM）枫叶牌 MR7001SEV02 150 415 英伦牌 MR6490SEV01 151 340 燕铃牌 BAW7003UB54BEV 172 420 天琴牌 YZ7001BEV 160 402 吉利牌 HQ7004BEV01 148 322 北京牌 BJ7000USD8-BEV 200 470 力帆牌 LF6473SEV 150 415 长安牌 SC6484ABABEV 201 500 天琴牌 YZ7001BEV1 160 402 力帆牌 LF6473SEV1 150 410 力帆牌 LF7001SEV2 150 415 枫叶牌 JL6471SEV03 150 415 枫叶牌 JL6471SEV03 150 415 枫叶牌 JL6471SEV03 144 415 枫叶牌 JL6471SEV03 144 415 枫叶牌 JL7001SEV01 150 415 英伦牌 RX6490SEV01 151 320 资料来源：GGII、工信部、商车网、开源证券研究所 3.4.3、海外：公司电池出海提速，看好印度、美国未来订单增量海外：公司电池出海提速，看好印度、美国未来订单增量 合作塔塔分享印度电动车市场红利。合作塔塔分享印度电动车市场红利。2019 年 5 月公司与印度塔塔规划合资建设电池厂为其电动车提供电池，公司持股 40%。2021 年印度电动车市场进入快速渗透期，2021年电动车渗透率从0.18%上升至0.45%，销量达到1.2万辆，同比增长202.39%，未来潜在市场空间大。目前印度销量前十大车厂中，仅塔塔、马亨达、现代、MG等四家推出电动车，其中，塔塔 Nexon EV 车款因符合补贴资格，占本地电动车销量近 8 成，公司 2019 年就绑定塔塔具有充分的先发优势，有望充分享受印度电动车市场红利。公司深度报告公司深度报告 请务必参阅正文后面的信息披露和法律声明 23/30 图图26：印度电动乘用车印度电动乘用车目前渗透率较低目前渗透率较低 数据来源：DIGITIMES Research、开源证券研究所 出海提速，获得美国客户大批量长单。出海提速，获得美国客户大批量长单。在扩展了德国博世、越南 Vinfast 客户之后，2021 年 12 月公司又获得某美国客户 2023-2028 年共计 200GWh 磷酸铁锂电池订单。我们推测该客户可能为美国车企 Rivian，Rivian 电动皮卡 R1T 和电动 SUV R1S合计预订量已经超过 5.5 万辆，2022 年二季度又收到亚马逊 10 万辆纯电动货车 EDV订单，由于产能受限，Rivian22 年上半年仅生产不到 7000 辆。而根据 Rivian 规划，将在德克萨斯州建设年产 20 万辆的工厂用于生产 2023 年投放的 R2 系列车型，并可能合资自产电池。到2030年Rivian将在全球建立四个产能基地，年产达到100万辆，占据电动车市场份额 10%以上。随着未来产能的投放将快速放量，公司的电池订单增量确定性高。表表15：Rivian 产能规划产能规划接近接近 100 万辆万辆 基地名称基地名称 产能（万辆）产能（万辆）预计投产时间预计投产时间 生产车型生产车型 伊利诺伊州工厂 15 2022 年 R1T、R1S 德克萨斯州工厂 20 2023 年中 R2 系列 中国工厂 65 2030 年前 欧洲工厂 数据来源：第一电动、开源证券研究所 3.4.4、小动力：抓住二轮车锂电池替代趋势，提前布局电动船市场小动力：抓住二轮车锂电池替代趋势，提前布局电动船市场 电动二轮车开始锂电池对传统铅酸电池的替代，公司主打头部客户。电动二轮车开始锂电池对传统铅酸电池的替代，公司主打头部客户。锂电池在使用寿命和电量上均具有明显优势，在电动二轮车市场也开始了锂电池对铅酸电池的替代趋势，据艾瑞咨询预测 2020 年锂电池渗透率已经达到 20%。据 GGII 预测到2026 年二轮车锂电池出货量将达到 30GWh，未来几年 CAGR 达到 18%。2020 年公司已经与滴滴出行有过合作，全年为其共享电单车供货 62.3 万套，出货量达到370MWh，也与雅迪、爱玛等头部客户正在技术对接，未来有望达成合作贡献出货。0.00%0.10%0.20%0.30%0.40%0.500004000600080001000012000140002015201620172018201920202021电动乘用车销量（辆）渗透率公司深度报告公司深度报告 请务必参阅正文后面的信息披露和法律声明 24/30 图图27：国内电动两轮车锂电池占比提升国内电动两轮车锂电池占比提升 图图28：国内电动二轮车锂电池出货量预计国内电动二轮车锂电池出货量预计将将快速增长快速增长 数据来源：艾瑞咨询2021 年中国两轮电动车智能化白皮书、开源证券研究所 数据来源：GGII、Evtank、开源证券研究所 电动船电池电动船电池 2022 年起有望进入快速发展期，公司已获得船级社认证。年起有望进入快速发展期，公司已获得船级社认证。据 GGII数据，2018 年船舶电动化率仅为 0.016%，在前期小批量应用的电动船经过 1.5-2 年的验证周期后，2023 年电动船有望得到大批量应用进入快速放量期，按 25 年 18.5%的电动化率计算届时市场需求量将达到 35.41GWh。2020 年 3 月公司已经获得首批 3 船套锂电池订单，并在 2020 年 10 月获得船级社认证，未来有望在电动船市场获得新增出货。图图29：国内电动船舶电池需求量预计快速增长国内电动船舶电池需求量预计快速增长 数据来源：GGII、开源证券研究所 4、盈利预测与估值评级盈利预测与估值评级 4.1、核心假设核心假设 动力电池：动力电池：公司积极拓展海外市场，已深度绑定印度电动车企塔塔、美国大客户等海外客户，有望充分享受印度、美国的电动车增长红利。预计 2022-2024 年动力电池营收分别为 169.55、280.00、442.00 亿元，同比 74%、 65%、 58%。由于公司 2023 年碳酸锂自供比例有望提升，预计毛利率恢复至 18%。储能电池：储能电池：公司储能布局早，在发电侧和通信侧与国家电网、华为等客户合作紧密，2022 年 10 月与苏美达签订战略合作协议有望加速向国内大储和海外储能市场8.70%9.70%8.70.40 %0 0 162017201820192020锂电池铅酸电池0.00%5.00.00.00 .00%.000203040出货量（GWh）同比增长0.000.00 0.0000.000.00P0.00101520253035402016201720182019202020212022E 2023E 2024E 2025E需求量（GWh）同比增长公司深度报告公司深度报告 请务必参阅正文后面的信息披露和法律声明 25/30 扩张，预计 2023-2024 年储能电池营收分别为 36.08、105.00、195.00 亿元，同比增长 191%、86%，公司原材料布局较为全面，毛利率有望逐步恢复至 18%。表表16：公司营收拆分与预测公司营收拆分与预测 2019 2020 2021 2022E 2023E 2024E 动力电池 收入（亿元）43.21 62.77 97.65 169.55 280.00 442.00 YOY 45VteX%成本（亿元）28.79 47.25 80.19 147.42 229.60 362.44 毛利（亿元）14.42 15.52 17.46 22.13 50.40 79.56 毛利率(%)33.37$.72.88.05.00.00%储能电池 收入（亿元）36.08 105.00 195.00 YOY 191%成本（亿元）31.98 89.25 159.90 毛利（亿元）4.10 15.75 35.10 毛利率(%)11.38.00.00%输变电业务 收入（亿元）5.00 3.44 4.58 6.47 7.50 8.70 YOY -313$%成本（亿元）4.17 2.88 3.99 5.87 6.38 7.40 毛利（亿元）0.83 0.56 0.60 0.59 1.13 1.31 毛利率(%)16.55.18.98%9.19.00.00%其他 收入（亿元）1.38 1.04 1.33 5.53 5.53 5.53 YOY -25(17%0%0%成本（亿元）0.49 0.15 0.11 2.04 2.04 2.04 毛利（亿元）0.89 0.89 1.21 3.50 3.50 3.50 毛利率(%)64.42.99.44c.22c.22c.22%总计 收入（亿元）49.59 67.24 103.56 217.64 398.04 651.24 YOY 36T0Wh%成本（亿元）33.45 50.28 84.29 187.31 327.26 531.77 毛利（亿元）16.13 16.96 19.27 30.33 70.77 119.46 毛利率(%)32.54%.23.61.94.78.34%数据来源：Wind、开源证券研究所 4.2、估值评级估值评级 综上，我们预计公司 2022-2024 年营业收入为 217.64、398.04、651.24 亿元，归归母净利分别为母净利分别为 2.18、16.00、28.21 亿元，同比亿元，同比 114.2%、 633.1%、76.3%，对应，对应 PE分别为分别为 242.0、32.9、18.7 倍。倍。公司 2023 年 PEG 与 PS 分别为 0.05、1.32，明显低于可比公司的 0.26、2.1，考虑到公司在大众入股后在客户、产品等方面的困境反转，2024 年为大众批量供货后利润有望进一步兑现，维持“买入”评级。表表17：公司公司 2023 年年 PEG、PS 都大幅低于可比公司都大幅低于可比公司 公司代码公司代码 公司名称公司名称 评级评级 收盘价收盘价（元）（元）EPS PE PEG PS 2023/3/28 2022E 2023E 2024E 2022E 2023E 2024E 2023E 2023E 300750.SZ 宁德时代 买入 392.6 11.08 17.10 25.30 35.43 22.96 15.52 0.42 2.65 300438.SZ 鹏辉能源 买入 56.6 1.25 2.92 4.13 45.24 19.37 13.69 0.14 1.37 公司深度报告公司深度报告 请务必参阅正文后面的信息披露和法律声明 26/30 公司代码公司代码 公司名称公司名称 评级评级 收盘价收盘价（元）（元）EPS PE PEG PS 2023/3/28 2022E 2023E 2024E 2022E 2023E 2024E 2023E 2023E 300014.SZ 亿纬锂能 买入 67.8 1.92 3.62 5.96 35.31 18.73 11.38 0.21 2.20 平均 38.66 20.35 13.53 0.26 2.07 002074.SZ 国轩高科 买入 29.6 0.12 0.90 1.59 242.00 32.94 18.68 0.05 1.32 资料来源：开源证券研究所数据来源：Wind、开源证券研究所（可比公司盈利预测与估值均来自开源证券研究所，收盘价选取日期为2023 年 3 月 24 日）5、风险提示风险提示 电动车下游需求景气度不及预期风险、行业竞争加剧盈利恶化风险、电动车下游需求景气度不及预期风险、行业竞争加剧盈利恶化风险、公司储能公司储能客户扩展不及预期风险客户扩展不及预期风险 公司深度报告公司深度报告 请务必参阅正文后面的信息披露和法律声明 27/30 附：财务预测摘要附：财务预测摘要 资产负债表资产负债表(百万元百万元)2020A 2021A 2022E 2023E 2024E 利润表利润表(百万元百万元)2020A 2021A 2022E 2023E 2024E 流动资产流动资产 15620 25280 29274 48123 60896 营业收入营业收入 6724 10356 21764 39804 65124 现金 3344 11385 10882 15921 19537 营业成本 5028 8429 18731 32726 53177 应收票据及应收账款 7014 6883 6794 15378 17280 营业税金及附加 43 75 160 286 459 其他应收款 135 265 576 962 1554 营业费用 266 330 653 1114 1693 预付账款 249 230 995 1378 2564 管理费用 398 569 1197 2030 3191 存货 3220 4488 7999 12455 17932 研发费用 499 644 1197 2110 3321 其他流动资产 1658 2029 2029 2029 2029 财务费用 312 335 293 611 1152 非流动资产非流动资产 12226 18333 23993 32940 44297 资产减值损失-135-198-100-100-100 长期投资 668 1033 1699 2464 3330 其他收益 393 559 559 559 559 固定资产 7160 8762 12361 18088 24997 公允价值变动收益 0-0 0 0 0 无形资产 1414 2286 2574 2917 3294 投资净收益 61 15 331 421 527 其他非流动资产 2984 6252 7358 9470 12677 资产处置收益 5 34 12 13 16 资产总计资产总计 27846 43613 53267 81063 105194 营业利润营业利润 168 39 235 1720 3031 流动负债流动负债 11897 18282 27629 53039 73417 营业外收入 10 17 8 8 8 短期借款 3252 5480 7824 20553 25302 营业外支出 11 8 9 10 10 应付票据及应付账款 7049 10235 16599 28467 42398 利润总额利润总额 166 48 234 1718 3029 其他流动负债 1596 2567 3205 4018 5717 所得税 20-29 16 118 208 非流动负债非流动负债 4874 5957 6213 7083 8076 净利润净利润 147 77 218 1600 2821 长期借款 3582 4877 5133 6002 6996 少数股东损益-3-25 0 0 0 其他非流动负债 1291 1080 1080 1080 1080 归属母公司净利润归属母公司净利润 150 102 218 1600 2821 负债合计负债合计 16770 24239 33841 60121 81494 EBITDA 1040 1057 1192 3319 5432 少数股东权益 169 597 597 597 597 EPS(元)0.08 0.06 0.12 0.90 1.59 股本 1281 1665 1665 1665 1665 资本公积 6231 13194 13194 13194 13194 主要财务比率主要财务比率 2020A 2021A 2022E 2023E 2024E 留存收益 3317 3562 3680 4442 5417 成长能力成长能力 归属母公司股东权益归属母公司股东权益 10906 18778 18829 20345 23103 营业收入(%)35.6 54.0 110.2 82.9 63.6 负债和股东权益负债和股东权益 27846 43613 53267 81063 105194 营业利润(%)184.8-76.6 500.1 631.9 76.2 归属于母公司净利润(%)192.0-31.9 113.7 634.7 76.3 获利能力获利能力 毛利率(%)25.2 18.6 13.9 17.8 18.3 净利率(%)2.2 0.7 1.0 4.0 4.3 现金流量表现金流量表(百万元百万元)2020A 2021A 2022E 2023E 2024E ROE(%)1.3 0.4 1.1 7.6 11.9 经营活动现金流经营活动现金流 685 1058 3483 1354 10996 ROIC(%)2.6 2.4 1.6 6.6 10.0 净利润 147 77 218 1600 2821 偿债能力偿债能力 折旧摊销 608 810 854 1245 1797 资产负债率(%)60.2 55.6 63.5 74.2 77.5 财务费用 312 335 293 611 1152 净负债比率(%)48.2 5.0 21.2 63.1 67.7 投资损失-61-15-331-421-527 流动比率 1.3 1.4 1.1 0.9 0.8 营运资金变动-571 185 2561-1567 5869 速动比率 1.0 1.1 0.7 0.6 0.5 其他经营现金流 251-334-112-113-116 营运能力营运能力 投资活动现金流投资活动现金流-2243-4185-6172-9757-12612 总资产周转率 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.6 0.7 资本支出 2094 4450 5849 9426 12289 应收账款周转率 1.1 1.6 3.5 4.0 4.5 长期投资-253 245-665-765-865 应付账款周转率 1.2 1.8 4.0 4.5 5.0 其他投资现金流 105 20 343 435 543 每股指标（元）每股指标（元）筹资活动现金流筹资活动现金流 1334 10132-1171 849 584 每股收益(最新摊薄)0.08 0.06 0.12 0.90 1.59 短期借款-610 2229 2344 12729 4749 每股经营现金流(最新摊薄)0.39 0.59 1.96 0.76 6.18 长期借款 393 1294 256 870 994 每股净资产(最新摊薄)6.13 10.56 10.58 11.44 12.99 普通股增加 144 384 0 0 0 估值比率估值比率 资本公积增加 1364 6963 0 0 0 P/E 358.0 525.9 246.1 33.5 19.0 其他筹资现金流 42-738-3771-12750-5159 P/B 4.9 2.9 2.8 2.6 2.3 现金净增加额现金净增加额-241 7002-3860-7554-1032 EV/EBITDA 53.1 48.9 46.0 19.2 12.3 公司深度报告公司深度报告 请务必参阅正文后面的信息披露和法律声明 28/30 数据来源：聚源、开源证券研究所 公司深度报告公司深度报告 请务必参阅正文后面的信息披露和法律声明 29/30 特别特别声明声明 证券期货投资者适当性管理办法、证券经营机构投资者适当性管理实施指引（试行）已于2017年7月1日起正式实施。根据上述规定，开源证券评定此研报的风险等级为R3（中风险），因此通过公共平台推送的研报其适用的投资者类别仅限定为专业投资者及风险承受能力为C3、C4、C5的普通投资者。若您并非专业投资者及风险承受能力为C3、C4、C5的普通投资者，请取消阅读，请勿收藏、接收或使用本研报中的任何信息。因此受限于访问权限的设置，若给您造成不便，烦请见谅！感谢您给予的理解与配合。分析师承诺分析师承诺 负责准备本报告以及撰写本报告的所有研究分析师或工作人员在此保证，本研究报告中关于任何发行商或证券所发表的观点均如实反映分析人员的个人观点。负责准备本报告的分析师获取报酬的评判因素包括研究的质量和准确性、客户的反馈、竞争性因素以及开源证券股份有限公司的整体收益。所有研究分析师或工作人员保证他们报酬的任何一部分不曾与，不与，也将不会与本报告中具体的推荐意见或观点有直接或间接的联系。股票投资评级说明股票投资评级说明 评级评级 说明说明 证券评级证券评级 买入（Buy）预计相对强于市场表现 20%以上；增持（outperform）预计相对强于市场表现 5 %；中性（Neutral）预计相对市场表现在5%5%之间波动；减持（underperform）预计相对弱于市场表现 5%以下。行业评级行业评级 看好（overweight）预计行业超越整体市场表现；中性（Neutral）预计行业与整体市场表现基本持平；看淡（underperform）预计行业弱于整体市场表现。备注：评级标准为以报告日后的 612 个月内，证券相对于市场基准指数的涨跌幅表现，其中 A 股基准指数为沪深 300 指数、港股基准指数为恒生指数、新三板基准指数为三板成指（针对协议转让标的）或三板做市指数（针对做市转让标的）、美股基准指数为标普 500 或纳斯达克综合指数。我们在此提醒您，不同证券研究机构采用不同的评级术语及评级标准。我们采用的是相对评级体系，表示投资的相对比重建议；投资者买入或者卖出证券的决定取决于个人的实际情况，比如当前的持仓结构以及其他需要考虑的因素。投资者应阅读整篇报告，以获取比较完整的观点与信息，不应仅仅依靠投资评级来推断结论。分析、估值方法的局限性说明分析、估值方法的局限性说明 本报告所包含的分析基于各种假设，不同假设可能导致分析结果出现重大不同。本报告采用的各种估值方法及模型均有其局限性，估值结果不保证所涉及证券能够在该价格交易。公司深度报告公司深度报告 请务必参阅正文后面的信息披露和法律声明 30/30 法律声明法律声明 开源证券股份有限公司是经中国证监会批准设立的证券经营机构，已具备证券投资咨询业务资格。本报告仅供开源证券股份有限公司（以下简称“本公司”）的机构或个人客户（以下简称“客户”）使用。本公司不会因接收人收到本报告而视其为客户。本报告是发送给开源证券客户的，属于商业秘密材料，只有开源证券客户才能参考或使用，如接收人并非开源证券客户，请及时退回并删除。本报告是基于本公司认为可靠的已公开信息，但本公司不保证该等信息的准确性或完整性。本报告所载的资料、工具、意见及推测只提供给客户作参考之用，并非作为或被视为出售或购买证券或其他金融工具的邀请或向人做出邀请。本报告所载的资料、意见及推测仅反映本公司于发布本报告当日的判断，本报告所指的证券或投资标的的价格、价值及投资收入可能会波动。在不同时期，本公司可发出与本报告所载资料、意见及推测不一致的报告。客户应当考虑到本公司可能存在可能影响本报告客观性的利益冲突，不应视本报告为做出投资决策的唯一因素。本报告中所指的投资及服务可能不适合个别客户，不构成客户私人咨询建议。本公司未确保本报告充分考虑到个别客户特殊的投资目标、财务状况或需要。本公司建议客户应考虑本报告的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况，以及（若有必要）咨询独立投资顾问。在任何情况下，本报告中的信息或所表述的意见并不构成对任何人的投资建议。在任何情况下，本公司不对任何人因使用本报告中的任何内容所引致的任何损失负任何责任。若本报告的接收人非本公司的客户，应在基于本报告做出任何投资决定或就本报告要求任何解释前咨询独立投资顾问。本报告可能附带其它网站的地址或超级链接，对于可能涉及的开源证券网站以外的地址或超级链接，开源证券不对其内容负责。本报告提供这些地址或超级链接的目的纯粹是为了客户使用方便，链接网站的内容不构成本报告的任何部分，客户需自行承担浏览这些网站的费用或风险。开源证券在法律允许的情况下可参与、投资或持有本报告涉及的证券或进行证券交易，或向本报告涉及的公司提供或争取提供包括投资银行业务在内的服务或业务支持。开源证券可能与本报告涉及的公司之间存在业务关系，并无需事先或在获得业务关系后通知客户。本报告的版权归本公司所有。本公司对本报告保留一切权利。除非另有书面显示，否则本报告中的所有材料的版权均属本公司。未经本公司事先书面授权，本报告的任何部分均不得以任何方式制作任何形式的拷贝、复印件或复制品，或再次分发给任何其他人，或以任何侵犯本公司版权的其他方式使用。所有本报告中使用的商标、服务标记及标记均为本公司的商标、服务标记及标记。开开源证券源证券研究所研究所 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证券行业深度：全面注册制打开券商业务发展空间-230323（21页）.pdf

敬请阅读末页之重要声明 全面注册制打开全面注册制打开券商业务券商业务发展空间发展空间 相关研究：相关研究：1.金融监管体系进一步完善，新发基金逐步回暖 2023.3.13 行业评级：行业评级：增持增持 近十二个月行业表现近十二个月行业表现%1 个月 3 个月 12 个月 相对收益-2 0-1 绝对收益-4 5-6 注：相对收益与沪深 300 相比 分析师：分析师：张智珑 证书编号：证书编号：S0500521120002 Tel：021-50295363 Email： 地址：地址：上海市浦东新区银城路88号中国人寿金融中心10楼 核心要点：核心要点：全面全面注册制注册制推动资本市场发展，市场包容性及市场化程度进一步提升推动资本市场发展，市场包容性及市场化程度进一步提升 注册制改革对我国资本市场意义重大，有利于提高直接融资比重，服务实体经济高质量发展。注册制下的制度规则主要有四个看点：（1）明确各板块定位，突出多层次资本市场特色；（2）主板上市条件放宽，审核流程优化，未来 IPO 发行将进入常态化；（3）新股定价市场化促进价格回归价值，投资者报价将趋于理性，优质公司更具定价能力，券商的研究、定价、承销能力重要性提升；（4）退市制度逐步完善，市场“优胜劣汰”有望加快。投行业务投行业务增量空间打开，重资本属性增强增量空间打开，重资本属性增强 注册制推动 IPO 规模增长，拉动投行业务收入稳定增长，收入贡献占比提升。头部券商的投行业务优势显著，竞争格局优化。上市券商 2022 前三季投行业务净收入的 CR5、CR10 分别为 52%、71%，较 2018 年末显著提升。跟投机制赋予投行业务重资本属性，券商一方面能够获取跟投收益提高资金运用效率，另一方面也面临业绩波动风险。此外，新股破发概率上升加大券商包销压力，更加考验券商的定价能力和资金实力。市场扩容及机制优化利好经纪业务，供需两端市场扩容及机制优化利好经纪业务，供需两端扩容扩容推动财富管理发展推动财富管理发展 经纪业务方面，由于 IPO 规模增加，市场流通市值增加，在换手率保持稳定的情况下成交量稳步提升。此外，两融规模一方面伴随市场交投活跃度而提升；另一方面，注册制下股票自上市首日起即可作为融资融券标的，并且战略投资者可出借证券，融券券源范围扩大，促进两融及转融通业务发展。财富管理方面，从需求端看，居民财富向权益类资产迁移推动财富管理业务发展，我国股市机构化进程逐步加快。2019 年以来公募基金规模保持高速增长，机构投资者持股市值占比也不断提高，其中投资基金 2021 年末的持股市值占比达 7%，较 2018 年末提升约 4pct。从供给端看，注册制下权益市场不断扩容，上市公司数量增加，相关配套制度完善也有利于提升上市公司质量，权益市场吸引力不断增强。当然，随着市场供应增加、定价市场化加深，对公司投资价值的判断显得尤为重要，从而加大了投资标的选择难度，特别是对个人投资者的专业要求更高，通过标准化的金融产品入市将是更好的选择。投资建议投资建议 全面注册制改革正式落地，资本市场将持续扩容。注册制下券商各项业务将迎来增量空间，特别是投行业务最为受益，承销保荐收入稳定增长，跟投机制也增厚券商收入，但对券商资金实力和定价能力提出更高要求。目前券商板块估值仍处于历史底部区域，安全边际较高。建议关注投行业务和财富管理业务两条投资主线，维持行业“增持”评级。风险提示风险提示 经济复苏不及预期；注册制实行不及预期；行业竞争加剧；行业监管政策收紧。-20%-10%0 22/3/232022/5/232022/7/232022/9/232022/11/232023/1/232023/3/23沪深300证券(申万)证券研究报告证券研究报告 20202 23 3 年年 0 03 3 月月 2 23 3 日日 湘财证券研究所湘财证券研究所 行业研究行业研究 证券证券行业深度行业深度 1 行业研究 敬请阅读末页之重要声明 正文目录 1 注册制改革推动资本市场发展.3 1.1 我国股票发行制度改革历程.3 1.2 制度规则的主要变化及影响.6 2 注册制改革打开证券行业发展空间.10 2.1 投行业务：增量空间打开，重资本属性增强.10 2.2 经纪业务：成交量增加，融券范围扩大.16 2.3 财富管理：投资标的丰富，财富管理需求增加.17 3 投资建议.19 4 风险提示.19 图表目录 图 1 各国证券化率（上市公司总市值/GDP 比重）.6 图 2 我国直接融资及占比（万亿元，%）.6 图 3 A 股各板块市值（亿元）.6 图 4 各板块股票发行上市条件对比（未列出红筹企业、有表决权差异公司上市条件）.8 图 5 新股上市首日破发数量.9 图 6 我国上市公司退市数量（包括 A、B 股）.10 图 7 美国上市公司退市数量.10 图 8 A 股 IPO 募资金额（单位：亿元）.10 图 9 A 股 IPO 公司数量.10 图 10 证券行业投行业务收入（含财务顾问收入）.11 图 11 投行业务收入占比.11 图 12 2022 前三季度投行业务收入前 10 上市券商市场份额及行业集中度.11 图 13 2022 年 IPO 规模及家数市占率.12 图 14 上市券商投行收入占比及 IPO 储备数量.12 图 15 保荐代表人数量.13 图 16 头部券商保荐代表人数量.13 图 17 科创板保荐机构跟投浮盈及收益率（亿元，%）.14 图 18 科创板公司平均发行 PE 及首日涨跌幅.14 图 19 上市券商科创板跟投浮盈浮亏（单位：亿元）.15 图 20 各板块 IPO 项目券商包销金额（单位：万元）.15 图 21 科创板流通市值和换手率（亿元，%）.16 图 22 科创板每日成交金额（亿元）.16 图 23 沪深两市每月日均股基成交额（亿元）.16 图 24 两融规模与沪深股票成交金额（亿元）.17 图 25 两融规模及融券余额占比（亿元，%）.17 图 26 转融通余额（亿元）.17 图 27 公募基金净值（单位：亿元）.18 图 28 机构投资者持股市值占比（%）.18 fYeZcWdXaVaVbZaYbRcM6MmOrRsQpMkPrRnOiNsQxP9PnNwPMYmOsNNZnPtQ 2 行业研究 敬请阅读末页之重要声明 表 1 我国股票发行制度改革历程.4 表 2 全面注册制改制的重要事件.5 表 3 我国资本市场各板块定位.7 表 4 各板块跟投制度比较.13 表 5 已获得公募基金牌照的券商及资管子公司.18 3 行业研究 敬请阅读末页之重要声明 1 注册制改革注册制改革推动资本市场发展推动资本市场发展 1.1 我国股票发行制度改革历程我国股票发行制度改革历程 从全球范围来看，股票发行制度主要包括三种：审批制、核准制和注册制，每一种制度对应着市场的不同发展阶段。我国自 1990 年末成立股票市场以来，经历了由审批制到核准制，再到注册制的改革历程。1990-2000 年年：强行政干预下的：强行政干预下的审批制审批制。审批制是完全计划发行的模式，由于在股票市场发展初期的发行人、投资者、中介机构等市场参与主体尚不成熟，为维护股票市场平稳发展和平衡复杂的社会经济关系，采用行政计划的办法分配股票发行的指标和额度，地方或行业主管部门负责根据指标推荐企业发行股票。审批制分为两个阶段：1990-1995 年期间以“总量控制”为主，即发行规模由国家计委和国务院证券委共同确定，省级政府或行业主管部门在指标额度内推荐企业。1996-2000 年实行“总量控制，限报家数”，即证监会在确定的总规模内，根据市场情况向各地区、各部门下达发行企业个数。由于审批制下公司发行股票取决于发行指标和额度，监管部门通过行政权力行使实质性审批职能，较大程度的行政干预导致了严重的寻租现象，而且在经济发展和转型的背景下难以满足企业融资及市场化发展的需要。2001-2022 年：年：由审批制由审批制转转向向更加更加市场化的市场化的核准制。核准制。核准制一方面取消了指标和额度管理，并引进证券中介机构的责任，由中介机构判断企业是否达到股票发行条件。另一方面，监管机构对股票发行的合规性和适销性进行实质性审查，并有权否决不符合规定条件的发行申请。我国的核准制分为两个阶段，初期是 2001-2004 年实行的通道制，由监管部门根据各证券公司实力和业绩事先确定发行股票通道数量，证券公司按照“发行一家、再报一家”的原则推荐企业，即“自行排队，限报家数”。尽管核准制的行政干预较审批制明显下降，但排队机制弱化了券商通道数量上的差别，实力较强的券商只能与实力较弱的券商一同排队，行业竞争效率低。此后，证监会于 2003 年 12 月发布 证券发行上市保荐制度暂行办法，2004 年 2 月开始实行保荐制，2005 年 1 月通道制才正式废除。在保荐制下，股票发行上市需保荐机构进行保荐，保荐机构、保荐人及其他中介机构对发行人进行尽职调查，对其资料进行审慎核查，并对相关文件的真实性、准确性、完整性负连带责任。不过，核准制下监管机构对于股票发行仍有实质审核权，通过实质审核对发行人披露文件的真实性和发行人的质量进行实质判断，这一方面可以使投资者受到双重保障，但另一方面也意味着监管部门在 4 行业研究 敬请阅读末页之重要声明 上市公司质量发生问题时也需承担责任，导致保荐人及其他参与主体的责任落实不够明确。表表 1 我国股票发行制度改革历程我国股票发行制度改革历程 审批制审批制 核准制核准制 注册制注册制 实行时间实行时间 1990-2000 年年 2001-2022 年年 2018 年年开启试点开启试点 改革历程改革历程及各阶段及各阶段特征特征 1990-1995年：“总量控制”年：“总量控制”发行额度由国家计委和国务院证券委共同确定，并将额度指标下达至省级政府或行业主管部门，由其在指标限度内推荐企业。1996-2000年：“总量控制，年：“总量控制，限报家数”限报家数”证监会在确定的总规模内，根据市场情况向各地区、各部门下达发行企业个数，并对企业进行审核。2001-2004 年：通道制年：通道制“证券公司自行排队，限报家数”，由监管部门根据各证券公司实力和业绩事先确定发行股票通道数量，证券公司按照“发行一家、再报一家”的原则推荐企业，具有主承销资格的券商拥有通道数量最多 8 条，最少 2 条。用于核准制初期，于 2005 年 1 月 1 日废止。2004 年年 2 月之后：保荐制月之后：保荐制 2003 年 12 月证监会发布 证券发行上市保荐制度暂行办法。企业发行上市需保荐机构进行保荐，由保荐人负责保荐工作。保荐机构、保荐人及其他中介机构应尽职调查，对发行人的资料进行审慎核查，并对相关文件的真实性、准确性、完整性负连带责任。注册制改革的本质是把选择权交给市场，强化市场约束和法治约束。2013 年 11 月：党的十八届三中全会提出“推进股票发行注册制改革”；2018 年 11 月：设立科创板并设立科创板并试点注册制；试点注册制；2019 年 12 月：审议通过的新证券法明确全面推行注册制；2020 年 4 月：创业板注册制创业板注册制改革；改革；2021 年 9 月：设立北交所并设立北交所并实行注册制；实行注册制；2023 年年 2 月：月：全面注册制正全面注册制正式式落地落地 推荐人推荐人 政府或行业主管部门 中介机构 中介机构 审核参与审核参与主体主体 证监会进行实质审核 证监会、中介机构、交易所分担实质审核职责 中介机构、交易所审核，证监会注册 上市标准上市标准 计划发行上市 财务指标（注重盈利能力）多套上市标准 存在问题存在问题 行政干预强，存在寻租现象。监管部门凭借行政权力行使实质性审批职能，而中介机构职能是进行技术指导。排队机制弱化了券商通道数量上的差别，市场竞争效率低。参与主体的责任不够明确，保荐制的效果无法完全体现。-资料来源：中国政府网，证监会，湘财证券研究所 2018 年至今：注册制年至今：注册制试点逐步推开，试点逐步推开，遵循遵循试点先行、先增量后存量、逐试点先行、先增量后存量、逐步推开的步推开的改革路径改革路径，全面注册制全面注册制条件已经具备条件已经具备。注册制是在市场化程度较高的成熟股票市场普遍采用的发行制度，其强调以信息披露为核心，压实发行人、中介机构、交易所等各层面责任。其中监管机构的职责是对申报文件的真实性、准确性、完整性和及时性做合规性的形式审查，中介机构对发行人的质量负责。从改革历程看，我国最初在 2013 年 11 月党的十八届三中全会提出了“推进股票发行注册制改革”，历经 5 年探索，2018 年 11 月宣布设立科创板并正 5 行业研究 敬请阅读末页之重要声明 式开启注册制试点，2019 年 12 月新证券法又正式明确要全面推行注册制，此时相关法律及配套制度基本形成。接下来 2020 年 4 月进行创业板注册制改革，2021 年 9 月设立北交所并实行注册制，并且 2022 政府工作报告也首次提出“全面实行股票发行注册制”，全面注册制改革步伐不断加快，最终于 2023 年 2 月正式落地。表表 2 全面注册制改制的重要事件全面注册制改制的重要事件 时间时间 主要内容主要内容 2013.11 十八届三中全会提出“推进股票发行注册制改革”2018.11 设立科创板并试点注册制 2019.12 十三届全国人大常委会第十五次会议审议通过新证券法，明确全面推行注册制 2020.4 中央全面深化改革委员会第十三次会议审议通过创业板改革并试点注册制总体实施方案 2020.8 创业板改革并试点注册制平稳落地 2020.10 十九届五中全会提出“全面实行股票发行注册制，建立常态化退市机制，提高直接融资比重”2021.9 设立北京证券交易所并试点注册制 2021.12 中央经济工作会议提出“抓好要素市场化配置综合改革试点，全面实行股票发行注册制”2022.3 政府工作报告首次提出“全面实行股票发行注册制”2022.8 易会满在求是发文强调“全面实行股票发行注册制的条件已基本具备，以“绣花”功夫做好规则、业务和技术等各项准备”2022.11 易会满在金融街论坛指出“深入推进股票发行注册制改革”2022.12 证监会党委会中提到“深入推进股票发行注册制改革，突出把选择权交给市场这个本质，放管结合，提升资源配置效率。”2023.2 全面实行股票发行注册制制度规则发布实施全面实行股票发行注册制制度规则发布实施 资料来源：中国政府网，证监会，湘财证券研究所 实行实行注册制注册制对我国资本市场意义重大，有利于对我国资本市场意义重大，有利于提高直接融资比重提高直接融资比重，服务服务实体实体经济经济高质量高质量发展发展。具体而言，直接融资有利于降低企业融资成本，特别是我国目前正处于经济转型阶段，亟需拓宽科技创新企业的融资渠道。相较于发达国家，我国直接融资占比仍有较大提升空间。根据世界银行数据，2020年末中国、美国、日本和新加坡的证券化率分别为 83%、194%、135%、192%。若根据 2022 年末我国上市公司总市值占GDP比重计算，证券化率仅有 65%。从社融口径来看，2023 年 2 月末我国直接融资规模存量（包括股票、企业债、政府债）达到 103 万亿元，较 2018 年末提升 43 万亿元，直接融资比重从 27%提升至 29%，占比仍然较低。注册制可以增强资本市场包容性，提升企业上市效率，更好地服务实体经济发展。注册制试点以来，科创板和创业板注册制试点以来，科创板和创业板成为成为资本市场主要增量资本市场主要增量来源来源。从市值来看，2022 年末科创板和创业板占 A 股市值比重分别为 7.4%、14.3%，较 2019年的 1.7%、12.4%分别提升 6pct、2pct。6 行业研究 敬请阅读末页之重要声明 图图 1 各国证券化率（上市公司总市值各国证券化率（上市公司总市值/GDP 比重）比重）资料来源：世界银行，湘财证券研究所 图图 2 我国直接融资及占比（万亿元，我国直接融资及占比（万亿元，%）资料来源：Wind，湘财证券研究所 图图 3 A 股各板块市值（亿元）股各板块市值（亿元）资料来源：Wind，湘财证券研究所 1.2 制度规则的主要变化及影响制度规则的主要变化及影响 注册制试点以来资本市场制度体系不断完善，2023 年 2 月 17 日证监会正式发布全面实行注册制的制度规则，证券交易所、全国股转公司、中国结算等也同步发布相关配套制度。从 2 月 1 日的征求意见稿到正式发布仅用时半个月，实施进度较科创板和创业板明显加快，由此可看出实行全面注册制的条件已经比较成熟，而且推出的迫切性也较强。尽管市场对全面实行注册制来带的影响褒贬不一，但我们认为此次发布的制度规则涵盖发行条件、注册程序、保荐承销、重大资产重组、监管执法、投资者保护等各个方面，进一步完善了资本市场的制度体系，有利于加快资本市场的市场化进程。145.9 164.4 147.7 158.1 194.5 99.0 126.2 105.2 120.2 135.0 200.9 229.3 182.8 186.2 191.9 65.2 70.8 45.5 59.6 83.0 05010015020025020162017201820192020美国日本新加坡中国22#$%&()0101001502002503003504002017-012017-032017-052017-072017-092017-112018-012018-032018-052018-072018-092018-112019-012019-032019-052019-072019-092019-112020-012020-032020-052020-072020-092020-112021-012021-032021-052021-072021-092021-112022-012022-032022-052022-072022-092022-112023-01直接融资间接融资其他直接融资占比0100,000200,000300,000400,000500,000600,000700,000800,000900,0001,000,00020122013201420152016201720182019202020212022上证主板深证主板科创板创业板北交所 7 行业研究 敬请阅读末页之重要声明 1.2.1 明确明确定位：定位：各各板块板块定位定位鲜明鲜明，突出多层次资本市场特色，突出多层次资本市场特色 注册制进一步完善我国多层次资本市场注册制进一步完善我国多层次资本市场体系体系，发行人首次公开发行股票发行人首次公开发行股票上市上市需需符合各板块定位。符合各板块定位。首先，主板突出“大盘蓝筹”特色，重点支持业务模式成熟、经营业绩稳定、规模较大、具有行业代表性的优质企业。其次，科创板突出“硬科技”特色，优先支持符合国家战略，拥有关键核心技术，科技创新能力突出，主要依靠核心技术开展生产经营，具有稳定的商业模式，市场认可度高，社会形象良好，具有较强成长性的企业。再次，创业板主要服务成长型创新创业企业，支持传统产业与新技术、新产业、新业态、新模式深度融合。最后，北交所定位是“专精特新”，主要服务创新型中小企业。表表 3 我国资本市场我国资本市场各板块定位各板块定位 主板主板 科创板科创板 创业板创业板 北交所北交所 突出“大盘蓝筹”“大盘蓝筹”特色，重点支持业务模式成熟、经营业绩稳定、规模较大、具有行业代表性的优质企业。优先支持符合国家战略，拥符合国家战略，拥有关键核心技术，科技创新有关键核心技术，科技创新能力突出，主要依靠核心技能力突出，主要依靠核心技术开展生产经营术开展生产经营，具有稳定的商业模式，市场认可度高，社会形象良好，具有较强成长性的企业。主要服务成长型创新创成长型创新创业企业业企业，支持传统产业与新技术、新产业、新业态、新模式深度融合。聚焦实体经济，主要服务创新型中小企业创新型中小企业，重点支持先进制造业和现代服务业等领域的企业，推动传统产业转型升级，培育经济发展新动能，促进经济高质量发展。资料来源：证监会，北交所官网，湘财证券研究所 1.2.2 上市条件：上市条件：主板主板上市条件上市条件包容多包容多元元，上市审核流程优化，上市审核流程优化 主板主板注册制注册制改革改革最大的最大的看点看点在于放宽了在于放宽了上市上市条件，条件，与与科创板和创业板科创板和创业板采采用了较为统一的上市指标体系，提升了资本市场包容性用了较为统一的上市指标体系，提升了资本市场包容性。具体来看，审核制下的主板只关注公司的盈利能力，但注册制关注更多的维度，在此前净利润、经营现金流及营业收入等财务指标基础上引入了市值指标，从原有的 1 套上市标准增加到了 3 套，并且取消了最近一期末“无形资产占净资产比例”及“不存在未弥补亏损”的规定。此外，注册制下明确允许红筹企业及有表决权差异安排的企业在主板上市，并制定了相关上市标准。总体来看，各板块的上市指标体系趋于统一，但各板块之间上市条件也形成了明显的差异化。8 行业研究 敬请阅读末页之重要声明 图图 4 各板块股票发行上市条件对比（未列出红筹企业、有表决权差异公司上市条件）各板块股票发行上市条件对比（未列出红筹企业、有表决权差异公司上市条件）资料来源：证监会，上交所，深交所，北交所，湘财证券研究所制作 注册制明晰注册制明晰审核职责，审核职责，提升流程透明度，提升流程透明度，提高上市效率。提高上市效率。交易所承担全面审核判断企业是否符合发行条件、上市条件和信息披露要求的责任，并形成审核意见。证监会对发行人是否符合国家产业政策和板块定位进行把关，并基于交易所审核意见依法履行注册程序，在 20 个工作日内对发行人的注册申请作出是否同意注册的决定。证监会的注册决定自作出之日起1年内有效，发行人应当在注册决定有效期内发行股票，发行时点由发行人自主选择。上市审核流程的各节点均有明确时间规定，根据上交所发布的上海证券交易所股票发行上市审核规则，自交易所受理上市申请文件到证监会注册时间总计不超过 3 个月，发行人及保荐人回复问询时间不超过 3 个月。审核注册的效率和可预期性显著提高，未来 IPO 发行将进入常态化。主板（核准制）主板（核准制）主板（注册制）主板（注册制）科创板科创板创业板创业板北交所北交所财务指标财务指标标准一标准一利润、现金流、营收利润、现金流、营收净利润、现金流、营收净利润、现金流、营收市值、净利润、营收市值、净利润、营收净利润净利润市值、净利润、ROE市值、净利润、ROE最近3个会计年度净利润均为正数且累计超过人民币3000万元，净利润以扣除非经常性损益前后较低者为计算依据；最近3个会计年度经营活动产生的现金流量净额累计超过人民币5000万元；或者最近3个会计年度营业收入累计超过人民币3亿元；最近一期末无形资产（扣除土地使用权、水面养殖权和采矿权等后）占净资产的比例不高于20%；最近一期末不存在未弥补亏损。最近3年净利润均为正，且最近3年净利润累计不低于1.5亿元，最近一年净利润不低于6000万元，最近3年经营活动产生的现金流量净额累计不低于1亿元或营业收入累计不低于10亿元。预计市值不低于10亿元，最近两年净利润均为正且累计净利润不低于5000万元；或者预计市值不低于10亿元，最近一年净利润为正且营业收入不低于1亿元；最近两年净利润均为正，且累计净利润不低于 5000万元。预计市值不低于2亿元，最近两年净利润均不低于1500万元且加权平均净资产收益率平均不低于8%；或者最近一年净利润不低于2500万元且加权平均净资产收益率不低于8%。标准二标准二市值、净利润、现金流、营收市值、净利润、现金流、营收市值、营收、研发市值、营收、研发市值、净利润、营收市值、净利润、营收市值、营收及增速、现金流市值、营收及增速、现金流预计市值不低于50亿元，且最近一年净利润为正，最近一年营业收入不低于6亿元，最近3年经营活动产生的现金流量净额累计不低于1.5亿元。预计市值不低于15亿元，最近一年营业收入不低于2亿元，且最近三年累计研发投入占最近三年累计营业收入的比例不低于15%。预计市值不低于 10 亿元，最近一年净利润为正且营业收入不低于 1亿元。预计市值不低于4亿元，最近两年营业收入平均不低于1亿元，且最近一年营业收入增长率不低于30%，最近一年经营活动产生的现金流量净额为正；标准三标准三市值、净利润、营收市值、净利润、营收市值、营收、现金流市值、营收、现金流市值、营收市值、营收市值、营收、研发市值、营收、研发预计市值不低于80亿元，且最近一年净利润为正，最近一年营业收入不低于8亿元预计市值不低于20亿元，最近一年营业收入不低于3亿元，且最近三年经营活动产生的现金流量净额累计不低于1亿元。预计市值不低于 50 亿元，且最近一年营业收入不低于 3 亿元。预计市值不低于8亿元，最近一年营业收入不低于2亿元，最近两年研发投入合计占最近两年营业收入合计比例不低于8%。标准四标准四市值、营收市值、营收市值、研发市值、研发预计市值不低于30亿元，且最近一年营业收入不低于3亿元。预计市值不低于15亿元，最近两年研发投入合计不低于5000万元。标准五标准五市值、业务特征市值、业务特征预计市值不低于40亿元，主要业务或产品需经国家有关部门批准，市场空间大，目前已取得阶段性成果。医药行业企业需至少有一项核心产品获准开展二期临床试验，其他符合科创板定位的企业需具备明显的技术优势并满足相应条件。股本要求股本要求发行前：发行前：股本总额不少于人民币3000万元；发行后：发行后：（1）公司股本总额不少于人民币5000万元；（2）公开发行的股份达到公司股份总数的25%以上；公司股本总额超过人民币4亿元的，公开发行股份的比例达到10%以上；发行后：发行后：（1）股本总额不低于5000万元；（2）公开发行的股份达到公司股份总数的25%以上；公司股本总额超过4亿元的，公开发行股份的比例为10%以上；发行后：发行后：（1）股本总额不低于3000万元；（2）公开发行的股份达到公司股份总数的25%以上；公司股本总额超过4亿元的，公开发行股份的比例为10%以上；发行后：发行后：（1）股本总额不低于3000万元；（2）公开发行的股份达到公司股份总数的25%以上；公司股本总额超过4亿元的，公开发行股份的比例为10%以上；（1）最近一年期末净资产不低于5000万元；（2）公开发行的股份不少于100万股，发行对象不少于100人；（3）公开发行后，公司股本总额不少于3000万元；（4）公开发行后，公司股东人数不少于200人，公众股东持股比例不低于公司股本总额的25%；公司股本总额超过4亿元的，公众股东持股比例不低于公司股本总额的10%；9 行业研究 敬请阅读末页之重要声明 1.2.3 定价机制：定价机制：发行定价发行定价市场化市场化，打新更考验打新更考验研究研究能力能力 新股发行价格、规模主要通过市场化方式决定，最大变化是主板新股定新股发行价格、规模主要通过市场化方式决定，最大变化是主板新股定价价取消取消 23 倍市盈率上限倍市盈率上限，促进新股合理定价，促进新股合理定价。发行规模较小的企业，继续保留直接定价，新增定价参考上限。在原有的网下投资者中增加期货公司作为专业机构投资者，同时主板上市的还要向其他法人和组织、个人投资者询价，对中小投资者利益的重视程度提升。此外，新的交易制度规定主板新股上市前 5 个交易日不设涨跌幅限制，第 6 个交易日起继续保持 10%涨跌幅限制，同时优化盘中临时停牌制度。这也将加速新股价格回归价值，提高定价效率。定价机制市场化定价机制市场化增加了新股破发概率，增加了新股破发概率，对市场参与主体均有影响对市场参与主体均有影响。注册制试点以来新股上市首日破发数量增加，尤其是 22 年行情低迷叠加新股定价新规影响，破发达到 121 家。从投资者角度看，定价机制和交易制度修改后对投资者的研究水平要求更高，报价需更加理性，关注公司价值。定价过高将增加破发概率，影响打新收益率。从上市公司角度看，注册制改革下市场供给增加、信息披露质量要求提高，定价市场化更有利于增强优质公司的定价能力，缩小一二级市场价差，更好地发挥资本市场的价值发现作用。从中介机构角度看，注册制下对券商的项目筛选、询价定价、承销、研究能力要求更高。定价过高有发行失败风险，而且包销制度下需被动投资遭弃购的新股，增加资金压力，另外还需要承担跟投浮亏。图图 5 新股上市首日破发数量新股上市首日破发数量 资料来源：Wind，湘财证券研究所 1.2.4 退市机制：退市机制：退市制度逐步完善退市制度逐步完善，“优胜劣汰”有望加快“优胜劣汰”有望加快 退市退市指标体系逐步指标体系逐步完善，退市率完善，退市率显著显著上升。上升。注册制下上市公司数量增加，壳资源稀缺性下降，需配合常态化的退市机制形成“有进有出”的良性循环，保持资本市场健康发展。2022 年 1 月沪深交易所修订发布了新的退市相关业务规则，构建了交易类、财务类、规范类和重大违法类等四类强制退市指标，此次注册制改革下的退市规则与之前基本保持一致。322221210%5 %004060801001201402019202020212022上市首日破发家数破发率 10 行业研究 敬请阅读末页之重要声明 随着退市制度完善，我国退市公司数量和退市率从 2018 年的 6 家和 0.17%增加至 2022 年的 50 家和 1.02%。不过，美国股票市场过去 5 年的平均退市率达到 7%左右，因此我国仍需严格执行退市制度，优化退市流程，加快资本市场“优胜劣汰”。图图 6 我国上市公司退市数量（包括我国上市公司退市数量（包括 A、B 股）股）资料来源：Wind，湘财证券研究所 图图 7 美国上市公司退市数量美国上市公司退市数量 资料来源：Wind，湘财证券研究所 2 注册制改革打开证券行业发展空间注册制改革打开证券行业发展空间 2.1 投行业务：增量空间投行业务：增量空间打开打开，重资本属性增强重资本属性增强 注册制下注册制下 IPO 发行发行常态化常态化，IPO 募资募资规模规模和家数和家数显著增加显著增加。2019 年科创板试点注册制以来，IPO规模占全市场比重从19年的33%提升至22年的43%，22 年末 IPO 项目数量占比接近 30%。从创业板看，2020 年 8 月正式开启注册制后，IPO 规模占比从 19 年的 12%提升至 22 年的 31%，IPO 项目数量占比达 35%。IPO 发行加快拉动发行加快拉动投行业务收入投行业务收入稳定稳定增长，增长，收入收入贡献占比提升贡献占比提升。2019-2022 前三季度证券行业投行业务收入同比增速分别达 30%、 39%、 4%、 6%，在股市大幅下行的 2022 年仍然贡献了正增长。2022 前三季度投行业务收入达 492 亿元，占收入比重为 16%，较 2018 年末提高 2.3pct。图图 8 A 股股 IPO 募资金额（单位：亿元）募资金额（单位：亿元）资料来源：Wind，湘财证券研究所 图图 9 A 股股 IPO 公司数量公司数量 资料来源：Wind，湘财证券研究所 0.0%0.2%0.4%0.6%0.8%1.0%1.2020304050602001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022退市家数退市率0.0%2.0%4.0%6.0%8.0.0.0.0.000200300400500600700201420152016201720182019202020212022退市家数退市率01000200030004000500060007000201120122013201420152016201720182019202020212022科创板创业板北交所沪深主板0100200300400500600201120122013201420152016201720182019202020212022科创板创业板北交所沪深主板 11 行业研究 敬请阅读末页之重要声明 图图 10 证券行业投行业务收入（含证券行业投行业务收入（含财务顾问财务顾问收入）收入）资料来源：证券业协会，湘财证券研究所 图图 11 投行业务收入占比投行业务收入占比 资料来源：证券业协会，湘财证券研究所 头部集中趋势明显，头部集中趋势明显，行业竞争格局优化行业竞争格局优化。从上市券商来看，2022 前三季投行业务净收入的 CR5、CR10 分别为 52%、71%，相较于注册制试点前的2018 年分别提升 7.1pct、9.6pct，尤其在 2020 年之后显著提高，向头部集中的趋势愈加明显，前 3 家券商的市场份额均达到 10%以上。从 IPO 市占率来看，2022 年中信证券、中信建投、中金公司、海通证券和华泰证券 5 家券商的 IPO 规模市占率共计 58%，IPO 项目数量也占据了 39%的份额，龙头优势明显。不过，市占率靠前的券商中也出现了中小券商的身影，其 22Q3 投行收入占比较高，增速较快。此外，可以看到头部券商 IPO项目储备充足，大幅领先于同行，IPO 常态化将为投行业务收入增长带来更大确定性。图图 12 2022 前三季度前三季度投行业务收入前投行业务收入前 10 上市券商市场份额及行业集中度上市券商市场份额及行业集中度 资料来源：Wind，湘财证券研究所 -40%-20%0 000200300400500600700800201420152016201720182019202020212022Q3投行业务收入（亿元）YoY0.0%5.0.0.0 .0%.0 152016201720182019202020212022Q3公司名称公司名称201820182019201920202020202120212022Q32022Q3较2018年变化较2018年变化中信证券中信证券10.7.7.8.1.6%3.8%中金公司中金公司9.4.2.2.3.8%1.5%中信建投中信建投9.3%8.8.0%9.1.6%1.4%海通证券海通证券9.5%8.3%8.5%7.9%8.7%-0.8%国泰君安国泰君安5.9%6.2%6.4%6.5%7.1%1.2%华泰证券华泰证券5.8%4.7%6.2%7.0%6.8%1.0%申万宏源申万宏源2.6%2.8%2.4%2.9%3.2%0.6%国金证券国金证券2.1%2.2%2.9%2.9%3.2%1.1%东方证券东方证券3.4%2.5%2.7%2.7%3.2%-0.2%国信证券国信证券3.2%3.4%3.2%3.2%3.1%-0.1%CR5CR544.8D.8D.1D.1F.9F.9H.0H.0Q.9Q.9%7.1%7.1%CR10CR1061.8a.8Y.6Y.6d.4d.4f.7f.7q.4q.4%9.6%9.6 行业研究 敬请阅读末页之重要声明 图图 13 2022 年年 IPO 规模及家数市占率规模及家数市占率 资料来源：Wind，湘财证券研究所 图图 14 上市券商投行收入占比及上市券商投行收入占比及 IPO 储备数量储备数量 资料来源：Wind，湘财证券研究所 注：投行收入占比=投行收入/（营业收入-其他业务成本）注册制注册制下券商继续加大投行人员投入，下券商继续加大投行人员投入，保荐人数量持续增长，头部券商保荐人数量持续增长，头部券商夯实竞争优势。夯实竞争优势。注册制试点以来，证券行业保荐代表人数量从 2019 年末的3806人增长至2022年末的7798人，占从业人员比重从1.12%提升至2.2%。头部券商保荐人数量也迅速扩张，中信证券、中信建投和中金公司保荐代表人数量领先于行业。051015202530IPO规模市占率IPO家数市占率公司公司22Q3投行收入占比22Q3投行收入占比22Q3投行收入同比22Q3投行收入同比 2022年IPO规模市占率2022年IPO规模市占率 2022年IPO数量市占率2022年IPO数量市占率 IPO项目储备数量IPO项目储备数量中信证券中信证券14.5.1$.1.93中信建投中信建投27.11.6.7%8.9海通证券海通证券22.8%8.8%6.7%6.3p国泰君安国泰君安15.6(.6%5.7%6.7P华泰证券华泰证券13.9%9.4%6.1%5.2U中金公司中金公司24.0.7.3%6.9I国金证券国金证券33.82.4%1.8%2.6A招商证券招商证券7.8%-13.5%1.9%1.59国信证券国信证券11.9%0.2%2.7%3.3(东吴证券东吴证券19.8!.0%1.1%2.2#申万宏源申万宏源10.8.7%2.4%3.7长江证券长江证券10.8%-34.4%1.6%2.6光大证券光大证券12.6%-29.5%1.9%1.7中泰证券中泰证券12.6%-27.5%0.7%1.7东方证券东方证券15.3.8%1.4%1.7财通证券财通证券9.6%-25.4%0.2%0.9广发证券广发证券2.7(.6%0.6%1.3兴业证券兴业证券11.4%-24.4%0.9%1.5东兴证券东兴证券35.9.0%2.3%1.7 13 行业研究 敬请阅读末页之重要声明 图图 15 保荐代表人数量保荐代表人数量 资料来源：Wind，证券业协会，湘财证券研究所 图图 16 头部券商保荐代表人数量头部券商保荐代表人数量 资料来源：Wind，证券业协会，湘财证券研究所 注册制引入跟投机制，赋予投行业务重资本属性注册制引入跟投机制，赋予投行业务重资本属性，券商，券商一方面能够获取一方面能够获取跟投收益提高资金运用效率，另一方面也加大了业绩波动跟投收益提高资金运用效率，另一方面也加大了业绩波动。具体而言，目前主板明确保荐机构不需要强制跟投，但科创板和创业板均存在差异化的跟投制度。其中，创业板跟投与否取决于发行人盈利情况、企业性质、发行价格等因素，目前触发跟投的项目较少，而科创板强制要求保荐机构的相关子公司参与战略配售进行跟投。跟投比例为发行数量的 2%-5%，获配股份有 24个月限售期。这意味着券商一方面可以享受跟投带来的浮盈，另一方面也对券商的定价能力要求更高，若定价过高将承受浮亏。表表 4 各板块各板块跟投制度比较跟投制度比较 跟投要求跟投要求 主板主板 科创板科创板 创业板创业板 跟投跟投制度制度 不要求跟投 强制跟投强制跟投 仅针对下列情形之一进行跟投：（1）未盈利未盈利企业企业；（2）存在表决权差异安排企业存在表决权差异安排企业；（3）红筹企业红筹企业；（4）发行价格（或者发行价格区发行价格（或者发行价格区间上限）超过“四个值”。间上限）超过“四个值”。参与跟投参与跟投主体主体 -保荐人通过依法设立的另类投资子公司或者实际控制该保荐人的证券公司依法设立的另类投资子公司 保荐人相关子公司 跟投比例跟投比例 -首次公开发行证券数量首次公开发行证券数量 2%2%至至 5%5%（1）发行规模不足 10 亿元的，跟投比例为 5%，但不超过 4000 万元；（2）发行规模 10 亿元以上、不足 20 亿元的，跟投比例为 4%，但不超过 6000 万元；（3）发行规模 20 亿元以上、不足 50 亿元的，跟投比例为 3%，但不超过 1 亿元；（4）发行规模 50 亿元以上的，跟投比例为 2%，但不超过 10 亿元。限售期限售期 -自发行人首次公开发行并上市之日起 24 个月 资料来源：上交所，深交所，湘财证券研究所 0.00%0.50%1.00%1.50%2.00%2.50,0002,0003,0004,0005,0006,0007,0008,0009,00020122013201420152016201720182019202020212022保荐代表人数量占比从业人员比重0100200300400500600中信证券中信建投中金公司华泰证券海通证券民生证券国泰君安国信证券国金证券20222021 14 行业研究 敬请阅读末页之重要声明 2019-2021 年券商参与科创板跟投获得了较为可观的投资收益，期间浮盈分别为 26.1 亿、123.2 亿、122.8 亿。但 2022 年新股定价偏高，平均发行市盈率显著上升，叠加整体市场环境低迷，首日破发股票数量增加，从而导致券商跟投首次出现浮亏。图图 17 科创板科创板保荐机构保荐机构跟投浮盈跟投浮盈及收益率及收益率（亿元（亿元，%）资料来源：Wind，湘财证券研究所 注：跟投收益为当年浮盈或浮亏，收益率=当年浮盈/跟投金额，假设锁定期结束未出售 图图 18 科创板公司平均发行科创板公司平均发行 PE 及首日涨跌幅及首日涨跌幅 资料来源：Wind，湘财证券研究所 头部券商跟投收益颇丰，构筑资金壁垒。头部券商跟投收益颇丰，构筑资金壁垒。从上市券商情况来看，IPO 项目较多的头部券商在 19-21 年间获得了较高的跟投收益，不过 22 年基本都承受了浮亏。除了项目获取能力，跟投对券商资本实力的要求也比较高，19-22年中金、中信、建投的科创板 IPO 累计跟投金额分别达到 52 亿、43 亿、34亿，与中小券商拉开较大差距。-60%-40%-20%0 0%-150.0-100.0-50.0-50.0 100.0 150.02019202020212022跟投浮盈或浮亏（亿元）跟投收益率0 00000 0020304050607080902019202020212022平均发行PE首日收盘涨跌幅 15 行业研究 敬请阅读末页之重要声明 图图 19 上市券商科创板上市券商科创板跟投浮盈浮亏（单位：亿元）跟投浮盈浮亏（单位：亿元）资料来源：Wind，湘财证券研究所 注：跟投收益为当年浮盈或浮亏，假设锁定期结束未出售 此外，此外，新股新股定价定价市场化市场化程度程度提升，提升，投资者投资者更加更加关注公司价值关注公司价值，不仅考验，不仅考验券商的研究、定价及承销能力，券商的研究、定价及承销能力，而且而且由于由于新股破发概率上升、弃购新股破发概率上升、弃购数量数量增加增加，也加大了券商的包销压力也加大了券商的包销压力，对券商的资金实力要求进一步提高，对券商的资金实力要求进一步提高。2021 年以来，受新股定价新规及市场下行影响，投资者弃购增加，创业板和科创板 IPO 项目的包销金额大幅上升，形成券商的被动投资，而且明显高于主板。图图 20 各板块各板块 IPO 项目券商包销金额项目券商包销金额（单位：万元单位：万元）资料来源：Wind，湘财证券研究所 0102030405060-20-10010203040502019202020212022累计跟投金额（亿元）-50,000 100,000 150,000 200,000 250,000 300,000 350,000 400,000 450,000 500,000创业板科创板上证主板深证主板2019202020212022 16 行业研究 敬请阅读末页之重要声明 2.2 经纪业务：成交经纪业务：成交量增加量增加，融券范围扩大融券范围扩大 科创板和创业板科创板和创业板实行实行注册制后注册制后，I IPOPO 公司数量增加，公司数量增加，市场流通市值增加市场流通市值增加，换手率保持稳定，换手率保持稳定，成交量稳步提升。成交量稳步提升。2020 年以来沪深两市每月日均股基成交额保持在 1 万亿之上成为常态。图图 21 科创板科创板流通市值和换手率流通市值和换手率（亿元（亿元，%）资料来源：Wind，湘财证券研究所 图图 22 科创板每日成交金额科创板每日成交金额（亿元）（亿元）资料来源：Wind，湘财证券研究所 图图 23 沪深两市沪深两市每月日均每月日均股基成交额（亿元）股基成交额（亿元）资料来源：Wind，湘财证券研究所 两融规模一方面伴随市场交投活跃度而提升两融规模一方面伴随市场交投活跃度而提升；另一方面另一方面，注册制注册制优化融优化融资融券及转融通机制，资融券及转融通机制，扩大融券扩大融券券源范围券源范围，促进两融，促进两融及转融通及转融通业务发展。业务发展。注册制下首次公开发行的股票自上市首日起可作为融资融券的标�